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Len Lfc

Analyzing The Past to Predict the Future - Everything We Should Consider on the Road to GTA VI

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Kris194

Well, you may be right. I guess, that they never expected or dreamed that GTA Online will be so successful, that it will let them to make RDR 2 for 8 years and GTA VI for 6 years already and we're not even close to announcement. We all know, that GTA V feels like it needed at least one more year of development and that it should be current-gen title, not last-gen. With 2 or maybe 3 years of additional development they will have now (I believe, that at some point GTA VI was meant to be released in Fall 2020, before next-gen consoles will come out) they will be able to do some stunning things. They will surely have to remake some things to look good on next-gen consoles but it will be worth it. To be honest, only Rockstar uses microtransactions to make better games. I don't even want to think how much worse RDR 2 would be if they would have to release it let's say 2 years earlier.

Edited by Kris194
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EVOLUT7ON
7 hours ago, Benefactor69 said:

I suppose this could have gone in the GTA VI speculation topic, but I felt it belonged here as it looks at the past to predict the future.

 

I believe that there are a lot of hints to the setting of GTA VI in GTA Online updates, and that a lot of the relatively recent GTA Online DLC cars were created with GTA VI in mind. I will explain why and also explain why I think some of the vehicles and features from TBOGT were created with V in mind as past precedent for this.

 

Lets start with the GTA Online cars. 

The first DLC I thought that the cars were seemingly higher quality in their details and interiors was Cunning Stunts: Special Vehicle Circuit. That DLC was released in March of 2017, by that time I think GTA VI would have been in production to some extent, at least enough to know what types of cars they might want it to include.

This DLC was also around the time in which the number of older vehicles started to rise. From the Beach Bum update to Import/Export the number of vintage vehicles was 28/66 or 42%. I only counted civilian cars for this, and no basic variants of each other or existing cars. I did count body style variants assuming they were still civilian as well as weaponized cars that still had a civilian appearance. Using the same rules, from Cunning Stunts: Special Vehicle Circuit to The Diamond Casino & Resort the number of vintage vehicles was 39/78 or 50%, an increase of 8%. In the Arena War update the 1960s/1970s Declasse vehicles were even given a new vintage style emblem. Many of the recent vehicles also have more unique handling than before. The rising quality and percentage of older vehicles is important to note as many people believe that the next GTA game will be set in the past. 

Now why would Rockstar potentially be reusing assets meant for GTA VI in GTA Online? It could simply be as filler, or it could be because they have run out of other content. I can't confirm this myself but I have seen it stated several times on this forum and it does make sense, but supposedly The Doomsday Heist was meant to be the last DLC for GTA Online. That DLC had a huge new heist, tons of cars (many of which could have been for VI), and in general would have been a good DLC to go out with a bang. However GTA Online was still too popular to stop supporting, so Rockstar needed to keep making new updates. What they have done for the updates since The Doomsday Heist is build off of previous updates, or rehash ideas that they originally cut. Southern San Andreas Super Sport Series was a continuation of Cunning Stunts: Special Vehicle Circuit, After Hours expanded on the cut nightclub and dancing features, Arena War expanded on whatever the cut Maze Bank Arena interior was originally going to be used for (probably something similar), and now The Diamond Casino & Resort expands on the cut casino DLC from years ago. The Diamond Casino & Resort in particular has heavy 1980s vibes to it as well, from the amount of vintage cars to the vintage arcade games to the vintage style slot machines to the evil Texan business man Avery Duggan (who is similar to J.R. Ewing, from the popular 1980s drama Dallas) and to the casino penthouse decor specifically in the default colour scheme. If Rockstar is reusing GTA VI content as filler in the more recent GTA Online updates, it would definitely seem like they are hinting at a vintage setting.

 

Now we shall move onto the last time something like this happened, with hints for GTA V in The Ballad of Gay Tony.

