[Poll] GTA VI Announcement & Release Predictions

[Fetooh]

4 hours ago, neoslice said:

January seems like an odd month to reveal things even if it's the beginning of a new year

 

I think November definitely is a huge possibility as it was with V on the 2nd but reveal was a week earlier in October already. Dare they to repeat this time again? Maybe even December eh? But after that it's probably February (because they first acknowledged it) or March as next months

Agree , there is a huge possibility it will be in these next two months , February to April is a possibility too

[Vespucchix]

The question is, what would be the best time for Rockstar to announce GTA VI? Can they afford to announce it after the November 8 call? My money's on a 2024 announcement. If they announce GTA VI during this period (October/November), it seems too predictable to me.

[SoldierBoy]

1 minute ago, Vespucchix said:

The question is, what would be the best time for Rockstar to announce GTA VI? Can they afford to announce it after the November 8 call? My money's on a 2024 announcement. If they announce GTA VI during this period (October/November), it seems too predictable to me.

Yes, fall 2024 is more likely

[CommanderBlack]

5 hours ago, neoslice said:

January seems like an odd month to reveal things even if it's the beginning of a new year

 

I think November definitely is a huge possibility as it was with V on the 2nd but reveal was a week earlier in October already. Dare they to repeat this time again? Maybe even December eh? But after that it's probably February (because they first acknowledged it) or March as next months

I bad, i meant november, the 1st, 2023 i was probably sleepy and skiped to next year

[Patrizio]

28 minutes ago, SoldierBoy said:

Yes, fall 2024 is more likely

Please no later than Spring 24. In fact no longer than March.

[neoslice]

2 hours ago, CommanderBlack said:

I bad, i meant november, the 1st, 2023 i was probably sleepy and skiped to next year

If you're in Germany why even use MDY date format (especially if using numbers only), it's confusing

[CommanderBlack]

28 minutes ago, neoslice said:

If you're in Germany why even use MDY date format (especially if using numbers only), it's confusing

My bad, i thought it was only confusing since i wrote 2024 instead of 2023, i will next time write the dates different or put (MDY) behind the date. 

[CM1]

21 hours ago, Patrizio said:

@CM1 well said and well wrote. Will reply to this properly later .

Totally understand LOL, it's a probably a lot to parse through. 

 

20 hours ago, Fetooh said:

Because this is what rockstar was doing with recent releases , rockstar of early 2000s isn't like modern rockstar so I wouldn't really depends on that especially with the technical,stuff,industry changes...., they will probably announce it to be released in late 2024 and delay it again.

That's not what you said. You reasonably expressed, you expect an "announcement" in early 2024, then randomly suggested a late 2025 release. Unless it was just a typo, that's the my issue, because they're not going to show a product earmarked for 21-23 months away. It's generally less than a year out to launch, they go public.

 

If it gets delayed over the next 18 months, then sure it will be as late as that timeframe.

 

I'm thinking they might even be going out of their way to avoid anything close to past milestone dates. In example, avoiding the month of October, November, September (GTA V).

 

Unless a new projection is given, showing a massive decrease for FY2025 and shifting the high increase to FY2026, I don't see the point of mentioning late 2025 by anyone in here. 

 

 

6 hours ago, Krutov said:

 

Hello everyone, today I want to prove to you with simple numbers and examples that Rockstar can quite safely stretch the future announcement until April 2024

 

Firstly, Rockstar does not necessarily announce GTA 6 this October. Many cite the example of the traditional Rockstar scheme to make important announcements in October before the November quarterly report, but this has not always been the case. The first GTA 4 trailer was released in general in the spring of 2007

 

Secondly, in fact, the 25th fiscal year, in which Take-Two /Zelnik expect record revenues, will begin ONLY FIVE months later — on April 1, 2024.

 

Thirdly, until April 1, 2024 (the start of the 25th fiscal year), as MANY as TWO financial quarterly reports will be released: the first is expected very soon, on November 8, and the second is expected in early February 2024. If we don't get anything on the game by the November report, then investors won't ask questions, since fiscal year 25 hasn't even started yet. Rockstar technically still have time to announce the game even in February (two years after the announcement of the development) before the second quarterly report

 

Now a little logical thinking: the 2025 fiscal year begins on April 1, 2024 and ends on March 31, 2025. Even if Rockstar announce GTA 6 only in February-March 2024, they still have time to release it in the fall of 2024 or spring of 2025. Rockstar this time intend to make a shorter marketing window between the announcement and the release of the game after the unsuccessful transfers of GTA 5 and RDR 2. That is why, as part of the already begun fiscal year 25, they can afford to stretch the announcement until the spring of 2024!

