Red Dead Redemption 2: Discussion & Speculation (Part 1)

[DisCrafted]

Don't expect any news on RDR2 in May. June is more likely.

Actually, we can expect news in May. They'll just release info whenever they want to.

[Kirsty]

expect the unexpected.

Trademarked by Rockstar Games.

[saintsrow]

 

expect the unexpected.

Trademarked by Rockstar Games.

 

 

"Expect the Worst. Then, Double It." -- Rockstar NYC Marketing

[BLOOD]

 

expect the unexpected.

Trademarked by Rockstar Games.

"Keep calm and wait for eternity" Trademarked by Rockstar Games.

[Chalk]

Whilst we're all contemplating delays and have such a news drought I thought I would remind you of some snippets from the Take Two conference call on the 5th February 2017.

 

 

 

Looking ahead, fiscal 2018 promises to be another growth year for both bookings and cash flow, driven by a release slate led by Rockstar Games' eagerly anticipated launch of Red Dead Redemption 2.

 

Question from Michael Hickey - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Question about as we ramp into the release of Red Dead, do they feel that Red Dead and GTA can co-exist or find a harmony between the two. Since there is probably some overlap in the player base, will it disrupt GTA.

 

 

 

Hey, Mike. Thanks. So, we obviously believe continued engagement with GTA Online is driven at least partially by the ongoing content creation which people love. And Rockstar said they'll continue to support GTA Online with more content to come and anything more specific, of course, will come in due time from Rockstar. I don't really have a point of view on player created content to share.

And on Red Dead, I'm fond of saying entertainment is an unusual animal. And that entertainment properties don't really compete with other entertainment properties and that you never need entertainment. Entertainment is something that you want to have, but it's not a need to have. If nothing in the market appeals to you at some time, there's no reason to go and get it. And if multiple things appeal to you, avid consumers will consume all of those things.

So, I don't think there's any competitive dynamic with any of our upcoming releases apart from the fact that our success is driven by quality. So, I think, the success of Red Dead, which is highly anticipated, will be driven by its quality. And I think the ongoing success of Grand Theft Auto Online is driven by its extraordinary quality.

 

Question by Timothy O'Shea - Jefferies LLC

Question about Red Dead's online experience, what it would be like and how it compared to GTA Online.

Second question was about what kind of marketing support we can expect. Noted that back in October it kind of seemed that they set the world on fire with basically one tweet. What kind of leverage they can drive with online tools and social platforms.

 

 

So, in terms of the online experience, Rockstar will announce more in due time. And that's not something we typically talk about on these calls except to say that we're really excited about what is to come. In terms of marketing support, look, we support all of our releases very significantly. We're incredibly proud of our marketing teams throughout the company. And our support is quite significant for all of our releases. Social media is a big part of our marketing plans today. Digital media is a big part of all of our marketing plans today. Outdoor remains a big part of our plans. So I think you should expect to see with regard to all of our releases very significant marketing support.

 

Source via Seeking Alpha

 

I had to reword the questions to as to comply with the Seeking Alpha quote limit of 400 words, but its free to make an account and read the entire thing.

[J.Dillinger Blackheart]

Well the T2 earnings conference will be May 23rd 2017. Not that anything will be revealed but I just want to hear what investors & Strauss Zelnick have to say. Could May have something in store rdr2 related idk? But if RDR2 is scheduled for Fiscal 2018 release why not start full marketing come june, First Fy18 Quarter 1 or 2? To me This is why E3 seems like it could be the place T2/R* could possibly reveal RDR2 next. But anything can happen, I'm prepared for disappointment but I'm praying for the best.

Edited April 25, 2017 by highzman420

[dudeherm43]

Red dead as a franchise, do u think RD should end with RDR2 and if not how far should they push it as a series without burning it out?

The Marston story will end, they'd have to come up with a different enough character for a new game. It's not like Assassin's Creed or even GTA that they can just have the game on an entirely different city and easily come up with a new story.

 

I just finished reading a recently filed SEC form from T2, and on March 23rd 2017 they got into an exclusive deal with Sony to publish and distribute products until mid-2019 with an optional renewal.

 

 

Microsoft left in the dust again. I am glad to own a PS4

 

Glad too for having switched to Sony for this console gen. Having a buttload of fun with MLB the Show the past few weeks.

[HandSoap2811]

 

Red dead as a franchise, do u think RD should end with RDR2 and if not how far should they push it as a series without burning it out?

The Marston story will end, they'd have to come up with a different enough character for a new game. It's not like Assassin's Creed or even GTA that they can just have the game on an entirely different city and easily come up with a new story.

 

I just finished reading a recently filed SEC form from T2, and on March 23rd 2017 they got into an exclusive deal with Sony to publish and distribute products until mid-2019 with an optional renewal.

 

 

Microsoft left in the dust again. I am glad to own a PS4

 

Glad too for having switched to Sony for this console gen. Having a buttload of fun with MLB the Show the past few weeks.

