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BLOOD

Games Industry Discussion - Stocks, Markets...

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

Not a big impact tbh.....IMO.

 

Note: ATVI's Blizzard will be the one worrying about this genre or mode. Epic Games are private so will be hard to acquire but they can always poach the employees. And also a Blessing in Disguise.

 

Another note: Happy 50th page. Thank you all ❤

Edited by BLOOD

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Jason

Fortnite's having a gigantic impact, it's gone mainstream in a way that only a handful of games have ever done. It's completely dominating Twitch and video game streaming, it's concurrent player counts are quite possibly the highest in the world (definitely this part of the world) and it's still growing. It's proooooobably the flat out most popular game in the world right now and has become so addicting to people that people are leaving their old FPS games to collect dust. It remains to be seen what the situation is gonna be at the end of the year - I don't see it effecting a game like RDR2 for example but if Fortnite is still going strong come the launch of Black Ops 4 and Battlefield V? Could be concerning for Acti/EA.

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

How is it different from Battlegrounds in terms of popularity and gameplay? They look to be offering the same thing, only Fortnite is cartoonish graphics wise. I also believe that Take2 can have a chance in the free-to-play market with Private Division.

Edited by Efreet

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Jason
Posted (edited)

How is it different from Battlegrounds in terms of popularity and gameplay? They look to be offering the same thing, only Fortnite is cartoonish graphics wise. I also believe that Take2 can have a chance in the free-to-play market with Private Division.

 

In terms of gameplay Fortnite is third person only, much faster paced with shorter matches but the main thing is the building mechanic which is a massive difference. A lot of the top PUBG players and streamers consider Fortnite to have a higher skill ceiling because of the building. It's exploded into the mainstream essentially because Epic nailed every decision they made with it: it's F2P with zero pay to win, it's on all three major platforms, recently launched on mobile and is rumoured to be coming to Switch but most importantly and unlike PUBG it's been supported very, very well by Epic. Weekly patches with new guns and equipment, map updates, battle pass system, balancing, QoL features, etc etc.

Edited by Jason

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FlatFX

Agree and you could already see these effects in Q3 earnings

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

 

How is it different from Battlegrounds in terms of popularity and gameplay? They look to be offering the same thing, only Fortnite is cartoonish graphics wise. I also believe that Take2 can have a chance in the free-to-play market with Private Division.

 

In terms of gameplay Fortnite is third person only, much faster paced with shorter matches but the main thing is the building mechanic which is a massive difference. A lot of the top PUBG players and streamers consider Fortnite to have a higher skill ceiling because of the building. It's exploded into the mainstream essentially because Epic nailed every decision they made with it: it's F2P with zero pay to win, it's on all three major platforms, recently launched on mobile and is rumoured to be coming to Switch but most importantly and unlike PUBG it's been supported very, very well by Epic. Weekly patches with new guns and equipment, map updates, battle pass system, balancing, QoL features, etc etc.

 

 

I don't think any game made as free-to-play would be 'zero pay 2 win' or 'zero pay 2 progress faster'. For example, Grand Theft Auto Online falls into the second description.

 

Agree and you could already see these effects in Q3 earnings

 

I don't think so. Q3 was great when comparing YOY digital revenue growth. However, Take2 should seriously consider tapping into this free-to-play market through the Private Division label. Household AAA names like GTA and Red Dead aren't threatened by this market which has existed for a very long time now. Grand Theft Auto Online? One can argue that it can attract players to migrate, which could result in fewer shark card sales.

Edited by Efreet

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Jason

I don't think any game made as free-to-play would be 'zero pay 2 win' or 'zero pay 2 progress faster'. For example, Grand Theft Auto Online falls into the second description.

 

There's a few F2P games that have done it right, Fortnite being one, Valve's TF2 and Dota being the others that spring to mind. They tend to be from developers that have a cashcow they can fall back on - Valve with Steam and Epic with UE4.

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

Great comments folks. TTWO via PD could definitely do a PUBG or Fortnite-type game. Now that one of the advantage(s) of having multiple publishing labels. Go TTWO!

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

Another game in this battle royal universe has high chances of failing. Pugb is the basement and fortnite

was built on top of it.

Another game would have to be groundbraking attracting players from both titles pugb and fortnite.

We will see battle royal modes for games as a multiplayer option but new games built from scratch to conquer fortnite and pugb will fail big time.

Its the same story like with LoL and Dota

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BLOOD

Another game in this battle royal universe has high chances of failing. Pugb is the basement and fortnite

was built on top of it.

Another game would have to be groundbraking attracting players from both titles pugb and fortnite.

We will see battle royal modes for games as a multiplayer option but new games built from scratch to conquer fortnite and pugb will fail big time.

Its the same story like with LoL and Dota

I totally agree.

