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Raavi

General US Politics Discussion

Recommended Posts

TheSpectre

Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii has announced she plans to seek the Democratic nomination for President of the United States in 2020.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/11/politics/tulsi-gabbard-van-jones/index.html

 

Richard Ojeda of West Virginia is also seeking the Democratic nomination in 2020, and announced his candidacy back in November.

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Svip

OK.  And so did Elizabeth Warren recently, and so did Kirsten Gillibrand the other day.  Do you have any comments on any of these announcements or candidates, since you bring them up?

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TheSpectre

I generally like Tulsi Gabbard. Not fond of her history on same-sex marriage, but she supports it now. I'm glad to see a veteran like her throw her hat into the ring. I think she may be a bit too young to garner the support she needs.

 

Ojeda has a history of voting for Republicans over Democrats in the presidential elections, having voted for Trump in 2016 over Hillary Clinton and I think that will ultimately come back to haunt him.

 

Both of them supported Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primaries which is also a plus in my book, as he was my candidate of choice during that election cycle.

 

Ultimately, I think Joe Biden is going to enter the race and be the favorite of the Democratic base. Sanders hasn't ruled out another run, but I fear he may be too old at this point.

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Svip

Gabbard's previous position on homosexuals (not just same-sex marriage) will definitely come back to haunt her.  But so will her weird defence of Syrian President Assad.  She was already too unknown to begin with, and these two issues will particularly put an end to her chances before she even gets off the ground.

 

I mean, starting your Presidential campaign by apologising for your past anti-LGBT views?  That means doom out the door.

 

Indeed, I'd say Ojeda has a far better chance than Gabbard (not a good chance, mind you), since his reasoning for voting Trump is something that resonates with a lot of Democrats (and a lot of Democrats did vote for Trump).  His repenting of this sin may help gather other parts of the Democratic coalition.  That being said, given the numerous amount of people already and seeming to enter the fray, it's not clear how Ojeda will be able to appear a viable alternative to most of them.

 

As for Joe Biden, I think the times has run past him.  While definitely more likeable than Hillary Clinton, he is basically her but with a different face.  They are in sync with their policy positions, both foreign and domestic, and they have experience to toot as a reason for voting for them.  However, while Biden is definitely more likeable - which is why I used to be bullish on his chances - he does carry baggage, that will probably come back to haunt him as well, such as his handling of the Anita Hill hearing, which will make women, black and young voters weary of him.

 

Elizabeth Warren is going to be vying for the same voters as Bernie Sanders, and if they are both in the race, they are likely to split and doom their own chances.  Indeed, Warren's chances counts on Sanders not entering the race.  Besides the more left leaning members of the Democratic party, everyone else who voted for Sanders have moved on, and they'd rather have a new face.  Warren is a newer face.  But it may not be new enough for a lot of these.

 

Having read Nate Silver's analysis of the Democratic primary candidates (including his analysis of some more long-shot candidates), I have grown more bullish on Beto O'Rourke's, Kamala Harris' and Stacey Abrams' chances.  Although, while O'Rouke's and Harris' candidacies are basically a given at this point, Abrams' isn't.  Although, she is likely to be influential, even if she doesn't run.

 

All in all, I don't think Biden's nomination is a given.  This isn't like 2016.  If anything, it's like the Republicans' 2016 primary.

Edited by Svip

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DareYokel
7 hours ago, TheFoxRiverFugitive said:

Ultimately, I think Joe Biden is going to enter the race and be the favorite of the Democratic base. Sanders hasn't ruled out another run, but I fear he may be too old at this point.

Joe Biden is a year older.

 

But I generally agree that at their age they're too old. To fix the mess that Trump is about to leave behind the Democrats need a two term president. It's not very likely that Biden or Sanders could be that president.

 

I think Beto O'Rourke might stand a chance. He's young and charismatic. Not a lot of skeletons in his closet. And he's a white male and we shouldn't pretend like that doesn't matter to a lot of people, especially in today's political climate. Even to the ones who claim to care only about qualifications.

Edited by DareYokel

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Eutyphro
51 minutes ago, DareYokel said:

And he's a white male

Might work against him, considering it will make him ineffective at motivating minority voters, just like Hillary failed to. Beto O'Rourke is definitely a likely future president in my view, but I think it is better for him if he waits until he is a bit more experienced politically. He could loose against Trump, and it would be devastating for his career.

