[Poll] GTA VI Release Date Predictions

[Zapper]

9 minutes ago, GhostFR said:

Spring24 earliest, late 24 latest. Anything further than that makes no sense IMHO with the financial forecast.

 

Why not? VI could easily sell 30-35M+ units in 4-5 months from, say, October 2024 and the end of T2's FY2025, i.e., March 31, 2025, covering the $2-2.5B jump. And the forecasts could always be delayed, like it happened again and again with previous R* titles.

 

And I'd say their forecast would be noticeably higher if VI was a spring 2024 game. They'd get almost an entire year of sales that way. RDR2 sold about 27M copies in its first year. VI most likely will do 40-50M+. That'd result in way higher net bookings in FY2025 than they're predicting.

[Dostoyevskiy]

I don't want to jinx it, but for me 2024 is almost given. The game was looking like it needed the final touch in 2022 leaks and it's still 11 months to go until Fall 2024. If you believe in leaks, then new Rockstar policy regarding crunch tells me, that they would announce the title only when they're sure they can deliver orginal planned date.

[Spider-Vice]

Games "looking late in development" is always a red herring. Games can look presentable even in what's considered alpha stages - just because some art is already presentable it doesn't mean the rest of the systems are anywhere close to functioning as planned and so on. The leaks had a metric ton of temp and incomplete art in them, and considering how long some of this stuff can take in game development, there was a toooooooooon of work to do even if the untrained eye might make it seem like it was looking good (and it was, but it's no indication of how "finished" it is necessarily)

 

I always keep referring to the massive 20 hour documentary about Psychonauts 2 - they were still in alpha as all the planned systems, features etc weren't quite set in stone yet, but some of the levels looked what you could call "final" and playable... and even then they were not. Some were even scrapped. By 2019 the game looked perfectly fine, some things even close to final - it released late 2021 as that's when it was truly finished. Remember we didn't see a lot of the rest of the map, there were probably areas that looked like nothing yet  

 

Megasized games like GTA VI, on top of having thousands of different things to maintain and develop to a standard, and tens of thousands of assets to do art passes over multiple times, also need to be QA'd extensively, and heavily when they reach some sort of near-feature lock (or what people can call "beta"). Consider that a game like GTA has probably hundreds of thousands of different variations of every single thing to test and pore through, that QA testers also have to look at art bugs (seams in geometry, holes in the map, other inconsistencies) and so on, and that's like an entire year just for that.

 

Late 2024 is a possibility but I wouldn't be surprised, and it wouldn't be shocking at all considering the potential sheer scale of the project, that early 2025 is the date too.

[GranVespucci]

What if the trailer said Summer 2025. How would you guys react? 

Edited November 13, 2023 by GranVespucci

[JohnCGaming]

2 minutes ago, GranVespucci said:

What if the trailer said Summer 2025. How would you guys react? 

 

"Babe, I know we said we would get married at this time of year but you got to cut me a little slack."

[vazadika]

4 minutes ago, GranVespucci said:

What if the trailer said Summer 2025. How would you guys react? 

I don't even know what's better, release in 2024 knowing they'll delay until 2025, or release immediately in 2025 with no delays

[Kuyarei]

1 minute ago, ilikebigbobs said:

I don't even know what's better, release in 2024 knowing they'll delay until 2025, or release immediately in 2025 with no delays

I wouldn't really call a 2025 release "immediate" lol

[big_man]

3 minutes ago, ilikebigbobs said:

I don't even know what's better, release in 2024 knowing they'll delay until 2025, or release immediately in 2025 with no delays

Or release in 2025 and delay to 2026

[Gdog]

6 minutes ago, GranVespucci said:

What if the trailer said Summer 2025. How would you guys react? 

I'd call bullsh*t because they aren't going to release it in summer. It'll be out September > November 2025.

 

People thinking this game is coming out in 2024 are running on 100% pure hopium. It's not coming out Spring/Summer 2025. Earliest will be Fall '25. I wouldn't be surprised if it's pushed into 2026 to be honest.

 

If Rockstar gives us a date then do not believe it until we're only a few months away from whatever date they give. They scrapped the "Spring 2013" release for V in January '13. I didn't believe in the September date until like ~June/July lol.

 

 

[lngtrw]

1 minute ago, big_man said:

Or release in 2025 and delay to 2026

That’s 13 years of GTA V

[Paper Mario]

I feel a Sept/Oct 2024 release is quite likely

 

If the trailer did say Summer 2025, I'd kinda wished they didn't already announce it by now... but ah well.. they kinda already did anyway back in Feb 2022

Edited November 13, 2023 by Paper Mario

[Gdog]

1 minute ago, Paper Mario said:

I feel a Sept/Oct 2024 release is quite likely

Not a snowballs chance in hell.

[lngtrw]

1 minute ago, Gdog said:

Not a snowballs chance in hell.

Okay smartie

[Gdog]

1 minute ago, lngtrw said:

Okay smartie

What's your prediction then?

[Dostoyevskiy]

2 minutes ago, Gdog said:

Not a snowballs chance in hell.

Game was already delayed many times, they need to be sure if they're annoucing any date. Times change. btw. not a snowballs chance in hell that it releases after 2024? and what now? 

