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Raavi

European Politics Discussion

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DangerZ0neX

At least Netherlands is smart enough to not listen to a xenophobic lunatic, if only the US and UK did the same.

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Svip

Now that the French polling stations have opened, let's dwell into what we can expect today.

 

And the short answer is; we don't know!

 

It truly looks like a four way horse race, that's way too close to call. The four main contenders (from left to right), Mélenchon, Macron, Fillon and Le Pen, are all within the margin of error of each other.

 

Secondly, voters are more likely to make last minute switches between candidates, since there are so many real contenders. Someone who had been considering Macron, may shift to either Mélenchon or Fillon. But they are only likely to shift one step on the spectrum. Don't expect someone leaning towards Mélenchon, switching to Fillon at the last minute.

 

Thirdly, between 1/4 and 1/3 of voters are seemingly undecided. While having a preferred candidate, they still leave room for them changing their vote. Hence the voters I mentioned before are likely to be a huge group of voters.

 

Plus with all four candidates having a real fighting chance, their supporters are far more likely to come out to the polls, so expect a big turnout.

 

While the opinion polls for the first round is definitely a toss up, the polling for the second round are far far more certain.

 

In all three hypothetical match ups of Le Pen vs the other three, she is behind between 15 and 30 percentage points. Far worse than Trump or Brexit ever was.

 

Macron, on the other hand, has a comfortable lead of between 10 and 30 percentage points in all his three match ups.

 

Only Fillon and Mélenchon have opponents they'd prefer over others. Fillon loses to Mélenchon and Macron. Mélenchon loses to Macron.

 

(According to the polls.)

 

Of course, once round one is over, and polling on the second round can begin in earnest, it'll be interesting to see how they shift.

 

But the fact of the matter is this; the first round may decide before the second who is going to President. Or it may not. We'll know in about 12 hours.

Edited by Svip

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Darth Yokel

Let's hope the French don't f*ck this up like the Brits and Americans did. The last thing that the world needs right now is another right-wing lunatic in any position of power.

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sivispacem

Exit polling is out:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993

 

Looks like it's going to be Macron versus Le Pen, which most likely means Emmanuel Macron will be the next President of France.

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Cao Ang

I hope that France can vote in a centrist, they dont need a Trump. While I am not thrilled with what rampant immigration has done to French culture, nor do I want France to take the attitude Trump or Le Pen set out, I believe there is a middle ground and it can be followed.

Helping the home countries more would go far so refugees dont have to run. The free world has strong armies that should be able to work together to take places like Syria, one war area at a time. Working to maintain where we are presently, but working with the countries to amass strength to go to one place at a time where there is a forced exodus of refugees and get their countries back. Seems cost-effective in the long run.

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Darth Yokel

Exit polling is out:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993

 

Looks like it's going to be Macron versus Le Pen, which most likely means Emmanuel Macron will be the next President of France.

We can only hope.

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Svip

Considering that Macron is leading by 30 points, I think we don't even need to hope.

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TheHolyNZF

At least Netherlands is smart enough to not listen to a xenophobic lunatic, if only the US and UK did the same.

 

Nah. It's not about xenophobia. It's actually more about equality. You shouldn't get benefits from a system you don't contribute into, plus what is happening in sweden. Scary example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_Sweden

 

Or in Finland, almost 2 month long demonstration against forced returns. Organized by those asylum seekers who got negative result.

 

I just hope people would realize this. Sadly most people don't and some use it to feed their hate agenda while others think everyone opposing the idea of asylum seeking is racist.

 

 

 

Considering that Macron is leading by 30 points, I think we don't even need to hope.

 

But also consider, Trump had "1% chance" to become the president

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Svip

 

Considering that Macron is leading by 30 points, I think we don't even need to hope.

But also consider, Trump had "1% chance" to become the president

 

No, I won't consider, because those were false. Trump had a "33% chance" of becoming President. But also realise that chance percentage is very very different from opinion polling percentage.

 

Trump was 2 points - a regular polling error, i.e. within the margin of error - of winning two days before the election. And that's exactly what happened.

 

Trump was never 30 points behind Clinton, not even half that much.

 

Le Pen's chances are much much worse than Trump's.

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Chiarii

I'm hoping for a Le Pen victory. Any step towards the dissolution of the EU, however small, is a step in the right direction.

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Svip

To be frank. If France leaves the EU, that's pretty much the end of the EU. France is a far more important member of the EU than the UK. It's not without reason that the EU has basically been lead by France and Germany lately, even before the UK's departure was a thing.

 

But your hopes are likely to be dashed. Le Pen's polling average is 26 points behind Macron. And the opinion polls were pretty much spot on for the first round, which suggests they are likely to be as well for the second round. Indeed, it's to the polling companies' credit that they consistently had Macron and Le Pen as the two leading candidates, and the results reflect that.

 

Ironically, the punditry's inability to read and understand opinion poll probability, which lead them to underestimate the chances of Trump and Brexit (both of which were within an average polling error of 1-2 points), is now leading them to overestimate Le Pen's chances.

 

Plus, Trump's victory - and Brexit - isn't doing these candidates any favours. Indeed, Wilders and Hofer in Netherlands and Austria, respectively, underperformed in the end. The same curse is likely to haunt Le Pen.

 

Quite frankly, it wasn't interesting that Le Pen was the second top contender of the first round, but rather that no candidate from either the Socialist Party or the Republicans advanced to the second round. The two major parties that have been running France for the past five decades.

 

The left and far-left vote was split between Hamon and Mélenchon. And the centre-right vote, who were tired of Fillon's scandals, went to Macron. While Macron is more a centrist than Fillon is, he is still acceptable to a lot of Fillon supporters.

