GTA 6 Leaks & Hints Topic.

[Rocketeer]

18 minutes ago, deadasdisco said:

Arn't these just analyst predictions?

It probably is.
The document was published on 31 January 2017 and it predicted Borderlands 3 (FY2019) and more.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[SMC TBane]

5 minutes ago, Rocketeer said:

It probably is.
The document was published on 31 January 2017 and it predicted Borderlands 3 (FY2019) and more.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

So thia is not from taketwo nor rockstar right? If not.. is this still a interesting thing ?

[el carlitos]

@Rocketeer nice find. Very interesting. Still prediction, but sure it will put R* into presser to release the next GTA around 2020. So 2020 - 2021 quite possible.

 

 

[Big Fat Paulie]

I think we're probably going to see GTA VI get a release similar to GTA V.

 

By that I mean we'll get a standard version initially meant for the PS4 and Xbox One, and then an enhanced version for the PS5 and whatever the next Xbox console will be.

 

My best guess will be a release around late 2020 at the absolute earliest and mid-2022 at the latest, and it would probably be preceded by an announcement in late 2019 or early 2020.

 

If RDR 2 weren't so massive of a project, we probably would've already seen trailers and promotional material for GTA VI.

 

Again, this is just conjecture and speculation on my part, so don't take my word for it.

[YNNEL]

2 hours ago, Rocketeer said:

Guys, I stumbled across this document when searching for GTA 6 rumors
https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1070563961&serialid=TveBc203t2s8bXW5CNdtBA54%2BadewJaX%2F%2FOz9YLZlbM%3D

I thought you guys might find this interesting.
Check Page 21.

PS: Not sure of it's authenticity. 

 

Looks pretty legit to me..

[DisCrafted]

Analyst predictions don't really mean anything. Michael Pachter made like a hundred "predictions" before and after V's announcement and all of them were wrong. Even he thinks VI isn't coming til 2021/22 at earliest.

Edited July 18, 2019 by DisCrafted

[Jabalous]

3 hours ago, Rocketeer said:

Guys, I stumbled across this document when searching for GTA 6 rumors
https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1070563961&serialid=TveBc203t2s8bXW5CNdtBA54%2BadewJaX%2F%2FOz9YLZlbM%3D

I thought you guys might find this interesting.
Check Page 21.

PS: Not sure of it's authenticity. 

 

It's an equity research paper that was published in 2017 by Credit Suisse bank, presenting a case for investing in vidoe game companies. It has nothing to do with Take2 or Rockstar. It's also funny that we are already in FY20 for T2 (started in April this year) and Credit Suisse were projecting GTA VI to release during the current fiscal year which will end in March 31, 2020. A projection that has gone completely wrong as VI is nowhere to be seen, not even in the next few years most likely.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jabalous

[Lordani_66]

18 hours ago, Pink Pineapple said:

I think the 2013 and 2021 on the doors was intentional, but only to make people discuss it like we're doing. It doesn't mean the next game is coming in 2021. They just figured that VI had a good chance of being released in 2021, so they decided to have some fun and maybe get it right and make all of us look for hints in GTA VI for the GTA VII release date.

Exactly. Great observation. R* btw does and sometimes does NOT do a lot of things that make people discuss their games and get them hooked more. And if that was the case, what you described, nothing bad will happen if it's not released in 2021, people will make theories about the next game regardless. It's a win-win situation.

 

50 minutes ago, Jabalous said:

It's an equity research paper that was published in 2017 by Credit Suisse bank, presenting a case for investing in vidoe game companies. It has nothing to do with Take2 or Rockstar. It's also funny that we are already in FY20 for T2 (started in April this year) and Credit Suisse were projecting GTA VI to release during the current fiscal year which will end in March 31, 2020. A projection that has gone completely wrong as VI is nowhere to be seen, not even in the next few years most likely.

