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BLOOD

Games Industry Discussion - Stocks, Markets...

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BLOOD

 

Strauss recently was in China visiting Partner Tencent calling it "a great company".

I think no one of the smaller companies will ever buy TTWO. There needs to be a big fat elephant buying them which would be Tencent or Amazon.

They can offer benefits for such a deal money wise and company wise

I kind of agree but look at the valuations (market cap) of the companies i mentioned:

 

 

 

*Tencent (Games/Social): $360 Billion

*AT&T (Telecom/Media): $240 Billion

*Comcast (Cable/Media): $197 Billion

*Verizon (Telecom/Media): $190 Billion

*Fox (Media): $52 Billion

*Activision Blizzard (Games): $45 Billion

*EA (Games): $35 Billion

*Nintendo (Games): $34 Billion

*Take-Two Interactive (Games): $7 Billion

*Ubisoft (Games): $6 Billion

*ZeniMax (Games): Est. $2.5-4 Billion

 

Edit: Netmarble based in South Korea with $12 Billion in market cap could be one to watch as well.

Edited by BLOOD

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Jason

Christ, change of tune in here recently, eh?

 

Their stocks going up: Take-Two will be $200 by the end of next year, could buy Bethesda, Ubisoft or with ZMC take over EA!

 

Stock plateaus as it always does in this world: Take-Two can't grow, they need to get taken over by EA, Tencent or someone like it.

 

This is just normal, no companies value is going to continue to sky rocket when they're releasing no new revenue streams - RDR2's delayed, they don't have that much for this year. Around this time next year you'll be singing their praises again as the launch of RDR2 sends their stock flying back up again.

 

If they wanted to sell up they'd likely have done it years ago when they were down in the dumps and only being kept afloat by GTA. They rejected an offer from EA when it would be easy and instead they've been spending the last 10 years or so trying to stay independent and become much bigger by bringing in developers and reducing their reliance on Rockstar, stuff like Irrational Games back in the day and Firaxis even earlier, the publishing deal with Gearbox for Borderlands and more recently we're seeing them starting go through another of these reinvestment phases with Social Point, Kerbal and probably a few more over the next year or so. Never say never with them being taking over, but they're doing perfectly fine and they don't need to be taken over to make them bigger, not at all.

Edited by Jason

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FlatFX

Tencent makes the most sense of them all to establish TTWO IP in China.

I agree its just dreaming and also TTWO market size of 20B is not realistic.

 

A double down to 14-15B should be possible if GTA V continues to generate cash and RDR2 going to be a hit.

 

Looking at the current player numbers I execpt another quarter with high margin and better than expected cash flow.

Also GTA V is #1 in Xbox Games and #3 in PS4 Games at Amazon. More Shark Cards for Strauss ;)

 

Everything above is not justified with the current portfolio.

Edited by FlatFX

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BLOOD

Jason: I still see a $200 but that by 2019/2019, less volatile stock market, and no acquirer. And Yeah I hope things change for great and the thread get more lively again, and it great to see then getting on mobile and exports. An Analyst just gave Take-Two a price target of $87.00+

 

FlatFX: True that Tencent will be a right fit but unfortunately have a 5% stakes in Take-Two's rival Activision Blizzard. That the reason it just partnership. And unexpectedly Amazon just made their largest acquisition buying Whole Foods for $13 Billion [Twitch buying at $970 Million was their largest until now] so they can always be a suitor but time will tell.

 

Edit: I still see Take-Two getting past $20 Billion in future [if they don't get acquired!]

Edited by BLOOD

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Jason

Tencent owning Take-Two would be awful. Take-Two staying independent is very important for the industry - for the same reason as to why Ubisoft has been trying to stave of the impending Vivendi take over. These are companies are all about profit margins, not innovation or passion. If we're talking hypotheticals, then the best owner would be someone like an Amazon or even an EA. EA know the industry and while Amazon are new to it they seem to know whats up, they're taking their sweet time with the games they have in development which is exactly what top developers should be doing.

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FlatFX

EA has not enough money for that.

 

Yep the Whole Foods deal got them into a cage fight with Walmart ;). Still on gaming they are a kind of weak, also I believe they would like to focus on mobile gaming. Especially there are rumors that they do a second try releasing their own smartphone.

 

I like the idea and Amazon has enough cash to do this.

 

@Blood: $200 wont happen also not with RDR2 despite they manage to sell 40 Million copies the first year which is very unlikely

 

Market is too hot for that. Before we will have another big crash.

