[Poll] GTA VI Release Date Predictions

[GTA-VI]

On 9/12/2023 at 7:43 AM, Ekow said:

This October...

50% chance

[hardBallas]

Reveal will be either on a random ass day in October this year, or probably in the first half of next year, also on a random ass day

[Gdog]

Same as last time... teaser (new logo on the R* site) and a countdown in October then trailer early November. 25th or 26th October for teaser/countdown and trailer on the 1st or 2nd November. I'm 99% confident that it'll be revealed next month. I just can't see them revealing it next spring or going another year without saying anything about it.

 

It's Rockstar so you need to add another 2 years onto it for the game to actually release. So if they announce it next month then it won't be out until 2025. At a push, if they had planned to reveal it last year but didn't because of the leaks then maybe we'll get it late 2024 but I don't really believe that'll happen. It's most definitely a 2025 game and then a PC release in 2026.

 

There is that 1% chance that they will go another year but I'd be shocked. They might be holding off as long as possible so they can release it near the end of the console generation so that they can sell it on PS5 and then again on PS6 a year or two later.

[Paper Mario]

13 hours ago, hardBallas said:

Reveal will be either on a random ass day in October this year, or probably in the first half of next year, also on a random ass day

kinda like their initial random ass announcement of working on VI in February last year? lol

[neoslice]

[Len Lfc]

On 7/14/2023 at 4:19 PM, Len Lfc said:

Got a new date in mind. Based on previous announcements, for GTA V & RDR2. They typically came 2 weeks before the Take-Two Interactive Q3 earnings report. Now, we don't know the date just yet, we haven't gotten Q2, yet. But based on my speculation;

 

October 24th 2023.

I forgot to revisit this. As I said, Announcements typically came 2 weeks before an earnings call. Since now we have the date for the Q2 earnings call; November 8th, an October 24th announcement makes perfect sense as it is 2 weeks and a day later. There's still by no means any guarantee. But if it is announced this year, that is when it would be.

https://www.take2games.com/ir/quarterly-earnings

[gtaman533]

On 10/18/2023 at 6:34 PM, Len Lfc said:

I forgot to revisit this. As I said, Announcements typically came 2 weeks before an earnings call. Since now we have the date for the Q2 earnings call; November 8th, an October 24th announcement makes perfect sense as it is 2 weeks and a day later. There's still by no means any guarantee. But if it is announced this year, that is when it would be.

https://www.take2games.com/ir/quarterly-earnings

Sadness today as it hasnt been announced on the 24th, my new theory is too many people were eyeing this day the will chose another day this week or next before the earnings call, if radio silence our only hope is early 2024, March??

Edited October 24, 2023 by gtaman533

[CM1]

What a damn mess. Anyway, I have no idea if the GTA IV formula rollout might be in play here or worse.

 

Retroactively treating the February 4, 2022 disclosure as a soft announcement, punishing the desperate public for jumping on last year's leaks, and withholding a trailer, until absolute certainty on 95-98% completion, to ensure nothing looks as rough as those leaks.

 

Then saving a reveal until 6ish months ahead of projected release, like GTA IV in March 29, 2007 trailer vs October 16, 2007 and not like the past games that fell into massive delays after reveal, in GTA V and RDR 2.

 

It could mean at worst a VI reveal in spring 2024, if still due for release in Q4 2024.

 

Studying the progression in the leaks and latest clips dated September 13, 2022, another 2 years of development from that point (ie going gold September 2024) I'd hope to be sufficient with no more delays.

 

I mean, it has been 11 years (by then) and 6 years (with all studios involved) after RDR 2 should be enough.

 

I don't see why it wouldn't, as I'm doubtful this game was always meant for 2024 release. Maybe not 2021-22, but definitely not 2024-early 25 until COVID affected things.

 

Mid-Late 2025 makes little sense for a game that has been allegedly downscaled in the first place.

 

Good for business to not require multiple titles for profitability or survival, but Rockstar also need to give themselves room to work on other projects (if any on deck previously).

 

At this rate, "45 years worth of ideas" will end up becoming only two more additional GTA titles at most after VI in Vice City. That's absurd and I don't apologize for expressing that. I'm not necessarily expecting a new game every year.

 

Rockstar need to buckle down after VI is done and revamp their development lead times, into more manageable timetables without experiencing crunch.

 

No one expects new AAA titles every 2-3 years either, but efficiency is also very important. Try to be releasing new titles every 4-5 years, on creative principle, while not hurting the bottom line too much.

