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European Politics Discussion


Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

 

Brexit could set a precedent to show others the door in face of the EU lie 'you're better in than out'. 

They've done a real good job at showing how beneficial leaving the EU is, I'm sure many other countries would love to follow suit!

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Ireland is predicted to leave the EU after the UK does.

Ireland's biggest trading partners are the US and the UK, of which neither'd be a part of the EU.

Also, the EU's aim is to have a unified tax rate of 35% for corporation tax meaning Amazon and Google will move their offices to the UK.

Ireland will also be the only English speaking country left in the EU and they'd represent just 1% that population.

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4 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

Ireland is predicted to leave the EU after the UK does.

Given that polling suggests over 90% of the Irish population are in favour of remaining in the EU, this is unlikely. In fact, the Brexit process has reduced levels if Euroscepticism in Ireland to an all time low.

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1 hour ago, sivispacem said:

Given that polling suggests over 90% of the Irish population are in favour of remaining in the EU, this is unlikely. In fact, the Brexit process has reduced levels if Euroscepticism in Ireland to an all time low.

It's not just Eire, the level of Euroscepticism has dropped across the entire EU, including the UK.  It's almost as if the Eurosceptics across the rest of the EU have seen the great job the UK has made of Brexit, and decided it's really a terrible idea after all.

 

Euroscepticism_img.png

 

More proof Brexit is now a project for the minority.

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The Ireland departure was an idea I saw explored by Brexiteers in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.  They have long since abandoned that.  If Ireland was really about to leave the EU, then the whole Irish backstop would have been a far easier pill to swallow for the British, because there would have been a predictable time frame to when the backstop would no longer be necessary.

 

There is no denying that Ireland was scared sh*tless when the referendum results were announced, but that doesn't mean they were unprepared.  Unlike the British, the Irish had actually prepared plans for a Leave scenario.  Even to a point that it took the EU by surprise, who had prepared plans of their own for the eventually.  Indeed, in the first six months after the referendum, the Irish were talking privately with the British about the future.

 

This was at the same time that the EU were laying out their position for Brexit negotiations.  Here they gave Spain a veto over Gibraltar, but did not afford one to Ireland.  When the EU learnt of what the Irish were doing, they compromised on their position, and allowed an effective veto to the Irish over the Northern Irish border.  Since about winter 2016/17, the Irish were firmly in the EU27 camp.

 

The EU could stand firm in negotiations, because they were far better prepared than the British, because PM Cameron ordered his civil servants to explicitly not prepare for Brexit negotiations.  His fear was that, if the referendum ended in Remain, which he expected, it would look embarrassing to have preparations for the Brexit negotiations that ended up not being necessary.  Which makes me think, that I would not be surprised if there were no plans for the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, if they voted for independence.  Which would likely have given the Scottish an edge in the talks.

 

Having laid out their position in the late summer of 2016, almost two years before the British finally decided on their position, it meant the EU was far less willing to compromise.  The EU isn't trying to make an example of the UK, the UK was just a bad negotiator.  Which I am sure frustrated a lot of British diplomats.

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It's not surprising the UK is bad, and the EU good, at negotiating. The last forty years of our trade deals have been negotiated by Brussels. They've got lots of practice, and frankly we don't. The agreement Boris was so chuffed with delivering is frankly awful for the UK; May's actually did a better job of a coherent forward policy and that's saying something given here was abysmal too.

 

That's why it's the height of wishful thinking to expect the UK to get any kind of favourable trade deals for the foreseeable post Brexit future. It'll take us half a decade to determine our arse from our elbow.

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It's not like British diplomats were not involved in those trade negotiations by the EU with third countries.  The problem is that those diplomats were shut out of Brexit negotiations.  So the diplomats, the UK actually had, that actually had experience in the field, were not called on, because the fear was that their position was too pro-EU.

 

And given how they were treated, and what was thought of them, it is unlikely they will be called on for say US trade negotiations.  Or that they would answer the call, if they were.

Edited by Svip
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Ah yes but you guys seem to be forgetting the hope factor that ilovebender.com loves to tout about as if it was gospel. And you have also failed to provide videos with your point of views, giving him an automatic win in the debate.

