GTA 6 Speculation & Discussion

[C-h-a-r-l-y]

9 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

Spoiler

But no, seriously. I used to think and believe that. But in reality, they're actually not that unpredictable. After GTA V and RDR2, both being announced in mid-late October, on Tuesdays. being delayed and the marketing cycle/schedule being largely the same. Current Rockstar are actually fairly predictable. Until they're not. So, you're kinda' half right, but not really, but anything can change lol

But games are getting bigger, more advanced and more ambitious. Where it may have taken Rockstar 5 years to make a game on PS4. Theoretically it may take them 4 years on PS5. Except that's not how it works, as they're not making the same game. Games get bigger and a lot more ambitious. Introducing new technology, the script may get larger, more advanced AI and NPC's, etc etc. Sure, now they have more employees, but they're also doing more work. So it scales. It's not as simple as "Next gen is easier so games will come faster" If the game is bigger, and they have more work to do on it then it may take the exact same amount of time. Maybe longer.

It´s not only that. The AI will be able to do a lot more, so it gets easier to make a bigger game in less time, even with less employees. In the end it´s probably possible that a normal person will be able to make his own game, with the benefit from the more advanced AI. The AI will revolutionize the way video games are developed and played, there will be no Corporations making games for a fanbase anymore in the not so distance future.:)

Edited January 18, 2020 by Jon Dohnson

[Kris194]

2 minutes ago, Jon Dohnson said:

It´s not only that. The AI will be able to do a lot more, so it gets easier to make a bigger game in less time, even with less employees. In the end it´s probably possible that a normal person will be able to make his own game, with the benefit from the more advanced AI. The AI will revolutionize the way video games are developed and played, there will be no Corporations making games for a fanbase anymore in the not so distance future.:)

 

You have clearly no idea about game development and you seem to live in sci-fi world. Not to mention lack of knowledge about AI and machine learning.

Edited January 18, 2020 by Kris194

[C-h-a-r-l-y]

Just now, Kris194 said:

You have clearly no idea about game development and you seem to live in sci-fi world.

There is another possibilty. You are not informed about the possibilities through artificial intelligence.;)

[Jakub1904]

2 minutes ago, Jon Dohnson said:

It´s not only that. The AI will be able to do a lot more, so it gets easier to make a bigger game in less time, even with less employees. In the end it´s probably possible that a normal person will be able to make his own game, with the benefit from the more advanced AI. The AI will revolutionize the way video games are developed and played, there will be no Corporations making games for a fanbase anymore in the not so distance future.:)

Sorry, but you obviously have no idea about the current state of AI. What you are talking about is at least decades away.

[Len Lfc]

4 minutes ago, Jon Dohnson said:

The AI will be able to do a lot more, so it gets easier to make a bigger game in less time

Rockstars development times with the games this past decade suggest otherwise. At this point, with those other comments. You have to be intentionally trolling or just plain ignorant and oblivious. 

[Kris194]

Just now, Jon Dohnson said:

There is another possibilty. You are not informed about the possibilities through artificial intelligence.;)

AI of what? 2100?

[Len Lfc]

Just now, Kris194 said:

AI of what? 2100?

In the future, developers will be AI constructs that don't need to sleep or eat, and can crunch 24/7. Naturally, this leads to the AI and machine revolution, leading to our extinction as a species. Turns out, the media was right. Video games will kill us all. 

[C-h-a-r-l-y]

Just now, Jakub1904 said:

Sorry, but you obviously have no idea about the current state of AI. What you are talking about is at least decades away.

NOPE. Maybe you are the one who have no idea.

 

It´s not a secret that the AI is even testing games searching for bugs in the near future, before they get released. It´s not science fiction, but a fact.

10 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

Rockstars development times with the games this past decade suggest otherwise. At this point, with those other comments. You have to be intentionally trolling or just plain ignorant and oblivious. 

Maybe you are the troll. It´s a fact. The technology is far more advanced than people know. It´s all about money and power. This will change in the future, if the knowledge gets released officially.

13 minutes ago, Kris194 said:

AI of what? 2100?

No. The artificial intelligence develops exponentially.

[Jakub1904]

5 minutes ago, Jon Dohnson said:

NOPE. Maybe you are the one who have no idea.

 

It´s not a secret that the AI is even testing games searching for bugs in the near future, before they get released. It´s not science fiction, but a fact.

Maybe you are the troll. It´s a fact. The technology is far more advanced than people know. It´s all about money and power. This will change in the future, if the knowledge gets released officially.

No. The artificial intelligence develops exponentially.

Yeah, I actually study AI, but I have no idea. As I said, AI could maybe help game development in the future, but it's going to take a lot of time until it reaches "real" game development studios like R*. That is what matters here, as the discussion was about R* taking longer to develop their games. It is completely irrelevant when talking about GTA 6 (assuming it's their next game) and I think it won't matter much even during the development of their next big game after GTA 6, whatever it's going to be.

