[Poll] GTA VI Release Date Predictions

[lngtrw]

Just now, Paper Mario said:

Haha, ok.. let's not get our hopes up THAT much, lol.. A spring 2024 release would be highly unlikely. Like, I think a Fall 2024 release already is unlikely, but not entirely out of the question quite yet.

Facts, the game appeared to be in a much polished state compared to the state V was in, when it was first revealed. 

[Xtra510]

spring 2025 imo 

[Lexiture]

4 minutes ago, Bizz91 said:

Something like a 3 to 6 month promo stuff?

Yes. And online releasing like 6 months after singleplayer.

[Dinamite]

GTA VI in 2022 september leaks was more polished than GTA V in reveal trailer, and this was over a year ago, its safe to say it will be released in 2024, maybe October or November

Edited November 13, 2023 by Dinamite
Mistake

[joe1606]

1 minute ago, Lexiture said:

Let's not forget that in early 2022 the game was well underway.

 

If the leak about Sam buying billboards is true the game could release earlier than we think. Like in Spring 2024. 

 

I like to think that a spring 2024 release is not that far fetched. If R* actually made changes to the working conditions to avoid crunch and burnouts, maybe the game is already finished?

[The-Ghost]

3 minutes ago, joe1606 said:

 

I like to think that a spring 2024 release is not that far fetched. If R* actually made changes to the working conditions to avoid crunch and burnouts, maybe the game is already finished?

Little too early in my opinion, we'd be at the second trailer or third if we're looking at a Spring release, Fall is realistic, the optimistic in me wants a Fall release with no delays, the pessimistic in me thinks it will be announced for Fall 2024 and then delayed to 2025.

 

Of course, I'll take being proven wrong any day of the week, the sooner I get this freaking game, the better.

Edited November 13, 2023 by The-Ghost

[Dostoyevskiy]

Tbh I honestly could see Spring 2024 release date and the end of the trailer only to it be delayed to Fall 2024 in February to pleasure all these "rockstar always do delays " believers

[Zapper]

18 minutes ago, Lexiture said:

If the leak about Sam buying billboards is true the game could release earlier than we think. Like in Spring 2024. 

 

Spring 2024 is more or less out of the question when you factor in T2's projected financials for FY2025. Their forecast would be noticeably higher if VI was a spring 2024 game. They'd get almost an entire year of sales that way. RDR2 sold about 27M copies in its first year. VI will very likely do 35-40M+ units (due to console userbase being relatively lower if it comes out sooner) plus online revenue. That'd result in way higher net bookings in FY2025 than they're predicting. If the PC version comes out in the meantime, the number will be even higher.

 

The game will need no more than 3-4 months of sales to achieve the current projections.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Zapper

[wqx]

I have even hopes for Spring 2024, yes you heard it right.

[Intstringeger]

I know TTWO's financial projections suggest a 2024 release date, but it seems like wishful thinking when past games didn't even have a release windows on their reveal trailers.

 

Of course no previous GTA game had been cooking this long before being announced.

[Lexiture]

7 minutes ago, joe1606 said:

 

maybe the game is already finished?

 

It's what I think. Let's also not forget that the release is supposed to be moderately sized and then expanded over time.

 

My dumb speculation is partly based on the presumption that they're trying to avoid their past mistakes, especially crunch.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Lexiture
Misc.

[Dobble]

I'm thinking they'll announce a release for Q4 of 2024 but "delay" it into the first half of 2025

[Zapper]

1 minute ago, Lexiture said:

Let's also not forget that the release is supposed to be moderately sized and then expanded over time.

 

There's a catch to that. It's moderate compared to their original vision. The initial game is still supposed to be a large game by Rockstar's standards.

[Rokussi]

At least we'll have another year of quality GTA Online content until then 

[Xilurm]

If they actually announce that the game is coming in 6-7 months that'd be insane. It's also not unrealistic to think it will be next year though. RDR2 was announced 3 years after GTAV, and then it had 2 more years of development. So that's 3+2. GTAVI has already been in development since 2018 and that's 5 years already. I don't think we're going to be waiting too long after the trailer.

[TheHoover69]

It's gonna be 2024. I got faith

[TheEdge2008]

I think the game will come in early 2025 imo. But it will be insane if the game comes in end 2024 tho 

[Zapper]

2 minutes ago, Xilurm said:

GTAVI has already been in development since 2018 and that's 5 years already. I don't think we're going to be waiting too long after the trailer.