I think you are wrong. I asked my mother about it right now because she works in accounting and she says that the fiscal year 2019 will end in early 2020 (depends on country, in some maybe in march, in some in january etc.) But Fiscal year 2020 will start in early 2020 and end in early 2021, according to what she told me. And TBH I thought this was the case too so she just confirmed my thoughts.

That would mean FY 2020 release date for GTA VI as stated in this document is still likely to be possible.

 

Edit: Well it seems like we were all wrong because that same document says this:
 

Quote

Take-Two is set to report its 3QFY17 earnings results on 7 February 2017 after market close

So if market closes on 7th feb 2017 and T2 still didn't report 3rd Q of FY17 by that time, that means that the 3rd Q ends somewhere in february and then the 4th Q of FY 2017 starts? This is what I get from it. Either way, it's messed up. Typical American beurecracy.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Lordani_66

[Jabalous]

17 minutes ago, Lordani_66 said:

I think you are wrong. I asked my mother about it right now because she works in accounting and she says that the fiscal year 2019 will end in early 2020 (depends on country, in some maybe in march, in some in january etc.) But Fiscal year 2020 will start in early 2020 and end in early 2021, according to what she told me. And TBH I thought this was the case too so she just confirmed my thoughts.

Private businesses in the USA are able to define the period of their fiscal year. Take2's new fiscal year begins in April and ends in the last day of March of the following year. They're currently in fiscal year 2020 (ending March 31, 2020). Below is a quotation from their latest earnings report of the 4th quarter of FY19.

 

Quote

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO) today reported strong
results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2019, ended March 31, 2019, and
provided its initial outlook for its fiscal first quarter 2020, ending June
30, 2019, and fiscal year 2020, ending March 31, 2020.

 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jabalous

[YNNEL]

But they’ve correctly projected Borderlands 3 haven’t they?

[Lordani_66]

8 minutes ago, Jabalous said:

Private businesses in the USA are able to define the period of their fiscal year. Take2's new fiscal year begins in April and ends in the last day of March of the following year. They're currently in their fiscal year 2020 (ending March 31, 2020). Below is a quotation from their latest earnings report of the 4th quarter of FY19.

 

 

Yeah I noticed my theory was wrogn too and just edited my above post. You are right. So it is indeed impossible that this document means too much, BUT it means that the analysts predicted GTA VI for early 2020 the latest. Maybe we should take into consideration that the RDR2 was pushed by half a year and this will push GTA VI from march to september of 2020 and that will make it a FY 2021 game, but they couldn't have known that in 2017, when the document was created.

 

7 minutes ago, YNNEL said:

But they’ve correctly projected Borderlands 3 haven’t they?

Yes they did it seems, read what I said above because maybe they were wrong due to RDR2 being pushed, while originally it was meant to be released in early 2018, it was released in late 2018. That could be an indicator why GAT VI was pushed from FY 2020 to FY 2021. Still possible late 2020 release date (And R* likes to release GTA games in september, don't they?).

 

Edit: Well, according to how the fiscal year supposedly works in USA, they were wrong. Again, they predicted in for FY 19, and the game was released in september 2019, so again 6 months after FY 19 close date, and 6 months into FY 2020. Maybe everything is just pushed by half a year it seems. Possibly due to RDR2 push in release date.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Lordani_66

[Jabalous]

9 minutes ago, YNNEL said:

But they’ve correctly projected Borderlands 3 haven’t they?

It's wrong, too. It's a FY20 release, not FY19. There's nothing of importance in that document as anybody familiar with or invested in the industry can make projections, and to be honest, we're probably better equipped to make accurate projections than Credit Suisse or any other investment bank. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jabalous

[Lordani_66]

6 minutes ago, Jabalous said:

It's wrong, too. It's a FY20 release, not FY19. There's nothing of importance in that document as anybody familiar with or invested in the industry can make projections, and to be honest, we're probably better equipped to make accurate projections than Credit Suisse or any other investment bank. 

