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Raavi

General US Politics Discussion

Recommended Posts

Typhus

But seriously, I think he wants a war with North Korea.

I get that impression, too. This summit was to be the highlight of his Presidency. People were saying that he had accomplished something no other American leader had since the Korean war. It was claimed that his behaviour was all some kind of calculated gambit designed to cow the North Koreans into submission. But by cancelling the summit, I fear that scenario no longer seems very possible.

A war would play better to his base, who can more easily understand militarism than an intricate and delicate peace process. It will play better with the media, who can go into overdrive on the patriotism and news cycle. It would guarantee him a second term, which peace with North Korea wouldn't have.

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Tchuck

The summit is off, then the summit is on, then the summit is off, then the summit is back on.

Jesus Christ this is so childish.

Makes Kim look like the more competent and diplomatic leader, while Trump tries hard to be a "loose cannon" to appear unpredictable and dangerous, but just comes off as a flaky buffoon.

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Darth Yokel

He's now losing his mind because Sessions is an obstruction of justice witness in Mueller's probe.

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Svip

As much as Trump regrets picking Jeff Sessions as his AG, I don't think Sessions has actually betrayed Trump yet (unless you view his recusal as betrayal).  Much less is there any indication that Sessions is a witness in the Mueller probe.

Trump probably issued the letter on the behest of Vice President Mike Pence, after the North Koreans called him a dummy for supporting John Bolton's views of quick denuclearisation with references to Libya in 2004.  Pence, far more than Bolton, doesn't take insults kindly, and probably insisted to Trump that he ought to cancel the meeting.  This explains why it was a letter and not a tweet.

Of course, Trump, being Trump, didn't actually want to end the negotiations, so within 24 hours, he was talking as if it was back on.  Plus this gave South Korea's President a decent invite to enter himself significantly in the negotiations, to the point where he may attend the summit in Singapore in addition to Kim and Trump.

I find it particular that after the letter, we have not heard publicly from Bolton nor Pence on the matter, and no mention of a Libya strategy.  This gives me the impression that Trump wants this summit, and he wants it to be a success.  He sees how people are talking about his North Korean approach, which is the only area so far, that he is getting bipartisan support on, and he is desperate for some bipartisan recognition (despite his statements to the contrary).

He probably figured that Bolton and Pence were hurting his chances for a successful summit with North Korea, and have effectively asked them to shut up before the summit.

That's my take on the matter, I doubt it has anything to do with Sessions.

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Darth Yokel
Posted (edited)

Sessions had recused himself from the Russia probe and when Trump asked him later on to interfere he refused that as well. He also threatened to resign if Trump fired Rosenstein. And we know that he already had his interview with Mueller. Sessions is a cagey guy with a lot of experience. He sees the writing on the wall. Also, we know that he lied about his contacts with Russians during the campaign. That's something that might fly with the Congress, but not so much with the FBI.

NK situation doesn't have anything to do with Sessions, of course. My post was unrelated to Tchuck 's post.

Edited by Darth Yokel
Clarification

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Tchuck

I think Svip is on the money. Trump really fancies himself winning a Nobel Peace Prize, and even he can see how dumb the declarations by Bolton and Pence are, specially when talking about a potential peace deal with North Korea. Libyan Model? Seriously? Though since we have members on this very forum that think the North Korean people don't deserve a right to self identification as a country, it's not too far off to see how Americans would think it's a good idea.

Makes sense too since, as you said, the cancellation didn't come from a tweet, which is the president's main way of communicating his whims to the world.

 

Also, I just remembered that Trump has been talking about... banning German luxury cars?

How would that even work? How could that possibly be beneficial?

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Svip

I think Donald Trump has become quite a bit more nationalistic in his latter years, to the point where he is irrationally pained by the fact that US consumers purchase foreign cars, foreign appliances and other foreign made goods.  Ignoring that the main reason is that these products are of a better quality, and able to sell it at a lower price than their US counterparts.  It's quite ironic that he compares Mercedes-Benz to Chevrolet.  Strange that he had to pick one of the worst - if not the worst - US car brand.

But it comes among the actual news of the tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico and the EU have gone into effect, and the global trade war is commencing.  Of course, they will respond in kind, but focus on hitting consumers in US swing states and Trump's core electorate.  That's what they did in 2002 during Bush's steel tariffs, and Bush backed off.