 

Anyone that would think Ireland would be the next to leave the EU is a person that needs sectioning, as they've gone full reality-rejection mode. 

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11 hours ago, Tchuck said:

Ah yes but you guys seem to be forgetting the hope factor that ilovebender.com loves to tout about as if it was gospel. And you have also failed to provide videos with your point of views, giving him an automatic win in the debate.

I think the automatic win comes from UK's leaving the EU making any pro EU rhetoric null and void since they seem to think the EU can do no wrong because they've bought into an 'EU dream' to unify Europe and despite what they say, UK's leaving so they've lost anyway.

Truth be told, if anybody did listen to them, there'd be riots in the streets, so nobody's going to listen to them. They're not going to reverse Brexit.

You have to understand the EU's like NAFTA but not since NAFTA hasn't opened the borders allowing for freedom of movement or adopted a single currency or follow a shared legislate singing an anthem and waving a flag.

The EU is just a trade union that got out of hand.

With economies such as United States compared to Mexico, they know better than to share a currency or have open borders.

The EU like the USSR is going to fall because once it stops growing, it'll start imploding; and Brexit is the first step.

The reason however why I don't feel Poland or Spain's exit from the EU noises as of late is because, unlike UK, Spain and Poland's far right are the ones making these noises. UK however is getting the exit passed by UK's centre right. After Brexit, who knows who'd be wanting what in the EU then? Maybe more centre parties in countries in the EU may offer their voters an in/out EU referendum too?

Edited by ilovebender.com
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If anything, it looks like more countries want to join than leave, specifically Albania and Macedonia are frustrated that their application process hasn't started yet, because it was blocked by several EU members, who may be a bit wary about allowing new members in.

 

But notions of referendums of EU membership in other EU member states so far appear to have little appetite.  So did the notion of the Brexit referendum in 2015, but Cameron used it to appease the far-right flank of the Tory party.  So it's the same kind of politicians making noise in other EU member states, that made noise in the UK before 2016.  They only handed the job of actually leaving the EU to less far-right prime ministers (with the exception of Johnson, I suppose), once they realised that they had no idea how to actually deliver Brexit.

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10 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

I think the automatic win comes from UK's leaving the EU making any pro EU rhetoric null and void 

That's not really how discourse works.

 

10 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

You have to understand the EU's like NAFTA but not 

One of these two statements is true.

 

10 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

UK however is getting the exit passed by UK's centre right.

More right, less centre these days.

 

10 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

Maybe more centre parties in countries in the EU may offer their voters an in/out EU referendum too?

If current polling is anything to go by, we're seeing the chances of further referenda on EU membership declining still further.

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1 hour ago, sivispacem said:

If current polling is anything to go by, we're seeing the chances of further referenda on EU membership declining still further.

More chance of other European nations having referenda on entering the EU to be fair.  (Scotland and NI being two notable cases, let's not forget Gibraltar having a thought it may leave as a Scottish colony.)  More members of the former Yugoslav states and now the North Macedonia situation has been resolved, it's not out of the question either (although Greece won't be happy).  There's also the possibility that Ukraine will split as part of a peace settlement there and Western Ukraine may well fancy the protection the EU offers.

 

The remains of the UK are likely as well, in the mid term, when the reality of letting the right wing have their moment of glory really begins to hit home.

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1 hour ago, Smith John said:

Polls are most definitely to be trusted

By and large yes, they are. I don't think anyone pretends they're infallible, but most polling is pretty accurate assuming the sample size is decent and they're not making stupid extrapolations.

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SNP would have to convince Spain to not veto, UK to give a legal referendum and Scotland to go for independence;

No one in Scotland is saying Indy Ref 2 apart from the SNP and while they're saying this, they're not getting things done like running Scotland.

 

Scotland, haven't got the money to be independent because they over spend making them spend 7 times more than anywhere else in the whole of the UK because in Scotland public spending is the highest anywhere in the UK; if they left the UK they'd have to have an even tighter austerity than any Tory's ever imposed on the UK just to balance the books, Scotland spend too much and don't earn enough of what they spend so that's why no one's taking the SNP serious down here in London.