 

Unless RG just want to be making only successive GTA and RDR titles every 10-15 years going forward and forget about anything else (new, other sequels).

 

These increasing gaps add up quickly.

 

I've never played Bully, but I've heard from other people who did and looked forward to a future Bully 2. A new Max Payne, Agent, etc.

 

At the rate things are going, people looking forward to other new titles, just might never see them in their lifetimes.

 

I mean, is RDR 3 going to release in 2033 then? And after that GTA VII in 2042?

 

I base these criticisms, on the smug apologists (essentially enablers) who come after those of us, that first and foremost, see time as not something to waste and take for granted. Again, not on the principle of profitability with minimal risk as a business, but creative principle.

 

By the time there's another GTA after this one, Zelnick himself might be more than an octogenarian, in being currently in his mid-60s. What does that mean for the rest of us?

 

I'm hoping they are not using these gaps of consequence (delays) as license to increase them by multiple factors with each new release (6-7 years between RDR 2 to VI vs 5 years for V & RDR 2).

 

Keep doing that and they'll be at 8, 9, 10, 11 year gaps between releases in no time. I'm not prepared to be waiting 15-20 years between different GTAs TBH. That's stupidly ridiculous.

 

No one expects the days of PS2 titles of 1 or 2 year gaps, but ever increasing gaps on top of currently 6-7 years is frightening.

 

Hopefully RDR 2 and VI were the rare exception, in making huge internal transitions in the midst of external factors (global disasters) and these gestation cycles will finally be more within reason after VI.

[Paper Mario]

8 hours ago, CM1 said:

-snip-

I'm not sure, but as games keep getting more advanced, and Rockstar always wanting to make the best possible game they can, the time it takes to develop these games might actually increase from 6-7 years to even more down the line. Maybe not 15-20 years though, lol.. that's ridiculous..

[Collibosher]

1 hour ago, Paper Mario said:

I'm not sure, but as games keep getting more advanced, and Rockstar always wanting to make the best possible game they can, the time it takes to develop these games might actually increase from 6-7 years to even more down the line. Maybe not 15-20 years though, lol.. that's ridiculous..

I expect the AI to compensate this a lot, as we all know the AI can not only do coding, it can produce art/design and even voice lines and narratives. The mortal game developers are going to be able to relieve themselves from the many mundane time consuming tasks and concentrate more on new ideas and innovations.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Paper Mario said:

I'm not sure, but as games keep getting more advanced, and Rockstar always wanting to make the best possible game they can, the time it takes to develop these games might actually increase from 6-7 years to even more down the line. Maybe not 15-20 years though, lol.. that's ridiculous..

Safe to think that gaming development technologies, like AI as @Collibosher said, will also advance in the future. Also current devs rely on knowledges from already existing technology, it will take time to learn and adapt with newer techs.

 

What's taking 8-10 years right now for a single game might only take 4-6 years in the future. It's completely possible that after GTA VI, the gap would actually be decreased.

Edited October 25, 2023 by wise_man

[Patrizio]

12 hours ago, CM1 said:

What a damn mess. Anyway, I have no idea if the GTA IV formula rollout might be in play here or worse.

 

Retroactively treating the February 4, 2022 disclosure as a soft announcement, punishing the desperate public for jumping on last year's leaks, and withholding a trailer, until absolute certainty on 95-98% completion, to ensure nothing looks as rough as those leaks.

 

Then saving a reveal until 6ish months ahead of projected release, like GTA IV in March 29, 2007 trailer vs October 16, 2007 and not like the past games that fell into massive delays after reveal, in GTA V and RDR 2.

 

It could mean at worst a VI reveal in spring 2024, if still due for release in Q4 2024.

 

Studying the progression in the leaks and latest clips dated September 13, 2022, another 2 years of development from that point (ie going gold September 2024) I'd hope to be sufficient with no more delays.

 

I mean, it has been 11 years (by then) and 6 years (with all studios involved) after RDR 2 should be enough.

 

I don't see why it wouldn't, as I'm doubtful this game was always meant for 2024 release. Maybe not 2021-22, but definitely not 2024-early 25 until COVID affected things.

 

Mid-Late 2025 makes little sense for a game that has been allegedly downscaled in the first place.

 

Good for business to not require multiple titles for profitability or survival, but Rockstar also need to give themselves room to work on other projects (if any on deck previously).

 

At this rate, "45 years worth of ideas" will end up becoming only two more additional GTA titles at most after VI in Vice City. That's absurd and I don't apologize for expressing that. I'm not necessarily expecting a new game every year.