The sad thing is that he is the only good candidate the democrats have. Most potential candidates are terrible and likely to lose to Trump in my view. And letting creepy Joe run is a terrible idea. 

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DareYokel
43 minutes ago, Eutyphro said:

Might work against him, considering it will make him ineffective at motivating minority voters, just like Hillary failed to.

Could be, but not necessarily. Remember that African Americans loved Bill Clinton. If Beto can surround himself with popular minority figures it might be enough.

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Svip

I don't think Trump's chances are that solid.  Even against a weak Democratic candidate.  Most of the field would be a favourite against Trump; Biden, Warren, O'Rourke, Harris, Abrams, Castro, etc.  Trump's chances - as they look at this stage - are weak against a generic Democrat, which would also be a weak Democrat.

 

That's not to say that cannot change in 16 months.  Plenty can happen.  But from this vantage point, most candidates that Democrats can nominate have a good chance of winning in 2020.  Which is why so many are going to throw themselves in the field.

 

Remember how few big GOP names threw their hat in the ring in 2012?  That's because they calculated that beating President Obama would be hard.  So a lot of the big names waited till 2016, hence the crowded field.  This time, most candidates are calculating that their best chance to become President is beating Trump.

 

But sure, if Trump should teach us anything, predicting anything this far in the future is a fool's errant.  So they might as well throw their hats in the ring, in hopes that Trump's situation only gets worse, or at least stay where it is.

Edited by Svip

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DareYokel
3 minutes ago, Svip said:

I don't think Trump's chances are that solid.  Even against a weak Democratic candidate.  Most of the field would be a favourite against Trump; Biden, Warren, O'Rourke, Harris, Abrams, Castro, etc.  Trump's chances - as they look at this stage - are weak against a generic Democrat, which would also be a weak Democrat.

You're likely right. And I think that Trump, or someone in his inner circle is well aware of this, which is why they insist on wall funding now and why they're willing to keep the government shut down indefinitely. They desperately need that win for the 2020 campaign.

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Svip
32 minutes ago, DareYokel said:

You're likely right. And I think that Trump, or someone in his inner circle is well aware of this, which is why they insist on wall funding now and why they're willing to keep the government shut down indefinitely. They desperately need that win for the 2020 campaign.

I fear this whole shutdown stand-off is not what his 2020 campaign wanted.  President Trump has painted himself into a corner, because the shutdown is not resonating with the American people as it drags on, and even his 2020 campaign recognises this.

 

They are not going to forgive him so easily, I'd imagine, particularly if it drags on for a lot longer.  And if it ends in a compromise, then his base is likely going to be disappointed as well.

 

Plus if Republicans eventually becomes fed up with Trump's handling of the shutdown, they can overrule an eventual veto.  And if that happens, that would be particularly embarrassing for President Trump.

 

Trump doesn't have a plan, but thought brinkmanship would bring him what he wanted.  And it doesn't appear to be working.

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Clem Fandango

Joe Biden is basically the American Prince Phillip. Probably the least likeable out of all the potential candidates, the only reason he's being seriously considered IMO is because he's the only one the average person has definitely heard of. 

 

Beto O'Rourke has no politics. Obama may have won with vague allusions to popular policies he had no intention of implementing, but Clinton ran on much the same platform and lost, particularly because she failed to mobilise working class voters. O'Rourke would be the same thing. Entirely uninspiring. Unfortunately being an implacable technocrat seems to be what Primary voters want, but he'd have no hope in the General.  

 

Elizabeth Warren may seem like a progressive candidate from a distance but is actually a managerial technocrat. Her rhetorical focus is on financial regulations which may be important in practical terms but is divorced from the lived experience of average people.

 

Sanders is the only choice. He is the only one who speaks directly to people and makes their experiences central to his rhetoric. He is the most popular politician in America and Trump is afraid to debate him. He can peel off Republican voters: if you pay attention to Conservatives online Sanders is never mentioned as part of the Democrat/Hollywood paedo conspiracies. A Sanders/Warren ticket is so obviously the way to go that I have to conclude that anyone who disagrees is either a rube or arguing in bad faith. 