O really? Are we? because I have seen all kinds of predictions here :D. Well, it gives us an indication of what we could possibly looking at, they definately know more than we do. They were wrong by about half a year with Borderlands 3 release date when the game wasn't even implied to be in development (right?). This indicates that we should expect GTA VI to have a release date not that far away. Because they were even wrong about RDR 2 if you look by terms of litteral fiscal year (game was probably set to be released in FY 18, got pushed back to FY 19).

Edited July 18, 2019 by Lordani_66

[Jabalous]

11 minutes ago, Lordani_66 said:

O really? Are we? because I have seen all kinds of predictions here :D. Well, it gives us an indication of what we could possibly looking at, they definately know more than we do. They were wrong by about half a year with Borderlands 3 release date when the game wasn't even implied to be in development (right?). This indicates that we should expect GTA VI to have a release date not that far away.

Borderlands 3 was implied By Take2 several times in 2016 and them making somewhat of an accurate prediction in 2017 isn't surprising. Anybody thought of it, too, as a 2018-2019 release, following the launch of Redemption 2. VI is most likely a mid-late next-gen release, so not earlier than FY23 at best. Dan Houser also believes that the best time for such a release is at the peak of a console cycle, as quoted below.

 

Quote

 

The editor Houser spoke with was a little surprised that GTA 5 wasn't coming out for the console generation after the current one, something the Rockstar creative director brushed off. "Rockstar is a content company, not a hardware company," he said. "We use the technology we have to create content, and we try not to let ourselves get beholden to the hardware. The fact that hardware's so mature right now is exactly why we're able to go on to the next level. GTA 4 was our first attempt at a new platform and HD visuals, so the first part of development was seriously difficult. Now we know what the hardware's capable of, so it's become a lot easier to move things along and a lot more fun, too. GTA: San Andreas came out at the peak of the PlayStation 2's cycle, and we put out a really good game thanks to that. All the best games for a console come out at the end of the lifecycle, right? So now's the best timing of all."

 

However, this of course shouldn't imply that it's now the best time for VI release at the peak of PS4&X1, as this decision is also affected by several other reasons. T2's current financial situation is different from 2011-2013 for example.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jabalous

[Lordani_66]

1 minute ago, Jabalous said:

VI is most likely a mid-late next-gen release, so not earlier than FY23 at best.

Gonna give you a SQUARE for DOUBT on this one.

 

2 minutes ago, Jabalous said:

Dan Houser also believes that the best time for such a release is at the peak of a console cycle, as quoted below.

However, this of course shouldn't imply that it's now the best time for VI release at the peak of PS4&X1, as this decision is also affected by several other reasons. T2's current financial situation is different from 2011-2013. 

What reasons would that be? What are the differences? From this document I'd rather say it's going to be the case of Current Gen release and then Next Gen re-release again. If they are going just for NG release, that's a lot of money lost for them from Current gen. If they release it on CG too, that's double the money. Plus, they are not making this much money off of GTA Online anymore and RDR Online is WAAAAAY behind GTA Online. So I doubt they are willing to live off the scraps of those profits until mid/late next gen.

Plus, according to your own quote from that document:
 

Quote

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO) today reported (...) its initial outlook for its fiscal first quarter 2020, ending June 30, 2019, and fiscal year 2020, ending March 31, 2020. 

So it's actually T2 making those predictions in that document, not Credit Suise. Which again points to the stronger possibility of 2020 release, or aroudn that time and for current gen possibly too.

[DisCrafted]

All those who believe this game's going to come out next year... Boy are you going to be disappointed in 3 months.

[Lordani_66]

3 minutes ago, DisCrafted said:

All those who believe this game's going to come out next year... Boy are you going to be disappointed in 3 months.

Why do all GTA VI release date pessimists sound so angry all the time as if they could only speak in passive aggressive tone.

No one's here saying that GTA VI is coming out 2020, I'm just stating that it's still possible. If anything ,there are only people here who say for certain that it isn't coming out 2020 as if they had some special info about it that no one else has.