Edited by FlatFX

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BLOOD

I think at the end of the day North America will just have Activision and EA. Plus both have $45 Billion and $35 Billion in market cap respectively with cash of $6 and $8 Billion respectively. Take-Two will unfortunately be acquired same with privately-held ZeniMax. While in Europe it probably just be little independent studios if Ubisoft got taken out. Strauss Zelnick may never be the next Jeff Bezos or Bill Gate or be part of the Fortune 500 or even S&P 500 but he will still be around with his ZMC investment vehicle doing little deals or even large ones [Take-Two being ZMC's most valuable asset even though their stake is only worth $70 million] and I also said "If they don't get acquired!" and yeah their financials is always sketchy so that another reason they will always be a little ant next to massive elephants Activision and EA. Plus they still depend largely on GTA so it looks like Strauss Zelnick plan to grow the company into a big one less dependant on one franchise some ten years ago have failed so he now have cash to do crazy deals before selling the company to any of the previously mentioned or it rivals. He never run a company worth more than $5 Billion nor did not get taken out [interestingly Take-Two is at $7 Billion so that a first lol] even his ZMC firm does not have a massive portfolio. He ain't Icahn or Buffett or Ackman or Jana or Loeb but he is smart and interesting for someone trying to be like these aforementioned people.

 

Edit: AT&T after they complete their Time Warner acquisition will look at them plus the CEO Randall Stephenson have a spreadsheet of 50+ companies big or small that Ma Bell should acquire next. Verizon is still absorbing the $10 Billion buying AOL and Yahoo and putting them under a subsidiary called Oath and they are interested in CBS and Disney so that another one however Bethesda will also cheap for these two Global Telecom-Media-Techno Titans. And then there are also Google and Facebook.

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

Tencent wants to buy Angry Birds maker Rovio.

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BLOOD

Tencent wants to buy Angry Birds maker Rovio.

Interesting..Tencent should also pick up Rocket League developer Psyonix [Take-Two will not but I will be shocked if they do buy them] and buyout the 51% of Epic Games they don't own already.

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Jason

If we're talking from a business stand point (I don't want this from an industry perspective!) Pysonix would be a really great buy for a company looking to get into online gaming and in particular eSports. Rocket League's been a runaway success and it's eSports scene is becoming a genuine force of it's own now, with the Twitch numbers for the most recent LAN finals a few weeks ago hitting 180k viewers. A lot of that was people watching 2-3+ times on one computer because they added a in-game item drop system while you watched it through Twitch, but it's still veeeery impressive nonetheless. It's still growing, there's a lot of ways to improve it and shape it and Pysonix wouldn't cost an buying company an ungodly amount of cash to buy.

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BLOOD

100 posts milestone..We did it guys and gals.Thank you all. Anyway back on topic/discussion(s-business/take-two talks) I think Activision and EA will consolidated the Industry with Take-Two, Bethesda-ZeniMax, Psyonix, Hi-Rez etc. being the main targets so by 2022 the North America gaming industry is just made up of two big independent players. I will be so shocked though come late-2020s Activision and EA get taken out by AT&T or Verizon or Tencent or Amazon.

 

Edit: @Jason, Spider-Vice: Haha Thanks guys I corrected just now.

Edited by BLOOD

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Spider-Vice

....there's 4 pages in the thread?

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Jason

100 posts, not pages. BLOOD's been on the whiskey.

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gallardo555

Given the recent events, where Take-Two started a war against the GTA modding community, I boycot Red Dead Redemption 2. And I hope that many of you wouldn't give your money to Take2 for this anticipated game...

Edited by gallardo555

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Jabalous

Given the recent events, where Take-Two started a war against the GTA modding community, I boycot Red Dead Redemption 2. And I hope that many of you wouldn't give your money to Take2 for this anticipated game...

 

Find me a replacement to RDR2 that lives up to R*'s standards and I will consider it. Until then, it's my most anticipated game since GTA V and I won't hesitate to support developers and publishers that keep pushing the medium forward. In this case, they're R*/T2.

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gallardo555

 

Given the recent events, where Take-Two started a war against the GTA modding community, I boycot Red Dead Redemption 2. And I hope that many of you wouldn't give your money to Take2 for this anticipated game...

 

Find me a replacement to RDR2 that lives up to R*'s standards and I will consider it. Until then, it's my most anticipated game since GTA V and I won't hesitate to support developers and publishers that keep pushing the medium forward. In this case, they're R*/T2.

 

 

 

Seeing what they did to GTA V, where they now focus only on the Online and selling Shark Cards, I don't think Rockstar lives up to their own standards anymore... Since there's going to be Red Dead Online, I expect the game to include a one-time singleplayer campaign and RD:O full of some different form of microtransactions, repeating the same boreness that happened to the GTA V game. That ain't the standard Rockstar used to do keep back in the days.