 

Rockstar need to buckle down after VI is done and revamp their development lead times, into more manageable timetables without experiencing crunch.

 

No one expects new AAA titles every 2-3 years either, but efficiency is also very important. Try to be releasing new titles every 4-5 years, on creative principle, while not hurting the bottom line too much.

 

Unless RG just want to be making only successive GTA and RDR titles every 10-15 years going forward and forget about anything else (new, other sequels).

 

These increasing gaps add up quickly.

 

I've never played Bully, but I've heard from other people who did and looked forward to a future Bully 2. A new Max Payne, Agent, etc.

 

At the rate things are going, people looking forward to other new titles, just might never see them in their lifetimes.

 

I mean, is RDR 3 going to release in 2033 then? And after that GTA VII in 2042?

 

I base these criticisms, on the smug apologists (essentially enablers) who come after those of us, that first and foremost, see time as not something to waste and take for granted. Again, not on the principle of profitability with minimal risk as a business, but creative principle.

 

By the time there's another GTA after this one, Zelnick himself might be more than an octogenarian, in being currently in his mid-60s. What does that mean for the rest of us?

 

I'm hoping they are not using these gaps of consequence (delays) as license to increase them by multiple factors with each new release (6-7 years between RDR 2 to VI vs 5 years for V & RDR 2).

 

Keep doing that and they'll be at 8, 9, 10, 11 year gaps between releases in no time. I'm not prepared to be waiting 15-20 years between different GTAs TBH. That's stupidly ridiculous.

 

No one expects the days of PS2 titles of 1 or 2 year gaps, but ever increasing gaps on top of currently 6-7 years is frightening.

 

Hopefully RDR 2 and VI were the rare exception, in making huge internal transitions in the midst of external factors (global disasters) and these gestation cycles will finally be more within reason after VI.

Well said. Good point bringing up IV's announcement and trailer cycle too.

[Fetooh]

At this rate , it should be announced in early 2024 , release date will not be earlier than late 2025

[Paper Mario]

3 hours ago, wise_man said:

Safe to think that gaming development technologies, like AI as @Collibosher said, will also advance in the future. Also current devs rely on knowledges from already existing technology, it will take time to learn and adapt with newer techs.

 

What's taking 8-10 years right now for a single game might only take 4-6 years in the future. It's completely possible that after GTA VI, the gap would actually be decreased.

huh... that might be the case.. not sure how quickly a.i will evolve into alleviating a lot of mundane work, but i am curious to see where it goes. I just hope the worlds will stay mostly handcrafted and whatnot. I do see videos sometimes with those unreal engine updates, and how stuff keeps getting better and better

[ClimateLockdowns]

Do you think teapotuberhacker leak has something to do with this delay of the annoucement ? maybe they have had to change the story due to main characters being leaked they can't change the setting now it's 110% Vice City but the story maybe it if wasn't 100% finished 

[Ser_Salty]

3 hours ago, wise_man said:

Safe to think that gaming development technologies, like AI as @Collibosher said, will also advance in the future. Also current devs rely on knowledges from already existing technology, it will take time to learn and adapt with newer techs.

 

What's taking 8-10 years right now for a single game might only take 4-6 years in the future. It's completely possible that after GTA VI, the gap would actually be decreased.

One thing I've been saying is that the gaming industry as a whole needs to figure out a way to cut down development times. You can't keep a franchise alive with one game per decade, if we're lucky. 11-12 years between GTA V and VI, probably 15 years between TES V and VI... it's just not sustainable long term. Wether AI can be used to cutdown workload (without cutting out actual devs, actors, artists etc.), or if they just need to reevaluate their priorities, something needs to change in the industry. Otherwise you'll end up buying a console just for 2 games because nothing else interesting ends up releasing that generation. COVID obviously didn't help, making already long dev times even longer.

Maybe, just maybe, games don't need to perfectly chisel out and simulate the pores on a characters buttcheek.

10 minutes ago, ClimateLockdowns said:

Do you think teapotuberhacker leak has something to do with this delay of the annoucement ? maybe they have had to change the story due to main characters being leaked they can't change the setting now it's 110% Vice City but the story maybe it if wasn't 100% finished 

We saw basically f*ck all of the story. Like 2 minutes in the nightclub that are actually related to story missions, but we've seen nothing else.

