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BLOOD

Games Industry Discussion - Stocks, Markets...

Recommended Posts

BLOOD

If Take-Two announce an all-stock -taking advantage of their stock price before it falls further- acquisition of Zenimax or Square Enix tomorrow, the stock will get to $170.00 heck an announcement of Social Point buying Zeptolab or Madfinger or some other mobile game developer that will take it up to $130.00. Well still just only a dream 😂

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FlatFX

Blood you are drifting away into fantasy world

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BLOOD

Yeah I love to, real life is a depression for me. Anyhow, it sad that the company is getting punished so bad upon all the price targets, meanwhile EA [99% of revenue and profit is from licensed game titles]. I hope RDR2, 2K new game, Social Point, and NBA 2K League make all this short sellers look stupid.

 

http://www.pocketgamer.biz/news/67512/take-two-financials-q3-fy18/

 

Note: Interestingly, 2K relaunched NHL on mobile with NHL SuperCard 2018.

Edited by BLOOD

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Efreet

Earnings for ATVI and NVDA after hours. The market is in correction mode and Nasdaq is down a little over 4% today. Such wild moves!

 

EDIT: Both are up after hours, but given market conditions, these will probably fade when trading resumes provided that the market continues correcting, which seems to to be the trend since all indices have fallen more points than the latest large drop.

 

$TTWO was downed around 5-6% as a result of earnings surprise, and then was taken down more with today's market. Stock is basically trading at a price that was reached in September last year! Talk about erasing 5 months of gains!

Edited by Efreet

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BLOOD

😨😳😥🤔😱

 

Recession incoming?

 

 

Note: This was supposed to be TTWO's best year ever 😥

Edited by BLOOD

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Efreet

I'd not mind 30% discount on current valuations. What comes after discounts? Another bull wave and even more higher valuations, but of course, at increased revenue.

 

:)

Edited by Efreet

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BLOOD

Efreet: I know right..I was think there some time ago, Take-Two (TTWO) cannot become a $30-50 Billion company in just one year even my high $25 Billion this year I think it reasonable for a $2 Billion annual revenue company like TTWO to finish the year in the ~$20 Billion range- if this mad volatility/correction continues- I will say between $16-18 Billion. Anyway these sort of developments also punish TTWO stock a lot- 2008 before GTA IV release, global recession and 2012 the worst year in history for gaming stocks- There is no way TTWO does not eventually reach $300.00 and even cross that unless two things happened: stock split or a takeover [i so doubt bought will happen but anything can happen]. Anyhow, Here is still hoping it- just second month of the year lol- their best year ever, and a fantastic 25th Year as as company [Dayuum I will be 24 in two weeks, almost as old lol]. Long Live Take-Two (TTWO)!

 

 

Note: Mods I actually don't want any renaming of this thread anymore 😂

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FlatFX

Considering 6 years in upswing these moves are not wild

 

We are going to see further corrections

Nevertheless the complete picture does not look this dark

 

In many cases these downswings are used to kick out small nervous investors. In 5 years owning take 2 i probably had this situation already 3,4 times

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BLOOD

Imagine a future were TTWO spun off it "core" gaming business then become an export and media company. I will say their gaming business -even with all these corrections- are worth $15 Billion- TTWO gives away $1 Billion for the new publicly traded entities, the company is slowly reaching $2 Billion in cash so in this crazy future they already have it- And we do sum of parts:

 

* Corporate Take-Two: $2 Billion

* Rockstar Games: $7 Billion

* 2K: $5 Billion

* trademarks, other assets:$1 Billion

* cash: $2.1 Billion est. 2019

 

The new Take-Two (esports, media, SP 😁) will be bigger than Rovio and Zynga. A publicly traded R* will be bigger than Capcom, Sega, and Square Enix, CD Projekt. And A publicly traded 2K will be the biggest company of it kind. That awesome buybacks inspired this comment 😀 [that the first time in their history, excluding the stock split in 2005, and buying Icahn's 11% stake, this is a distribution to all their shareholders].

 

 

The Housers if still with TTWO and these spin off events become reality, will likely own a small stake since shares will be recapitalized and distributed [it will be a gift from Strauss Zelnick- that is if they are still around]. Tbh I see this happening before the end of his second decade with the company in 2024.

