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metoxys

Testing different Inside Track (horse racing) betting strategies

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metoxys

The main basis behind betting strategy, the way I see it, is that you are able to "reroll" the odds by backing out of the computer and getting in again. If this is patched, this post is less relevant because you can't really "pick" a strategy to go with.

 

So, what I did, I tested a couple of strategies based on specific manipulated betting odds.

 

All bets have been made with the maximum wager (10k chips) and every strategy has been sampled 30 times.

The comment regarding the "speed" of the strategy is how roughly how much you need to "reroll" to hit the specific odds.

 

Obviously RNG plays a huge role.

 

Strategy 1: Horse 1 at 5/1, Horse 2 at 5/1 (slowest)

Bet on horse 1: +300k

Bet on horse 6: +270k

 

Strategy 2: Horse 1 at 4/1, Horse 2 at 5/1 (second slowest)

Bet on horse 1: +300k

Bet on horse 6: +260k

 

Strategy 3 (best strategy so far): Horse 1 at 4/1 OR 5/1, Horse 2 at 5/1 (good speed)

Bet on horse 1: +370k

Bet on horse 2: +260k

 

Strategy 4: If Horse 6 at 30/1, bet on Horse 6, otherwise bet if Horse 1 at 4/1 OR 5/1 and Horse 2 at 5/1 (good speed)

Bet on horse 6 or horse 1: +320k

Bet on horse 1 all the time: +210k

 

Strategy 5: Horse 6 at 30/1 (decent speed)

Bet on horse 6: +10k

Bet on horse 1: +100k

 

Strategy 6: Bet no matter what the odds are (fastest possible)

Bet on horse 1: +80k

Bet on horse 6: -300k

 

 

Conclusion: If you take the time to manipulate your odds, you will make a much better payoff over time and beat the odds consistently.

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Aznknight

I found that no matter what the odds are for #1 it will always be a near 50% chance of winning. Better to just reload until #1 is higher than 3/1.

 

I've tested this at 50 runs about 4 times and at 100 runs once.

 

It's always near 50% for #1

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metoxys
1 minute ago, Aznknight said:

I found that no matter what the odds are for #1 it will always be a near 50% chance of winning. Better to just reload until #1 is higher than 3/1.

 

I've tested this at 50 runs about 4 times and at 100 runs once.

 

It's always near 50% for #1

 

Here are the winning odds of horse 1 in the different strategies:

Strategy 1: 33.3%

Strategy 2: 40%

Strategy 3: 43.3%

Strategy 4: 53.3%

Strategy 5: 46.7%

Strategy 6: 46.7%

 

While strategies 4-6 give better winning chances to horse 1, strategy 3 has the best profit

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metoxys
14 minutes ago, joel15cat said:

Im doing what Fun said, is slow as f*ck, i do more fast money on Blackjack, but works.

 

https://twitter.com/TezFunz2/status/1156306513478213634

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/TezFunz2/status/1156306513478213634

 

(I dont know how to insert the tweet)

Basically this entire post is doing what Fun said but with different strategies. For instance, strategy 1 would be like Fun's tweet except you're not going below 4/1 odds

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suicidal_banana

This is what i do, and seems to work well:
- Keep reloading the single event until 2nd horse is 5/1
- If first horse is 'even' or 2/1 bet on first
- If first horse is 3/1 bet on second (the 5/1) horse
- If first horse is 4/1 or worse reload

Its based on what i've read on these forums, what people told me in-game (based on some videos from 'proffesional' something something they said, bscly just bet on evens first if second is 5/1) some testing of my own and realizing a 3/1 for first horse often leads to the second horse winning.

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Pocket Fox

Inside track was just taken offline. I had 1.2mil in chips, now I have....8

+450k of those chips were bought with $GTA from the cashier.

 

Rockstar doesn't want us winning money through gambling it seems.

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LennyGhoul

The easiest way (less backing out) until it gets patched this morning, is bet on horse one every time it displayed better than even and isn't the same odds as horse 2, other wise back out and reset. Also bet the long shot on the main event every 5 minutes. This lets you grind the single races which is about 500k Per hour average, plus if you get lucky with the main event side bet, you get a bonus 300k ish per win. 