[JohnCGaming]

37 minutes ago, Ser_Salty said:

One thing I've been saying is that the gaming industry as a whole needs to figure out a way to cut down development times. You can't keep a franchise alive with one game per decade, if we're lucky. 11-12 years between GTA V and VI, probably 15 years between TES V and VI... it's just not sustainable long term. Wether AI can be used to cutdown workload (without cutting out actual devs, actors, artists etc.), or if they just need to reevaluate their priorities, something needs to change in the industry. Otherwise you'll end up buying a console just for 2 games because nothing else interesting ends up releasing that generation. COVID obviously didn't help, making already long dev times even longer.

Maybe, just maybe, games don't need to perfectly chisel out and simulate the pores on a characters buttcheek.

We saw basically f*ck all of the story. Like 2 minutes in the nightclub that are actually related to story missions, but we've seen nothing else.

 

I think they can keep it alive if you have massive backing, like Rockstar does from Take-2 and the golden goose that is GTA:O. However, as an industry whole I have to agree. I hate the indie vs AAA mindset but there does not seem to be a happy medium with AAA games right now. Its feels as though its either yearly shlock or games that take a decade to come out.

[CM1]

8 hours ago, Paper Mario said:

I'm not sure, but as games keep getting more advanced, and Rockstar always wanting to make the best possible game they can, the time it takes to develop these games might actually increase from 6-7 years to even more down the line. Maybe not 15-20 years though, lol.. that's ridiculous..

They really just need to buckle down. To better express my point, that window I gave refers to an exclusive all-hands-on-deck time window for these games without including any internal overlap with other projects.

 

 

 

 

It doesn't include pre-development possibilities via small teams doing concept work that overlaps with other projects.

 

 

 

Let's say, a small team is working on an RDR 2 successor or another title right now during the last 1-2 years of GTA VI development.

 

 

 

Then once VI goes gold anywhere between September 2024 - February 2025 and releases Oct 1, 2024 - March 25, 2025, resources fully shift (All Hands On Deck) to that RDR/other title.

 

 

It then takes an additional 8 years on top of those 1-2 initial years, because the increasing lead time over the previous AHOD gap of 6-7 years was justified (by cynical executives and apologists).

 

 

When that game releases, it would've equaled a combined 7+2 = 9 years total. 5-6 years is understood, but 9 years? Actors unfortunately can die or become incapacitated during that long period.

 

No comp. insurance policy can protect against it, if they end up being recasted during production and thus having to redo assets.

 

I don't want them to compromise their quality, but in all industries, sometimes you really need to buckle down at a point or become more efficient when things are spiraling out of control.

 

 

The way they are going, it could become 2033 for RDR 3, 2042 for GTA VII (7), 2052 for RDR 4, and 2063 for VIII (8).

 

 

And why? Increasing the All-Hands-On-Deck lead time windows incrementally, with no attempt to reduce it.

 

 

It would be even worse, if you include other titles in the middle of GTA & RDR series, ie Bully, Agent, or etc (new ideas).

 

 

For now, I feel that they need to commit somehow into maintaining fiscal year 2025 for VI, no matter when it gets revealed.

 

 

If it misses the FY 2025 window, not a good thing for future products, due to domino effect.

 

 

If a smaller non-RDR title is up next (after VI), do their best to release it by Fiscal year 2029.

 

 

Gives them 4 years of AHOD time to have it ready by late 2028-early 2029. Not to mention overlapping work of 1-2 years in initial stages = 5-6 years of total investment.

 

 

If RDR 3 is next up instead, keep it limited to Fiscal Year 2030 (2029-30) deadline or early in FY 2031 (mid-2030).

 

 

That's comfortably 5 - 5.5 years AHOD time after VI is done, maybe even with internal overlap of 6-7 years total investment between 2023ish to 2029-30. (Gap should be even lower)

 

 

If there are possibly two games before GTA VII (7), one of which is RDR 3 and a new "lesser title" before RDR, limit that smaller title to a FY 2029 deadline, RDR 3 to FY 2033-34 deadline, and GTA VII FY 2038-39.

 

 

And that's best case scenario to be honest. Taking 8+ years following each game release, is not going achieve that.

 

 

To successfully meet such a reduced lead time gap, would require major changes for them internally. Crunch sucks, but taking 3/4s to a full decade per game isn't viable long term.

 

 

In example, RDR 2 was first informally discussed by TPTB circa summer 2010, with them setting a go-date of formal commencement in January 2011. This move followed GTA V mocap start in 2010 by some 3-4ish months.

 

 

Gives me the impression, priority was getting GTA V full production off the ground in 2010, before moving onto RDR2 project in early 2011.