 

You really have to factor COVID in. It single-handedly delayed and slowed down the production for like 12-15+ months, like so many other titles.

[Spider-Vice]

57 minutes ago, Gdog said:

People thinking this game is coming out in 2024 are running on 100% pure hopium. It's not coming out Spring/Summer 2025. Earliest will be Fall '25. I wouldn't be surprised if it's pushed into 2026 to be honest.

 

Listen I think Q1 2025 is perfectly possible and perhaps likely considering the possible sheer scale of this game and how long the end-stages of a game's development can take, but I swear some of the people who say 2026 have to be trolling. There is no way you believe that lmao.

 

Not everything has to be exactly mimicking previous R* releases. If the game released in early 2025 it would still be less painful than GTA V was. Granted, I don't think the game is "finished" either like some people seem to say lmao, not how it works. But 2026 is just a ridiculous thing to even speculate about and just seems like bait.

[nightjar]

1 minute ago, Zapper said:

You really have to factor COVID in. It single-handedly delayed and slowed down the production for like 12-15+ months, like so many other titles.

not saying covid shouldn't be factored in but to treat it as a 12-15 month delay is kind of nuts to me. i work in tech and it wasn't nearly that disruptive to us. i think the effect of covid was much more pronounced if your game was ABOUT to ship in 2020/21, due to logistics, distribution, etc.

[Zapper]

8 minutes ago, nightjar said:

not saying covid shouldn't be factored in but to treat it as a 12-15 month delay is kind of nuts to me. i work in tech and it wasn't nearly that disruptive to us. i think the effect of covid was much more pronounced if your game was ABOUT to ship in 2020/21, due to logistics, distribution, etc.

 

That is true, but Schreier did say say a late 2022 release was still on the cards back in mid-2020. The original Project Americas said that a 2021-'22 release was possible.

 

And nothing regarding R* suggests to me that they're a studio that'd swiftly shift to a work-from-home environment. It definitely affected their schedules in a substantial way. Hell, they virtually stopped supporting RDO when remote work started. Plus, mocap was stalled for months.

[Performer]

September 2024! 

 

[Ser_Salty]

14 minutes ago, Zapper said:

 

Spring 2024 is more or less out of the question when you factor in T2's projected financials for FY2025. Their forecast would be noticeably higher if VI was a spring 2024 game. They'd get almost an entire year of sales that way. RDR2 sold about 27M copies in its first year. VI will very likely do 35-40M+ units (due to console userbase being relatively lower if it comes out sooner) plus online revenue. That'd result in way higher net bookings in FY2025 than they're predicting. If the PC version comes out in the meantime, the number will be even higher.

 

The game will need no more than 3-4 months of sales to achieve the current projections.

GTA V made just under 2 billion by May 2014, with over 30 million copies sold and admittedly very little reason to buy shark cards for most of that time. 3 billion in 3-4 months would be a 50% increase in revenue in half the time or less. That would be absolutely insane growth that even GTA will be hard pressed to pull off. GTA V and Onlines best year post-release, 2020, made them just under 1 billion. For GTA VI to make 3 billion in 3-4 months, it would have to sell more copies than GTA V did on release, by a lot, and it would have to have an absolutely insane amount of revenue generated through microtransactions, more in 3-4 months than GTA Onlines best year did, when it hit player and revenue records due to the pandemic keeping everyone home. Would a full year of revenue from a spring release go over 3 billion? Probably, at least by some amount. But I think +-8 months is much more reasonable than thinking it can hit 3 billion in 3 months. Sales tend to slow down a lot after the first month or so. GTA V sold 29 million by the end of October. By the end of 2014, they sold 45 million, with 10 of those being for the PS4/X1 version. Meaning in 14 months, the PS3 and 360 versions of GTA V had only sold an additional 6 million copies, and the new versions hadn't been announced for 8 of those months, and of those 10 million sold, a lot were people upgrading. I don't think a new version is gonna come out a year after release already for GTA VI.