Edited by BLOOD

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Efreet

By the way, T2 announced on their earnings report that they bought back 1.06M shares of the company's stock on an average price of $103. What do you think the significance of this? I'd not imagine that they will buy all these shares at that valuation if they don't believe that the company is worthy of this value, even if'd be the fair value 1-2 years from now.

Edited by Efreet

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BLOOD

$120 Million for 1.06 Million shares a great move in the share buybacks and a way to reward all shareholders. It is going to take the shares outstanding -count- down to 113 Million but still finish 2018 with 118 Million shares outstanding. And another great thing is their cash -will be $2 Billion next year- was just $1.26 Billion few months ago and now up $1.32 Billion. Strauss Zelnick said the terrific corporate development team -which is undisputed imo- looks at every thing in the market. Social Point is a "Zynga of Europe" game company which if the deal was dome today will be a much higher price but they acquired it for $250 Million. They know how to pay the right price and not overpay like Activision and EA. I won't be surprised if via SP they buy Imangi Studios -developer of Temple Run- or Zeptolab -developer of Cut the Rope- for less than $50 Million. They have always had the best corporate development and strategy team ever (20% stake in Bungie in the late 90s, and 2% of Twitch which Amazon will late buy for almost $1 Billion).

 

Note: Pre-market TTWO is at $105.00 I think ATVI helped them 😀👏

Edited by BLOOD

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Efreet

Nah, man, let things bleed and we end up with TTWO at $8-9B which will be a great valuation to buy at. I've turned bearish in regard to the market until further notice, haha.

 

:evilgrin:

Edited by Efreet

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FlatFX

This is purely a technical sale you don’t see money floating into save harbors

 

The selloff is driven by big investment fonds and banks who bet huge money on falling valuations.

They started the game followed by technical sales and small investors who are feared

 

Once they sell their bets you will see a big turnaround

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Efreet

If we talk about technicals, then they don't look attractive at this point. TTWO's chart shows price action falling below 100-day moving average, which didn't happen since 2016. If you zoom out at the stock's chart for a longer period, you'd find that it usually visit 200-day after dipping below the 100. This means we're talking about a visit to $95. Correction isn't over yet. Nasdaq and SP500 are 10% off ATH, and I'd say that we could go down 5% more in all indices at least. Not yet a bear market by definition. A 20% correction and higher would be one.

Edited by Efreet

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BLOOD

With the correction I will restate few things:

 

* Market Capitalization: $9-13 Billion in 2018, $13-16 Billion in 2019, $20-25 Billion in the 2020s, and $50 Billion in 2030s [if not acquired]

 

* Stock Price: $98-160 in 2018 and 2019, $200.00 in 2020, $300.00 in the 2020s.

 

* Revenue: $3-4 Billion in the 2020s, $5 Billion in the 2030s.

 

* Cash: $2 Billion in 2019-2020, $4 Billion in the 2020s-2030s.

 

* Operating Cash and Income: $1-2 Billion in 2020s.

 

Strauss Zelnick will be Chairman and CEO until he decide to sell it or split it into three public companies (see my above comment- eight lines away).

Edited by BLOOD

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BLOOD

I think the correction is going to continue but with today's close for the weekend, it shows that Take-Two (TTWO) should be worth more than $100.00 and the likes of Zynga (ZNGA) and Glu Mobile (GLUU) should be five or more times smaller. All in all the TASTE [Take-Two, Activision, Snap, Twitter, EA) are going to be the next bullish stocks on par with/ better than FAANNG [Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Nvidia, Google]. No matter how long it takes or the consequences onward to $300.00+ TTWO!

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BLOOD

Publishing labels by revenue: $480 Million

 

* 2K: $240 Million [NBA 2K18, WWE 2K18, XCOM 2, Mafia III, CIV VI]

 

* Rockstar Games: $215 Million [GTA V and GTA Online]

 

* Social Point: $25 Million [Dragon City, Monster Legends]

 

Percentage: 2K-50%, R*-45%, SP-5%

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Efreet

Technicals-wise, SP500 had a strong bounce at 200-day moving average as in figure below. The index got oversold on RSI level and no wonder that $TTWO, after it was beaten down and became very oversold, was one of the stocks to make a strong rebound and closed at $108-109 resistance. Algos and traders usually look for these moving average support levels to buy at. Does this mean markets are turning bullish again? I'm not sure, but many stocks on my list (TTWO, ATVI, BABA, SHOP) haven't fallen below their support/breakout prices. Volatility is back on the menu after a very calm 2017 market, that's for sure, and this could be just a correction reacting sharply and decisively against the consistent January rally. Greed and fear, gringos.

