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BLOOD

Games Industry Discussion - Stocks, Markets...

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

Rucke: Thanks. I think the last part of you comment made me think they will repurposed those studios as development studios not part of Rockstar Studios but have to have their games published by Rockstar Games. Take-Two will then rename itself to Rockstar Interactive Software Co. spin off the part that makes sports and owns 50% in NBA 2K League as a independent publicly traded company, the New Take-Two consisting of those assets. Old Take-Two has already become a namesake owner of Rockstar Games, it studios, a renamed Social Point and Private Division and a repurposed 2K studios with the stock symbol change to RSTAR and keeping the price history since the New Take-Two will have a new stock symbol also TTWO. And if few years New Take-Two then split again with that spin-off becoming an holding company for 2K League, 2K Sports (I think the same reason for the diversification deals last year). Great comment brother.

Edited by BLOOD

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mombo2811

 

Take-Two is reportedly going to be splitting into 3 publicly traded companies:

 

* Rockstar Interactive Software Corp. (consisting of Rockstar Games, Rockstar Studios which will absorb 2K Games it studios, and Social Point becoming Rockstar Mobile) it stock symbol will be RSTAR on the Nasdaq.

 

* 2K League Incorporated (consisting of 2K Sports & Visual Concepts, NBA 2K League, and few other sports assets) it stock symbol will be TWOKL on the Nasdaq.

 

* New Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (consisting of 5% stake in each of the aforementioned companies, media assets, SZ's ZMC and it portfolio, and a label that caters to independent games (PD was folded and flip over to RISC/RSTAR but the infrastructure and talent will remain with them)) stock symbol will be a new TTWO on the Nasdaq (old TTWO became RSTAR).

 

All three will have a combined market capitalization of $28 billion (RSTAR will be $17B, TWOKL will be $3B, and New TTWO will be $8B) and all three will split the $1.3B in cash equally and all based in New York.

 

Strauss Zelnick will be board member of RSTAR with the Housers becoming CEO and President and Chief Story Officer respectively. Karl Slatoff will be a board member of RSTAR. He will becoming CEO of New TTWO. Lainie Goldstein will becoming CEO of TWOKL and board member of all three publicly traded companies. SZ will also be Executive Chairman of all three.

 

source say this will happen in late 2019 or late 2020 and likely around 2021.

 

Which source are you referring to?

 

I could totally see this happening if it weren't for the fact that Rockstar is very keen to protect their image as a "cool" label. Even though the themes of their games are very different from each other, they still have a certain style and attitude that permeate throughout the games that they make. I guess that Mafia maybe could fit under the Rockstar label, but definitely not BioShock or Borderlands.

 

However I think that something is about to happen to 2K. They have been awfully quiet since the release of Mafia 3, a game that was a major disappointment both in terms of sales and ratings. I know that there has been a change in 2K management last year, and I think that right now they are reorganizing the label and its studios to focus more on making fewer but better games (like Rockstar).

 

Im not sure if it was a flop in sales...It did shop 5 million units during it launch week which is the highest number of shipped units for any 2K game

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

 

So here once again:

 

2K Games and it studios, Private Division, and Social Point should fold into Rockstar Games and it studios (some repurposed or sold since it will not fit well) Social Point renamed to Rockstar Barcelona or Rockstar Games Mobile or Rockstar Interactive Mobile and focused on all things mobile games all owned by a publicly traded Rockstar Interactive Software Corp.

 

The 2K name will survive via Visual Concepts 2K sport titles and the spin-off 2K League.

 

New Take-Two will be the third publicly traded successor entity after the other two and own 5% stake in both.

 

Anyway here: https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/spin-off-vs-split-off

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joecornell/2018/04/04/spin-offs-can-spawn-great-investments/

 

I think few year after such move, Activision Blizzard will also copy them and spin off into two: Activision Inc. and Blizzard Inc.

 

Electronic Arts may also copy and spin-off BioWare and DICE.

 

 

The US will have 7 publicly traded game companies:

 

* ATVI

* BLIZZ

* EA

* RSTAR

* TWOKL

* TTWO

* BETH (newly IPO)

 

RSTAR will be the largest independent publicly traded game company focused on open world, action adventure and unmatched gaming experience I can envision a market cap of $17B that will be five times bigger than CD Projekt current valuation of $3.5B.

 

TWOKL will be the largest independent publicly traded esport company I can envision a valuation of $3B

 

New TTWO will be customer to both and be the largest independent publicly traded gaming media and traditional media (film and TV) and new form with 5% stake in the other two companies. I can envision a market capitalization of $5-8B.

Edited by BLOOD

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Rucke

 

 

Take-Two is reportedly going to be splitting into 3 publicly traded companies:

 

* Rockstar Interactive Software Corp. (consisting of Rockstar Games, Rockstar Studios which will absorb 2K Games it studios, and Social Point becoming Rockstar Mobile) it stock symbol will be RSTAR on the Nasdaq.