Trump, however, I doubt will back off.  Instead, he is likely to double down.  He has repeatedly said that his next move would be to impose high import tariffs on European cars (see the article you yourself mentioned), which would definitely hurt the German car industry in particular, but it would hurt US consumers more.  Because while yes, some German cars will be more expensive (Note:  A majority of "German" cars sold in the US are actually made in the US.), other car brands are likely to increase their prices a little bit (if nothing else, due to the steel/aluminium tariffs).

Slowly, it will become more expensive to be a US consumer.

But businesses will be hit hard faster.  When the EU and Canada retaliates, US businesses are going to be their targets.  And while any agreements already signed will be insured against tariffs, exporters in the US will have to adjust their expectations, and lower them.  Possibly lowering salaries and even laying people off, long before consumers are really feeling the effects.

Indeed, the uncertainty of the future will not look good on the global markets, and send the economy stalling, if not into a recession.  And that can possibly happen faster than you'd think.  It's very likely to offset any benefits of the Republican tax cuts passed in December, and maybe make it worse.  Thus undercutting the GOP's core message leading into the Midterms.

I'd argue that the downfall of Donald Trump won't be the Mueller probe, but rather his handling of the economy.  When his core electorate are feeling worse off in their day-to-day situation, that's when they are likely to turn on him.  Farmers, in particular, are known for their lack of party affiliation, and will turn on you, if you are a threat to their livelihood (see Carter).

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Darth Yokel

It's interesting how Trump's legal defense narrative went from "fake news" and "no collusion" to "POTUS can pardon himself" and "Trump could have shot Comey and still not get indicted". And when I say interesting, I mean retarded.

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Doctor Holliday

Guys look at how excited John Bolton is :lol:

3YEermp.jpg

What a time to be alive!

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Typhus

Trump has arrived in Singapore ahead of the summit with North Korea on Tuesday. There are a great many possibilities here, and a lot of them hinge on the personalities of the men involved. But key to the success or failure is Trump, and whether he is as blunt, aggressive and tactless as he allows himself to appear. If this public perception of him is accurate, it could well be that all Kim Jong Un need do is flatter him and gain whatever concessions he desires.

 

Now, I don't know if that will happen, or if Trump is secretly a master chess player who is far more canny than we imagine. But, to be frank, this is a win-win for the President. If he comes away successful, he can claim to have ended the Korean war and use that in his 2020 campaign. If not, he has people around him willing to use the military option, which is an even greater guarantee of an election win.

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Svip

If Trump is a master chess player, he has not shown it yet.  In his life time, he basically made four good deals.  Two of those were more out of necessity, but after he had Trump Tower built in the early 1980s, Trump has distanced himself from the details of negotiations.  Which also shows in how he deals with just about anything as President.

 

While Trump's unpredictable works in a dangerous auction-style game, it won't work in a bargaining-style game.  If you want to put a game theorist hat on.  Why should North Korea trust any concession the US says he intends to make, without some actual immediate hand overs?  Just look at the fact Trump dropped the Iran deal, that makes the US quite untrustworthy.  Indeed, a real worry is that Trump is so desperate for a deal, that he might sell out US interests.

 

And Typhus, you are dead wrong about military action; that will not help him in 2020, it will likely force his ousting.  Americans are sick and tired of wars, with the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan not perceived as over yet.  Another war will only infuriate them, not just those who already dislike Trump, but also the core of his base; they get quite upset whenever he performs military interventions in Syria.

 

And that's before we talk about how devastating military action in North Korea will be.  Not just to South Korea and possibly Japan, but also to the United States itself.  Unlike the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, such a war would actually be one that could be felt at home.

 

And lastly, I can hardly see him coming away this as successful as claiming 'ending the Korean war', he may get some concessions, but I really doubt it, given his style of negotiations.  He can't even get allies to concede, how will he get North Korea to do the same?

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sivispacem
5 hours ago, Doctor Holliday said:

Guys look at how excited John Bolton is :lol:

3YEermp.jpg

What a time to be alive!

Such a splendid picture. It looks exactly like Trump is a toddler refusing to eat his vegetables, whilst Angela Merkel tries to reason with him and everyone else looks on in baffled frustration.

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Darth Yokel
Posted (edited)

Just look at the motley crew that he's assembled for the talks with NK. It would be a joke if it wasn't such a serious affair.

