GTA 6 Speculation & Discussion [Part 5]

[Len Lfc]

It's coming. Sooner than some think, later than others think. I'd imagine there's likely to be an announcement within the next 18 months or so.

[Americana]

26 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

It's coming. Sooner than some think, later than others think. I'd imagine there's likely to be an announcement within the next 18 months or so.

 

Yes, at least 36 months, I think.

[Patrizio]

39 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

It's coming. Sooner than some think, later than others think. I'd imagine there's likely to be an announcement within the next 18 months or so.

 

Or so...

 

That bloody phrase . I think it'll be October this year.

 

I'll still be checking here around March 23rd like an excitable kid though, ready for the next round of disappointment.

 

[Len Lfc]

1 minute ago, Patrizio said:

 

Or so...

 

That bloody phrase . I think it'll be October this year.

 

I'll still be checking here around March 23rd like an excitable kid though, ready for the next round of disappointment.

 

18 months just has a better ring to it than 20 months lol

What's with the March 23rd date, though?

[Dourvas]

1 hour ago, Len Lfc said:

It's coming. Sooner than some think, later than others think. I'd imagine there's likely to be an announcement within the next 18 months or so.

I can live with that idea... I always expect the worst so 18 months is more than acceptable. Would love something this year though. Maybe the trilogy.

[Len Lfc]

People just need reassurance that it's coming. I get it. But it's been so long, that at this point, it has to be 'soon'. We'll definitely hear about it by the end of 2022.

[Collibosher]

10 minutes ago, Dourvas said:

I Would love something this year though. 

 But we WILL get something this year, it was already announced!

[Patrizio]

48 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

18 months just has a better ring to it than 20 months lol

What's with the March 23rd date, though?

 I meant the "or so" bit!

 

Nothing. Clutching at straws. In my mind Rockstar have used late March in the past for a few things. I'm 99.9% nothing will happen until late October at the earliest.

[Finn_E]

3 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

People just need reassurance that it's coming. I get it. But it's been so long, that at this point, it has to be 'soon'. We'll definitely hear about it by the end of 2022.

Weirdly, i genuinely can't imagine it being announced. Not that I don't think it's going to be announced (of course it is) it's just that for so long it's been just speculation.

[Len Lfc]

2 minutes ago, Patrizio said:

 I meant the "or so" bit!

 

Nothing. Clutching at straws. In my mind Rockstar have used late March in the past for a few things. I'm 99.9% nothing will happen until late October at the earliest.

March is the most common month for announcements, from Rockstar. I think. So, it's either March or October. I just went with October, since it's when they announced their last two games. March 2020 was always a stretch. And if not for GTA V E&E and the rumoured Trilogy remaster, then March & October 2021 feel like a stretch, too.

 

Although considering they're just remasters, and VI would likely release 2 years later, anyway... I guess it's always possible they could announce it this year. I'm sticking with my prediction, until it's passed anyway.

[Patrizio]

Just now, Len Lfc said:

March is the most common month for announcements, from Rockstar. I think. So, it's either March or October. I just went with October, since it's when they announced their last two games. March 2020 was always a stretch. And if not for GTA V E&E and the rumoured Trilogy remaster, then March & October 2021 feel like a stretch, too.

 

Although considering they're just remasters, and VI would likely release 2 years later, anyway... I guess it's always possible they could announce it this year. I'm sticking with my prediction, until it's passed anyway.

 

I thought your prediction was always October 2021?

[Len Lfc]

Just now, Patrizio said:

 

I thought your prediction was always October 2021?

Well, Originally, it was October 2022. I very quickly adjusted to 2021, matching the 3 year gap between V & RDR2. It's only since the pandemic and the announcement of GTA V E&E that I felt like it may be 2022 after all.

[EGA_6]

I'm still sticking with an announcement in March-April and release 1.5 years after in October. Either 2022 announcement and 2023 release or 2023 announcement and 2024 release.

[Orthur]

1 minute ago, Len Lfc said:

3 year gap between V & RDR2

R★ takes more and more time between their games, what if the 3 year Announcement gap between GTA V and RDR2 is not the case with RDR2 and GTA VI? And it's something like a 4 year gap (between Announcements)?

 

Have you ever taken that into account?

[Len Lfc]

Just now, Orthur The Boah said:

R★ takes more and more time between their games, what if the 3 year Announcement gap between GTA V and RDR2 is not the case with RDR2 and GTA VI? And it's something like a 4 year gap (between Announcements)?

 

Have you ever taken that into account?

Yeah, that was my original reasoning. Plus the start of a new generation. New hardware, low install base, etc. In the end, after a while it started to become clear that wouldn't be as big of a deal as I thought.

Besides, I know they've been working on it since at least 2017. So it's already been a long time.

[Kerminator369]

i feel we get an announcement this year with a dummy date then a delay into early 2023

[Orthur]

8 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

it started to become clear that wouldn't be as big of a deal as I thought

How? I'd assume they'd need to work more because of the considerably way better hardware next gen offers, which means they'd work on a new engine(duh) for graphics and then more insane details which takes time.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Orthur The Boah

[Len Lfc]

1 minute ago, Orthur The Boah said:

How? I'd assume they'd need to work more because of the considerably way better hardware next gen offers, which means they'd work on a new engine(duh) for graphics and then more insane details which takes time.