Just now, Pocket Fox said:

Inside track was just taken offline. I had 1.2mil in chips, now I have....8

+450k of those chips were bought with $GTA from the cashier.

 

Rockstar doesn't want us winning money through gambling it seems.

Wow just now? LAAAME

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RayD70
48 minutes ago, Pocket Fox said:

Inside track was just taken offline. I had 1.2mil in chips, now I have....8

+450k of those chips were bought with $GTA from the cashier.

 

Rockstar doesn't want us winning money through gambling it seems.

 

Wait wait wait wait....

 

THEY made predicting the winners too easy, so they stripped people of their chips for playing THEIR easy to predict races???

 

I mean, I haven't done the horse racing, but that's really low. It's beyond me how this company continues to be so successful while they spit in their fans' faces all the time.

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Aznknight

They must have done a hot fix change on the probabilities.

I did a 60 run test (backing out for better odds) and this is the new statistic:

#1= 40% (24 out of 60)

#2= 23% (14/60)

#3= 5% (3/60)

#4= 8% (5/60)

#5= 15% (9/60)

#6= 5% (5/60)

 

They basically swapped probabilities between horses#3 and #5 then lowered #1's odd by 10%.

 

 

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LennyGhoul
Posted (edited)

I think they did something, because I just ran an hour of Track and instead of my average of 4-500k I barely broke 100k profit. Nonstop grind of nothing. Could have been a bad luck streak but I usually average way more than that with the system I posted above. 

Edited by LennyGhoul

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AUScowboy

Well... it would help if fools didn't broadcast this all over Twitter and youtube. Way to be TOTALLY f*ckING OBVIOUS ABOUT IT..

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Aznknight

Yeah it's a definite tweak of the odds. 4's and 5's are winning more often now.

I chose horse #1 twelve straight times and #2, 4 and 6 won 12 straight.

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lost-in-emotions

So, all past theorys are not working anymore?

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AUScowboy

Blackjack seems to have been adjusted too. Definitely not winning with nearly as many double downs as I had the past week prior.

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Gridl0k
Posted (edited)

Posted this (i've modified it since) a week ago in the GTA chat thread, been making bank, gave up at 12m.

 

Bet on horse 2 every race

Only bet if horse 1 is 3/1 or longer

Only bet if horse 2 is different odds to H1

 

I'll have a play later see if it feels like they changed something. I had over 2000 runs in my db by the end.

 

You back horse 2 because 1 & 2 both win (won?) 40% of the time, but 2 always has the longer odds. I'm thinking of renaming my yacht Hennigan's Steed.

Edited by Gridl0k

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AUScowboy

Even if they nerf everything to sh*t, which I hope they don't obviously, I had a VURY good run lol..

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LennyGhoul

Playing the long shot on the main event, while grinding the single one straight, gives extreme randomness a chance for the price of one bet. I highly recommend it even with what feels like a nerf. 

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Pedinhuh
Posted (edited)

I made about 110k in profits yesterday with my 2nd character that is broke.

 

Peaked at 160k, lost it all back to 80k then recovered back up to 130k before calling it quits for the day.

 

Question: What is the probability of the same horse with 1/1 odds losing two times in a row against other horses with 5/1 odds? Because this happened yesterday...I assumed that the 1/1 horse would win again.

Edited by Pedinhuh

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Gridl0k

The fundamental way racing is broken is that the odds don't actually change the probability of the outcome, if you see what I mean.

 

 

A 5/1 horse 1 will win as often as one at Evens.

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Pedinhuh
6 minutes ago, Gridl0k said:

The fundamental way racing is broken is that the odds don't actually change the probability of the outcome, if you see what I mean.

 

 

A 5/1 horse 1 will win as often as one at Evens.

...Wait, does that means that I supposed to be winning even more than I am now?

 

Because I thought that the reason why I was winning on horses is because the horses were broken enough for the odds to consistently favor the horses with even odds.

 

Goddammit.

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Gridl0k
Posted (edited)

I gave up trying to be right, or understanding why, once I hit 500k/hr :D

 

Maybe the odds do determine the outcome somewhat, but if so, great, because we can set them.