 

 

GTA V missed its original release FY2013 window, yet production reluctantly began on RDR 2 in the midst of GTA V production and took roughly 2,200 days (6 years) between late 2012 and September 2018 to complete.

 

 

Rockstar definitely spent more than 7.5 years on RDR 2 from formal start in 2011 to finish in 2018, part of it overlapping with resources on GTA V development.

 

 

Along the way RDR2 saw hidden delays, not including those 2 after Oct 2016 reveal.

 

 

GTA VI, if including possible overlaps with RDR 2 work in the mid-late 2010s, might end up at 9-11 years total invested by the time they go gold in Sep 2024 - Feb 2025.

 

 

(Release shouldn't be later than 25 Mar 2025, but no earlier than 1 Oct 2024)

 

 

sh*t happens, but they have to cap this spiraling pattern and reduce lead times if possible following VI completion.

 

 

If the gaps remain ever increasing, what's to stop them from getting the worst estimates I mentioned? Very little.

 

 

45 years worth of ideas becomes very literal in the worst way, considering that was mentioned in 2013 and by 2058, it would mean only 2 GTA titles after V, if keeping the same pattern of excess time on RDR and other titles down the road. Does that mean 60-70 years worth of ideas then?

 

 

We all expect these recent huge gaps were a result of massive unforeseen stumbles, which Rockstar need to better figure out and try to avoid going forward into the future.

 

 

I really hope and trust they've learned their lesson with RDR 2 and GTA VI issues. There's a more efficient way to execute new titles, before it gets too out of control in 10-20 years time.

 

 

It should be an anomaly to be releasing one game every blue moon, not the norm from being inefficient.

Edited October 25, 2023 by CM1

[CM1]

6 hours ago, Collibosher said:

I expect the AI to compensate this a lot, as we all know the AI can not only do coding, it can produce art/design and even voice lines and narratives. The mortal game developers are going to be able to relieve themselves from the many mundane time consuming tasks and concentrate more on new ideas and innovations.

 

Perfectly stated. I really hope this is the approach taken going forward and they can cut down some of this excess time by at least 25-40% from using some AI.

 

Otherwise, eventually the right competitor will study your strengths and come out with a product that's 95% just as good, in half or 2/3rds the time it takes you to do so.

 

Then second go around, easily surpass you in execution, if they're able to regroup and become better at what they do, while being more efficient with time.

 

I know Rockstar are struggling in reality with getting it finished, but if you see yourself struggling, carefully reevaluate what's not going well and fix it.

 

Don't get too comfortable (after VI struggles) and just find new ways to make excuses & take longer, especially if there's a roster of projects you might want to tackle in the future.

 

If it was a matter of ideas at Rockstar being a dry well, cynically ending with the relying on profitability of VI (Online), then I understand them not doing anything else going forward.

Edited October 25, 2023 by CM1

[Len Lfc]

6 minutes ago, CM1 said:

With all due respect, but what's with the weird post formatting? Really hard to read/follow.

[Ser_Salty]

22 minutes ago, CM1 said:

They really just need to buckle down. To better express my point, that window I gave refers to an exclusive all-hands-on-deck time window for these games without including any internal overlap with other projects.

 

 

 

 

It doesn't include pre-development possibilities via small teams doing concept work that overlaps with other projects.

 

 

 

Let's say, a small team is working on an RDR 2 successor or another title right now during the last 1-2 years of GTA VI development.

 

 

 

Then once VI goes gold anywhere between September 2024 - February 2025 and releases Oct 1, 2024 - March 25, 2025, resources fully shift (All Hands On Deck) to that RDR/other title.

 

 

It then takes an additional 8 years on top of those 1-2 initial years, because the increasing lead time over the previous AHOD gap of 6-7 years was justified.

 

 

When that game releases, it would've equaled a combined 7+2 = 9 years total. 5-6 years is understood, but 9 years? Actors can die or become incapacitated during that long period. No insurance policy can protect against it, if they end up being recast during production.

 

I don't want them to compromise their quality, but in all industries, sometimes you really need to buckle down or become more efficient when things are spiraling out of control.

 

 

The way they are going, it could become 2033 for RDR 3, 2042 for GTA VII (7), 2052 for RDR 4, and 2063 for VIII (8).

 

 

And why? Increasing the All-Hands-On-Deck lead time windows incrementally.

 

 

It would be even worse, if you include other titles in the middle of GTA & RDR series, ie Bully, Agent, or etc (new stuff).

 

 

For now, I feel that they need to commit somehow into maintaining fiscal year 2025 for VI, no matter when it gets revealed. If it misses the FY 2025 window, not a good thing.