Mark Cerny described how with PS5, they were back to PS1 standards of speeds getting up and running on new hardware. "Time to Triangle". It used to be the case that with each new generation it'd take a while to understand the new hardware/architecture. But with PS5 it takes about a month. And the consoles in general are very similar to last gen. So there's not really a huge learning cure (That I'm aware of)

 

 

In the case of install base... Well, it didn't stop GTA IV. And Rockstar are never going to beat GTA V day one sales, and they probably know it. Not unless they wait until the end of this generation, which they won't. GTA VI will sell because it will keep on selling, just like V did. However, gaming is larger than it was 8 - 10 years ago. So there are more people playing games, and GTA as a series has become a lot more poplar. So when it does release, it may well come close or even beat GTA V's opening week sales, regardless. Point being, I don't think it's a big issue, anymore.

[Dante De Niro]

6 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

And Rockstar are never going to beat GTA V day one sales

Man, i woudn't doubt that. GTA VI is one of the most hyped games in history and it hasn't even been announced yet, it's going to break pre-order sales for sure and there's a real chance that it will surpass GTA V day one

Edited March 2, 2021 by dantedenirodeniro

[Kris194]

10 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

And Rockstar are never going to beat GTA V day one sales, and they probably know it.

Never say never.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Kris194

[Razed-]

I am expecting some sort of big announcement in October during GTA III's 20th anniversary month. I remember we got the announcement for GTAV during GTA III's 10th anniversary week.

 

Looking forward to some new collectible merch as well

[Len Lfc]

1 minute ago, dantedenirodeniro said:

Man, i woudn't doubt that. GTA VI is one of the most hyped games in history and it wasn't even announced yet, it's going to break pre-order sales for sure and there's a real chance that it will surpass GTA V day one

It really just depends on when it releases. I don't doubt it, per se. It's just when GTA V released there were around 80 Million PS3's sold and also around 80 Million 360's. there were A LOT of people to sell to. If GTA VI releases in 2023, I just don't think there'd be enough Xbox Series X|S or PS5's sold to make those numbers. There's already a shortage of consoles. By the time VI releases it'll be fine. But still... that's a lot of consoles to sell.

3 minutes ago, Razed- said:

I am expecting some sort of big announcement in October during GTA III's 20th anniversary month. I remember we got the announcement for GTAV during GTA III's 10th anniversary week.

 

Looking forward to some new collectible merch as well

This was also part of my reasoning. It's in my thread 

[Dante De Niro]

Just now, Len Lfc said:

It really just depends on when it releases. I don't doubt it, per se. It's just when GTA V released there were around 80 Million PS3's sold and also around 80 Million 360's. there were A LOT of people to sell to. If GTA VI releases in 2023, I just don't think there'd be enough Xbox Series X|S or PS5's sold to make those numbers. There's already a shortage of consoles. By the time VI releases it'll be fine. But still... that's a lot of consoles to sell.

Man, GTA got such a powerful name on nowadays that I think that a GTA VI release would cause a boom on PS5 and XSX sales

[Kris194]

33 minutes ago, Orthur The Boah said:

R★ takes more and more time between their games, what if the 3 year Announcement gap between GTA V and RDR2 is not the case with RDR2 and GTA VI? And it's something like a 4 year gap (between Announcements)?

 

Have you ever taken that into account?

We already know, that it's not 3 years gap, RDR II was announced in 2016. By the way, people need to consider, that it's way harder to make high quality games from home.

[Dr. Ugs]

3 minutes ago, dantedenirodeniro said:

GTA VI release would cause a boom on PS5 and XSX sales

Thats but first we gotta wait for these consoles to be available at your local Walmart

[bakerach]

2 hours ago, Len Lfc said:

It's coming. Sooner than some think, later than others think. I'd imagine there's likely to be an announcement within the next 18 months or so.

By the end of the year.  Quote me on that.

[Dante De Niro]

 

5 minutes ago, Kris194 said:

it's way harder to make high quality games from home.

Minecraft was made in a basement by just one swedish guy, so yeah, Rockstar got no excuses 

[bakerach]

18 hours ago, Volatollotalov said:

 

I'm not suggesting it will be another Cyberpunk-style gigadisaster, and I do agree that if you have to choose a studio to rely on for high standards of AAA quality then Rockstar is still (usually) one of the safest bets.

 

That doesn't mean that it isn't without huge risk. It's an investment of hundreds of millions of dollars, years of work and re-work, going out into a games market that almost exponentially expects everything to be bigger and better and more impressive. I don't think anyone here wants to see it go wrong of course, but also the stakes have never been higher in all kinds of ways.

 

There is a near-zero chance that GTA VI won't be in the top 5 best selling games of all time within a short window of its release.  You can guarantee that the user base for the new consoles will double between the game's announcement and its release.

[Patrizio]

54 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

Well, Originally, it was October 2022. I very quickly adjusted to 2021, matching the 3 year gap between V & RDR2. It's only since the pandemic and the announcement of GTA V E&E that I felt like it may be 2022 after all.

 

Ah fair enough. No announcement until Oct '22? Christ that's depressing. Only for then 1.5-2 years before release. The expectation for GTA VI by then would be equally incredibly high and incredibly low.

[Len Lfc]

1 minute ago, Patrizio said:

 

Ah fair enough. No announcement until Oct '22? Christ that's depressing. Only for then 1.5-2 years before release. The expectation for GTA VI by then would be equally incredibly high and incredibly low.

My 'predictions' are typically worst case scenario. Overshoot and be pleasantly surprised, rather than undershoot and be disappointed.