This is how you play Blackjack... Gambler #8

[Guest Guest176525326]

23 minutes ago, Ingrobny said:

A new day with new possibles... I just need 1 more win, (oh god, I'm starting to sound like a person with a gambling addiction... 😬)

 

 

tried for 45 min or so and the closest I have been so far is this:

 

 

 

busting out, so you see Rockstar, it isn't a question about lack of commitment, but this challenge 8 is almost impossible to beat.

 

Edit.

 

5 min later and there it is, finally:

 

 

😁.

Well done!!!

 

Now get ready for the ultimate challenge that is number 9

[Ingrobny 106]

11 minutes ago, O.Z said:

Well done!!!

Thanks! I had extreme luck with the last card, stood with 18, normally for trying to win, I would stay on 18, but since I needed 3 hits, I just had to ask for the third card and a 2 card saved the day  😁.

 

11 minutes ago, O.Z said:

Now get ready for the ultimate challenge that is number 9

Hahaha, yeah, I'm not looking forward to it, but if I can exit the domino game when I see I can't win and keep my previous wins, I think it will be more doable than challenge 8?

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ingrobny

[Guest Guest176525326]

1 minute ago, Ingrobny said:

Thanks! 😁.

 

Hahaha, yeah, I'm not looking forward to it, but if I can exit the domino game when I see I can't win and keep my previous wins, I think it will be more doable than challenge 8?

Well you would think so, however just be warned: it’s the most difficult, frustrating and time consuming challenge of the whole game. You could be easily spending around 25mins in a single game where in the end you end up quitting as you realise your opponent is just about to nick it from you. Arghh!!!!

 

Good luck as you are going to need it, be ready to get frustrated lol

[Darealbandicoot 5,188]

2 hours ago, O.Z said:

No, you can save between winning hands in poker - challenge 8. But you can’t save and quit the game in challenge 9, dominoes, otherwise your win count goes back to 0. 

My apologies I meant gambler challenge 9 Domino's where you can't save and quit. Forgot to point that out in my post. 

[Nutduster 12,737]

2 hours ago, Ingrobny said:

Thanks! I had extreme luck with the last card, stood with 18, normally for trying to win, I would stay on 18, but since I needed 3 hits, I just had to ask for the third card and a 2 card saved the day  😁.

 

Hahaha, yeah, I'm not looking forward to it, but if I can exit the domino game when I see I can't win and keep my previous wins, I think it will be more doable than challenge 8?

 

Guys, really - just read what I posted on page 2 of this thread and you will breeze through gambler 9 in less than an hour.  Dominoes is a weird game - like 70% of your moves are completely forced and therefore luck-based, but the other 30% REALLY make a difference in the outcome, especially across multiple rounds.  Follow proper strategy and you will defeat the AI consistently; you'll lose rounds occasionally, but never games (at least not with a single opponent only... things turn into chaos with more than one).

[coach_wargo 2,055]

I hat e these stupid gambling challenges. I'm an avid blackjack player IRL and being forced to play this way to complete a challenge just pisses me off. These were clearly designed by someone who doesn't gamble for real.

[Ingrobny 106]

21 minutes ago, coach_wargo said:

I hat e these stupid gambling challenges. I'm an avid blackjack player IRL and being forced to play this way to complete a challenge just pisses me off.

I only hate the gambling challenge 8, that's the wost of them, I would rather win 5-10 domino games instead of the 3 hit nonsense, I'm now done with challenge 9, I liked this better than the previous challenge.

 

 

I still think Rockstar should change something about the challenge 8, that one can drive a person insane.

[Guest Guest176525326]

25 minutes ago, Ingrobny said:

I only hate the gambling challenge 8, that's the wost of them, I would rather win 5-10 domino games instead of the 3 hit nonsense, I'm now done with challenge 9, I liked this better than the previous challenge.

 

 

I still think Rockstar should change something about the challenge 8, that one can drive a person insane.