 

Scotland's not leaving the UK, neither is NI.

This is my prediction - I also predict the EU will fall too. It's a failed project. If it didn't fail, then why do we have Brexit?

Edited by ilovebender.com
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9 hours ago, sivispacem said:

By and large yes, they are. I don't think anyone pretends they're infallible, but most polling is pretty accurate assuming the sample size is decent and they're not making stupid extrapolations.

You really do struggle with defeat, don't you? I don't blame you, I would too. However, I wouldn't go to the extremes you do to write books on a game forum in an attempt to convince the winning side they were wrong. That said, I do admire your devotion and conviction. Passion is always a good thing, regardless of non-violent views.

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9 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

SNP would have to convince Spain to not veto

Why would Spain want to veto? They'd probably relish the opportunity to regain North Sea fishing rights, assuming they're not sold off for £1.50 and a nudie mag during the EU trade negotiation process. 

 

9 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

No one in Scotland is saying Indy Ref 2 apart from the SNP 

Who have near-total hegemonic domination of both the Scottish constituencies in Westminster and the Scottish Parliament. 

 

9 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

they're not getting things done like running Scotland.

I'm not really sure where you're getting these Daily Expressisms from (maybe I just answered my own question?) I'd argue that, in most metrics, the SNPs running of devolved matters North of the border has been vastly more competent than the last three years of Conservative government from Westminster.

 

9 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

making them spend 7 times more than anywhere else in the whole of the UK 

Whilst it's true that Scotland spends more public money per capita than England or Wales, it's not even remotely close to seven times as much. It's actually 17% more. And it's still less than Northern Ireland, at a whopping 21%.

 

9 hours ago, ilovebender.com said:

if they left the UK they'd have to have an even tighter austerity than any Tory's ever imposed on the UK just to balance the books

I think Scotland's counterargument to this would be that their mineral wealth- mostly from oil and gas- would be centred North of the border in both practical terms (IE the extraction process) and in terms of financial base (IE operating locations of the companies responsible for extraction, processing, refining and sale). The latter of these sees a lot of state revenue drawn into Westminster's coffers through London based companies and therefore accounted for centrally. I'm not fully convinced of the long term viability of the North Sea oil fields or of the SNPs maths, mind.

 

They're also likely to institute further changes to the tax regime if they're independent. Scotland hasn't diverged too far from the rest of the UK on tax matters despite them bring a devolved power as they've wanted to avoid both higher rates, and the kinds of confusion  a two tier system produces, that could dissuade investment over elsewhere in the UK. That's not as much of a consideration if they're independent.

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12 minutes ago, sivispacem said:

Why would Spain want to veto? They'd probably relish the opportunity to regain North Sea fishing rights, assuming they're not sold off for £1.50 and a nudie mag during the EU trade negotiation process. 

 

Who have near-total hegemonic domination of both the Scottish constituencies in Westminster and the Scottish Parliament. 

 

I'm not really sure where you're getting these Daily Expressisms from (maybe I just answered my own question?) I'd argue that, in most metrics, the SNPs running of devolved matters North of the border has been vastly more competent than the last three years of Conservative government from Westminster.

 

Whilst it's true that Scotland spends more public money per capita than England or Wales, it's not even remotely close to seven times as much. It's actually 17% more. And it's still less than Northern Ireland, at a whopping 21%.

 

I think Scotland's counterargument to this would be that their mineral wealth- mostly from oil and gas- would be centred North of the border in both practical terms (IE the extraction process) and in terms of financial base (IE operating locations of the companies responsible for extraction, processing, refining and sale). The latter of these sees a lot of state revenue drawn into Westminster's coffers through London based companies and therefore accounted for centrally. I'm not fully convinced of the long term viability of the North Sea oil fields or of the SNPs maths, mind.

 

They're also likely to institute further changes to the tax regime if they're independent. Scotland hasn't diverged too far from the rest of the UK on tax matters despite them bring a devolved power as they've wanted to avoid both higher rates, and the kinds of confusion  a two tier system produces, that could dissuade investment over elsewhere in the UK. That's not as much of a consideration if they're independent.

