GTA 6 Speculation & Discussion [Part 4]

[Kris194]

31 minutes ago, RichWalterWhite said:

And of course it's also important, that there won't be something like the rumored XBox Series S which would limit all next gen titles since they also would have to be playable on low-end-next-gen..

I wouldn't be so sure about that, yet. If they would like to release it they would probably announce it on their next event along with XSX price.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Kris194

[Smart speculation1]

4 minutes ago, GR7 said:

 

Why wouldn't an initial target base of 4 console not sound realistic? 4 consoles make more money than 2. That's the bottom line lol 

If the game is set to release any time after 2022 it will only be on next gen. 

[Ponsonby]

Didn't read this thread for about 24 hours because of my birthday. Just spent more than an hour catching up. Holy F sh*t. What a rollercoaster.

[Jason]

Just now, GR7 said:

Why wouldn't a initial target base of 4 console not sound realistic? 4 consoles make more money than 2. That's the bottom line lol 

Because it's not simply four consoles, it's two consoles split into four across different generations. There are people who own say a PS5 who also own a PS4, so it's not PS5 + PS4 install base that GTA VI would be getting marketed to. Those people aren't really the issue though obviously, a PS5 owner will buy GTA VI if he/she wants it. The problem is the people who don't own a PS5 or XSX and don't want to buy GTA VI on a console that's out dated or one that they plan on replacing soon - either with cross gen progression and forward compatibility patches, many will wait to experience it on the new more powerful consoles. You can't just lump all the owners together and say that's who they can sell the game to because it's not really case and history has shown us that, again, current gen sales start to tank once a new console generation releases.

 

4 minutes ago, GR7 said:

We're stuck between two sh*t possibilities but those are the only two I see. Release earlier and be cross gen?..Or release waay later when the next gen numbers are acceptable.

Option 3: Release it early in the generation and rely on the games legs to sell it. GTA in particular is fairly unique in this area, it sells by the millions until the next game launches pretty much - just look at how GTA V hasn't dropped out of NPD's top 10 charts since it launched in 2013. So you'd hurt your launch sales, maybe not get the big records, but long term the game would still become one of the best selling games of all time with no real effort.

[GR7]

2 minutes ago, Smart speculation1 said:

If the game is set to release any time after 2022 it will only be on next gen. 

Yup 2023 is the earliest I could see a next gen only GTAVI happening..But clearly none of us want that

[Ponsonby]

To be honest I wouldn't buy a new console for any game, but GTA is an exception to the rule.

[Zapper]

@Yan2295 I guess Zelnick phone spanked Schreier to delete his childish, moronic tweet.

[Leonid37]

Schraer isn't just Schraer anymore, he's f*cking Bloomberg. Famous Analytics with the announcement of long-known information in the vaguest text

Edited May 27, 2020 by Raskalov

[MojoGamer]

10 minutes ago, Ponsonby said:

To be honest I wouldn't buy a new console for any game, but GTA is an exception to the rule.

This is why Sony has a timed exclusive with Rockstargames next GTA game.

Haters will hate

[Ponsonby]

Just now, MojoGamer said:

This is why Sony has a timed exclusive with Rockstargames next GTA game.

Haters will hate

Would be way to expensive for Sony to pull off. They'd have to pay for all of the missed sales on xBox, at least.

[pingli]

Just now, Ponsonby said:

Would be way to expensive for Sony to pull off. They'd have to pay for all of the missed sales on xBox, at least.

I mean Sony was able to pay R* to make 2 games exclusive  for PSP and PS2 back in the day.

[Ponsonby]

Just now, Pingley said:

I mean Sony was able to pay R* to make 2 games exclusive  for PSP and PS2 back in the day.

If you compare both R* and Sony back to theirselves in '07, one has had a lot more of percentage growth. And by a lot... I mean a lot.

[Zapper]

2 hours ago, Kirsty said:

Jason GTANet > Jason Schreier

 

Sorry we don't pay as much as Bloomberg, though.

Just add a CAREERS option in GTANet. That'd be more than enough to bankrupt Bloomberg.

[pingli]

Just now, Ponsonby said:

If you compare both R* and Sony back to theirselves in '07, one has had a lot more of percentage growth. And by a lot... I mean a lot.

I am aware. Guess time will tell

 

 

[Ponsonby]

Just now, Pingley said:

I am aware. Guess time will tell

 

 

I'd say common sense already tells in this case...

[Whatsyourname]

Some game companies will be shown at the Playstation event. Will Rockstar Games be one of these ? What do you think ?