 

[C-h-a-r-l-y]

2 minutes ago, Jakub1904 said:

Yeah, I actually study AI, but I have no idea. As I said, AI could maybe help game development in the future, but it's going to take a lot of time until it reaches "real" game development studios like R*. That is what matters here, as the discussion was about R* taking longer to develop their games. It is completely irrelevant when talking about GTA 6 (assuming it's their next game) and I think it won't matter much even during the development of their next big game after GTA 6, whatever it's going to be.

 

And what did i said?

 

You studied and you are not able to read properly?

 

 

[Jakub1904]

1 minute ago, Jon Dohnson said:

And what did i said?

 

You studied and you are not able to read properly?

 

 

You were saying it's going to happen in the not so distant future, which is false. The discussion was about R* taking longer to develop their games NOW, not in 30+ years. 

Honestly, I am also starting to think you are just trolling or you are completely ignorant, so I am not going to bother with responding anymore. 

 

 

[SMC TBane]

We need FAITH!..

[MrPhillips]

3 hours ago, Jon Dohnson said:

Announcement 2020

Release 2021

More like announcement 2021

Release 2023

[Kris194]

1 hour ago, Jakub1904 said:

Sorry, but you obviously have no idea about the current state of AI. What you are talking about is at least decades away.

He was delusional for quite long time, now he just got high.

1 hour ago, Jon Dohnson said:

NOPE. Maybe you are the one who have no idea.

 

It´s not a secret that the AI is even testing games searching for bugs in the near future, before they get released. It´s not science fiction, but a fact.

Maybe you are the troll. It´s a fact. The technology is far more advanced than people know. It´s all about money and power. This will change in the future, if the knowledge gets released officially.

No. The artificial intelligence develops exponentially.

You just proved, that you don't see difference between asset creation and analyzing data. Go and say T2 CEO and CFO, that they are bunch of idiots and that they spends hundreds of millions of $ for nothing because AI can do it for free or almost free...

Edited January 18, 2020 by Kris194

[Jason]

3 hours ago, Jon Dohnson said:

Sure. Next Gen Release is 2020.

 

But an GTA6 Announcement is years away? They will release it on PS6 then.lol

 

You can´t be serious.

 

Announcement 2020

Release 2021

The hell are you on about, man?

 

Years away can mean 2-3 years, I don't know why you've assumed it meant 7-10. The userbase within the first year of a new console is not huge and Rockstar will likely want to release GTA VI when it has the potential to sell a ton of copies on day 1.

 

GTAO's success throughout the entire generation has likely given them confidence that they can release it early in the generation and the game will thrive and top the sales charts until the end of the generation but I don't see that as enough reasoning that Rockstar would be happy to launch GTA VI in a time when there's only 10-20 million new consoles out there. My guess a year or two ago was a surprise 2020 release to break the GTA V sales records but that aint happening now so I'd say 2022-2023 for the release. I'd be glad to be wrong but Take-Two and Rockstar's love of making these games a huge cultural event and Take-Two's love of gloating about Rockstar breaking sales records makes me think we have zero chance of getting GTA VI in 2021.

[Kris194]

36 minutes ago, Jason said:

The hell are you on about, man?

 

Years away can mean 2-3 years, I don't know why you've assumed it meant 7-10. The userbase within the first year of a new console is not huge and Rockstar will likely want to release GTA VI when it has the potential to sell a ton of copies on day 1.

I said it once, I can say it again. Rockstar will definitely need to sell about 10 mln copies to break even and investors will expect as fastest return of investment as possible. They care mostly about early sales, not lifetime sales, "they want their money back as soon as possible".

Edited January 18, 2020 by Kris194

[iPeluche]

23 minutes ago, Jason said:

The hell are you on about, man?

 

Years away can mean 2-3 years, I don't know why you've assumed it meant 7-10. The userbase within the first year of a new console is not huge and Rockstar will likely want to release GTA VI when it has the potential to sell a ton of copies on day 1.

 

GTAO's success throughout the entire generation has likely given them confidence that they can release it early in the generation and the game will thrive and top the sales charts until the end of the generation but I don't see that as enough reasoning that Rockstar would be happy to launch GTA VI in a time when there's only 10-20 million new consoles out there. My guess a year or two ago was a surprise 2020 release to break the GTA V sales records but that aint happening now so I'd say 2022-2023 for the release. I'd be glad to be wrong but Take-Two and Rockstar's love of making these games a huge cultural event and Take-Two's love of gloating about Rockstar breaking sales records makes me think we have zero chance of getting GTA VI in 2021.