[Gdog]

Just now, Dostoyevskiy said:

Game was already delayed many times, they need to be sure if they're annoucing any date. Times change. btw. not a snowballs chance in hell that it releases after 2024? and what now? 

I said there is no way it's coming out in 2024. I'd love to be proven wrong but I'm telling myself it's late 2025 earliest.

[lngtrw]

Just now, Gdog said:

What's your prediction then?

There is literally no reason to exclude Fall 2024, it’s unlikely but it could still happen.

 

As for my prediction I wouldn’t really go beyond Spring 2025

[Paper Mario]

4 minutes ago, Gdog said:

Not a snowballs chance in hell.

why not? could be..

[Gdog]

1 minute ago, Paper Mario said:

why not? could be..

It could be but very much doubt it.

[wqx]

We'll have another investors call in Spring 2024 and if Zelnick reaffirms the revenue projection I would say that it is safe we'll get this game in Fall 2024 because else they don't have enough time to make that money in fiscal year 2025 (Spring 2024 - Spring 2025). Moreover, I expect Rockstar to know if there's something that could delay the game and communicate with T2 in advance.

 

I don't like this pessimism here with ppl claiming that we could have to wait up to two years.

Edited November 13, 2023 by wqx

[SharksFlyUp]

4 minutes ago, wqx said:

We'll have another investors call in Spring 2024 and if Zelnick reaffirms the revenue projection I would say that it is safe we'll get this game in Fall 2024 because else they don't have enough time to make that money in fiscal year 2025 (Spring 2024 - Spring 2025). Moreover, I expect Rockstar to know if there's something that could delay the game and communicate with T2 in advance.

 

I don't like this pessimism here with ppl claiming that we could have to wait up to two years.

Yep, we'll see what they say in February and May but right now, the 8B (or not materially below) projection is holding, and it's GTA VI sized. Puts current planned release date no later than Spring 25.

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, JohnCGaming said:

 

"Babe, I know we said we would get married at this time of year but you got to cut me a little slack."

I read that in Robert De Niro's voice.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Bizz91

[Dinamite]

17 minutes ago, Gdog said:

I'd call bullsh*t because they aren't going to release it in summer. It'll be out September > November 2025.

 

People thinking this game is coming out in 2024 are running on 100% pure hopium. It's not coming out Spring/Summer 2025. Earliest will be Fall '25. I wouldn't be surprised if it's pushed into 2026 to be honest.

 

If Rockstar gives us a date then do not believe it until we're only a few months away from whatever date they give. They scrapped the "Spring 2013" release for V in January '13. I didn't believe in the September date until like ~June/July lol.

 

 

Let's do a 10000€ bet if you are so sure. It will be 2024.

[Guest]

14th Nov 2024 release date or

12th Feb 2025.

[LotusRIP]

I reckon they will announce October 2024 release date, just to drive up interest and pre-sales stuff.

 

But secretly, they plan to delay and release March/April 2025.

 

Classic Rockstar release scheduling

[Lexiture]

Let's not forget that in early 2022 the game was well underway.

 

If the leak about Sam buying billboards is true the game could release earlier than we think. Like in Spring 2024. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Lexiture said:

Let's not forget that in early 2022 the game was well underway.

 

If the leak about Sam buying billboards is true the game could release earlier than we think. Like in Spring 2024. 

Something like a 3 to 6 month promo stuff?

[FannoF]

29 minutes ago, Gdog said:

I'd call bullsh*t because they aren't going to release it in summer. It'll be out September > November 2025.

 

People thinking this game is coming out in 2024 are running on 100% pure hopium. It's not coming out Spring/Summer 2025. Earliest will be Fall '25. I wouldn't be surprised if it's pushed into 2026 to be honest.

 

If Rockstar gives us a date then do not believe it until we're only a few months away from whatever date they give. They scrapped the "Spring 2013" release for V in January '13. I didn't believe in the September date until like ~June/July lol.

 

 

You’re talking like you know how far into development they are. 
 

For all we know the game is nearly finished and ready to be released within 12 months

[Paper Mario]

Haha, ok.. let's not get our hopes up THAT much, lol.. A spring 2024 release would be highly unlikely. Like, I think a Fall 2024 release already is unlikely, but not entirely out of the question quite yet.

[nightjar]

36 minutes ago, Gdog said:

Earliest will be Fall '25. I wouldn't be surprised if it's pushed into 2026 to be honest.

that would blow past T2's own projections for FY25. it just feels kinda smug to be like "not a CHANCE it's 2024" as if you know better than anyone else, or vs what has actually been hinted. what's the opposite of hopium? doomposting? you sound like the people who were so sure there'd be no announcement after rocktober tbh.

 

not to mention that a LOT of devs were responding to the announcement saying things like they couldn't wait to show off their work, how proud they were of each other. that sounds to me like a lot of work has happened already, like this is the leadup to launch. announcing a game and then having it be 2 or more years away feels like the exact sort of thing they'd try to avoid this time with the apparent 'culture' change. and with a lot of senior leadership leaving, i think it could actually be different now.

Edited November 13, 2023 by nightjar