[Zapper]

3 minutes ago, Ser_Salty said:

GTA V made just under 2 billion by May 2014, with over 30 million copies sold and admittedly very little reason to buy shark cards for most of that time. 3 billion in 3-4 months would be a 50% increase in revenue in half the time or less. That would be absolutely insane growth that even GTA will be hard pressed to pull off. GTA V and Onlines best year post-release, 2020, made them just under 1 billion. For GTA VI to make 3 billion in 3-4 months, it would have to sell more copies than GTA V did on release, by a lot, and it would have to have an absolutely insane amount of revenue generated through microtransactions, more in 3-4 months than GTA Onlines best year did, when it hit player and revenue records due to the pandemic keeping everyone home. Would a full year of revenue from a spring release go over 3 billion? Probably, at least by some amount. But I think +-8 months is much more reasonable than thinking it can hit 3 billion in 3 months. Sales tend to slow down a lot after the first month or so. GTA V sold 29 million by the end of October. By the end of 2014, they sold 45 million, with 10 of those being for the PS4/X1 version. Meaning in 14 months, the PS3 and 360 versions of GTA V had only sold an additional 6 million copies, and the new versions hadn't been announced for 8 of those months, and of those 10 million sold, a lot were people upgrading. I don't think a new version is gonna come out a year after release already for GTA VI.

 

Eh, where exactly are you getting the $3B increase? They're projecting a $2.5-2.65B increase in net bookings since they already reached $5.35B last fiscal year, and it's not like 100% of that has to be due to VI.

 

And in the meantime, RDR2 sold almost as fast V in it's launch quarter (23M/130M vs. 32M/160M), and that franchise doesn't have anywhere near the same legacy or popularity as GTA, and that was half a decade ago. So, imagine what a brand new GTA can do in 2024. Plus, each copy of VI will cost $10-15 more on a baseline than both V and RDR2.

 

All in all, you simply can't compare what GTA did a decade ago with today. It is a significantly larger IP now, and GTAO is also at a different level in terms of brand value. It's naive to think otherwise. The game very likely can do $2-2.3B+ in 3-4 months just from unit sales alone (30-35M x average $65), if it's a late 2024 game when the console userbase is ~90-100M. Even more if it comes to PC in that timeframe. They have GTA+ now to do different things as well.

 

And the number of people buying a new GTA will always exceed the number of people upgrading one.

[Ser_Salty]

6 minutes ago, Zapper said:

 

Eh, where exactly are you getting the $3B increase? They're projecting a $2.5-2.65B increase in net bookings since they already reached $5.35B last fiscal year, and it's not like 100% of that has to be due to VI.

 

And in the meantime, RDR2 sold almost as fast V in it's launch quarter (23M/130M vs. 32M/160M), and that franchise doesn't have anywhere near the same legacy or popularity as GTA, and that was half a decade ago. So, imagine what a brand new GTA can do in 2024. Plus, each copy of VI will cost $10-15 more on a baseline than both V and RDR2.

 

All in all, you simply can't compare what GTA did a decade ago with today. It is a significantly larger IP now, and GTAO is also at a different level in terms of brand value. It's naive to think otherwise. The game very likely can do $2-2.3B+ in 3-4 months just from unit sales alone (30-35M x average $65), if it's a late 2024 game when the console userbase is ~90-100M. Even more if it comes to PC in that timeframe. They have GTA+ now to do different things as well.

 

And the number of people buying a new GTA will always exceed the number of people upgrading one.

I still think 3-4 months is too short a timeframe for it, but yeah, I get your point. I'm thinking more along the lines of 6 months now, which would put it firmly in an October release timeframe.

[Zapper]

3 minutes ago, Ser_Salty said:

I still think 3-4 months is too short a timeframe for it, but yeah, I get your point. I'm thinking more along the lines of 6 months now, which would put it firmly in an October release timeframe.

 

And that's what makes me sceptical of a day 1 PC release. The projections should've been noticeably higher in that way.

[Ser_Salty]

Just now, Zapper said:

 

And that's what makes me sceptical of a day 1 PC release. The projections should've been noticeably higher in that way.

Wait, nevermind, it's releasing 3 days before the end of the fiscal year with a day 1 PC release

[Zapper]

3 minutes ago, Ser_Salty said:

Wait, nevermind, it's releasing 3 days before the end of the fiscal year with a day 1 PC release

 

That might do the trick. Wait, lemme call Strauss right now...

[possumbasement]

2024, for me, really is not out of the question yet at all. Once we see the trailer, we will get a muuuch better idea of where the game is at development-wise (especially because there is footage to compare it to), and I'll probably have a better guess if Rockstar doesn't have a date for us to munch on, and that's another conversation it itself.

Edited November 13, 2023 by possumbaseement

[Montana...]

Make mine a double shot of hopium.

 

2024 release date.