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TheSpectre

I really like Sanders, but if he's seriously going to consider another run, he needs a really solid VP. In 2021, on inauguration day, he'll be 79 going on 80. There's a decent chance he wouldn't last eight years, maybe not even four. If he wants to get people energized about his bid he needs to convince people that he's going to have a solid running mate that would carry on his legacy in the event of his death. I know that's really grim, but it's important.

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Clem Fandango

For the record, Sanders has started hiring staff. He's running. 

 

Image result for bernie sanders trump wrestling

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Svip

With Elizabeth Warren in the primaries, Sanders is not going to win the nomination.  He would probably win the general election, if nominated, but he is not going to be nominated.  His coalition since 2016 has only dwindled.  And when his candidacy cannot be portrayed simply as the outsider against the establishment, since the field is likely to be so crowded, a sizeable amount of people who voted for him in 2016 will vote for someone else in 2020.

 

Sanders would be better off spending his energy and resources on forming a new coalition behind a new - and younger - candidate.  But since he hasn't being doing anything of the sort - at least not as far as we know, it seems unlikely that's the reason he is taking on more staff.  He is going to run, and he is going to lose.

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Eutyphro
3 hours ago, Svip said:

I don't think Trump's chances are that solid.  Even against a weak Democratic candidate.  Most of the field would be a favourite against Trump; Biden, Warren, O'Rourke, Harris, Abrams, Castro, etc.  Trump's chances - as they look at this stage - are weak against a generic Democrat, which would also be a weak Democrat.

I think you are underestimating Trump. Trump has a significant base that strongly supports him, and he has made a serious effort to deliver on campaign promises, whether you like those promises or not. I agree with you that a solid candidate would easily beat him, but none of those candidates are that great. Biden would be a good candidate were he not very old and extremely creepy against women and children. Trump is creepy as well, but the amount of groping and saying weird sh*t to kids of Biden is on another level. A non creepy younger Biden would beat Trump easily.

All the candidates you mentioned can in my opinion lose to Trump, and I consider Trump favorite against many of them. It will be especially difficult for female candidates to run against Trump considering that Trump is a rather archetypal toxic jerk and a very capable insult comedian. In general, I don't see why anyone who voted for him in 2016 won't vote for him in 2020, and I don't see any of the Democrats easily performing better than Hillary did.

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Svip
6 hours ago, Eutyphro said:

I think you are underestimating Trump. Trump has a significant base that strongly supports him, and he has made a serious effort to deliver on campaign promises, whether you like those promises or not.

The 2018 midterms sort of proves that Trump's base just isn't enough to carry him over the edge.  Trump won in 2016, because a lot of independent voters voted for Trump.  Of people who disliked both Clinton and Trump, Trump won that group by 17 percentage points.

 

None of the candidates in the potential Democratic pool are as disliked as Hillary Clinton.  Indeed, Trump has made the miscalculation that it was his strong base that elected him in 2016, when it was mostly disgruntled independents and Democrats that voted against Clinton, more than they voted for Trump.  These people are unlikely to vote for Trump again.

Edited by Svip

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trip

I will forever hold onto hope.

 

Fingers crossed the BuzzFeed report turns out super true.

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Svip

Would have (or be) big if true, but until someone else collaborates BuzzFeed's report, I am still merely considering it a rumour.  The Special Counsel made a rare public statement, although it isn't clear exactly what in the report they are disputing.  But I am certainly thinking less of this report in this light, until another outlet can confirm the report.  And in particular, figure out which parts the Special Counsel itself disputed.

 

That's not to say it's not true.  But I haven't been convinced it is yet.

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Eutyphro

Has Buzzfeed released the tapes of hookers pissing on Trump in Russia yet?

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DareYokel
20 hours ago, Svip said:

Would have (or be) big if true, but until someone else collaborates BuzzFeed's report, I am still merely considering it a rumour.  The Special Counsel made a rare public statement, although it isn't clear exactly what in the report they are disputing.  But I am certainly thinking less of this report in this light, until another outlet can confirm the report.  And in particular, figure out which parts the Special Counsel itself disputed.

 

That's not to say it's not true.  But I haven't been convinced it is yet.

It was weird though. They really picked their words carefully.