 

Summing up, I want to assure you that they can do this at any time — they have as much as 5 months left until the beginning of the 2025 fiscal year. Investors will start asking serious questions only if they still have nothing on the game at the next February quarterly report

Excellently stated. I would even think that they're maybe trying to be more uncharacteristic in terms of reveal window? At the moment (only), one thing is for certain, that the game is expected to be released by 31 March 2025.

 

I could easily say Tuesday March 25th, but for all I know they might do what they did in 2001 and release it on a Wednesday instead. Why not even a Monday?

 

Rockstar as an organization is very detail oriented like I am as an individual, unfortunately to a fault. That can have consequences in terms of timeliness and conciseness. Luckily in the entertainment medium, there's great benefit to being detail oriented, as seen by their record breaking financial performance.

 

It does disappoint me however, that the longer they stretch this out, the harder it gets to keep in game assets up to date, if they were produced/recorded years ago and can't be replaced/revised.

 

I found the poolside LifeInvader reference in the leaks to Jay Norris, possibly dated.

 

Jay Norris would've died like 11-12 years prior to the likely final setting, yet the line itself was easily recorded 2-3+ years from today. You can easily spoof stuff into RDR games from the 19-20th centuries and take a million years to do it (since it's culturally in the past).

 

However with GTA and echoing the present day, very very tricky stuff. Especially if your project takes longer and longer to complete and today's recording session becomes 3-4 years ago at release.

 

Any additional delays also affect any future games from RG, by domino effect. The game after being "downscaled", better be worth it and the rumor to gradually expand it over time into different regions, better be true if it's taken all this time to get done. We got promised a DLC for GTA V roughly 10 years ago, ended up with GTAO updates instead in griefer hell.

 

At this point, we'll see it when we see it (trailer), but let's just hope Fiscal Year 2025 release holds firm 100% and not a single day over. I can't honestly with the silly "Late 2025", 2026 suggestions. Pessimism doesn't always equal realism. You cannot predict delays, when they haven't happened yet and may not even transpire.

Edited October 26 by CM1

[Len Lfc]

f*ck it

 

Given that we learned about their Fiscal 2025's $8B in net bookings in May 2023 with Take-Two's Q4 Earnings report. It stands to reason that we may just have to wait until next may, for an update.

* FY24-26 release estimates provided as of May 17, 2023. Full updated FY25/26 pipeline details to be given with Q4 FY2024 results.

 

Things change, with time. But the closer we get, the narrower the window gets. So if they intend to update the pipeline details (duh, of course they will) we could well see an announcement around that time.

Perhaps April 30th - May 7th 2024 is a good window. Maybe even earlier in March?

 

Maybe they'll announce in January for an October 2024 launch? At this point, we've waited so long, it's starting to just get overwhelmingly frustrating and all fun in speculating is being dried up.

[GRANDHEIST]

4th of February..

 

2 year anniversary  of their first acknowledgement of the next GTA

 

Edit: right on the perfect day too: Sunday

Edited October 27 by GRANDHEIST

[Fetooh]

20 hours ago, CM1 said:

 

That's not what you said. You reasonably expressed, you expect an "announcement" in early 2024, then randomly suggested a late 2025 release. Unless it was just a typo, that's the my issue, because they're not going to show a product earmarked for 21-23 months away. It's generally less than a year out to launch, they go public.

 

 

My expectations are based on the recent two releases , RDR 2 and GTA V had 21-24 months gap and I'm not basing in it with 20 years old rockstar games , announcing it this November is still a possibility and to be released in late 2024 and then delay it again.

[Tez2]

On 10/27/2023 at 1:04 PM, Len Lfc said:

Perhaps April 30th - May 7th 2024 is a good window. Maybe even earlier in March?

I can see an announcement prior to that.

[Xtra510]

Feb 2nd-Feb16th 2024 or even later in fact. The reason why gta 6 hasn’t been announced is because shark card sales will plummet and they need some more SQUEEZE from that gta online cash cow. 