Wow, that was quick

[Ingrobny 106]

48 minutes ago, O.Z said:

Wow, that was quick

Even quicker with the poker challenge, I just went all in 3 times and was lucky enough to have better cards than the guys who saw me, 1 time all folded 😁

 

 

and that was that

 

 

😀 the challenge 8 was for me the worst of them, off to the trapper I go and this save will be stored on a USB stick, I'm not going to do this again 😂.

 

Edit.

 

And I will thank you all for your support and encouragement , without you guys I would give up on the gambler challenge at level 8 👍.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ingrobny

[Tonesta 832]

Pfew! I feel like I've been living vicariously through Ingrobny these past few days - the only thing more frustrating and maddening would be to actually try and finish Gambler #8 myself!

[Ingrobny 106]

34 minutes ago, Tonesta said:

the only thing more frustrating and maddening would be to actually try and finish Gambler #8 myself!

I whish you good luck, what I did was playing blackjack when I was reading news and visit forums while I was playing, when I hit 18 and asked for a card I was on my way to the kitchen with my empty breakfast cereal bowl, because I thought there is no way I will get a low card while standing on 18, but on my way to the kitchen i heard I won! I sat the empty bowl on the living room floor and could almost not believe what I saw, (I got a 2 and stood on 20 and card dealer busted out with 22), but there it was, finally.

 

Don't try this for hours, you might loose your mind and end up in a asylum 😂, play half hour and so, stop, do something else, like missions etc and go back when you feel ready, and simply rinse and repeat.

 

35 minutes ago, Tonesta said:

Pfew! I feel like I've been living vicariously through Ingrobny these past few days - the only thing more frustrating and maddening would be to actually try and finish Gambler #8 myself!

 

36 minutes ago, Tonesta said:

Pfew! I feel like I've been living vicariously through Ingrobny these past few days

Hahaha, I'm sorry for putting you guys through this, I was pretty sure I would not get past gambler challenge 8, I thought it was impossible and I would "prove" it to Rockstar, it's still almost impossible, so I think Rockstar should do something with it for future gamers who tries this challenge. 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Ingrobny

[Nutduster 12,737]

Gambler 8 is wretched, but it's beatable through sheer persistence.  I think it took me about an hour and a half straight of playing blackjack.  It's literally just hitting every time you can and waiting for luck to carry you through.  Really an incredibly stupid idea for a challenge, but if you keep at it you'll eventually get lucky three times.

 

I don't like the whole idea of the challenge, but if they couldn't come up with anything better, it should have just been that you have to do it once rather than three times.  Once takes long enough anyway.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Nutduster

[Jimbatron 9,337]

Glad to hear you got it @Ingrobny

 

Gambler challenge 8 definitely felt like the unflushable turd in the otherwise pristine bathroom that is RDR2 when I was trying to grind it out.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Jimbatron

[Jimbatron 9,337]

Been bored so was looking into the maths of blackjack. Trivia question for you all

 

If you have 5 cards and don't bust, what is the least likely score you can finish with?

[Guest Guest176525326]

9 minutes ago, Jimbatron said:

Been bored so was looking into the maths of blackjack. Trivia question for you all

 

If you have 5 cards and don't bust, what is the least likely score you can finish with?

 

4 aces and 1 other card, maybe 2, so 16?

Edited January 9, 2019 by Guest176525326

[Jimbatron 9,337]

50 minutes ago, O.Z said:

 

4 aces and 1 other card, maybe 2, so 16?

Right line of thinking but it's possible to get lower if you have no aces in your hand.

[Cutter De Blanc 14,285]

11

 

2 + 2 + 2 +2 + 3

[Jimbatron 9,337]

Just now, Cutter De Blanc said:

11

 

2 + 2 + 2 +2 + 3

Yes very good. The only way to get exactly 11 is with that combination (assuming a single 52 card deck of course), if you have an ace in your hand, although it can act as a 1, it would also be possible to count the ace as 11 and achieve a better score with 5 cards but still under 21.