Like i say previously. If R* want to take full advantage of a GTA:O2 with GTA VI, they have to release it between end 2020 at the earliest and early 2022 at the later. After, it will be too late as generation of consoles will not long last like PS3 and PS4.

 

R* didn’t get the chance to release a GTA taking full advantage of PS4 / One due to GTA 5 remastered. With the success of GTA:O, they learned that they don’t need to make this a cross-gen title.

 

By releasing GTA VI at the beginning of generation, they will make huge money. In fact, if Sony really secured that exclusivity thing for 1 month or 6 months, GTA VI is the only game that can sell consoles for them. And think about that money they are gonna make right after with GTA:O2...

 

It’s been already 7 year now from original GTA 5 on PS3 / 360. They have to move on and release their next project assuming it’s GTA 6.

 

Don’t forget that the content we got on GTA:O was scheduled since the beginning as it was part of the cutted Story DLC. In fact, it’s a very small team that work on GTA:O right now and i don’t think they create content right now except for Guns or Vehicles that can be re-used for GTA 6.

[thecoolfattykid]

My best guess is that there will be announcement this year sometime slated for next year release and then next year they'll delay to 2022.

[Kris194]

They never announced GTA in the same year in which consoles have been released. Not even with GTA III and that was dirty cheap to make.

[Jason]

8 minutes ago, iPeluche said:

After, it will be too late as generation of consoles will not long last like PS3 and PS4.

Speculative, it's possible that the generation after the PS5 and Xbox Series X will be different but if it is different I don't think it'd have a negative impact on GTA VI sales, or any game sales for that matter. Either the next-gen consoles last 6-7 years as has become standard or console makers move towards a constantly improving box, either modular or by offering new, more powerful consoles every 2-3 years and game developers support something like the 2-3 latest versions of these consoles for their games. Basically saying that if Sony launched a PS5 2023 that is more powerful than the PS5 2020 that's out next year, all PS5 games released on the 2023 console would still work on the 2020.

 

Eitherway, GTA VI will sell more copies day 1 if it's released in 2023 than it would if it's released in 2022. I do think that 2022 is more likely to be the year though, four years between RDR2 and VI, seems right.

[SMC TBane]

11 minutes ago, thecoolfattykid said:

My best guess is that there will be announcement this year sometime slated for next year release and then next year they'll delay to 2022.

Same here.

 

Announchement 2020

Release 2021 but got classic R* delayed by 2022.

[Len Lfc]

9 minutes ago, Jason said:

Basically saying that if Sony launched a PS5 2023 that is more powerful than the PS5 2020 that's out next year, all PS5 games released on the 2023 console would still work on the 2020.

 

Probably easier to just use PS5 Pro as an example lol

[Kris194]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

Speculative, it's possible that the generation after the PS5 and Xbox Series X will be different but if it is different I don't think it'd have a negative impact on GTA VI sales, or any game sales for that matter. Either the next-gen consoles last 6-7 years as has become standard or console makers move towards a constantly improving box, either modular or by offering new, more powerful consoles every 2-3 years and game developers support something like the 2-3 latest versions of these consoles for their games. Basically saying that if Sony launched a PS5 2023 that is more powerful than the PS5 2020 that's out next year, all PS5 games released on the 2023 console would still work on the 2020.

 

Eitherway, GTA VI will sell more copies day 1 if it's released in 2023 than it would if it's released in 2022. I do think that 2022 is more likely to be the year though, four years between RDR2 and VI, seems right.

I suspect, that both, T2 and investors will expect 20 mln copies shipped in about one week with RDR 2 17 mln copies sold in less than two weeks. Smaller install base doesn't change anything, money is money.

[Len Lfc]

1 minute ago, Kris194 said:

I suspect, that both, T2 and investors will expect 20 mln copies shipped in about one week with RDR 2 17 mln copies sold in less than two weeks. Smaller install base doesn't change anything, money is money.

It does change a bit, depending on when it's released. If it's early in the console cycle, 20M units might be too much. 17M after 5 years is manageable. However, GTA VI will drive console sales further, as it's one of the few titles that are 'worth buying a console for'.

[Jason]

8 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

Probably easier to just use PS5 Pro as an example lol

Yea probably but I avoided it because ultimately the Pro and One X never extended the life of the generation, where as these theoretical new consoles would completely change the way console generations happen.

 

But yea what with both Sony and MS going on and on about power more and more, often because gamers demand it I suspect, as well as the success of the Pro and X, I think it's pretty possible that we may not get a clearly defined end to the next console generation like we have next year with this generation. I think it's possible you may just reach a point where your PlayStation or Xbox may stop supporting the latest games, forcing you to pick from say the latest PS/Xbox with all the power or one a few years old with less power for cheaper that'll do you for another 2-3 years.