Same here I was originaly going to buy a Xbox one s because of BC but then I thought of I could get a PS4 for the same price but with better games i.e. Uncharted Horizon last of us etc

[Emmi]

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Edited April 25, 2017 by .Emmi

[DGSimo]

I just finished reading a recently filed SEC form from T2, and on March 23rd 2017 they got into an exclusive deal with Sony to publish and distribute products until mid-2019 with an optional renewal.

 

 

Microsoft left in the dust again. I am glad to own a PS4

 

This is standard fare and not what you think it is. Its just a agreement that allows T2 to release products on Sony devices.

 

RDR2 will be on Xbox so there's obviously no exclusivity aside from some timed online content.

[J.Dillinger Blackheart]

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

[Emmi]

 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

 

One thing is almost certain ... if we don't get anything by mid-May we can assume that R* shows something at E3.

[TheLoneDanger]

 

 

 

by Roxie Vizcarra

 

 

 

 

 

Roxie Vizcarra lives in Brooklyn, NY and works full-time as an in-house illustrator for Rockstar Games.

 

what about this?

 

 

 

 

Bully 2 could it be?

I just seen this and I'm hyperventilating...

[TheOriginalGunslinger]

"IF" Red Dead Redemption 2 does make an appearance at E3 how would you guys and gals want to see it shown? In the beginning of the press conference (whether Microsoft's or Sony's), somewhere in the middle of the show or the very end to close it out?

[TheLoneDanger]

"IF" Red Dead Redemption 2 does make an appearance at E3 how would you guys and gals want to see it shown? In the beginning of the press conference (whether Microsoft's or Sony's), somewhere in the middle of the show or the very end to close it out?

If they're going to show it, it'd most definitely be closing the show and with screaming and cheering from the moment the people realize it's actually RDR2 to the last second of the trailer and until the show ends.... Simply because it's IMO the most anticipated game of the last decade.

[DGSimo]

 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

Just out of curiosity but where are you seeing that's when their fiscal year starts?

[DisCrafted]

 

 

 

 

by Roxie Vizcarra

 

 

 

 

 

Roxie Vizcarra lives in Brooklyn, NY and works full-time as an in-house illustrator for Rockstar Games.

 

what about this?

 

 

 

 

Bully 2 could it be?

I just seen this and I'm hyperventilating...

 

Not related to the art but Bully 2 is definitely happening...

[J.Dillinger Blackheart]

 

 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

Just out of curiosity but where are you seeing that's when their fiscal year starts? its hard to explain but Google Fiscal 2018 it should tell u.

[Kirsty]

Take Two's fiscal/financial year beings 1st April and ends 31st March, so we're currently in fiscal 2018. It's just like the tax year in the UK, not sure what it is in the US?

 

That's why when Take Two says "RDR2 will release in fiscal 2018" they effectively gave us a release window of any time up to next April. Their May conference is to report on the results of the entire fiscal 2017 and what they expect to earn over the next year.

[DGSimo]

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

Just out of curiosity but where are you seeing that's when their fiscal year starts? its hard to explain but Google Fiscal 2018 it should tell u.Oh, the KU site? That's just when their fiscal begins. Any business can set their own fiscal period which is why Take Two, Sony and Nintendo's run from April 1st to March 31st, while Microsoft's starts in June.

 

So T2 should already be in FY2018 since FY2017 ended March 31st.

 

Edit: Kirsty got it. I refuted this some pages back when Spider and others said I was wrong, but I think people are trying to Google for the answer and getting other businesses fiscal dates. lol

Edited April 25, 2017 by DGSimo

[J.Dillinger Blackheart]

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

Just out of curiosity but where are you seeing that's when their fiscal year starts?

its hard to explain but Google Fiscal 2018 it should tell u.Oh, the KU site? That's just when their fiscal begins. Any business can set their own fiscal period which is why Take Two, Sony and Nintendo's run from April 1st to March 31st, while Microsoft's starts in June.

 

So T2 should already be in FY2018 since FY2017 ended March 31st.

 

Edit: Kirsty got it. I refuted this some pages back when Spider and others said I was wrong, but I think people are trying to Google for the answer and getting other businesses fiscal dates. lol

A fiscal year quarter ending in March would mean it was for the end of 3rd quater of fy17. On T2 site in big blue letters on the report it tells you. This is the report for the final "4th quarter".There is a beginning, end, and pay date to a FY, from the end to the pay date is 13 days in between a quarter ending. http://ir.take2games.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=86428&p=quarterlyEarnings Edited April 25, 2017 by highzman420

[HandSoap2811]

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

what did he tweet he blocked me

[DGSimo]

 

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/856841177945042944

 

Interesting, a bit later than I thought - maybe we are in for fresh RDR2 news by mid-May after all?