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Jabalous

It wasn't a much different case with RDR. The game was released in Spring 2010 and didn't receive an additional story content in a form of a DLC. Undead Nightmare cannot be counted as one since it's set in another universe and is a R*'s bold attempt at the Horror genre. Other than that, the support was extended only for multiplayer with several DLCs that added co-op, maps, mini games and other cosmetics to the multiplayer world. Did R* add more content to the original single player mode of RDR? Not a thing, so I would be content with them doing the same for RDR2 as long as they deliver an atmospheric story experience, which I'm sure they will. Red Dead Online? Sure it will include microtransactions, but as in GTAO, you will have the choice to participate in the daily grind of building your personal cowboy empire, or just sit back, relax and play casually (old-fashioned, just like me). Things such as deathmatches, horse races and Liar's Dice don't need you to grind for fun, so I will take that.

Edited by Jabalous

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FlatFX

to keep track of their business I do my own assumptions on sales. This includes retail and online estimations and does not reflect the real world when resellers buy a bigger chunk of Qtys

Nevertheless I have a solid hit rate.

 

open for discussions :)

 

ttworlu4a.jpg

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BLOOD

Jesus I can see it. Clicked on it and only blank. Anyway cool one FlatFX 👍😆

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FlatFX

Last quarter was a big surprise to market but the Q1 earnings will prove for the first time how TTWOs base business has developed over the years. Therefore I expect sideway movement around 75$ till mid of August. If they are able to show high margin incomes fueled by recurring consumer spending and gains in mobile market with Social Point the stock is going to Skyrocket and we could see a long winning streak towards RDR2 release

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BLOOD

Fla5FX: Great Point Brother. Anyway That Interview I linked talk about everything and Zelnick saying ten years ago Take-Two was only had $700 million in market cap unlike today that it at $7.5 billion. He also said the plan is to growth revenue and market cap going forward. The man is a legend even though his investment vehicle ZMC is not as big as Apollo or KKR. I hope the Social Point acquisition let them so less dependent on GTA going forward. And that NBA2K ESPORTS Partnership could be a big game changer revenue-wise going forward.

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FlatFX

if EA fails again with NBA Live 18 yes ;)

But I think they will sniff away at least a little bit of business from T2

 

On this mod controversy I was wondering why T2 not just simply buys the OpenIV Modding Tool + developers give them some money and a few additional people which are focused to improve the tools to be Singleplayer related only and actually sell mods

That would make everybody happy. In case Strauss read this ... :panic:

Edited by FlatFX

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Jason

if EA fails again with NBA Live 18 yes ;)

But I think they will sniff away at least a little bit of business from T2

 

On this mod controversy I was wondering why T2 not just simply buys the OpenIV Modding Tool + developers give them some money and a few additional people which are focused to improve the tools to be Singleplayer related only and actually sell mods

That would make everybody happy. In case Strauss read this ... :panic:

 

Selling mods would do the very opposite of making everybody happy. It's one of the more controversial topics in PC gaming right now and Bethesda is going to have to do very well to convince people their new Creation Club is worth investing in, and they've traditionally been one of the kings of the PC modding scene.

Edited by Jason

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FlatFX

Guess Strauss read my comment. Now they will incorporate Open IV in Rockstar and develop paid singleplayer dlcs

 

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywz87k/rockstar-games-talks-publisher-into-leaving-grand-theft-auto-v-modders-alone

 

 

 

.... TTWO should also buy Bluehole before somebody else does

Edited by FlatFX

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Jason

Guess Strauss read my comment. Now they will incorporate Open IV in Rockstar and develop paid singleplayer dlcs

 

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywz87k/rockstar-games-talks-publisher-into-leaving-grand-theft-auto-v-modders-alone

 

 

 

.... TTWO should also buy Bluehole before somebody else does

 

Er, no where in that article does it mention incorporating OpenIV's software or developer into Rockstar or the development of paid single player DLC's?

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FlatFX

chill Jason

 

your quite negative about everything

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BLOOD

Guess Strauss read my comment. Now they will incorporate Open IV in Rockstar and develop paid singleplayer dlcs

 

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywz87k/rockstar-games-talks-publisher-into-leaving-grand-theft-auto-v-modders-alone

 

 

 

.... TTWO should also buy Bluehole before somebody else does

I also thought of that then I think it South Korean-owned. Anyway Great News.

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Jason

chill Jason

 

your quite negative about everything

 

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. So being confused at you pulling claims that Rockstar will incorporate OpenIV into the company and produce paid single player DLC's out of a hat is not only being "negative" but reason for me to chill. :sigh:

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BLOOD

Take-Two will make one or two shocking acquisitions between now and 2019.

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