UK Politics & Current Affairs Discussion & DIY Home Improvement Thread

[Svip]

May was pretty neutral in the whole referendum campaign, right? So there is no true pro-EU candidate running for the leadership then? How popular is Gove within the Conservative party? I get the impression that May is more popular within the party than Gove is, which is likely to help her, even though neither of them has much to stand on.

 

Particularly her neutral position is what some will see as a uniting leader. Perhaps that will benefit her chances? Surely she will position herself as something else than purely anti-Boris.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

All 5 of the nominees are Neutral to Leave campaigners....

 

This is my point about Tim Farron and the Lib Dems. I expect several defections in the coming weeks as Pro-EU Tories become more and more disillusioned by the 5 put up.

 

It's a bad list to read, but the 5 are not going to get any form of free ride, both from the Tory Party itself and, ultimately, the EU.

 

The Frog Faced Wanker the whole of UKIP might have severe egg on their faces come Christmas 2020.... The UK still in the EU and the EU Council laughing right at them.

[Svip]

Makes you think. By the time the next European parliament elections comes around (in 2019), the UK may still be electing MEPs.

[Argonaut]

I was surprised at Boris going, but what people should keep in mind is that in the eyes of people / media he'd be damned if he ran for PM and damned if he didn't. Still an interesting field that remains, especially moreso when you look into the records of them all.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Argonaut

[am30]

 

Boris Johnson is the only sensible choice to lead the Tory's. They need someone whose head and heart are firmly on the side of the UK being out of the EU.

Having the public figurehead of a vitriolic, anti-intellectual campaign that very nearly half of the electorate voted against, and who is hated by a large chunk of his own party, doesn't strike me as the most sensible approach if the Conservatives ever actually want to win a General Election again. Though the fact he's already said that Schengen wouldn't be off the table in order to gain membership to the Internal Market is a plus, I suppose.

 

Surely the most logical choice would be a less public, vocal individual on either side; either one of the Eurosceptic remain supporters or one of the (admittedly small) group of leave campaigners who look on the EU more favourably? The party needs a candidate it can actually unite around unless we just want to see reruns of the ongoing implosion of Labour ad infinitum.

 

 

You just described David Cameron.

[Crokey]

So basically, your next prime minister is Theresa May?

 

 

All 5 of the nominees are Neutral to Leave campaigners....

 

May was neutral to remain during the referendum, and has been seen as more pro-EU in the party. Out of the 5 who have put their name into the hat May is probably the best candidate as she's got the international experience. Although to be honest it's the lesser of the evils, as I don't really rate any of them, especially Gove as I couldn't trust him as far as I could fart him, and he would be far too divisive to lead a party especially after this foot-in-mouth episode. So unless Ruth Davidson, who has got the quality to do so, and oversaw the Tories actually getting votes in Scotland; was to suddenly put her name into the mix, May would be the best choice.

 

There has been the call that someone who was Brexit should be in charge, on a "well you got us into the mess you get us out of it" basis, or to put it more neutrally "Well you wanted it, you do it". But I would disagree, I would much rather have someone who is was a remainer or at least leaning that way, in order to try and get the best deal possible, and have a similar framework to what we currently have (with a long term view to sneak us back in through the back door at a later date). That is unless we can avoid all that mess and somehow work out how to vote down the referendum in parliament or declare it void due to the misinformation that was provided during the campaign... I hope.

 

As for Labour, unless they can persuade David Milliband to leave his cushy job and get back into the fold, they're looking decidedly doomed.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

As for Labour, unless they can persuade David Milliband to leave his cushy job and get back into the fold, they're looking decidedly doomed.

I've lost all hope with Labour, unless Corbyn accepts the inevitable and falls on his sword!

 

If they don't get their act together and quickly, UKIP is going to overwhelm their heartland areas. I think anyone with a shred of sense would hope that doesn't happen.

[Abel.]

Dan Jarvis could be a decent option for Labour, assuming he wants to run.

[Svip]

You guys are going to start miss Cameron very soon.

[El Dildo]

You guys are going to start miss Cameron very soon.

hindsight; it's hilarious.

 

 

 

[Svip]

Cameron is resigning. Boris is refusing to take the helm. Nigel Farage is stepping down. Last man to leave, remember to turn off the lights.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

Cameron is resigning. Boris is refusing to take the helm. Nigel Farage is stepping down. Last man to leave, remember to turn off the lights.

Boris is writing about how we need to unify the country this morning.... He's written in his column about how the 48% who voted Remain need assurance as to their futures in a Brexit UK, as well as the need for the mass hysteria over all of the mess to be calmed so we can 'unify as a nation'.

 

Call him a hypocrite but I give him 18 months before he apologises for campaigning for Leave and the 'rise of the fuzzy haired turd' begins.

 

The only thing we can be truly sure about this morning is, Gove has zero chance of being PM. He seems to be the social pariah of Westminster among the backbenchers. I doubt he will get beyond next weeks' elimination round. Crabb seems the most likely candidate to get the boot this week.

Edited July 4, 2016 by Sikee Atric

[Svip]

Why would anyone want to be Prime Minister while Article 50 is triggered? For the period between notification of intent is delivered (i.e. triggering Article 50) and its two year negotiation time, the UK will remain a member of the EU. And as such, can only negotiate with the EU on how to leave, it cannot negotiate with other countries for trade deals. And indeed, it cannot negotiate with the rest of the EU before Article 50 is triggered. Article 50 is very clear on that.