[Cutter De Blanc 14,285]

4 aces gives you 14, any number high enough to cause all 4 aces to act as a 1 (the lowest is 8 )would bring the total to 12

Edited January 9, 2019 by Cutter De Blanc

[Jimbatron 9,337]

I'm not 100% certain I've got this right but I've had a go at doing the full maths. Here's the probability I think of getting each possible result if you keep on attempting to draw until you have 5 cards:

 

Player
Score aiming to hold 5 cards	Probability
11	0.0002%
12	0.0426%
13	0.0747%
14	0.1237%
15	0.1971%
16	0.2978%
17	0.4377%
18	0.6138%
19	0.8353%
20	1.1064%
21	1.3432%
Reach 21 exactly before card 5	4.2198%
Bust	90.7078%

 

Of course, those are only the probabilities of you getting each hand - you also have to beat the dealer. The dealer's possible scores and associated probabilities are as follows:

 

Dealer
Score	Probability
17	14.61%
18	13.83%
19	13.50%
20	17.61%
21	12.20%
Bust	28.25%

 

These are approximate, to simplify the calculation I ignored the 0.3% chance the dealer ends up taking more than 5 cards.

 

Combining these, we have,

 

Score aiming to hold 5 cards	Probability	Beats Dealer	Does not beat Dealer	Probability of Challenge (1/3) success
11	0.0002%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.00004%
12	0.0426%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.01203%
13	0.0747%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.02110%
14	0.1237%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.03494%
15	0.1971%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.05568%
16	0.2978%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.08413%
17	0.4377%	28.2495%	71.7505%	0.12365%
18	0.6138%	42.8584%	57.1416%	0.26307%
19	0.8353%	56.6871%	43.3129%	0.47350%
20	1.1064%	70.1879%	29.8121%	0.77652%
21	1.3432%	87.7986%	12.2014%	1.17935%
Reach 21 exactly before card 5	4.2198%
Bust	90.7078%
			Overall Success Chance	3.02403%

 

If I've got this right, on average you could be expected to win with a 5 card trick once in every 33 hands.

 

As I say, not 100% of my calculations all probabilities do sum to one with no remainder (except the dealer simplification mentioned above).

 

[Spaghetti Cat 3,287]

I was told there wasn't going to be any maths!


(working on this challenge now, wish me luck)

[LeonVegaSuarez 1,592]

I play poker for a living and blackjack occasionally. This challenge is just ridiculous. Just dumb luck.

 

The legend of the east outfit looks like sh*t in my opinion and I hate dominoes with a passion so I refuse to complete this challenge. 

[Ingrobny 106]

2 hours ago, Spaghetti Cat said:

I was told there wasn't going to be any maths!


(working on this challenge now, wish me luck)

Good luck to you, remember to stay sane 😉.

[Tonesta 832]

On 1/9/2019 at 7:30 PM, Jimbatron said:

I'm not 100% certain I've got this right but I've had a go at doing the full maths. Here's the probability I think of getting each possible result if you keep on attempting to draw until you have 5 cards:

 

Love the analysis!

 

The only thing I think you haven't factored in is the possibility of the player drawing more than 5 cards.

 

Obviously the player is going to draw another if he/she ends up on 11 after 5.....but this is such a small possibility that I don't think it affects the odds significantly.

 

But if the player ends up in the 12-16 range, they might be advised to hit again if the dealer is showing 7-K. Although the precise odds there get a little complex, and I think also depend on the size of the deck. Do we even know if blackjack in RDR2 is been played with a single deck or 4/6/8 decks??

 

 

[Furi0sa 190]

Ironically enough I finished all 90 challenges and I'm finding the collectibles worse, I'm at 97 percent compeltetion and not sure I can finish. Consulting a guide for 10 different collectible types has to be the most boring crap ever 

[Jimbatron 9,337]

19 hours ago, Tonesta said:

Love the analysis!

 

The only thing I think you haven't factored in is the possibility of the player drawing more than 5 cards.

 

Obviously the player is going to draw another if he/she ends up on 11 after 5.....but this is such a small possibility that I don't think it affects the odds significantly.

 

But if the player ends up in the 12-16 range, they might be advised to hit again if the dealer is showing 7-K. Although the precise odds there get a little complex, and I think also depend on the size of the deck. Do we even know if blackjack in RDR2 is been played with a single deck or 4/6/8 decks??