 

* 2K League Incorporated (consisting of 2K Sports & Visual Concepts, NBA 2K League, and few other sports assets) it stock symbol will be TWOKL on the Nasdaq.

 

* New Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (consisting of 5% stake in each of the aforementioned companies, media assets, SZ's ZMC and it portfolio, and a label that caters to independent games (PD was folded and flip over to RISC/RSTAR but the infrastructure and talent will remain with them)) stock symbol will be a new TTWO on the Nasdaq (old TTWO became RSTAR).

 

All three will have a combined market capitalization of $28 billion (RSTAR will be $17B, TWOKL will be $3B, and New TTWO will be $8B) and all three will split the $1.3B in cash equally and all based in New York.

 

Strauss Zelnick will be board member of RSTAR with the Housers becoming CEO and President and Chief Story Officer respectively. Karl Slatoff will be a board member of RSTAR. He will becoming CEO of New TTWO. Lainie Goldstein will becoming CEO of TWOKL and board member of all three publicly traded companies. SZ will also be Executive Chairman of all three.

 

source say this will happen in late 2019 or late 2020 and likely around 2021.

 

Which source are you referring to?

 

I could totally see this happening if it weren't for the fact that Rockstar is very keen to protect their image as a "cool" label. Even though the themes of their games are very different from each other, they still have a certain style and attitude that permeate throughout the games that they make. I guess that Mafia maybe could fit under the Rockstar label, but definitely not BioShock or Borderlands.

 

However I think that something is about to happen to 2K. They have been awfully quiet since the release of Mafia 3, a game that was a major disappointment both in terms of sales and ratings. I know that there has been a change in 2K management last year, and I think that right now they are reorganizing the label and its studios to focus more on making fewer but better games (like Rockstar).

 

Im not sure if it was a flop in sales...It did shop 5 million units during it launch week which is the highest number of shipped units for any 2K game

 

 

Yes I take that back, but it got really bad reviews and I think that affected the sales (long-term).

 

This is also an interesting read: https://www.gamezone.com/news/rumor-mafia-3-needs-to-sell-8-million-units-to-be-a-success-hasn-t-even-sold-1-million-3444741/

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

So here our a publicly traded Rockstar Games should be structured:

 

Rockstar Company Inc. (parent company; Nasdaq: RSTAR)

 

Board members: 7 including Strauss Zelnick (Executive Chairman), Sam Houser (Director), Dan Houser (Director)

 

Subsidiaries:

 

Rockstar Games Inc (Game Publishing)

 

Key execs: Sam Houser (President), Dan Houser (Chief Creative Officer)

 

Rockstar Studios Group: (Game Development)

 

Key position: (Head of Studios Group)

 

Number of Studios: 21

 

 

Financials:

 

Revenue: $1.3B

 

Cash: $500M

 

Total assets: $2B

 

 

Number of employees:

 

Rockstar Company Inc.- 200

 

Rockstar Games, Inc.- 500

 

Rockstar Studios Group.- 3,000

 

 

Headquarters: New York (legal and executive), London ( Rockstar International Limited)

 

Ownership: Public (95%), New Take-Two (5%)

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

Wonder what’s driving Take Two the last few days.

Anticipation of RDR2 or share buy back program...

 

Stocks could see a sharp hit around 8pm when Trump announces his Iran decision

combined with EA quarterly miss. They probably have been hit even more by Fortnite than Activision

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

Wonder whats driving Take Two the last few days.

Anticipation of RDR2 or share buy back program...

 

Stocks could see a sharp hit around 8pm when Trump announces his Iran decision

combined with EA quarterly miss. They probably have been hit even more by Fortnite than Activision

Share buy back program and potential shareholders valuation maximizing strategies: Spin-off, Split-off, Eco, M&A, Divestiture. With that said, Take-Two (TTWO) always survive.

 

Anyway what do you think of Take-Two spinning-off into 3 separate independent publicly traded companies?

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

Too much fantasy not going to happen

They will continue like now and eventually build or buy a few new studios under the Take 2 umbrella

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FlatFX

Tschut tschut

 

Back to 116

Let it rain ;)

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BLOOD

Flatfx: $200.00 possible this year.

 

New market capitalization projection (I have not done one in a while):

 

Right now:

 

* ATVI: $55B

* EA: $41B

* TTWO: $13B

 

 

End of 2018:

 

* ATVI: $60-71B

* EA: $48-55B

* TTWO: $17-22B

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FlatFX

Tough. 200$ just with 25 M copies sold of RDR2 in Q3 FY19

 

115-130$ prior E3

Catalysts while E3 will be RDR Online reveal. Outlook on the cash machine for the next 2 years.

 

Borderlands 3 might get a teaser trailer. Wont be released before mid of March 19 due to RDR2 success

 

My guess is that Q4 earnings will be in line with estimates at the lower end but they will increase FY 19 forecast from 2,5 to 2,8-3,0B turnover.

 

Plus we need answers whats coming after RDR2 and Borderlands 3.

- RDR2 PC Christmas 2019

- Bioshock 4 early 2020

- New IPs?