Edited by Gridl0k

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ACR

I dunno, to me it seems they definitely nerfed it to oblivion. Lost more than 100k last night, 1st horse with even or 2/1 odds was loosing 4-5 times in a row and horses with 6/1 and more were winning more often. Have a feeling that it's rigged in a way that horse on which players are betting is gonna loose way more than it's gonna win, even though odds are best for horse to win in a race. Managed to get tiny profit and then lost it all again. I won't play it any more for the time being to keep calm my nerves, but i'm gonna need more chips for decorations and it's really slow process to convert them to cash because of a limit.

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Shaundi.

I lost 70,000 chips by betting on horse 1 after a 6 race winning streak on horse 1.

 

That's a yikes from me.

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Aznknight

Yeah this is definitely the case.

They have now tweaked it that whatever horse you chose you will win around 40% of the time. 

We gotta stop these stupid youtubers announcing everything that benefit us.

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AlltsaVilkenSexigApa
Posted (edited)

I would suggest not to look at win rate, but instead look at expected return for each race. If the expected return is over 100% you will make a profit in the long run, regardless of which horse you bet on.

Betting on lower odds horses will result in a higher frequency of smaller wins and betting on a higher odds horse will result in lower frequenzy of larger wins, but the total profit, in the long run, is still the same.

 

If you just want a quick rule to follow:

- Don't bet if both horse 1 and horse 2 are Evens or 2/1

 

I made a more in depth post on reddit if you're interested: https://www.reddit.com/r/gtaonline/comments/ckioa5/inside_track_lets_talk_strategy/

 

 

25 minutes ago, Aznknight said:

Yeah this is definitely the case.

They have now tweaked it that whatever horse you chose you will win around 40% of the time. 

We gotta stop these stupid youtubers announcing everything that benefit us.

 

If whatever horse you're choosing has a 40% chance to win this wouldn't be a nerf, it would be a huge boost making it a lot easier to make money.

 

 

Edited by AlltsaVilkenSexigApa

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Mrs. Buzz
1 hour ago, Shaundi. said:

I lost 70,000 chips by betting on horse 1 after a 6 race winning streak on horse 1.

 

That's a yikes from me.

I swear on  @Gridl0ksystem, every 2nd day. I f you like to get further informations, visit here!

7:3 wins for me, every 2nd day.

 

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Aznknight
21 minutes ago, AlltsaVilkenSexigApa said:

I would suggest not to look at win rate, but instead look at expected return for each race. If the expected return is over 100% you will make a profit in the long run, regardless of which horse you bet on.

Betting on lower odds horses will result in a higher frequency of smaller wins and betting on a higher odds horse will result in lower frequenzy of larger wins, but the total profit, in the long run, is still the same.

 

If you just want a quick rule to follow:

- Don't bet if both horse 1 and horse 2 are Evens or 2/1

 

I made a more in depth post on reddit if you're interested: https://www.reddit.com/r/gtaonline/comments/ckioa5/inside_track_lets_talk_strategy/

 

 

 

If whatever horse you're choosing has a 40% chance to win this wouldn't be a nerf, it would be a huge boost making it a lot easier to make money.

 

 

I misspoke. I meant considering the near 50% chance of winning with horse #1, that has now been nerfed to 40% and if you choose #1 its 40% is cut by another 60% chance of losing

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SummerFreeze

I've won 200k with horses just 2-3 hours ago (to cover my blackjack losses again).

 

The strategy still seemed to work for me but I don't put 10k on horse #1 every time, but a varying amount depending on the odds. I also play 1:2 depending on horse #2 and #3.

 

6 hours ago, AUScowboy said:

Blackjack seems to have been adjusted too. Definitely not winning with nearly as many double downs as I had the past week prior.

If you were doing a lot of double downs then you may have not been playing the odds correctly. So maybe that was luck correcting itself.

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AlltsaVilkenSexigApa
8 minutes ago, Aznknight said:

I misspoke. I meant considering the near 50% chance of winning with horse #1, that has now been nerfed to 40% and if you choose #1 its 40% is cut by another 60% chance of losing

Oh I see! 

 

I currently got the "This feature is not available at this moment. Please come back later"-bug so I haven't been able to play the past 2 days and not been able to check this nerf.

But before this I played a lot and my strategy seemed to fit the simulations I've done. But once I'm able to play again I will to a long term test to verify this. 

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