Edited July 18, 2019 by Lordani_66

[Jabalous]

3 minutes ago, Lordani_66 said:

So it's actually T2 making those predictions in that document, not Credit Suise. Which again points to the stronger possibility of 2020 release, or aroudn that time and for current gen possibly too.

Your're again mixing T2's earnings report and a paper published by a bank. I don't know why you'd think, even for moment, that they're same thing. 

 

As for what's the difference, it's the fact that T2 was unprofitable during 2011-2013 and the stock price reflected the investors' pessimism in the company turning to a growing profitable business. They were literally desperate to get V out of the door to start selling, and hoping that Online could turn into a successful product that grows YOY. Now 7 years later, it's the case, with the company operating at predictable profit margins, even though growth is slowing, but at least they're not losing money YOY. They're in no hurry to get another AAA project, say VI, out of the door and can still operate profitably in the next few years, from GTAO, RDRO, NBA 2K Online and other diversified products they have on the table. 

[Lordani_66]

2 minutes ago, Jabalous said:

Your're again mixing T2's earnings report and a paper published by a bank. I don't know why you'd think, even for moment, that they're same thing.

I'm not mixing anything. It clearly states that the predictions were made by T2 themselves and not CS. I initially found it weird that a company as credit suisse would even make such predictions while it's obviously not their area of interest. It being made by T2 makes a lot sense. How was it published is another story that doesn't make it any less interesting. Actually, it's companies like CS that are not exactly into such topics that release such golden info.

[DisCrafted]

3 minutes ago, Lordani_66 said:

Why do all GTA VI release date pessimists sound so angry all the time as if they could only speak in passive aggressive tone.

No one's here saying that GTA VI is coming out 2020, I'm just stating that it's still possible. If anything ,there are only people here who say for certain that it isn't coming out 2020 as if they had some special info about it that no one else has.

Having a rough day, eh? How was I being passive aggressive in anyway? I'm just trying to look at this stuff realistically. Yes, It's possible but the odds are very low imo. That's just my opinion. It's fine if you don't believe that. You're just getting upset over this analyst prediction stuff for no reason. 

[Lordani_66]

1 minute ago, DisCrafted said:

Having a rough day, eh? How was I being passive aggressive in anyway?

Literally asking how it's passive aggression after a sarcastic question like that? Oh boy. But no, on the contrary, it was a great day, I had a great sleep, found a new job which is going to be my first job in CS after graduating, have a date with a nice girl in 2 or 3 days, found interest in video games again. All goes well actually.

 

Quote

You're just getting upset over this analyst prediction stuff for no reason. 

And where did I get upset? Excited? Surely, upset, not at all.

[DisCrafted]

6 minutes ago, Lordani_66 said:

Literally asking how it's passive aggression after a sarcastic question like that? Oh boy. But no, on the contrary, it was a great day, I had a great sleep, found a new job which is going to be my first job in CS after graduating, have a date with a nice girl in 2 or 3 days, found interest in video games again. All goes well actually.

 

And where did I get upset? Excited? Surely, upset, not at all.

You and Jabalous are kinda going at it
Anyways, my bad if I came off as an ass. It wasn't my intention . In the end we're all here for one reason, right? And it's surely going to happen one day. We just don't exactly know the 'when' but we obviously make predictions.
 

Edited July 18, 2019 by DisCrafted

[gfh12]

there is no way this game coming out next year this game will take at least eight years to make like rdr 2  .

 

so 2021 or 2022 . 

 

 

[Lordani_66]

11 minutes ago, Jabalous said:

As for what's the difference, it's the fact that T2 was unprofitable during 2011-2013 and the stock price reflected the investors' pessimism in the company turning to a growing profitable business. They were literally desperate to get V out of the door to start selling, and hoping that Online could turn into a successful product that grows YOY. Now 7 years later, it's the case, with the company operating at predictable profit margins, even though growth is slowing, but at least they're not losing money YOY. They're in no hurry to get another AAA project, say VI, out of the door and can still operate profitably in the next few years, from GTAO, RDRO, NBA 2K Online and other diversified products they have on the table. 