[Lukas2580]

5 minutes ago, Whatsyourname said:

Some game companies will be shown at the Playstation event. Will Rockstar Games be one of these ? What do you think ?

only if sony has the marketing rights like they did on RDR2

[GR7]

58 minutes ago, Jason said:

Because it's not simply four consoles, it's two consoles split into four across different generations. There are people who own say a PS5 who also own a PS4, so it's not PS5 + PS4 install base that GTA VI would be getting marketed to. Those people aren't really the issue though obviously, a PS5 owner will buy GTA VI if he/she wants it. The problem is the people who don't own a PS5 or XSX and don't want to buy GTA VI on a console that's out dated or one that they plan on replacing soon - either with cross gen progression and forward compatibility patches, many will wait to experience it on the new more powerful consoles. You can't just lump all the owners together and say that's who they can sell the game to because it's not really case and history has shown us that, again, current gen sales start to tank once a new console generation releases.

 

Option 3: Release it early in the generation and rely on the games legs to sell it. GTA in particular is fairly unique in this area, it sells by the millions until the next game launches pretty much - just look at how GTA V hasn't dropped out of NPD's top 10 charts since it launched in 2013. So you'd hurt your launch sales, maybe not get the big records, but long term the game would still become one of the best selling games of all time with no real effort.

I don't think anyone wants to play the inferior version of anything but life kind of forces people to. We might be privileged enough to be able to aim for the best, but the harsh reality is next gen consoles are a distant purchase for allot of people whether they save or not.

 

If you knew it would take you months or worse to save for shiny new hardware. Could you honestly say you'd have the willpower to ignore all the GTAVI hype until then? GTA is like 1/10th the price of a console. If anything buying the one game you know will make waiting the time it will take to save a hell of allot easier seems like a no brainier lol.

 

The fact that more games will be backwards compatible is a good point. Only a selection of games will be backwards compatablie on PS5 however, so it will likely play out very similar to the XB1 360 backward compatible games. Rockstar know they can get away with making people triple dip for one game if they want, so i'm sure a cross gen GTAVI wouldn't be on that list lol.

 

Yeah true that is an option 3, but it's the option that holds the least amount of glory for Rockstar and TT2. An early gen release won't make a billion in 3 days and break numerous sales records like GTAV did. That's the option I would like the most but when your biggest once every generation franchise is getting ready to release. Making the most amount of money possible will obviously be the one and only goal that matters.

Edited May 27, 2020 by GR7

[ROCKSTAR MANIC]

11 minutes ago, Whatsyourname said:

Some game companies will be shown at the Playstation event. Will Rockstar Games be one of these ? What do you think ?

I dont think so. Some of these events I've seen in the past use the ol bait & switch  by promoting dev companies as a way to entice people to watch or attend the shows that those companies never actually attend the show. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by ROCKSTAR MANIC

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, GR7 said:

If you knew it would take you months or worse to save for shiny new hardware. Could you honestly say you'd have the willpower to ignore all the GTAVI hype until then? GTA is like 1/10th the price of a console. If anything buying the one game you know will make the time it will take to save a hell of allot easier seems like a no brainier lol.

 

The fact that more games will be backwards compatible is a good point. However only a selection of games will be backwards compatablie on PS5 and with Rockstar knowing they can get away with making people triple dip for one game if they want, I'm sure a cross gen GTAVI wouldn't be on that list lol.

One of these sentences dismisses the idea of people waiting til they can afford the next-gen cosoles, the other reinforces the idea by Rockstar not allowing cross-gen (which I doubt even they would do, lol), which would make a lot of people wait.

 

Again, game sales just tank typically for last gen game sales when a new console is out, it's happened in the past. It'd be a lot of work as well to make a version of the game that'd have basically no long term legs and would have to be dropped pretty quickly when it comes to online support - like GTAO current gen and other games of a similar ilk that launched on 360/PS3 and also PS4/XB1. It'd probably just be beneficial to them and the game, particularly GTAO2, to forgo a current gen release. Lose some launch sales maybe but it will put the game in a much better position for the long term when it comes to support for GTAO2.

 

My guess is we'll see the game in the first three years of the generation and they'll forget about the records, the game will sell gangbusters still day one and continue to sell by the millions for years to come. They'll probably have another big project lined up towards the end of the generation as well if I had to guess, I don't think they'll go an entire generation with just 1 brand new release again but who really knows on that one.

[Len Lfc]

2 hours ago, Jason said:

If it releases in 2021 I doubt it'll be cross-gen. Last gen sales plummet when new consoles come out and while things are a bit different now versus the last generation swap, I doubt that'll change all that much.

 

That PS4/XB1 install base looks amazing on paper but once we're a year or two into the new generation it's really not. Just because many will still own their PS4/XB1's doesn't mean they want to buy games on them.

I have to disagree with you, there. 2 years, yeah, perhaps. But after the first 12 months, it's not too different. 

The whole cross gen vs next gen exclusive debate is something that we all argue over, and every time there are like a dozen different reasons for and against. If install base mattered, why was GTA IV next gen exclusive just over 2 years into that gen? Then on the other hand, why didn't they release GTA V on X1 & PS4 only? Both have their reasons, GTA IV was dependent on the new tech, and GTA V had been built for the 360 & PS3 years before next gen was defined. Who's to say what GTA VI's situation is?