 

trtrtr.png

 

Finally, I'd say that by the end of this month, market direction will be more clear. Stay safe, and LONG LIVE TTWO!

Edited by Efreet

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FlatFX

You always keep your head up Blood, thats good, but Take Two at $300 will not happen in the next 4 years.

 

RDR2 is the only catalyst for growth. Success and $200 is realistic with around 25-30M sold copies.

Just decent success and Take Two is not worth more than $150 for the next years to come till we see a GTA 6

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BLOOD

http://ir.take2games.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=86428&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2FwaS50ZW5rd2l6YXJkLmNvbS9maWxpbmcueG1sP2lwYWdlPTEyMDMxNjM5JkRTRVE9MCZTRVE9MCZTUURFU0M9U0VDVElPTl9FTlRJUkUmc3Vic2lkPTU3

 

 

Note: Very interesting to read or take a look. And thanks FlatFX.

 

 

I notice something phenomenon this week during all the correction, TTWO which the global investment community see as #3 in gaming outside Asia

while it stock price was falling squeezed and impacted Ubisoft, Zynga [which became profitable for the first time ever], Glu Mobile, CD Projekt et.al all these competing game companies which are smaller than them. The correction now make Zynga more cheap from $3 Billion market cap to $2 Billion, and Ubisoft from $8 Billion to $7 Billion etc. It same way if EA #2 fall in stock price it affects TTWO (vice-versa). That makes me think if TTWO gets to a market cap of $20 or 30 Billion+ and their smaller rivals are also getting bigger any fall will greatly impact those companies. This correction now make it officially that it a ATVI, EA, and TTWO -three horse race- gaming world.

Edited by BLOOD

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BLOOD

Interestingly in that above link doen toward the end of page, Take-Two just enter a big financial pact with Wells Fargo and few other banks, and all it subsidiaries and affiliates are the debt guarantors.

Edited by BLOOD

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FlatFX

Wednesday / Thursday is make or break day.

 

If economy data proves to be too good investors will start another sell off based on the fears of faster and more hikes for interest rates. And this one is probably going to be worse than the first.

 

On the other side guidelines within or below estimations could spark a huge turnaround.

 

Judging about it, economy is doing very well and I would suggest to buckle up for another -10% this week.

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Efreet

I agree, FlatFX. The 2017 market was one of a kind and 2018 starts with a sharp correction that spiked volatility. This correction, and market direction, will take more time until it's resolved. Day and swing traders, who primarily rely on technical analysis in entering and exiting positions, are now in a time when they shine the most. Anyone, who liquidated all of his/her positions, is definitely praying for a larger discount on valuations. Interesting times, gringos!

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BLOOD

I hope the market rally continues all through the week, and great to see my lovely TTWO above $110.00 again. Onward to $300.00, TTWO!

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FlatFX

no way Blood. Futures are already negative for today. Economy data tomorrow and thursday will prove the stability of the stock market.

 

My feeling says I should sell and take the profit. Definately a tough decision. But I think Im going to sell today and stay out for 2-3 month

Edited by FlatFX

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Efreet

You should've sold at the $120s peak, FlatFX, haha. We knew that it was about to happen, but we likely had an insider who informed us about Redemption II delay just hours before it was revealed, leaving $TTWO to drop from $128 down to $120. My advice isn't to sell if your horizon is years away, like 2020+, and you're not worrying about a US/global economical rescission. In a booming economy, entertainment will keep thriving and TTWO's share of the industry will continue to increase with time, leading it worth much more than what it does now.

Edited by Efreet

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FlatFX

that's easy to say, but in reality you never manage to sell at the highest point possible.

 

I earned more than 700% with T2 and still believe $200 is a realistic target for them to achieve if RDR2 is a big success. In my point of view chances for another selloff are currently higher than a bounce back to $130

So I rather sell now and buy in cheaper at a later point of time around E3 beginning of June to jump on the hype train for RDR2 and Borderlands 3

Edited by FlatFX

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Efreet

700%?! Sell and move on, man. Haha. You held into it very well for maybe 5 years now, and thankfully, you didn't do this.

 

:)

Edited by Efreet

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