Whatever you said; just spells denial.

 

Come back when Scotland vote for independence.

 

Oil and gas in today's world of wind power and solar power and renewables?

Anyway, as I say, denial that SNP aren't 45% out of 100% and that indy ref 2 isn't going to happen.

Of course, you'd say anything, literally, anything to go against Westminster rule of the UK, so, again, who cares what a hater fabricator of the facts says thinking Spain wants Scottish waters.

 

Why do you hate Westminster?

Using this doll, can you point to where Westminster and democracy touched you? Because you're acting awfully salty against London atm, honestly, you're acting like a dick towards London; Pro Brussels, Pro break up of the UK, like hey man, f*ck you.

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1 hour ago, ilovebender.com said:

Whatever you said; just spells denial.

So you're not going to actually address my post at all then. Remind me, why are you even posting in D&D?

And no, ranting about "the electorate" doesn't constitute an answer.

 

1 hour ago, ilovebender.com said:

Oil and gas in today's world of wind power and solar power and renewables?

The UK's energy generation mix is 40-45% natural gas. It's the single largest source of power in the UK by a significant margin, and is likely to remain so for the significant future despite the increases in renewable energy, due in part to the continuing decline in nuclear power. Maybe when the three new stations come online we'll see natural gas drop below 35%, but even they're looking less and less likely.

 

And there's much more to both oil and gas than simple power generation. The vast majority of UK homes are gas heated, and a significant proportion use gas for cooking. Both oil and gas are vital in industrial processes; oil in particular for the making of a wide variety of plastics, composites and other raw materials. No viable alternatives for kerosene or naptha based aircraft fuels (Jet A/Jet B respectively) have yet emerged. Almost all the UKs naval surface vessels are COGAG powered- that's gas driven turbines using what is basically aircraft fuels. 

 

1 hour ago, ilovebender.com said:

Anyway, as I say, denial that SNP aren't 45% out of 100% 

If the 43.6% of the vote the Conservatives for nationally gives them an overwhelming mandate, then 45.2% of the total vote in Scotland and the 8% swing (compared to a paltry 1.2% for the Tories) is definitely worth sitting up and paying attention to.

 

1 hour ago, ilovebender.com said:

 Why do you hate Westminster?

Why do you come up with these ridiculous, fabricated straw men? It's really a fundamental expression of your inate stupidity that you can't engage with another poster without distilling their position into a binary choice between "loving this" and "hating that". It's the kind of nuance I expect from a preschool age child.

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1 hour ago, sivispacem said:

So you're not going to actually address my post at all then. Remind me, why are you even posting in D&D?

And no, ranting about "the electorate" doesn't constitute an answer.

 

The UK's energy generation mix is 40-45% natural gas. It's the single largest source of power in the UK by a significant margin, and is likely to remain so for the significant future despite the increases in renewable energy, due in part to the continuing decline in nuclear power. Maybe when the three new stations come online we'll see natural gas drop below 35%, but even they're looking less and less likely.

 

And there's much more to both oil and gas than simple power generation. The vast majority of UK homes are gas heated, and a significant proportion use gas for cooking. Both oil and gas are vital in industrial processes; oil in particular for the making of a wide variety of plastics, composites and other raw materials. No viable alternatives for kerosene or naptha based aircraft fuels (Jet A/Jet B respectively) have yet emerged. Almost all the UKs naval surface vessels are COGAG powered- that's gas driven turbines using what is basically aircraft fuels. 

 

If the 43.6% of the vote the Conservatives for nationally gives them an overwhelming mandate, then 45.2% of the total vote in Scotland and the 8% swing (compared to a paltry 1.2% for the Tories) is definitely worth sitting up and paying attention to.

 

Why do you come up with these ridiculous, fabricated straw men? It's really a fundamental expression of your inate stupidity that you can't engage with another poster without distilling their position into a binary choice between "loving this" and "hating that". It's the kind of nuance I expect from a preschool age child.

Whatever.