 

I don't know why the Buzzfeed report surprised anyone. I always just assumed that Cohen lied on Trump's behalf. We all know that he lied. And Trump is his client. Cohen is a mob lawyer. It makes sense for him to act on behalf of his criminal client. And he's not very smart. We're talking about the the kind of guy who brags about being a part of the Russian mafia.

 

EDIT: With lawyers like this who needs Buzzfeed and Cohen?

Edited by DareYokel

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DareYokel

EDIT: This comment is meaningless now that Spaghetti Cat's comment has been deleted.

Edited by DareYokel

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Typhus

There is currently something potentially worrying going on in Venezuela. Trump has offered his open support to Juan Guaidó, who recently declared himself the legitimate ruler of the country. In response, the Maduro regime has severed diplomatic ties with the US and given their diplomats 72 hours to leave the nation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/venezuela-president-maduro-breaks-relations-with-us-gives-american-diplomats-72-hours-to-leave-country.html

It is unclear how far this will escalate. The White House has offered President Maduro safe conduct out of Venezuela should he decide to flee, but I suppose it all depends on who the military sides with? Previously, there had been talk of Trump wanting to invade but having been talked out of it. And whilst I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on an American military intervention, this is still a dangerous step which could inflame Venezuela's already tense political climate.

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Svip

Invading Venezuela might be a way for Trump to solve his domestic woes.  Or make them worse.

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Tchuck

Venezuela would be a disaster far worse than Vietnam was.

 

-It's more industrialized than Vietnam was, with more large cities to serve as collateral

-Has a much, much worse landscape than Vietnam had. Vietnam is relatively flat; Venezuela is the opposite of that. Lot's of very difficult and rugged terrain that are very unfriendly towards a force like the American one. All their veterans are used to fighting in the bloody desert. And they won't have the aid of Napalm this time around

-The Venezuelan army is pretty decent, and they back Maduro 100%. Very unlikely they'd bail, and are fighting at home, meaning they know all the ins and outs and will put up a massive fight

-Whether people like it or not, a large percentage of the population still supports Maduro, and would probably pick up arms or fight for Venezuela in any capability they can. Worst case scenario, full blown civil war erupts in the middle of the conflict, with Venezuelans fighting each other increasing the bodycount

 

So... Yeah. It would be a massive disaster for the US, and could impose them another humiliating defeat. Trump might be counting on the support of his new lapdog, Brazil's president Bolsonaro. But the Brazilian army REALLY doesn't want a war in Venezuela, as it means they'd be getting swamped with refugees and whatnot. And Venezuela could very, very, very easily invade and infiltrate Brazil. We have a large border with them, and very little surveillance.

 

So yeah, unless Trump is retarded, or his military personnel is composed of super-confident stupid strategists, there's no way he'll invade Venezuela. The chances of it turning out in his favor are very, very, very slim.

 

Ironically, the guy who titled himself as president didn't even run the race. He has no legitimacy whatsoever.

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Typhus

In other news, Roger Stone just went down:

 

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DareYokel

Took 'em long enough. When I say long enough I mean literally decades. Like Trump, Stone is a career criminal.

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Finite

Guy looks like the antagonist from a movie where a dog is the main character.

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darthYENIK

I can’t wait for three weeks when the government shuts down again.🙄

 

PS.  Kind of hope this whole thing shines a light on the TSA and how little we actually need them.  Just a big giant tax money suck.  Almost as pointless as a border wall.

Edited by darthYENIK

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Typhus
58 minutes ago, darthYENIK said:

I can’t wait for three weeks when the government shuts down again.🙄

I doubt it will. If Trump folded this time, he'll fold again. He's already trying to redefine what he wanted to accomplish by claiming that the "wall" is not really a wall at all.

He ran his mouth, claimed he wanted a shut down, and then couldn't deal with the scrutiny. In all this time, he had chance after chance to declare a national emergency but didn't do it, which I think is proof enough that he lacked any real resolve on the issue, and that the entire shut down was done in a moment of pique.

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uq7451

ojeda suspended his 2020 campaign. 

 

"Today I want to thank from the bottom of my heart all the people who have supported and believed in this campaign. The indications were very positive from an overwhelming response to our videos, to thousands of volunteers, and a level of grassroots fundraising support that grew every day. However, the last thing I want to do is accept money from people who are struggling for a campaign that does not have the ability to compete.  So today I am announcing that I am suspending this campaign."

Edited by uq7451

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