The Ballad of Gay Tony was the last episode in Liberty City, being released later in 2009. By 2009 GTA V was already in development and likely enough so that Rockstar had an idea of some new vehicles and features they would want to include in it. I think that the new TBOGT exclusive cars were actually early GTA V vehicles and I will explain why. Some of them felt unfinished such as the Serrano and F620 for example, the Serrano was missing it's B pillars while the F620 was lacking all of it's badges. It could be said that they were made for TBOGT and simply rushed as there was not a lot of time, however I believe that they were unfinished GTA V vehicles. While many vehicles from GTA IV were cut from GTA V or never made it to GTA V at all, nearly every new vehicle featured in TBOGT made it to V. The Bullet GT, F620, Buffalo, 2nd gen Schafter, Super Diamond, Serrano, Police Buffalo, Akuma, Bati Custom/801RR, Double T, Hakuchou, Hexer, Vader, classic Faggio, Buzzard, Skylift, Police Bike, and the Caddy all returned in GTA V. Added later in updates the Tampa, Slamvan, APC, Swift, a new Brickade, and a variation of the Stretch E also returned making the Super Drop Diamond, Police Stinger, original Brickade, original Stretch E, custom Serrano, Blade (boat), Floater, and Smuggler the only new vehicles not to return. In other words, the only TBOGT vehicles that didn't make it to V were unused, variants of other cars, or boats.

Some of the new activities featured in TBOGT also ended up making their way to V and Online such as golfing and base jumping, dancing was also planned but cut and then reused for After Hours. 

 

The Ballad of Gay Tony gave us several hints as to what was to come in GTA V and Online, and I suspect that the recent GTA Online updates have been giving us even more hints and clues as to the setting and what's coming in GTA VI.

It's obvious that any car can be re-used in the next GTA and stuff like that) - It also can be more profitable if you (as a developer) could use the stuff twice (or even thriсe). It's logical and justified.
But as for me, I doubt R* hints the next part of GTA in Online updates. Aren't R* just give people what they want and equip the GTA Online world with everything they can and what people asked for? I think they are.

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burger_mike
35 minutes ago, EVOLUT7ON said:

It's obvious that any car can be re-used in the next GTA and stuff like that) - It also can be more profitable if you (as a developer) could use the stuff twice (or even thriсe). It's logical and justified.
But as for me, I doubt R* hints the next part of GTA in Online updates. Aren't R* just give people what they want and equip the GTA Online world with everything they can and what people asked for? I think they are.

Theres some strange new handling flags for most of the new cars and many of them are from the 70s-80s. 

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Len Lfc
4 hours ago, Equatecurl said:

Theres some strange new handling flags for most of the new cars and many of them are from the 70s-80s. 

Can anyone link to this? I'd be interested to check it out. I've heard this before, but never read into it. 

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burger_mike
19 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

Can anyone link to this? I'd be interested to check it out. I've heard this before, but never read into it. 

Dont know much either im just hearing second hand and have been playing around with the new cars but many of them start to bounce and go out of control when you go insanely fast on a bumpy road. They also have alot more momentum and are more “slippery” then the usual cars in V. 
 

i do like this and it is a way of making it feel like youre going to crash out if your driving retarded, makes it feel like you need some skill and i hope it makes it into 6

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EVOLUT7ON
6 hours ago, Equatecurl said:

Theres some strange new handling flags for most of the new cars and many of them are from the 70s-80s. 

I'm aware of it. I agree that R* may test new handling system on GTA Online vehicles, but I highly doubt that they tease 70s's-80s vehicles. That statement is not exact.

 

Not only 70s-80s were involved but all vehicles were involved with handling issues.

2 hours ago, Len Lfc said:

Can anyone link to this? I'd be interested to check it out. I've heard this before, but never read into it. 

It started with Southern San Andreas Supersport Series update and still a sign. Each car is under the pressure of those handling flags. The fact is that R* changes these flags with new updates, so each time they are new.

As for driving experience, it drives bad and I don't see any advantages of it, only disadvanteages. People are moaning about it every time.

1 hour ago, Equatecurl said:

Dont know much either im just hearing second hand and have been playing around with the new cars but many of them start to bounce and go out of control when you go insanely fast on a bumpy road. They also have alot more momentum and are more “slippery” then the usual cars in V. 
 

i do like this and it is a way of making it feel like youre going to crash out if your driving retarded, makes it feel like you need some skill and i hope it makes it into 6

Also: not many of them bouncing > just a pair of them.
For example: Itali gto, Vamos.

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gtafan1995
On 9/17/2019 at 5:38 AM, JamesG said:

Very good, thought out, and thorough post. With all the speculation and "leaks", including what's in OP, here's what I think will happen and what I gathered from it. 