 

As for G-7

 

djL1Yvn.jpg

Edited by Darth Yokel

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Typhus
1 hour ago, Svip said:

If Trump is a master chess player, he has not shown it yet.  In his life time, he basically made four good deals.  Two of those were more out of necessity, but after he had Trump Tower built in the early 1980s, Trump has distanced himself from the details of negotiations.  Which also shows in how he deals with just about anything as President.

 

While Trump's unpredictable works in a dangerous auction-style game, it won't work in a bargaining-style game.  If you want to put a game theorist hat on.  Why should North Korea trust any concession the US says he intends to make, without some actual immediate hand overs?  Just look at the fact Trump dropped the Iran deal, that makes the US quite untrustworthy.  Indeed, a real worry is that Trump is so desperate for a deal, that he might sell out US interests.

 

And Typhus, you are dead wrong about military action; that will not help him in 2020, it will likely force his ousting.  Americans are sick and tired of wars, with the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan not perceived as over yet.  Another war will only infuriate them, not just those who already dislike Trump, but also the core of his base; they get quite upset whenever he performs military interventions in Syria.

 

And that's before we talk about how devastating military action in North Korea will be.  Not just to South Korea and possibly Japan, but also to the United States itself.  Unlike the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, such a war would actually be one that could be felt at home.

 

And lastly, I can hardly see him coming away this as successful as claiming 'ending the Korean war', he may get some concessions, but I really doubt it, given his style of negotiations.  He can't even get allies to concede, how will he get North Korea to do the same?

The untrustworthiness issue is very real, but not merely confined to Trump. It cannot have escaped Kim Jong Un's attention that America, and the West in general, have a habit of propping up various monsters and then stabbing them in the back at the first convenience. Saddam Hussein once shook hands with Donald Rumsfeld, Gaddafi did the same with Tony Blair, and all it took was a slight shift in the wind for those men to be killed and their nations utterly ruined. Whatever Trump does, his successor can undo soon enough.

 

In regards to military action, I stand by my point. Primarily because the American media has never been at ease criticizing Trump and at every turn has used his few military actions to portray him as Presidential or finally "coming into his own". Regardless of how many Koreans, Japanese or Americans would die, the media would almost unanimously support him. America's culture of military veneration would do the rest. It is then a simple matter for Trump to portray his opponents as cowards or unpatriotic, and the majority of voters will buy it.

 

But that's an outside possibility. Far more likely is a positive resolution, or one vague enough he can spin as a great diplomatic victory. You have to remember that Trump has shifted American political discourse to a truly remarkable degree. Him merely saying "I ended the Korean war" will be enough for it to be believed, even if all evidence to the contrary is presented. He will say it, be believed and anyone who disagrees will be accused of fakery. It's the same tactic he's used since the campaign trail and it hasn't failed him yet.

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RollsReus1959
7 hours ago, Doctor Holliday said:

Guys look at how excited John Bolton is :lol:

3YEermp.jpg

What a time to be alive!

Nice pic.  

 

Looks like a bald bald eagle taking a piss into  the lake and a bunch of feckless seagulls trying to get its attention.  

 

Of of all the ‘leaders’ Trump has the highest approval rating.  

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Svip
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Typhus said:

The untrustworthiness issue is very real, but not merely confined to Trump. It cannot have escaped Kim Jong Un's attention that America, and the West in general, have a habit of propping up various monsters and then stabbing them in the back at the first convenience. Saddam Hussein once shook hands with Donald Rumsfeld, Gaddafi did the same with Tony Blair, and all it took was a slight shift in the wind for those men to be killed and their nations utterly ruined. Whatever Trump does, his successor can undo soon enough.

 

In regards to military action, I stand by my point. Primarily because the American media has never been at ease criticizing Trump and at every turn has used his few military actions to portray him as Presidential or finally "coming into his own". Regardless of how many Koreans, Japanese or Americans would die, the media would almost unanimously support him. America's culture of military veneration would do the rest. It is then a simple matter for Trump to portray his opponents as cowards or unpatriotic, and the majority of voters will buy it.

You seem to forget the American media's handling of the Iraq war.  It's lack of criticism is often mentioned in media circles today as one of the US media's greatest failures in modern times.  They will not be likely to repeat that mistake.  Moreover, the people will be even less likely to buy the argument for a North Korean war.  They want peace in Korea, yes, but they sure as hell don't want war, just because Trump couldn't do a deal in Singapore.