Okay I will give you that, there may have been differences in their profits in 2010-2013 and later thanks to GTA V, because it broke all the records, but it wasn't unprofitable. The profits went down from 2011 to 2012 (but then it rose agains from 12 to 13, not counting GTA V obviously, I'm talking about Fiscal Year, as shown in the 2nd link) but they were still making profits for the most part. Sources: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TTWO/take-two-interactive-software/revenue

https://ir.take2games.com/financial-information/annual-reports/

 

The biggest peaks? GTA V release and RDR 2 release. In between it basically looks all similar, percentage-wise. most importantly, R* and T2 are profit-making companies. As much profit is possible, they will try to achieve it. The biggest profit they can get is by releasing GTA VI on current gen, which sold more consoles than any other console generation ever sold for the time of comparison (PS4+XOne vs PS2+Xbox) and then re-release it on next gen consoles. So the case is, they weren't really in any rush to release GTA V and it shows, by how well made that game really is (possibly most polished game in the franchise, while some didn't like the story or characters but those are simply artistic visions).

[gfh12]

defo think this update will be in the next gta online. 

 

atlantic city new jersey would make sense. 

 

this the arena war and the businesses . 

 

 

 

 

[Lordani_66]

12 minutes ago, DisCrafted said:

You and Jabalous are kinda going at it
Anyways, my bad if I came off as an ass. It wasn't my intention . In the end we're all here for one reason, right? And it's surely going to happen one day. We just don't exactly know the 'when' but we obviously make predictions.
 

Didn't thing of you as an ass lol. And that's right, we all love the same thing and it's the GTA franchise and it's what keeping us here together so let's all have fun and not attack each other. I'm all for it.

5 minutes ago, gfh12 said:

there is no way this game coming out next year this game will take at least eight years to make like rdr 2  .

 

so 2021 or 2022 . 

 

 

RDR is their plan B. It's their B game. Red dead revolver came out in 2004, just like GTA SA. RDR came out in 2010, while GTA IV came out in 2008 (not counting EFLC, LCS, VCS, but you can count them as what GTA Online was to GTA V). And RDR already had an engine made for it (with IV's release in 2008). Their release dates mean nothing or very little.

[DisCrafted]

Casino DLC dropping next Tuesday along with some familiar faces returning: https://www.rockstargames.com/newswire/article/61039/The-Diamond-Casino-Resort-Grand-Opening-July-23rd
It's got its' own website as well: https://thediamondcasinoandresort.com/

[dyz]

2021 release date, calling it now. I seriously think they will give us an announcement at the end of the year. GTA 6 will be the only GTA game built for this generation, they’ll do the same as they did with GTA 5. 

[Lordani_66]

Just now, dyz said:

2021 release date, calling it now.

Now I will tell you guys why I think it's going to come out in 2020.

It's either 2020 and current gen + 2021 next gen, or ~2023 release date. 2021 is the least possible, because next gen consoles come out in 2020.
They will not release it in 2021 just for next gen, when barely anyone will have it. It's a huge profit loss especially with how much it takes nowadays to make games. And since GTA VI is already long in production, it will be already kinda outdated when released in 2023. This is why Current Gen + Next Gen formula release after RDR release on current gen is the most possible with R* nowadays.

[Jabalous]

41 minutes ago, Lordani_66 said:

I'm not mixing anything. It clearly states that the predictions were made by T2 themselves and not CS. I initially found it weird that a company as credit suisse would even make such predictions while it's obviously not their area of interest. It being made by T2 makes a lot sense. How was it published is another story that doesn't make it any less interesting. Actually, it's companies like CS that are not exactly into such topics that release such golden info.

It's an investment bank. It publishes reports for its clinets in various sectors. Tech, video games, retail, telecom, medical. Yes, they have analysts who specialize in the video games industry and they do make investment decision for their clients. These projections have nothing to do with T2, and this is not hard to understand to be honest. 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Jabalous