 

6 minutes ago, Kris194 said:

I suspect, that both, T2 and investors will expect 20 mln copies shipped in about one week with RDR 2 17 mln copies sold in less than two weeks. Smaller install base doesn't change anything, money is money.

It aint 2010 anymore, over 50% of all game sales are now digital and that figure is continuing to grow every single year. In the UK, 80% of all game sales are digital. Can't ship tonnes of copies to retailers to sell when less and less people are buying via retail. Not that I think game retailers would overstock on copies when there were only a limited amount of consoles out there in the wild anyway, even for a GTA.

Edited January 18, 2020 by Jason

[Gentlebreeze]

I have a visit to NY soon then to Miami and Puerto Rico so I plan on taking loads of photos and 3d modeling them to get a feel of the vibe Rockstar gents may currently be tackling.

[Len Lfc]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

Yea probably but I avoided it because ultimately the Pro and One X never extended the life of the generation, where as these theoretical new consoles would completely change the way console generations happen.

 

But yea what with both Sony and MS going on and on about power more and more, often because gamers demand it I suspect, as well as the success of the Pro and X, I think it's pretty possible that we may not get a clearly defined end to the next console generation like we have next year with this generation. I think it's possible you may just reach a point where your PlayStation or Xbox may stop supporting the latest games, forcing you to pick from say the latest PS/Xbox with all the power or one a few years old with less power for cheaper that'll do you for another 2-3 years.

I think the Pro and 1X was more because the consoles were underpowered at launch. Sure, they were great at the time. But not even the PS4, which was more powerful than the Xbox One, could do 1080p in most games. Battlefield 4 was 900p on PS4, and only 720p on Xbox one. Sure, they ran at 60fps, and had the higher player count and map size of PC. But overall, the consoles were just underwhelming. The problem was they were so much better than the previous generation, that they seemed better than they were. So far, it seems as though the upcoming generation won't be as bad, in this regard. I'd still expect upgraded models, mid gen, though.

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

I think the Pro and 1X was more because the consoles were underpowered at launch. Sure, they were great at the time. But not even the PS4, which was more powerful than the Xbox One, could do 1080p in most games. Battlefield 4 was 900p on PS4, and only 720p on Xbox one. Sure, they ran at 60fps, and had the higher player count and map size of PC. But overall, the consoles were just underwhelming. The problem was they were so much better than the previous generation, that they seemed better than they were. So far, it seems as though the upcoming generation won't be as bad, in this regard. I'd still expect upgraded models, mid gen, though.

Aye, we'll get enhanced consoles no doubt, the question is will they be like the Pro and One X or like the the theoretical consoles I mentioned above. My guess is that they'll just be another Pro/One X but I do think we'll get that phone like release model for consoles at some point but next-gen might be a bit too soon for them to rip up the old model like that, maybe.

[Len Lfc]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

Aye, we'll get enhanced consoles no doubt, the question is will they be like the Pro and One X or like the the theoretical consoles I mentioned above. My guess is that they'll just be another Pro/One X but I do think we'll get that phone like release model for consoles at some point but next-gen might be a bit too soon for them to rip up the old model like that, maybe.

The only problem with a phone model is that it might not give devs enough time to work on a game, if the hardware is constantly changing. I guess it kinda' is already (2013, 2016/17 & 2020) so I don't know. I feel like Microsoft is more likely to be more iterative, whereas Sony prefer dedicated generations, as they said a while ago. Although, things can change. Even now, it's already pretty much confirmed that there will be an Xbox Series S, which is likely to be the Lockhart model. Going forward, the next gen is just called 'Xbox', so the series will be what changes.

 

Having said all this, we'll probably be wrong, because we're just the fans, not the people making the games or consoles lol

[Jason]

35 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

The only problem with a phone model is that it might not give devs enough time to work on a game, if the hardware is constantly changing.

Yea this is a potential problem for sure. You could point at PC and say it works there, but only if you point at the games with good optimisation cause there's many games that aint optimised very well, even AAA games. If they're also having to develop games for what could be 3-4 different Playstations or 3-4 different Xbox's with various power levels then you can also run into the problem of these less powerful versions holding games back. Lockhart, if it's real which it seems to be, will tell us a lot on how developers can handle that I think.

 

37 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

Having said all this, we'll probably be wrong, because we're just the fans, not the people making the games or consoles lol

Yep lol. I think we look at as black and white a lot when in reality studios will adapt to changes in the industry too. Things we might see as good things could be bad, things we see as potentially bad could be good and all that. And of course, they'll no doubt have stuff up their sleeves that we didn't expect or predict. It's going to a really interesting generation from a hardware point of view IMO, what with these Pro 2/Series X v2 (w/e they call them) consoles that we know will happen again now rather than not predicting it 7 years ago, VR too will play a part I imagine as the generation goes on.