 

I have my views, that GTA VI will be next gen only. And like GTA IV, will require the next gen hardware. But I just find this debate, at this point, kinda' tiresome.

Mystic did a video on why people are still playing on PS3 in 2020. Even though I belive the next gen adoption rate will be higher this time, than last. Most people will still be playing on PS4/X1 for 2 to 3 years.

 

[mussefar03]

Guys... it's time

 

[Auditore]

Still think 2023 is a reasonable date.

Gta 6 releasing in 2022 would be some wild dreams sh*t.

Just now, mussefar03 said:

Guys... it's time

 

Why would rockstar need to announce their new game in a conference?

They avoided those through all of red dead 2 marketing campaign

[mussefar03]

2 minutes ago, Auditore said:

Still think 2023 is a reasonable date.

Gta 6 releasing in 2022 would be some wild dreams sh*t.

Why would rockstar need to announce their new game in a conference?

They avoided those through all of red dead 2 marketing campaign

Because Rockstar doesn't need Sony. Sony needs Rockstar.

[GR7]

42 minutes ago, Jason said:

One of these sentences dismisses the idea of people waiting til they can afford the next-gen cosoles, the other reinforces the idea by Rockstar not allowing cross-gen (which I doubt even they would do, lol), which would make a lot of people wait.

 

Again, game sales just tank typically for last gen game sales when a new console is out, it's happened in the past. It'd be a lot of work as well to make a version of the game that'd have basically no long term legs and would have to be dropped pretty quickly when it comes to online support - like GTAO current gen and other games of a similar ilk that launched on 360/PS3 and also PS4/XB1. It'd probably just be beneficial to them and the game, particularly GTAO2, to forgo a current gen release. Lose some launch sales maybe but it will put the game in a much better position for the long term when it comes to support for GTAO2.

 

My guess is we'll see the game in the first three years of the generation and they'll forget about the records, the game will sell gangbusters still day one and continue to sell by the millions for years to come. They'll probably have another big project lined up towards the end of the generation as well if I had to guess, I don't think they'll go an entire generation with just 1 brand new release again but who really knows on that one.

It doesn't dismiss it. I'm questioning who would honestly not buy a current gen GTAVI while they wait months to play the superior version? Not everyone has that kind of willpower, which is why double dipping is a thing. You could buy GTAVI and also save for a console, they aren't mutually exclusive lol.

 

You misunderstood me, this list I was talking about relates to the list of backward compatible games. Like I said they know they could get people to double or even triple dip so why would they make a current gen version of GTAVI backwards compatible when they could easily just get people to buy a next generation version aswell? Even if they offered some kind of upgrade scheme if you had the current gen version they're still making more money off you.

 

Yes for the average game, sales will drop. GTA is not the average game though. It's essentially become the new Mario Bros. It will sell well wherever it lands. GTAO2 support is a fair concern....but that's pretty much what they did with the PS3/360 versions of GTAO1. After a year they finally released everything they promised in the trailer and then it got swept to the side for the current gen version. Now that I think about it that's another good incentive to get people to double dip  lol. 

 

I think we'll get another Rockstar game or 2 but as for GTA? that's looking like a one and done for the generation. I'd hope they wouldn't worry about the not breaking their own records because the game will do well regardless. Being the sequel to currently the biggest game franchise makes it seem like it would be hard to ignore though.

 

Maybe the next game isn't GTAVI at all and ends up being another spinoff. Not having the pressure of being a numbered title might ease the pressure. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by GR7

[sometimesIwork4goverment]

I dont think gta vi is going to be next-gen only ps4 sold 106 million units 

[Auditore]

2 minutes ago, mussefar03 said:

Because Rockstar doesn't need Sony. Sony needs Rockstar.

Well,yeah but that was also true back in 2016 but rockstar still went their own way and didnt announce it in a sony event.

Now i could see a red dead 2/gta 5 remaster for ps5 during a sony conference,when gta came to the ps4 they announced it at sony's e3 event

Edited May 27, 2020 by Auditore

[Smart speculation1]

What are the chances they remaster/technically enhance GTA V for next gen consoles to tie us over until GTA VI (such a long wait)... R* did mention a few surprise this year and T2 said something about them enhancing both games. Obviously I know those “surprises” could easily just be like DLC stuff. 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Smart speculation1

[Whatsyourname]

4 minutes ago, Auditore said:

Well,yeah but that was also true back in 2016 but rockstar still went their own way and didnt announce it in a sony event.

Now i could see a red dead 2/gta 5 remaster for ps5 during a sony conference,when gta came to the ps4 they announced it at sony's e3 event

I think the same will happen for RDR2.

[Auditore]

5 minutes ago, sometimesIwork4goverment said:

I dont think gta vi is going to be next-gen only ps4 sold 106 million units 

Gta 4 released 3 years after next gen arrived,it was a huge sucess