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FlatFX

Borderlands 3 reveal at E3 more or less confirmed

 

Walmart leaked unannounced titles for pre order ahead of E3

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

Great comment FlatFX. I also hope they actually do some M&As (not ZeniMax since that will be expensive). Take-Two have a great future and also it two bigger rivals.

Edited by BLOOD

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Zello
Posted (edited)

I want Disney to cancel it's Star Wars licence with EA and give it to Take Two or Ubisoft.

Edited by Zello

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BLOOD

I want Disney to cancel it's Star Wars licence with EA and give it to Take Two or Ubisoft.

Never going to happen lol.

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FlatFX

Take Two is not capable to produce 2-3 star wars titles in parallel.

It will be Activision or Ubisoft if they ever get out of the contract

Ubisoft is on the rise with just 8,66B in market cap.

Thats incredible cheap

 

Both Ubi and T2 could double within a year

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

I will love to see a vertically integrated or diversified gaming company. Activision Blizzard is doing that with the film and TV studios- Activision Blizzard Studios- Consumer Products- Activision Blizzard Consumer Products- however they are not big businesses yet and need to make that happen inorganically (M&A). The only US game company to do that was Acclaim Entertainmen. At one point they owned Valiant Comics. I will like to see Take-Two get into film and TV buying out A24 or Bleecker Street, re-enter the comic book business buying Archie or IDW Publishing. I can see a $10 million -budget- BioShock movie doing $200 million (A24 makes critically acclaimed and successful film). I can also see a GTA TV series. Take-Two will not only becoming a vertically integrated "core gaming business" and media company but the first successful one. And their valuation could even get bigger.

 

FlatFX: I think EA should keep it. They already owned another soon-to-be Disney franchise, The Simpsons since 2005 and that one of the most successful mobile games ever. And the have a dominance -always a cash machine- with EA Sports.

Edited by BLOOD

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Zello
Posted (edited)

FlatFX: I think EA should keep it. They already owned another soon-to-be Disney franchise, The Simpsons since 2005 and that one of the most successful mobile games ever. And the have a dominance -always a cash machine- with EA Sports.

Disney got pissed at EA for the lootbox situation in Battlefront II. They also cancelled the Amy Hennig Star wars game at visceral games as well as close visceral games so that they could refocus it and turn it into a multiplayer game.

 

I think Take Two could have a shot if they gave it to Hangar 13 lots of their employee were former lucasarts devs who worked on Star wars 1313 before it got cancelled.

 

Then get another studio or two to also work on a separate Star wars game.

Edited by Zello

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BLOOD

Zello: Interest point but I think there is likely a clause to the Star Wars deal and Disney ditching EA for a rival game company will be a breach same reason EA are the only ones to have The Simpsons game right since 2005. Anyway it will not impact their stock price since EA is so diversified and have many franchises, 30+ game studios with some of them being globally recognized like BioWare and DICE, have a dominance in sport games with EA Sports and a massive mobile game business. EA could likely retake it position as the largest independent publicly traded game company in terms of revenue and market capitalization in few years. Even if Take-Two or Ubisoft get the rights it will not help their respective stock price.

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

This topic was dead after $TTWO took a large hit and market visited hell... for a while. True, spirits were down.

Edited by Efreet

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

This topic was dead after $TTWO took a large hit and market visited hell... for a while. True, spirits were down.

I know right buddy good to see you back I was kind of getting interested in spin-off but I hope that never happens, come next week TTWO beat earnings, have a record pop, new logo for 25th anniversary, few reorganization before RDR2 release and breaking more records followed by more new ath. I can see them ending the year as a $22B gaming giant. I also expect more acquisition either to diversify revenue stream and/or to bolster their four main gaming units: Rockstar Games, 2K (Games and Sports), Private Division, and Social Point. And also their esport venture.

 

$180.00 or $220.00 year end. Long Live Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO)!

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

There wont be a beat in earnings unless they have been shifting revenue.

 

Investor will just focus on their forecast for FY 19

If they raise that from 2,5B stock will move in the ath range of 127$

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BLOOD

FlatFX: We shall see...Anyway incredible how Take-Two could be be bigger than the next 8 public game companies in the next few months and AMC, Lions Gate, and Viacom. I think from 2016 to now they went from $2B to $12B see that increase $2B every two months so $14-16B next few week and $20-22B end of year with great strategy for growth. I love this company.

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FlatFX

Tomorrow is the day

Write down your estimates

 

Net bookings Q4: 450M

FY19 Forecast: increase to 2,8B

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Jason

No Borderlands 3 at E3 according to Randy Pitchford, they apparently have other games to show at the conference.

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FlatFX

I hope they made some strong sales to distributors for stock in Q4

Actual real sales figures should be just around 420M

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BLOOD

I hope they made some strong sales to distributors for stock in Q4

Actual real sales figures should be just around 420M

I hope it there best year ever before being topped by FY19.

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BLOOD

https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/iifmdx2j

 

Note: Good one FlatFX

 

Happy 1st Birthday to this thread. Here is to many more years.

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