 

  • GTA 6 will ONLY be released on next-gen consoles. 
  • It will be revealed AFTER Sony and Microsoft reveal their new consoles (obviously, so they can put the logos in their reveal trailer)
  • It will be Rockstar's first game on next-gen consoles. (if Bully 2 is coming, then it will be on current-gen and will be revealed next month or November).
  • The Know's leaks are legit, and the only legit leak so far. It will be based on the east coast of America (Liberty City, Vice City), and South America. South American location WILL NOT be Rio, but will be based off Bogota. (Remember GTA Bogota?).
  • We've seen Liberty City being remastered, possibly for this reason. Also remember Rockstar threatening OpenIV supposedly because of "multiplayer mods", but obviously because they were converting Liberty City over and Rockstar aren't done with HD era Liberty City yet and didn't like them converting it over. Rockstar only threaten lawsuits when it reveals their future plans. 
  • You will have the choice of playing as either a male or female to appease the social justice mob, though script will be the same, like Assassins Creed Odyssey. 
  • It will be based in the past. Dan Houser is thankful to not be releasing it in todays political climate, stating "It would be out of date within two minutes, everything is changing so fast"... How do you avoid that? Base it in the past and it will never be out of date. Esoteric message?
  • Release window - 2022? IMO if new consoles are revealed at E3 next year, then Rockstar might either do what they did with GTA 4 and announce it with Sony, or reveal it themselves in October-November that year with a surprise trailer. They will do the standard 2 year promotional period they done with GTA 5, RDR2. The Dan Houser quote if taken literally, could also suggest he's not expecting Trump to win 2020. But we remember what happened a few years ago and what everyone was expecting. Even if Trump wins 2020, they're not going to sit on it until 2025. He probably would've meant they will release it 2021-2022. 2022 is more likely. 9 years after GTA 5's release. RDR2 was released 8 years after RDR1. I don't think they'd want to go much longer than that. Heck, maybe they will reveal it next month for a 2021 release. That's what I originally thought at the beginning of this year. 

 

Quote

You will have the choice of playing as either a male or female to appease the social justice mob, though script will be the same, like Assassins Creed Odyssey. 

Impossible. Despite their huge focus on Online these days, their single player stories are getting more and more cinematic. Having a gender choice would definitely hurt the story (the cinematic aspect), because an option like that would require the story to be simplified in some ways, so its out of the question. All of their games had male protagonists and I don't see it changing.

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EVOLUT7ON

Analyzing the past to predict the future.
Fact #1: The game is old and didn't have races.
Fact #2: R* is still W.I.P. with the project and testing new features. VR-driveable experience is something new and exclusive for R*.

Fact #3: Such type of games is a great playground to test new features before releasing GTA6.

More and more I believe GTA6 will have VR2 experience. The feature which everyone was dreaming of.

 

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Len Lfc

Updated the thread over the past few days. Decided to reevaluate my final thoughts, in light of recent discoveries. I also came accross this article from Kotaku while doing some research. I thought it was pretty cool, but clearly I like stuff like that lol. What are everybodies thoughts on a GTA VI timeline of events? Would be similar to this, but strictly for legitimate leaks and announcemnts. Would obviously have to wait until an official announcement too. 

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KarimNTerr
On 10/9/2019 at 11:55 AM, EVOLUT7ON said:

More and more I believe GTA6 will have VR2 experience. The feature which everyone was dreaming of.

Very likely indeed, and it'd be awesome! However, if it won't be in the game, I couldn't care less honestly, not a must have feature for me

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Jabalous
11 hours ago, Len Lfc said:

What are everybodies thoughts on a GTA VI timeline of events?

I cannot predict, or maybe guess, a detailed timeline as the one in the Kotaku link, but at least I'd say that there will be no an official announcement of Grand Theft Auto VI before Fall 2021. I believe that it will either be a late 2021 announcement, followed by a late 2023 release, or a late 2022 announcement that will be followed by a late 2024 release. As usual from our experience with V and Redemption 2, more than a few resumes of actors and developers will start to have VI listed by either referring to it as 'an unannounced title', or in a few instances it will be referred to explicitly as GTA 6, and that'd start happening not earlier than ~2 years before release. Right now? I cannot find any resume listing a R* title beyond Redemption 2, except two and both are for actors, and this might or mightn't be a sign that whatever is coming next is truly far away. 

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Len Lfc
5 hours ago, Jabalous said:

I cannot predict, or maybe guess, a detailed timeline as the one in the Kotaku link, but at least I'd say that there will be no an official announcement of Grand Theft Auto VI before Fall 2021. I believe that it will either be a late 2021 announcement, followed by a late 2023 release, or a late 2022 announcement that will be followed by a late 2024 release. As usual from our experience with V and Redemption 2, more than a few resumes of actors and developers will start to have VI listed by either referring to it as 'an unannounced title', or in a few instances it will be referred to explicitly as GTA 6, and that'd start happening not earlier than ~2 years before release. Right now? I cannot find any resume listing a R* title beyond Redemption 2, except two and both are for actors, and this might or mightn't be a sign that whatever is coming next is truly far away. 