 

Come back when you win an election or referendum; come back when you talk about what 51% or more want and don't be the idiot who thinks 45.2% matters otherwise I'd ask you to go back to school to finish math. 49.9% isn't even a majority so to Hell with bringing about what 45.2% want since it'll go against what 54.8% want - do the math based on your own data.

 

There are more important things to worry about than stopping Brexit and Scottish Independence, there's knife crime for starters, there's lack of affordable housing in London for another.

 

Brexit; decided - we're leaving the EU.

Scottish independence; decided - Scotland voted to stay in the UK.

 

You could waste everybody's time trying to fight facts but that's all you're doing, is wasting time.

No majority for what you want and no respect for those who won instead calling for the break up of the UK calling those who voted for Brexit naive.

 

The SNP believe in independence, so want to join the EU to be given less than 1% of the vote share to be dictated to from Brussels - nobody can accuse these people of being very smart.

The SNP wish to break from the UK to fight Tories who imposed austerity, and if they got their way, would impose an even bigger austerity just to balance the books; Why does Scotland spend 7 times more than the rest of the UK put together? What idiot decided public spending is the answer? Because the only answers there are that they cannot afford to cut off the hand that feeds.

It all comes down to power and money, to which they have none.

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Yet again, you pathetically refuse to engage or respond coherently.

I ask again, why are you posting in D&D if you neither want to debate nor discuss? 

 

24 minutes ago, ilovebender.com said:

don't be the idiot who thinks 43.6% matters

Erm, that's the share of the vote the incumbent Conservative government achieved their landslide with. Given they're now setting the agenda for "what" Brexit looks like, I think you and I would both agree that this share of the vote does matter.

 

24 minutes ago, ilovebender.com said:

49.9% isn't even a majority

Only one British government has ever won an outright majority of the vote during a general election, and that was in 1931.

 

24 minutes ago, ilovebender.com said:

to Hell with bringing about what 43.6% want

Maybe you should tell your chums at the Conservative Club that, see how well it goes down?

 

24 minutes ago, ilovebender.com said:

there's knife crime for starters

An issue manifestly caused by the repeated failures of successive Conservative governments, no less.

 

24 minutes ago, ilovebender.com said:

there's lack of affordable housing in London.

Ditto the above.

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But if London is so smart, why do they vote Labour?  And if the North is so dumb, why do they vote Tory?

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Read my post.

1 minute ago, Svip said:

But if London is so smart, why do they vote Labour?  And if the North is so dumb, why do they vote Tory?

Well, I still see a north south rich poor divide and like it or not, London is second to none in Europe.

 

Who knows why people vote Labour anywhere, and that's the truth.

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So you're not going to answer my questions?

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5 minutes ago, Svip said:

So you're not going to answer my questions?

I have, you think the North South divide is unfair?

You think London doesn't bring all the bread/isn't the bread winner here?

 

Just what exactly are you insinuating?

 

I've got news for you; London is economically better off and not by accident or trickery or deceit either.

We earn the most because we make the most.

We're talking about London; like New York City this side of the pond.

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I wasn't the one claiming that the North is dumb or that London is smart.  You did.  But I know how they voted in the last general election.  So are you insinuating that smart people vote Labour and dumb people vote Tory?

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3 minutes ago, Svip said:

I wasn't the one claiming that the North is dumb or that London is smart.  You did.  I also know how they voted in the last general election.  So are you insinuating that smart people vote Labour and dumb people vote Tory?

I also corrected that and took it out, read a final draft instead of trying to make a point about that you didn't even wait 1 minute to think about since it wasn't even there for a minute. Read, don't just reply as soon as you see a post.

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8 minutes ago, Svip said:

Perhaps first hit 'submit reply' when you have a final draft.

No, but again, you didn't even wait a minute to formulate your response; by which time what you was responding to wasn't even there.

 

It's called thinking first, try that next time before thoughtlessly hitting reply within 30 seconds.

 

But what are you trying to say? That it's just unfair that the north south divide exists?

If York for example wanted to be anything special, then why aren't they? No stock exchange no international hub no seat of power York is, I'd tell you that for free.

London's just better, that's why it makes all the money in the UK. That's why the south got rich and the north didn't.

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