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Efreet

Zelnick commented on this Battle Royale trend when asked by an analyst during the Q3 earnings call. Here's what he said.

 

 

"I think more detail on game mechanic specifics really comes at the label level. But I would just observe that someone else's success is really interesting and we're obviously informed by what our competitors do. But our goal is to be as innovative as possible," said Zelnick. "Titles, even really good titles that are derivative never seem to do as well as innovations that are unexpected."

 

 

However, Zelnick doesn't completely write-off battle royale games from Take-Two labels either. "I don't see our labels being super excited about being derivative," said Zelnick. "That said of course we play in the world and are informed by what's going and bring consumers what they want."

 

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Tchuck

Do you guys remember when Fortnite decided to make its battle royale mode, and all industry experts claimed it would fail, that no way it would take space from PUBG, and how it was a blatant PUBG ripoff and all that?

 

Welp, looks like they didn't fail, and its growing massively in popularity. Good on Epic for noticing the potential, and running with it.

 

That being said, can't really imagine another battle royaleesque game to overtake either. However, I think Rockstar could do it, by adding a battle royale mode to Red Dead, complete with the wild animals in the frontier and whatnot. Could be an interesting setting, and the IP is already massive.

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Coin
Posted (edited)

I think it was a given that other companies were going to run with the BR mode after PUBG's overwhelming success. And I think it is a more tangible experience to try and replicate compared to say Minecraft (another title that hugely, unexpectly too, successful) where most competitors were poor quality quick cash ins.

 

I hesitate to applaud Epic though for Fortnite's BR mode success, because whilst impressive success even as a free to play game, the actual Fortnite (the one people pay money for) has suffered as a perhaps unintended consequence there of.

 

The way the whole thing is starting to get very reminiscent of COD vs Halo/Battlefield arguments back in the day. So many fanboys of their respective games going at it, lol.

Edited by Coin

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FlatFX
Posted (edited)

so this means data in this tool actually shows bad signals for Take Two?

 

I wouldnt be suprised.

After Q3 being a "just in range earnings release" with all of the 3 big companies we will see a bigger effect for Take Two even in Q4.

 

Player base in GTA should have dropped significantly from the Christmas quarter (see steamcharts) and battle royal games are shifting interest from their installed base games.

Dont expect any good numbers from T2 on their Q4 call. It will be the bottom line of their forecase

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3339157-take-two-extends-slump-rival-survival-games-apply-heat

 

5% is what they say and the stock decreases by ~5% ... Analysts influence on the stock market. If somebody writes tomorrow they see 20% upside potential with RDR2 whats going to happen?...

Edited by FlatFX

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

I browsed M Science website and they're basically a company that sells consumer and financial data to other firms and they've a platform for charting and data mining. If their software has the ability to data mine in-game spending habits across the industry, even to some acceptable accuracy, then that would definitely give institutional investors a higher advantage which they already have. The thing is, they've just recently started issuing reports on video game companies.

 

As for Q4, Taek2 guided for net bookings in the range $410M-460M, while current Street consensus is $451M. I think they will be able to beat their own guidance and The Street combined, and given that the stock has been range-bound for a long time now, chances are that it will break higher after earnings and will have a good run in anticipation of Red Dead, NBA2K19 and Borderlands 3. Current atmosphere doesn't seems exciting with only Grand Theft Auto Online and NBA 2K18 doing most of the work for them, but companies, whatever their size, move through these cycles from time to time.

Edited by Efreet

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FlatFX
Posted (edited)

Would like to see some news for RDR2 or Borderlands 3 this weekend ahead of their S&P500 listing.

They will be exposed to even higher fluctiations and currently lights are not shining bright ...!

 

Meantime sold Activision at 78$. Their down to 74$ again. Anything near 70$ its time to reinvest.

 

Also aiming at Disney. They announced yesterday that they are going full frontal against Netflix with their new streaming division.

If Disney is able to turn this business into a profit and hell they have the portfolio to do that their could be substantial gains in the stock

Edited by FlatFX

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

\

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3339157-take-two-extends-slump-rival-survival-games-apply-heat

 

5% is what they say and the stock decreases by ~5% ... Analysts influence on the stock market. If somebody writes tomorrow they see 20% upside potential with RDR2 whats going to happen?...

 

Not the first time. I saw a stock going down from $120 to $90s in two days when a Short seller published a thesis that the company is overvalued and he's currently short. That same stock is now trading in $140s regardless of whether it's richly valued at the present or not. And I don't get the 'light release' comment. One could've said the same thing in 2017 with no new non-annual AAA releases post-RDR2 delay, and we all know that TTWO and other publishers, ATVI and EA, usually have their releases scheduled in Fall-Winter, with a silent period in Spring-Summer. Nothing has fundamentally changed in regard to the 2018-2020 prospects of the company, so I'd say that this correction is a result of overreaction and probably manipulation.