Well for the timeline of events, I specifically meant documenting it all in one thread, as it happens. i didn't mean predicting anything. Otherwise, i do agree with your predicted dates. But I do admit, I think it may happen 12 months sooner, based of recent discoveries. Although I do still expect 21' & 23'.

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Dock
18 hours ago, Len Lfc said:

Updated the thread over the past few days. Decided to reevaluate my final thoughts, in light of recent discoveries. I also came accross this article from Kotaku while doing some research. I thought it was pretty cool, but clearly I like stuff like that lol. What are everybodies thoughts on a GTA VI timeline of events? Would be similar to this, but strictly for legitimate leaks and announcemnts. Would obviously have to wait until an official announcement too. 

 

That article was a nice trip down memory lane haha  Crazy to think back on it all, especially the fact that V was announced all the way back in 2011. The "Rush" casting calls were certainly an interesting read back then too.

 

And yeah, creating a timeline like that for VI would be pretty neat :) you could use it as reference for the inevitable GTA 7 version of this thread :D

 

Anyway, I'm firmly believing in an announcement for VI next year, atleast if its slated for current gen. I was hoping for this year but I completely forgot about RDR2 coming to PC.

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GTAhare
On 10/17/2019 at 1:01 PM, Dock said:

 

That article was a nice trip down memory lane haha  Crazy to think back on it all, especially the fact that V was announced all the way back in 2011. The "Rush" casting calls were certainly an interesting read back then too.

 

And yeah, creating a timeline like that for VI would be pretty neat :) you could use it as reference for the inevitable GTA 7 version of this thread :D

 

Anyway, I'm firmly believing in an announcement for VI next year, atleast if its slated for current gen. I was hoping for this year but I completely forgot about RDR2 coming to PC.

 

Len Lfc deserves a lot of credit for doing genuine research and speculation on when we should expect GTA 6. No doubt his work will be used to speculate on GTA 7.

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Len Lfc
On 11/7/2019 at 10:19 PM, GTAhare said:

 

Len Lfc deserves a lot of credit for doing genuine research and speculation on when we should expect GTA 6. No doubt his work will be used to speculate on GTA 7.

Thanks, but a lot of the credit goes to the individuals who I cite originally. Without them, I couldn't have done it. But I just wanted to try to organize all of this, and have a sensible look at things. Plus I'm a bit of a nerd for nostalgic gaming history of my favourite series lol. I think I know Rockstar well enough to make educated predictions. An archive of everything that happened with GTA VI (which we won't fully know for sure until after the fact, after release) would really help for GTA 7... if I'm still here. 2030, ish?

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EVOLUT7ON
436xnjqxgqx31.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&a


Pretty interesting @Len Lfc :)
This group is in NYC and mainly focused on hip hop. I would say that we may expect Liberty City in GTA 6.

Edited by EVOLUT7ON
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EVOLUT7ON

Also, thx to subreddit user gta6999, we got some more info:

There is a guy in India who is is still working in R* as a Game Tester: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ankit-mohanty1996/

 

The most interesting info we can find in his bio:
"I have been playing games ever since I can remember. Being a game tester for two AAA games was like a dream come true. This job role has made me well acquainted with the production pipeline of a game. Along with this, I am experienced with bugs- the complete lifecycle, as well as with assorted QA tools. Constant communication with the developers and working together to create and maintain video games is very fulfilling experience. Hence, I hope to achieve great success in this field."

 

He started his career in 2018, when RDR 2 was launched. I honestly doubt, that any of AAA games which were mentioned, is RDR2 and think both are the new one. 

Edited by EVOLUT7ON

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Kris194
2 hours ago, EVOLUT7ON said:
436xnjqxgqx31.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&a


Pretty interesting @Len Lfc :)
This group is in NYC and mainly focused on hip hop. I would say that we may expect Liberty City in GTA 6.

I wouldn't go that far, it suits Bully more than anything else when you think about it. Big part of September is still summer ;) If it is for Bully 2 it would kinda confirm what I and @Len Lfc have been thinking, Bully 2 was meant to be announced by now.

Edited by Kris194

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Damien Scott
1 hour ago, Kris194 said:

I wouldn't go that far, it suits Bully more than anything else when you think about it. 

Lol how the f*ck does this suits Bully? I'd say it suits GTA more than anything else.