 

 

If a smaller non-RDR title is up next (after VI), do their best to release it by Fiscal year 2029. Gives them 4 years of AHOD time to have it ready by late 2028-early 2029. Not to mention overlapping work of 1-2 years in initial stages = 5-6 years of total investment.

 

 

If RDR 3 is next up instead, keep it limited to Fiscal Year 2030 (2029-30) deadline or early in FY 2031 (mid-2030).

 

 

That's comfortably 5 - 5.5 years AHOD time after VI is done, maybe even with internal overlap of 6-7 years total investment between 2023ish to 2029-30. (Gap should be even lower)

 

 

If there are possibly two games before GTA VII (7), one of which is RDR 3 and a new "lesser title" before RDR, limit that smaller title to a FY 2029 deadline, RDR 3 to FY 2033-34 deadline, and GTA VII FY 2038-39.

 

 

And that's best case scenario to be honest. Taking 8+ years following each game release, is not going achieve that.

 

 

To successfully meet such a reduced lead time gap, would require major changes for internally. Crunch sucks, but taking 3/4s to a full decade per game isn't viable long term.

 

 

RDR 2 was first informally discussed by TPTB circa summer 2010, with them setting a go-date of formal commencement in January 2011. This move followed GTA V mocap start in 2010 by some 3-4ish months.

 

 

Gives me the impression, priority was getting GTA V full production off the ground in 2010, before moving onto RDR2 project in early 2011.

 

 

GTA V missed its original release FY2013 window, yet production reluctantly began on RDR 2 in the midst of GTA V production and took roughly 2,200 days (6 years) between late 2012 and September 2018 to complete.

 

 

Rockstar spent more than 7.5 years on RDR 2 from formal start in 2011 to finish in 2018, part of it overlapping with resources on GTA V development. Along the way RDR2 saw hidden delays, not including those 2 after Oct 2016 reveal.

 

 

GTA VI, if including possible overlaps with RDR 2 work in the mid-late 2010s, might end up at 9-11 years total invested by the time they go gold in Sep 2024 - Feb 2025.

 

 

(Release shouldn't be later than 25 Mar 2025, but no earlier than 1 Oct 2024)

 

 

sh*t happens, but they have to cap this spiraling pattern and reduce lead times if possible following VI completion.

 

 

If the gaps remain ever increasing, what's to stop them from getting the worst estimates I mentioned? Very little.

 

 

45 years worth of ideas becomes very literal in the worst way, considering that was mentioned in 2013 and by 2058, it would mean only 2 GTA titles after V, if keeping the same pattern of excess time on RDR and other titles down the road. Does that mean 60-70 years worth of ideas then?

 

 

We all expect these recent huge gaps were a result of huge unforeseen stumbles, which Rockstar need to better figure out and try to avoid going forward into the future.

 

 

I really hope and trust they've learned their lesson with RDR 2 and GTA VI issues. There's a more efficient way to execute new titles, before it gets too out of control in 10-20 years time.

 

 

It should be an anomaly, not the norm from being inefficient.

Please stop putting every sentence as its own paragraph.

[CM1]

6 hours ago, wise_man said:

Safe to think that gaming development technologies, like AI as @Collibosher said, will also advance in the future. Also current devs rely on knowledges from already existing technology, it will take time to learn and adapt with newer techs.

 

What's taking 8-10 years right now for a single game might only take 4-6 years in the future. It's completely possible that after GTA VI, the gap would actually be decreased.

Well stated.

 

If that's the way to approach this better, they need to figure it out.

 

Rockstar cannot get too comfortable, unless it's a matter of cynically coasting off of VI success and not doing anything else.

 

As a business, RG definitely can do that, but also lose any form of respect among their core demographic & peers and stifle creativity amongst their staff, especially senior personnel.

 

The only way I can see them being able to do the above on a more positive note, is gradually adding regions of USA using the same engine and adding different characters.

 

It keeps everything fresh and reduces the urgency for a new GTA (VII), but the existing game engine will get dated eventually and need a successor.

 

Knowing them, I'm not yet fully convinced they would even be committed to adding other regions like Carcer City, San Fierro, or Las Venturas over time, as a placeholder within VI.

 

We've been stuck in Los Santos for 10 years, likely 11-12ish years in the end by 2024-25.

 

Adding onto that for Vice City and making it a solid dozen or so years, would piss everyone off after 8-10 years.

38 minutes ago, Len Lfc said:

With all due respect, but what's with the weird post formatting? Really hard to read/follow.