Edited by Efreet

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Efreet

Want to share this small piece I wrote to reflect my current thoughts on $TTWO.

 

original_116409980.png

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

Yeah, I think that PUGB and Fortnite are more threatening to AAA Shooter games like Call Of Duty than open-world crime games like Grand Theft Auto Online. However, the reaction in the stock market is overdone, I believe, and these large publishers have the resources to remain stable and work against such threats. I think the lure in these Battle Royale games are the easy entry for players and the lower price tag (PUGB) or the freeimum model (Fortnite), plus the cartoonish and wacky gameplay contrary to the complexities and realism found in AAA games.

Edited by Efreet

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FlatFX

impact is dramatically because minutes / hours spent playing games by each individual is shifting to Fortnite and PUGB

 

Ergo less time spent with other titles in the industry through all genres.

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Efreet
Posted (edited)

$TTWO is currently pulling another $ATVI in that the latter consolidated inside the box seen below for 7 months before breaking out. After the breakout in $ATVI, the correction that followed only tested the high of the consolidation box (breakout test); shakeout.

 

atvi.png

 

 

Here's a look into the consolidation box for $TTWO. It's now in its 6 month. Watch for a breakout in April, followed by an earnings correction similar to $ATVI's, only to test the high of the consolidation box, and then to trade in $130-135 by June. The April breakout will probably be a combination of an earnings anticipation, new game announcement and Red Dead marketing. Keeping all that in mind, the current price is a steal for what lies ahead, I believe.

 

ttwo.png

Edited by Efreet

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FlatFX

lets hope this will be the case. I would like to sell my stake in T2 within the next 1,5 years.

 

Pulled out with my lever of Activision at 78$. This was a perfect hit. Maybe reentering today.

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BLOOD
Posted (edited)

I will just buy AAPL (🍎 Apple) and forget about everything else 😂😎

 

Note: iPhone, iPad, and Mac growth and super cycle, Services division, nearly $300 Billion in cash, largest profit entity in history, Apple Music, Apple Watch, new consumer electronics/hardware categories and softwares etc.

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

Actually its not the best idea to buy Apple unless your aiming long investment taking the dividends

 

They lost the race for streaming and creating tv content.

Homepod sucks. Apple watch is a useless product.

I was a Apple fanboy from second one. I hate Android on mobile phones but I will switch my laptop back to windows and get rid of my iPad. The apple eco system has gone from I cant live without it to I find better alternatives in the market.

 

Sure they have endless cash but with no clear strategy just revamping products and following competitors their growth is limited. Soon they will be worth 1 trillion. I expect a steep set back when they reach this barrier

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BLOOD

FlatFX: Apple has a quopoly in TV used to have a monopoly but that lacked software until they created tvOS few years ago, and also dominate wearables mostly with Watch and then there are AirPods and Beats. Apple exec Eddy Cue said on Monday at SXSW that they will not buy Disney or Netflix but create the Next one of these companies (largest acquisition to-date was Beat for $3 Billion). I am a Google fan BTW.

 

Apple just made an history today with Fortnite on iPhone X [well I see why Qualcomm/QCOM wants them to not make their own SoC- which is so powerful]

https://www.google.ie/search?q=fortnite&oq=fortn&aqs=chrome.0.0j69i60j5j69i57j0.3940j0j7&client=ms-android-alcatel&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

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Spider-Vice

The iPhones aren't quicker only due to Apple's SoC but also to an unified operating system tailored to ONE set of hardware. Qualcomm has been killing with their latest Snapdragon offerings, it's just that Android is a whole different beast.

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FlatFX

Apple can do what they want in regards to TV content they dont have a setup to conquer with Netflix and Amazon and in the future Disney.

 

Apple is a technology company and not a content creating company.

 

Airpods are good but thats nice to have and not contributing a lot to their overall numbers. Same for Apple Watch. Wearables are nice to have but you dont really need them.

Have not met a single person who said he cant live without his smart watch

 

Also the iPhone X was a big disappointment for me. Instead I bought an iPhone 8 to replace my broken 6.

Performance from these phones are so good nowadays that the refresh cycle to buy a new phone shifts from 1 year to 2-3 years

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BLOOD

@ FlatFX: Apple is a Consumer Electronics/Hardware and Software Technology company. Netflix is a currently king of streaming but their valuation is just insane, and Amazon is am e-commerce and cloud computing company that now expanding into every industries and so far both are bleeding money esp. Netflix.

 

@Spider: Yeah Google poach one of the founders of Apple's SoC division so Android and it various phones can be a powerful platform as iOS and iPhone.

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