 

Bolton may be able to present a legal argument for a war, but that's hardly going to sway the American public.

 

Quote

But that's an outside possibility. Far more likely is a positive resolution, or one vague enough he can spin as a great diplomatic victory. You have to remember that Trump has shifted American political discourse to a truly remarkable degree. Him merely saying "I ended the Korean war" will be enough for it to be believed, even if all evidence to the contrary is presented. He will say it, be believed and anyone who disagrees will be accused of fakery. It's the same tactic he's used since the campaign trail and it hasn't failed him yet.

I realise Trump is likely to talk a lot of bullsh*t, but even he needs to show something for it.  And with North Korea still existing, and still having nukes, what did he win?  It's just going to fizz out.

 

And then Americans will go back to a more important topic; his mishandling of the economy, which seems now to be doing great despite of his actions.  But that may not last forever.

 

A whole lot can change between now and 2020, your predictions just make you sound naïve.

 

35 minutes ago, RollsReus1959 said:

Of of all the ‘leaders’ Trump has the highest approval rating.  

Are you sure about that?

 

Trump currently has an average approval of ~42%.  Trudeau has ~35%.  Merkel has ~54%.  Macron - as far as I can gather - around 40%, but some articles mentions it has risen in recent weeks, so it will likely be higher.  May has an average of ~36%.  I can't seem to find a source on Conte's approval ratings, but he is also quite new, so there may not be any.  Abe's approval ratings are around ~28%.  It's not easy to find approval ratings on Juncker or Tusk, since they don't often do approval ratings on these guys, as neither are directly elected by the people.  Although, the EU itself is generally on the rise in terms of approval in Europe.

 

So I'd argue that Trump enjoys average ratings of these leaders?  I'd imagine Conte been quite popular once the first approval ratings come in, and it makes sense for Merkel and Macron to be rising in the polls right now.  The dust is settling in Germany over the government negotiations, and people are losing interest in the 'plight' of the French train operators who have been striking, as much Frenchmen begin to welcome Macron's reforms.

 

Of course, most of these numbers were taking before the announced US tariffs and the G7 summit, so the numbers are likely to be different in a few weeks' time.  Trudeau, Merkel and Macron will definitely benefit from their stand-off with Trump.  I doubt May will gain much out of it, considering the Brexit debacle that keeps creeping up for her.  Abe's ratings are likely to keep falling, as the Japanese people disapprove of his befriending Trump, which apparently have let to nothing.  Conte?  Who knows!

Edited by Svip

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Doctor Holliday
Posted (edited)

"Give me facts and I still won't believe them."

 

 

There's a lot of Democrat circle jerking about how Trump is going to be removed from office but I don't see it happening. I'm rapidly losing faith in the various American institutions which used to guard against such blatant cronyism. The country is experiencing a true crisis in which a lack of trust, lack of rational analysis, and lack of basic shame have combined to create a perfect storm of corrupt ineptitude on the part of the 2nd and 3rd branches of government. Checks and balances are failing before our eyes.

Edited by Doctor Holliday

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Doctor Holliday
Posted (edited)

Since no one hit it yet, I'm just going to continue and expand on my previous post. Senator Corker is now calling his own party a "cult" for their unwillingness to take Trump's indiscretions seriously. He's openly wondering the same questions I have been posing: When the only people responsible for imposing checks and balances no longer care, what exactly is going to happen to our government?

 

 

Trump might as well call off the 2020 election and declare himself POTUS for life right now because I don't see any legal force or jurisdiction willing to stop him...

Edited by Doctor Holliday

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Typhus

A very sad article about the migrant children Mr. Trump has locked up. And quite unnerving, too, to see glowering murals of Trump staring out at the kids he's mistreating:

https://www.businessinsider.sg/migrant-kids-detention-center-pictures-details-us-mexico-border-casa-padre-2018-6/

Is this a big deal in America at the moment? It feels like the media should be dragging him through the mud for doing something like this.

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Darth Yokel

That is some next level Nazi sh*t.

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Short Stay
4 hours ago, Typhus said:

A very sad article about the migrant children Mr. Trump has locked up. And quite unnerving, too, to see glowering murals of Trump staring out at the kids he's mistreating:

https://www.businessinsider.sg/migrant-kids-detention-center-pictures-details-us-mexico-border-casa-padre-2018-6/

Is this a big deal in America at the moment? It feels like the media should be dragging him through the mud for doing something like this.