 

Moreover, Fillon and Hamon have already endorsed Macron, and urged their supporters to vote for him in the second round.

 

So yeah, I'm pretty confident in Macron's chances. But should the opinion polling shift fast in the next two weeks, I will change my confidence accordingly.

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sivispacem

Well here's a turn-up- Le Pen has quit as leader of the FN, instead focusing solely on her presidential campaign. What do we think of the implications of this? Is it likely to boost Le Pen's support due to the loss of the tainted, anti-Semitic history of the National Front?

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Uncle Sikee Atric

Well here's a turn-up- Le Pen has quit as leader of the FN, instead focusing solely on her presidential campaign. What do we think of the implications of this? Is it likely to boost Le Pen's support due to the loss of the tainted, anti-Semitic history of the National Front?

 

No, she's still a racist, no matter how you class her.

 

I doubt it'll make any real difference to the ratings.

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Svip

It's way too late for that, particularly with only two weeks left. I don't actually know what to make of it. It sounds like she honestly feels she could make it, or that she is declaring this to be her make or break attempt. That is, if she doesn't get elected, she won't run again in five years.

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SouthLand

So in Spain, the Left Wing political party Podemos planed to pass a vote of no confidence for the current President Mariano Rajoy. Too bad they didn't get the support of other opposition parties, because i believe that our current president is a complete imbecile and useless. I might be Right wing, but getting rid of a useless president goes beyond Political Ideologies.

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Uncle Sikee Atric

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39766334

 

Macron is being honest about the EU and states, "it needs urgent reform or it will face a possible exit by France as well."

 

I totally agree with his comments and I am certain Brexit will provide some sort of catalyst to make the other states reform the EU machine. Right now it is too bloated and moves too slow.

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Twilight Sky

Sure he isn't just talking like that just to get a huge edge over Le Pen?

I personally think the EU is too US-like though.

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sivispacem

The EU is exactly nothing like the US.

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SouthLand

The EU works like the USSR. Take a country like the Moldova SSR during soviet times. Sure they where a country, with their flag anthem and government. However, even if Ceausescu was the leader, and had some power, nothing major was done if it wasn't approved by Moscow. Just like nowadays with the EU but instead of Moscow, with Brussels.. Take my country for example, the ECB and even the IMF are happy with Spain because we are following "The European plan" they have traced for us. All the media are saying that our unemployment rate, our economy is way much better. The truth is, that the media and financial newspaper LIE, and people are leaving the country or moving to the big cities to find jobs (Just like in the 50's).

 

I believe that the EU should rename itself to "EO" or "European Organization" because we are not even close to being a real Union between member countries. We all know, that some countries are "more equal than others", and that's NOT fair especially if we consider ourselves a Union.

Edited by SouthLand

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Twilight Sky

The EU is exactly nothing like the US.

There are reasons which I believe that it is. Just to say this though - living in the US is no better. Don't let anyone else tell you otherwise, and don't believe US news, especially on economy.

 

Yes, under the EU, you're not exactly sovereign.

 

 

Edited by Twilight Sky

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sivispacem

There are reasons which I believe that it is.

Are you going to enlighten us then? After all this is D&D, you're supposed to be offering more than one line responses.

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Eutyphro

The EU is exactly nothing like the US.

This is a one line response actually.

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sivispacem

 

The EU is exactly nothing like the US.

This is a one line response actually.It's also a factual statement. It doesn't really need further expansion; it's an invitation for an explanation on how the EU and US are alike.

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SouthLand

We can all agree that there have been talks about transforming the EU to look more like the US.

 

Here is an example:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/european-parliament-nato-backs-plans-create-defence-union-a7432706.html

 

It looks like the EU want's to become a "One country with 27 states", and that means that many things are going to be centralized by Brussels just like the army i mentioned, or police force... And so on.

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Eutyphro

 

 

The EU is exactly nothing like the US.

This is a one line response actually.
It's also a factual statement. It doesn't really need further expansion; it's an invitation for an explanation on how the EU and US are alike.

 

It's clearly not a factual statement. A factual statement can't be that two vastly complex political enties that both have significant differences and similarities are nothing alike. Important similarities are that the EU and the US both have a constitution, a common currency in the entire territory, an open market, and a common external border policy. The differences are that the EU is a union of sovereign states and not a federal state like the US. Another significant difference is that the US has a shared language and cultural history, whereas the cultural differences and the language barriers within the EU are far greater. Therefore the US has a shared identity and the EU doesn't, which complicates the solidarity and the unity that is necessary for the EU and the euro to function. Another complicating factor for the EU is that the economic differences between sovereign states within the EU seem to be more significant than those between the constituent states of the US, which is also an issue for the euro.

Edited by Eutyphro

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sivispacem

It's clearly not a factual statement. A factual statement can't be that two vastly complex political enties that both have significant differences and similarities are nothing alike.

I suppose on your definition of "alike". Is a horse like a newt because they have four legs? Perhaps it should have been caveated with "as political institutions, the US and EU are nothing alike in terms of their structure, implementation or function".

 

Important similarities are that the EU and the US both have a constitution

Which aren't alike.

 

a common currency in the entire territory

Which, in the case of the EU, isn't true.

 

and a common external border policy.

Pretty debatable given the actions of various European governments in response to the Migrant Crisis. Also, the Uk is still technically in the EU and isn't party to the Schengen. Nor are Cyprus, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania and Ireland.

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Eutyphro

I forgot to mention some significant exceptions but the point is that the comparison is not as void as you pretend it is. It's a quite common comparison actually.

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sivispacem

The fact it's common doesn't make it valid. You of all people should understand that public consensus is no indicator of the validity of something. If only our good friend here would expand on his opinions, perhaps we could discuss what precious few minor similarities there are in comparison to the yawning chasm of differences.

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