 

3 hours ago, EVOLUT7ON said:

This group is in NYC and mainly focused on hip hop. I would say that we may expect Liberty City in GTA 6.

I know City Morgue is from NYC but this has a Carcer City (Chicago/Detroit) vibe. Who knows? I wouldn't say we may expect LC again just because they are from NYC though.

Edited by Damien Scott

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Eternal Moonshine

so what, should we expect an announcement around next summer? 

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Dock

More likely that we'll get an announcement about whatever this is soon, and that its slated for release in summer 2020.

 

Im leaning towards it being something GTA O related but who knows.

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EVOLUT7ON
7 minutes ago, Dock said:

More likely that we'll get an announcement about whatever this is soon, and that its slated for release in summer 2020.

 

Im leaning towards it being something GTA O related but who knows.

Yeah, looks like release in 2020 or, at least, a big reveal. According to his DM message, we should expect an announcement soon (till the end of the year I guess?)

As for GTA Online, we didn't get Winter Update yet.
As we know, we'll be getting updates twice per year now: December/July. It's still really early to announce something related GTA Online in summer I think.. If today was May, then OK. That's why I doubt it's connected with GTA Online.

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Black_Jesus

"Maybe a new Manhunt?"
Kinda like one of those survival games kids like to play these days.

Edited by Black_Jesus

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Arabia
On 11/10/2019 at 4:32 PM, Black_Jesus said:

"Maybe a new Manhunt?"
Kinda like one of those survival games kids like to play these days.

ok boomer

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Jakub1904

That City Morgue Instagram story looks interesting, but I don't wanna get my hopes up in case it's just something GTA Online related. However, I think it would be quite soon to tease something happening in Summer 2020 if it's really just some Online update.

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MrQuiche
22 minutes ago, BlueLion90 said:

Is there any tool to analyze how GTA Online is doing at the moment? Is it still relevant, is it close to it's end?

 

 

LE*

 

Found something and it is not slowing down at all..

 

https://www.githyp.com/grand-theft-auto-v-101852/?tab=player-count

Keep in mind that it's only showing the number of players from Steam, it's missing the RGL, PS4/XONE and all other platforms.

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Len Lfc
On 11/10/2019 at 9:16 AM, EVOLUT7ON said:
436xnjqxgqx31.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&a


Pretty interesting @Len Lfc :)
This group is in NYC and mainly focused on hip hop. I would say that we may expect Liberty City in GTA 6.

Yeah, I saw that on Twitter. I don't think it's GTA. Rockstar would never allow anything like that to be posted if it were. I know Rockstar have a history of promoting some 'strange' things. Only strange in relation to the kinds of games they make. They've posted on their newswire about cycling tournaments in the past, for example.

 

https://www.rockstargames.com/newswire/article/60136/Rockstar-Games-Presents-the-2017-Red-Hook-Criterium

 

So I personally choose not to focus on this. Although, I will keep half an eye on it.

On 11/10/2019 at 1:32 PM, Black_Jesus said:

"Maybe a new Manhunt?"
Kinda like one of those survival games kids like to play these days.

It does have a Manhunt vibe. But... anything can feel like anything. Doesn't always mean it's connected. An alleged Manhunt 3 was leaked, though. Someone I spoke to, who is a Manhunt fan said it' sounds plausible, but fake. like someone who knows Manhunt/Rockstar well enough to write a legit sounding fake.

https://www.removeddit.com/r/GamingLeaksAndRumours/comments/cgtc5h/for_those_who_are_bummed_out_about_the_fake_leaks/

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Mastah
5 hours ago, BlueLion90 said:

Is there any tool to analyze how GTA Online is doing at the moment? Is it still relevant, is it close to it's end?

 

 

LE*

 

Found something and it is not slowing down at all..

 

https://www.githyp.com/grand-theft-auto-v-101852/?tab=player-count

Quote

The online portion of Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 5, which launched six years ago in October 2013, saw consumer spending up 23 per cent to a new record, Take-Two boss Strauss Zelnick said this week.

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2019-11-09-six-years-after-release-grand-theft-auto-online-is-getting-even-more-popular

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Black_Jesus

GTA Online is still wet but I wouldn't bank on RDR 2 and GTA 5 to lead the charge into Next gen.

For all we know it could be a new Midnight Club, Max Payne 4, then gta 6 (2024). Hope not.

But whatever the case I feel it would be a Multiplayer game. A Manhunt would be exactly the type of game Rockstar can release now and get away with it. Even if its F2P.
Especially if its current and next gen cross play. 

Edited by Black_Jesus

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