[Nawaf]

39 minutes ago, Tez2 said:

I can see an announcement prior to that.

Has the plan changed, or the deadline still 2024?

[Len Lfc]

3 hours ago, Tez2 said:

I can see an announcement prior to that.

Me, too. But many of us all saw an announcement this October. Most of the time we're wrong.

[Andrew23]

I see announcement at 24 and release at 25. Actually I’m sure of it. 

[Dead by light]

2024 fall

[Crowhazard]

Announcement: either 25 January or 2 February 2024

Release: either 22 or 25 October 2024

[Vensis]

If rockstar has ocd;

Announcement

23 november 23

release

24 october 24

 

My bet: within this decade

Edited November 1 by Vensis

[CM1]

On 10/27/2023 at 7:36 AM, Fetooh said:

 

My expectations are based on the recent two releases , RDR 2 and GTA V had 21-24 months gap and I'm not basing in it with 20 years old rockstar games , announcing it this November is still a possibility and to be released in late 2024 and then delay it again.

You cannot predict delays nor can you go off of two games, notably delayed twice, as a standard measure. I'm not strictly referring to 20 year old games either.

 

RDR 2 was set for October 2017, after it was revealed 12 months ahead of that. Rockstar delayed it in May 2017 to spring 2018 after Dan Houser ordered some last minute changes. Then as that release drew closer toward early 2018, they pushed it back to 26 October 2018 in January 2018.

 

GTA V although not given a release date 12 years ago today, was due for Oct/November 2012 release. Roughly 12 months after its reveal. It got delayed sometime in 2012 to spring 2013, which is when a release schedule became more publicized in October 2012. In January 2013, that changed again to 17 September 2013. Two delays, each being roughly 6 months = 1 year for both games.

 

For GTA V, I'd figure it was insufficient development time that caused the first semi-public delay. Second & final delay, probably teething issues. RDR 2 was Houser's flippancy and second one probably related to teething issues.

 

 

Rockstar don't know right now if they're going to be in that position again and are probably doing their damnedest to be absolutely sure they're ready this time, before any formal announcement.

 

GTA IV is not even a 20 year old game and had a planned release date of October 16, 2007, being first revealed just 6.5 months ahead on 29 March 2007. (I don't count E3 2006 logo, because no trailer & Niko wasn't even being mo-caped then.)

 

IV got delayed twice, but only to the tune of 6.5 months. There's nothing stopping Rockstar from echoing 2000s release schedules with 6-9 months gaps between first showcase and retail introduction.

 

Nor are they above going with the more recent 2010s practice of 12 month gap, if they can successfully determine when the game is 90-95% done and in expecting the remaining 5-10% to take under a year to finish, do a reveal 1 year early with a solid guarantee of no big delays.

 

A minor delay of 3-6 weeks is acceptable post-reveal, but 6-12 months starts repeating patterns with GTAV and RDR2 that I don't think reflects well on them. We'll see how they manage TBH.

[Tez2]

On 10/31/2023 at 2:46 PM, Nawaf said:

or the deadline still 2024?

That wasn't really a deadline. More of an estimated release window.

 

Several devs expect the release window in 2025. A spring release is what's expected. But Rockstar aimed for a Spring release for both GTAV & RDR2 in the past that was eventually delayed to a Fall release.

 

I predict an announcement coinciding with the celebration of Rockstar's anniversary somewhere between late Nov and early Dec. And if not that, then a Feb announcement.

 

I expect GTAO Heist Month to be more V themed. And for Rockstar to offer us the rest of GTAV anniversary clothing during this month. Focusing on V and concluding with Rockstar's anniversary and a chance of talking about what's next.

Edited November 4 by Tez2

[Matushka]

1 hour ago, Tez2 said:

chance of talking about what's next.

Rockstar proudly presents GTA the trilogy, the defect- *cough cough cough* the difinitive edition!

[-Sample-]

1 hour ago, Tez2 said:

That wasn't really a deadline. More of an estimated release window.

 

Several devs expect the release window in 2025. A spring release is what's expected. But Rockstar aimed for a Spring release for both GTAV & RDR2 in the past that was eventually delayed to a Fall release.

 

I predict an announcement coinciding with the celebration of Rockstar's anniversary somewhere between late Nov and early Dec. And if not that, then a Feb announcement.