Possibly, anything could happen. But it don't necessarily need to happen we can only wait and see what's R* next move.But Fiscal 2018 starts 6/18/2017 All I'm saying is if plans are to release something in May, why not say wait a few more weeks and knock the roof off e3 and start the marketing officially in Fy18. is all I'm saying

Just out of curiosity but where are you seeing that's when their fiscal year starts?

its hard to explain but Google Fiscal 2018 it should tell u.Oh, the KU site? That's just when their fiscal begins. Any business can set their own fiscal period which is why Take Two, Sony and Nintendo's run from April 1st to March 31st, while Microsoft's starts in June.

 

So T2 should already be in FY2018 since FY2017 ended March 31st.

 

Edit: Kirsty got it. I refuted this some pages back when Spider and others said I was wrong, but I think people are trying to Google for the answer and getting other businesses fiscal dates. lol

A fiscal year quarter ending in March would mean it was for the end of 3rd quater of fy17. On T2 site in big blue letters on the report it tells you. This is the report for the final "4th quarter".There is a beginning, end, and pay date to a FY, from the end to the pay date is 13 days in between a quarter ending. http://ir.take2games.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=86428&p=quarterlyEarnings

Lol read the first paragraph of the earnings report. Fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31st 2017.

[feckyerlife]

Take Two's fiscal/financial year beings 1st April and ends 31st March, so we're currently in fiscal 2018. It's just like the tax year in the UK, not sure what it is in the US?

 

April 18th

[BLOOD]

T2 will have almost $2 Billion in revenue and $800 million in cash flow the biggest in their history and a quarter without a GTA installment. Analysts are pegging price at $70.00 (currently at 52-week high of $62.71) I can see a market capitalization of $10 Billion if RDR2 break all records. The Q4 is May 23rd. Anyway It seems like T2 are moving away from their long-time HQ after 24 years. They are getting big (#3 in North America and Europe after EA and Activision Blizzard) so they deserve the new HQ. Hopefully it a great move.

 

Note-Edit: If T2 ever buys Zenimax it will be cool and weird to see GTA, Red Dead, BioShock, Quake, Fallout, and Elder Scrolls under one roof.

Edited April 25, 2017 by BLOOD

[volta2001]

i think they are going to do a surprise release and all of us will be playing this game on May 18th

[Zello]

"IF" Red Dead Redemption 2 does make an appearance at E3 how would you guys and gals want to see it shown? In the beginning of the press conference (whether Microsoft's or Sony's), somewhere in the middle of the show or the very end to close it out?

I think that they won't be at E3 instead they'll release a trailer on their website while E3 is going on or the day right before E3

[saintsrow]

T2 will have almost $2 Billion in revenue and $800 million in cash flow the biggest in their history and a quarter without a GTA installment. Analysts are pegging price at $70.00 (currently at 52-week high of $62.71) I can see a market capitalization of $10 Billion if RDR2 break all records. The Q4 is May 23rd. Anyway It seems like T2 are moving away from their long-time HQ after 24 years. They are getting big (#3 in North America and Europe after EA and Activision Blizzard) so they deserve the new HQ. Hopefully it a great move.

 

Note-Edit: If T2 ever buys Zenimax it will be cool and weird to see GTA, Red Dead, BioShock, Quake, Fallout, and Elder Scrolls under one roof.

When Rockstar disappoints on their expected 1Q or 2Q RDR2 announcements and TTWO stock drops 20%, I'm not going to miss this buy opportunity like I did when TTWO hit a low of $8 per share in July 2012 after disappointing non-news about GTAV.

[BLOOD]

 

T2 will have almost $2 Billion in revenue and $800 million in cash flow the biggest in their history and a quarter without a GTA installment. Analysts are pegging price at $70.00 (currently at 52-week high of $62.71) I can see a market capitalization of $10 Billion if RDR2 break all records. The Q4 is May 23rd. Anyway It seems like T2 are moving away from their long-time HQ after 24 years. They are getting big (#3 in North America and Europe after EA and Activision Blizzard) so they deserve the new HQ. Hopefully it a great move.

 

Note-Edit: If T2 ever buys Zenimax it will be cool and weird to see GTA, Red Dead, BioShock, Quake, Fallout, and Elder Scrolls under one roof.

When Rockstar disappoints on their expected 1Q or 2Q RDR2 announcements and TTWO stock drops 20%, I'm not going to miss this buy opportunity like I did when TTWO hit a low of $8 per share in July 2012 after disappointing non-news about GTAV.

Haha nice one but the shocking thing is T2 is getting to a milestone in a year without GTA. And another $50-100 million in their sheets every quarter going forward from both mobile free-to-play (Social Point) and e-sports (NBA 2K Eleague) is just Great. Interestingly Strauss Zelnick is building out his Family Trusts ownership in T2.

[Zello]

Note-Edit: If T2 ever buys Zenimax it will be cool and weird to see GTA, Red Dead, BioShock, Quake, Fallout, and Elder Scrolls under one roof.

That would be horrible imo what's up with you and wanting T2 to buy up every single developer out there in order to have some sort of monopoly in the video game industry.