 

 

Yes it’s a great point. I must confess I nearly broke excel and going from 5 to 6 cards causes the complexity to increase substantially.

 

Im not certain if it’s a single deck but I haven’t noticed the same card come up twice in a round.

 

I wasn’t actually sure as well if you draw 4 cards and have six if that will get you the challenge or if going over invalidates it. To your point in one of my goes I actually got only 15 in 5 cards - but the dealer had a six showing - so I gambled he’s draw two tens and bust, which fortunately he did. But also at the back of my mind was whether you need to exactly draw 3 and finish with 5 cards.

[Tonesta 832]

3 hours ago, Jimbatron said:

I wasn’t actually sure as well if you draw 4 cards and have six if that will get you the challenge or if going over invalidates it. To your point in one of my goes I actually got only 15 in 5 cards - but the dealer had a six showing - so I gambled he’s draw two tens and bust, which fortunately he did. But also at the back of my mind was whether you need to exactly draw 3 and finish with 5 cards.

So I believe the challenge itself is "Win three hands of Blackjack with three hits or more", so in the unlikely event that it happens, a 6 card hand is allowed.

 

And by the way, I think your play above is correct too! If the dealer is showing anything from a 2 to a 6,  I believe you should hold anything 12 and above. The odds of the dealer going bust are better than the odds of you not doing so when drawing again.

If the dealer was showing a 7 or above.....then you need to hit again

 

12 hours ago, scotthedge12 said:

Ironically enough I finished all 90 challenges and I'm finding the collectibles worse, I'm at 97 percent compeltetion and not sure I can finish. Consulting a guide for 10 different collectible types has to be the most boring crap ever 

Normally I quite enjoy collectables, even when using a guide (as you surely have to for RDR2) as it's an excuse to explore the map and see new bits of scenery you might have missed.

 

But the collectables in RDR2 that require things to spawn (i.e. the exotics and hunting requests) are driving me nuts. I was this close to giving up on 100% last night after I'd spent four in-game days roaming the banks of the Kamassa river looking in vain for a Robin. I'd found multiple cardinals, orioles, blue jays, woodpeckers (although where the hell were they when I was doing Hunting Request #2???) and hundreds of songbirds and sparrows, but no ****ing robins.

I actually got onto my horse with the intent of riding back to civilisation, then on to Beechers Hope, to finish the story and be done.....only to turn round and see an unidentified bird taking off from the rock behind me. Brought it down with me trusty varmint rifle and it turned out to be a perfect robin. Thank **** for that!

Edited January 16, 2019 by Tonesta

[Daniel Oprea 4]

On 1/5/2019 at 10:50 PM, scotthedge12 said:

I honestly hate doing all of the challenges, they force you to do mundane boring crap. I'm only like 45 in and wondering if its worth it to keep going.

the gambling ones are pure crap, the herbalist same, the fun ones (so to speak) are the Master Hunter and Horseman

[Cutter De Blanc 14,285]

I wonder what the odds of winning with a 11 card hand are.

 

2+2+2+2+3+1+1+1+1+3+3 =21

[Jimbatron 9,337]

On 2/3/2019 at 6:55 PM, Cutter De Blanc said:

I wonder what the odds of winning with a 11 card hand are.

 

2+2+2+2+3+1+1+1+1+3+3 =21

The probability of getting that exact sequence you describe is 5.73*10^-15 as a decimal which is about 1 in 1.74 trillion.

 

Not sure how many different orders there are yet (haven’t tried to work out) as which some the game would force you to finish early by taking the ace as 11 if it equalled 21. Eg you wouldn’t get beyond card 7 in the sequence 2+2+2+2+1+1+1+1+3+3+3 or any other where your current total is 10 and then draw an ace.

 

Its probably pretty safe to say it’s in the hundred of billions to one though.

 

A deck of cards is a magical thing mathematically. If you shuffle a deck the chances of anyone having ever in history had the exact same order is minuscule as the number of combinations is 52 factorial (guaranteed to break your Casio calculator)