 

I expect GTAO Heist Month to be more V themed. And for Rockstar to offer us the rest of GTAV anniversary clothing during this month. Focusing on V and concluding with Rockstar's anniversary and a chance of talking about what's next.

Rockstar says relax.

[EarthDiamond459]

2 hours ago, Tez2 said:

Ez nem igazán volt határidő. Inkább egy becsült megjelenési időszak.

 

Számos fejlesztő 2025-ben várja a megjelenési időszakot. Tavaszi megjelenés várható.  De a Rockstar a múltban a GTAV és az RDR2 tavaszi kiadását tűzte ki célul, ami végül elhalasztották az őszi megjelenést.

 

Egy bejelentést jósolok, amely egybeesik a Rockstar évfordulójának megünneplésével, valahol november vége és december eleje között. És ha nem az, akkor egy februári bejelentés.

 

Arra számítok, hogy a GTAO Heist Month inkább V témájú lesz. És hogy a Rockstar felajánlja nekünk a GTAV évfordulós ruházatának többi részét ebben a hónapban. Összpontosítsunk az V-re, és a Rockstar évfordulójával zárjuk, és beszéljünk a következőről.

I think In January we will get some information about the next generation Grand Theft Auto at the earliest! 07.01.2024-26.01.2024!... 

 

 

 

 

 

[OJsAlibi]

8 hours ago, Tez2 said:

I predict an announcement coinciding with the celebration of Rockstar's anniversary somewhere between late Nov and early Dec. And if not that, then a Feb announcement.

[Farzan Irani]

10 hours ago, Tez2 said:

That wasn't really a deadline. More of an estimated release window.

 

Several devs expect the release window in 2025. A spring release is what's expected. But Rockstar aimed for a Spring release for both GTAV & RDR2 in the past that was eventually delayed to a Fall release.

 

I predict an announcement coinciding with the celebration of Rockstar's anniversary somewhere between late Nov and early Dec. And if not that, then a Feb announcement.

 

I expect GTAO Heist Month to be more V themed. And for Rockstar to offer us the rest of GTAV anniversary clothing during this month. Focusing on V and concluding with Rockstar's anniversary and a chance of talking about what's next.

I Hope this is true.

[uzun]

Yeah, keep say the dates randomly.

It will be one of them eventually.

Edited November 5 by uzun

[Shahar654]

On 11/4/2023 at 7:46 AM, Tez2 said:

That wasn't really a deadline. More of an estimated release window.

 

Several devs expect the release window in 2025. A spring release is what's expected. But Rockstar aimed for a Spring release for both GTAV & RDR2 in the past that was eventually delayed to a Fall release.

 

I predict an announcement coinciding with the celebration of Rockstar's anniversary somewhere between late Nov and early Dec. And if not that, then a Feb announcement.

 

I expect GTAO Heist Month to be more V themed. And for Rockstar to offer us the rest of GTAV anniversary clothing during this month. Focusing on V and concluding with Rockstar's anniversary and a chance of talking about what's next.

Is this something you datamined or just educated guesses?

[Dourvas]

On 11/4/2023 at 7:46 AM, Tez2 said:

That wasn't really a deadline. More of an estimated release window.

 

Several devs expect the release window in 2025. A spring release is what's expected. But Rockstar aimed for a Spring release for both GTAV & RDR2 in the past that was eventually delayed to a Fall release.

 

I predict an announcement coinciding with the celebration of Rockstar's anniversary somewhere between late Nov and early Dec. And if not that, then a Feb announcement.

 

I expect GTAO Heist Month to be more V themed. And for Rockstar to offer us the rest of GTAV anniversary clothing during this month. Focusing on V and concluding with Rockstar's anniversary and a chance of talking about what's next.

Doesn't sound unreasonable, but why would Stauss predict 8 Billion in FY25 if they drop it late 2025? Or even early 25, not enough time to reach that number.

[Ziegbert]

41 minutes ago, Dourvas said:

Doesn't sound unreasonable, but why would Stauss predict 8 Billion in FY25 if they drop it late 2025? Or even early 25, not enough time to reach that number.

We will see in this week's investor call whether strauss still expects these 8 Billion. If so, we can carefully expect that they still aim for fall 2024, if not then an early 2025 release is more likely