The media are dragging him through the mud for this, at least they are in the UK.  It would be better if there were another way to discourage parents in Latin and South America from sending their kids north in order to relieve their own poverty and gamble on a better future for them by crossing illegally into the US. Same goes for those parents bringing their kids along with them.

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make total destroy

ya maybe the u.s. can build a time machine go back in time and unf*ck mexico and south america some day

 

in the meantime let's just put thousands of children in prison camps after tearing them from their families their parents should have never tried to provide a better life for their children in the first place the selfish bastards

 

 

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Hmmm nice bike
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Typhus said:

A very sad article about the migrant children Mr. Trump has locked up. And quite unnerving, too, to see glowering murals of Trump staring out at the kids he's mistreating:

https://www.businessinsider.sg/migrant-kids-detention-center-pictures-details-us-mexico-border-casa-padre-2018-6/

Is this a big deal in America at the moment? It feels like the media should be dragging him through the mud for doing something like this.

There's also an Obama mural there with a quote from him about us being a nation of immigrants, which is sadly ironic given the situation. And of course, Trump would rather blame Obama for this all anyway even if it was Trump's own administration at fault here.

 

EDIT: I just wanted to add that perhaps this is the administrations way of scaring people into not coming here illegally and trying to drive the numbers down further. The border wall, even though it was kind of a longshot back when Trump was running for office, is really a longshot at this point. I even heard a conservative talk host who used to love Trump complaining about how it hasn't really started construction yet despite Trump's tweets and how all we're seeing over a year in are prototypes. It feels like the wall hasn't even been mentioned in a long time by the administration besides the occasional ad-lib by Trump.

 

This whole children being separated thing could just be their easier and cheaper way of deterring people from coming here, rather than building a gigantic wall that would obviously come out of our tax dollars and would be hard to explain to the masses why they couldn't get Mexico to pay for it. Basically, the way they see it, who would want to come here if they know their kids would be separated from them and quite possibly lost in the system while they go to jail or get sent back?

Edited by Hmmm nice bike

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Darth Yokel
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Typhus said:

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Poor old Paul Manafort is going to the big house:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/15/politics/judge-sends-paul-manafort-to-jail-pending-trial/index.html

I wonder if he'll start squealing to get himself out of this mess.

I don't think that Manafort is as stupid as most people around Trump. Which leads me to think that maybe the FBI never offered him any kind of deal. And that would be devastating for Trump. Or maybe Manafort isn't as afraid of prison as he is of what would happen to him if he were to talk.

Edited by Darth Yokel

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Short Stay

I don't see why everyone can't move to the temperate zone, it's not like there isn't plenty of room.  Living in the tropics is sh*t anyway.  It's far too hot. You can't go jogging else you get all sweaty. The biting insects, the ants that practically devour your food faster than you can eat it. The roads are always getting washed away by violent rainstorms or crumble in the heat. The vegetation that encroaches on everything, the mold, the fungi. Christ, the list goes on. Of course it's not all like that, there's always the arid desert. Or the sub-tropics.

 

If everyone moved north we could then let the flora and fauna of the sweatier zones recover and then go on holiday a couple of times a year there.  The women could lie around in the sun and the men could hunt big game animals, before every met up for drinkies at night. I'm sure Donald would approve - hell he can even build the resorts.

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Doctor Holliday

The United States arguably creates more terrorism through our indiscriminate drone strikes in the Middle East, through collateral damage to innocents and family members of the target. Can the argument be made now that we're fueling another huge generation of people who will grow up to hate and despise and perhaps want to seek some kind of vengeance against US foreign policy? I don't know what kind of legacy this immigration policy is going to leave but I don't see how any good could possibly come of it at this rate.

 

920x1240.jpg

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/What-separation-from-parents-does-to-children-13005205.php

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Tchuck

Where are all those gun rights activists that say they need guns to protect themselves from a tyrannical and oppressive government? This is what a tyrannical and oppressive government looks like. This is your time to shine.

 

Oh and America is withdrawing from the human rights commission. 

 

Man, just imagine if another country was stopping American families at the border, separating them without any contact or documentation, and keeping them isolated in concentration camps. Just imagine what the outcry would be from America. Do as I say and not as I do, eh!

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