 

18 minutes ago, Ser_Salty said:

Please stop putting every sentence as its own paragraph.

It's harder to read if it's all bunched up together.

Spacing it out, breaks it up a little and I figured is easier to parse through, versus 4-5 sentences per paragraph.

Edited October 25, 2023 by CM1

[Ser_Salty]

5 minutes ago, CM1 said:

It's harder to read if it's all bunched up together.

Spacing it out, breaks it up a little and I figured is easier to parse through, versus 4-5 sentences per paragraph.

It's the opposite, it's annoying as sh*t to read it like you format it.

[CM1]

1 hour ago, Ser_Salty said:

It's the opposite, it's annoying as sh*t to read it like you format it.

So bunching it up is better? Makes no difference anyway at this point, as 90% of my points I have made and anything else I'm expressing, is going to be shorter form.

 

5 hours ago, Patrizio said:

Well said. Good point bringing up IV's announcement and trailer cycle too.

 

Up until that point, other than maybe some leaks for GTA 3 circa December 2000, RG used to reveal their major GTA games in Q1 of the same calendar year and then schedule them for Oct release. Not even a whole year ahead.

 

• After leaks in December 2000 & January 2001, GTA III is formally revealed on 19 Feb 2001.

 

• Set for 3 Oct 2001 Release

 

• Delayed to 22 Oct 2001 last minute after 9/11.

 

• GTA IV is formally revealed 29 Mar 2007

 

• Set for 16 Oct 2007 release.

• Delayed twice, releases 29 Apr 2008.

 

For this one, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the lesson they've learned from GTA III and decided to reveal it in Q1 2024, in knowing it's planned for Oct 2024.

 

With GTA III it wasn't their fault, but IV and huge technological leap, was too ambitious for that small window they initially gave themselves of just 35 months from November 2004 to September 2007.

 

Michael Hollick recorded for GTA IV, a mere 15 months between late 2006 and early 2008, so that means the first trailer was shown like 4-5 months after he began mocap+rec sessions circa Nov 2006. I think Young Malay spent longer than that on GTA SA in 2003-04.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Fetooh said:

At this rate , it should be announced in early 2024 , release date will not be earlier than late 2025

 

I really have no idea why you think they're going to reveal it practically 2 years before it releases, as that's not a deliberate practice they go by.

 

That only happened with the other two, because they revealed them before being 99.9% confident with meeting their deadline. I doubt they want to get ahead of themselves again.

 

4 hours ago, ClimateLockdowns said:

Do you think teapotuberhacker leak has something to do with this delay of the annoucement ? maybe they have had to change the story due to main characters being leaked they can't change the setting now it's 110% Vice City but the story maybe it if wasn't 100% finished 

 

Feeling insecure about the leaks, I can imagine them delaying not so much the game itself, but the first trailer, to widen the gap in quality and showcase a finished product. But a story change? Highly doubt it, as the amount of time involved would easily increase by a factor of 50 to 100%.

 

A remaining two years easily becomes 3-4 years or worse. They're not gonna refer to FY2025 projections, the way Strauss Zelnick recently did by that measure, if they expect nothing to change during the window of 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025.

 

3 hours ago, Ser_Salty said:

One thing I've been saying is that the gaming industry as a whole needs to figure out a way to cut down development times. You can't keep a franchise alive with one game per decade, if we're lucky. 11-12 years between GTA V and VI, probably 15 years between TES V and VI... it's just not sustainable long term. Wether AI can be used to cutdown workload (without cutting out actual devs, actors, artists etc.), or if they just need to reevaluate their priorities, something needs to change in the industry. Otherwise you'll end up buying a console just for 2 games because nothing else interesting ends up releasing that generation. COVID obviously didn't help, making already long dev times even longer.

Maybe, just maybe, games don't need to perfectly chisel out and simulate the pores on a characters buttcheek.

We saw basically f*ck all of the story. Like 2 minutes in the nightclub that are actually related to story missions, but we've seen nothing else.

 

Perfectly stated. We can give them leeway and understanding, regarding the fact that so much has happened to them between 2013 and present, both internally and externally. However, they can't make that their new template to follow going forward. I can easily be wrong about this, but I am very certain about the possibility GTA 6 was in early development before RDR 2 came out or even finished its own development (Sep 2018).

 

Just because RDR 2 took as long as it did (7.5 years) to create, doesn't mean that RG should try to keep topping that number over time, in terms of sheer duration with each new title. As you said, it's not viable long term.

 

Yet, when some of us complain on these boards about this, you see apologists crawl out of the woodworks to blindly reference past extended timelines as a justification for this and us "needing to be patient' or whatever BS. We all understand they've been under a lot of pressure, but they should not make it a habit after this development hell they're in ends.

 

Basically release VI in FY2025, as it's been 11 years since the last one and 6 fiscal years since their last release. Move onto the next project and get it out by 2028-30. 2-3 games per decade should be their new goal. Two major titles, one minor title with lesser time involved. That's only my two cents, not what they have to do, being that I don't own/oversee RG nor Take Two their publisher.

 

3 hours ago, JohnCGaming said:

 

I think they can keep it alive if you have massive backing, like Rockstar does from Take-2 and the golden goose that is GTA:O. However, as an industry whole I have to agree. I hate the indie vs AAA mindset but there does not seem to be a happy medium with AAA games right now. Its feels as though its either yearly shlock or games that take a decade to come out.

I'm hoping people are realizing what you're saying here and take great note of the fact, one extreme shouldn't be matched by another. Having shoddy titles that take 1 year to make, no one is demanding. Taking 8-10 years per release down the road? No thanks.

 

Two to three new games from RG per decade should be what they attempt to do at least. At worst, make that 12 years when it's 3 instead of just 2 games. Two big ones in next gen GTA & RDR that overlap resources with active updates and maybe a smaller title in between them that takes 3/5ths the time.

 

From Sep 2013 to (likely) FY2025 they'll only put out 3 games, thanks to massive development hell on 2 of them. Asking RG to shorten it to 2 big sequels every 10 years, isn't too much to ask.

Edited October 25, 2023 by CM1

[Patrizio]

@CM1 well said and well wrote. Will reply to this properly later .

[CommanderBlack]

I just drop my 11.1.2023 reveal date Prediction here

Edited October 26, 2023 by CommanderBlack
Wrote 2024 instead 2023

[Patrizio]

8 minutes ago, CommanderBlack said:

I just drop my 11.1.2024 reveal date Prediction here

Yeah I have a funny feeling about November too. Fingers crossed ey?

[Fetooh]

2 hours ago, CM1 said:

I really have no idea why you think they're going to reveal it practically 2 years before it releases, as that's not a deliberate practice they go by.

Because this is what rockstar was doing with recent releases , rockstar of early 2000s isn't like modern rockstar so I wouldn't really depends on that especially with the technical,stuff,industry changes...., they will probably announce it to be released in late 2024 and delay it again.

[neoslice]

10 hours ago, CommanderBlack said:

I just drop my 11.1.2024 reveal date Prediction here

January seems like an odd month to reveal things even if it's the beginning of a new year

 

I think November definitely is a huge possibility as it was with V on the 2nd but reveal was a week earlier in October already. Dare they to repeat this time again? Maybe even December eh? But after that it's probably February (because they first acknowledged it) or March as next months

Edited October 26, 2023 by neoslice

[Krutov]

 

Hello everyone, today I want to prove to you with simple numbers and examples that Rockstar can quite safely stretch the future announcement until April 2024

 

Firstly, Rockstar does not necessarily announce GTA 6 this October. Many cite the example of the traditional Rockstar scheme to make important announcements in October before the November quarterly report, but this has not always been the case. The first GTA 4 trailer was released in general in the spring of 2007

 

Secondly, in fact, the 25th fiscal year, in which Take-Two /Zelnik expect record revenues, will begin ONLY FIVE months later — on April 1, 2024.

 

Thirdly, until April 1, 2024 (the start of the 25th fiscal year), as MANY as TWO financial quarterly reports will be released: the first is expected very soon, on November 8, and the second is expected in early February 2024. If we don't get anything on the game by the November report, then investors won't ask questions, since fiscal year 25 hasn't even started yet. Rockstar technically still have time to announce the game even in February (two years after the announcement of the development) before the second quarterly report

 

Now a little logical thinking: the 2025 fiscal year begins on April 1, 2024 and ends on March 31, 2025. Even if Rockstar announce GTA 6 only in February-March 2024, they still have time to release it in the fall of 2024 or spring of 2025. Rockstar this time intend to make a shorter marketing window between the announcement and the release of the game after the unsuccessful transfers of GTA 5 and RDR 2. That is why, as part of the already begun fiscal year 25, they can afford to stretch the announcement until the spring of 2024!

 

Summing up, I want to assure you that they can do this at any time — they have as much as 5 months left until the beginning of the 2025 fiscal year. Investors will start asking serious questions only if they still have nothing on the game at the next February quarterly report