 

But don't worry, it was British politicians who got Article 50 written the way it was back in 2003 without realising the consequences of its implications. A 13 year old British political victory appears now to be shooting the UK in the foot.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

Consider this scenario....

 

May gets the victory and becomes PM. She was a Remain campaigner (although quietly) and she doesn't want to Leave. She is pushing for Single Market and limited immigration. So she enacts Article 50 with that plan and starts the negotiations. The EU simply states, "you want the Single Market, Schengen or nothing!"

 

So for two years, there's nothing but trenches and standstill. Both sides can then apply to extend the Leave clause of Article 50 to continue, so the UK doesn't Leave, the PM doesn't really want us to Leave and the EU doesn't want us to Leave either....

 

Come 2019 there's the MEP elections and the UK will participate and come 2020 the General Election kicks in. By then the sheer cost of trying to leave will have bitten, the EU should have reformed to show it can streamline and be more appealing as a unifying body and we'll either elect a new government based on the EU manifestos (either to remain as leaving is costing more than remaining, or we'll just go far right and elect a UKIP administration that will fracture the UK with a series of guaranteed Independence referendums). The other alternative is there will be a second referendum running concurrently with the General Election, or even the 2019 EU elections.

 

Either if May doesn't win, I really doubt we'll leave before 2020....

[Crokey]

All this could be delayed (of course) as a group of constitutional lawyers have correctly pointed out that to comply with Article 50, parliament would need to revoke the European Communities Act 1972.

 

That will take a long time to go through and could voted down which could lead to a catch 22 situation, which no doubt could be forefronted by the SNP, as a protest due to the sentiment that Scotland were going to be dragged out of the EU against their wishes, so tit for tat. Article 50 could be invoked without the repeal, but that would be first unconstitutional and second would leave the UK very weakly positioned when it comes to bargaining new deals, and would not be in the naional interest.

[Clem Fandango]

I don't know what you guys are talking about but I'm sure it spells the end for Corbyn. Everything does, apparently. The EU referendum he had nothing to do with, the state of his garden, a woman falling down the stairs in East Anglia. I only made one of those up.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

All this could be delayed (of course) as a group of constitutional lawyers have correctly pointed out that to comply with Article 50, parliament would need to revoke the European Communities Act 1972.

That will take a long time to go through and could voted down which could lead to a catch 22 situation, which no doubt could be forefronted by the SNP, as a protest due to the sentiment that Scotland were going to be dragged out of the EU against their wishes, so tit for tat. Article 50 could be invoked without the repeal, but that would be first unconstitutional and second would leave the UK very weakly positioned when it comes to bargaining new deals, and would not be in the naional interest.

I read the front cover of the papers in the supermarket earlier and saw the info about this point on the front cover of the Daily Respectable Pornrag, sorry, the Daily Express....

 

It was moaning about how this could bring 'street riots, protests and general civil unrest' if the case wins. Of course, this is the hackrag that spent the weekend complaining about the peaceful pro-remain protests at whick over 20,000 participants took part. It called the participants, 'the gutless minority,' even though there were a significant fraction that were Leavers who regretted their original vote.

 

If Remain had won in the first place, would Leave losers be protesting and would they be the gutless minority as well? Well, they'd be protesting but I bet the rag would be calling them heroic! It's almost like they're scared they could still get the rug pulled from under them.

 

The Daily Express and it's current stand, aw diddums!

[CheesepuffScott]

Very sad day, Nigel Farage has stepped down. I would've liked him to stay, but, he gave us something, he deserves a long rest.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/685958/Nigel-Farage-resigns-Ukip

 

Now, who will the next leader be? Carswell, meh, he's a traitor to UKIP, he should just leave.

[am30]

Very sad day, Nigel Farage has stepped down. I would've liked him to stay, but, he gave us something, he deserves a long rest.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/685958/Nigel-Farage-resigns-Ukip

 

Now, who will the next leader be? Carswell, meh, he's a traitor to UKIP, he should just leave.

 

He achieved what he set out to do and got us out of the EU. He's done the country a massive service and deserves his life back. All the best to him I say.

 

It's a shame though, someone like him would be good for the country as a PM - he doesn't BS or sugar coat what he says and seems just a regular person who understands the struggles of a regular people.

[Raavi]

It's July 4th, not April 1st.

[sivispacem]

I have no idea how anyone could possibly think that shovel-faced prick would be suited to any position of power. He's hilariously incompetent, completely oafish, utterly delusional and downright unpleasant. He makes Boris Johnson look positively likeable.

[Svip]

I have yet to see any actual evidence that this referendum is going to be honoured. If MPs have to actually activate it in practical terms, then who is to say that these MPs are going to vote as the majority of British voters or as their constituencies did or perhaps according to their believes? If the latter, SNP and Labour would likely vote to Remain, leaving only the Conservative party to actually having to upheld the referendum.

 

And given the Tories' behaviour lately, including May's reluctance and Farron's promise that he won't activate Article 50, it doesn't seem likely that their leaders are about to honour it either.

 

I think the result of this referendum will probably be good in the long run, but not for the reasons the 'victors' think:

 

- The EU will likely be reformed in a way more appetising to a growing group of Europeans, including the British.

- The British people will lose their trust in their own government institutions, and the possibility of a major reform seem likely. Possibly even a written constitution.

 

Well... at least we can hope that happens, otherwise this was much ado about nothing.

[El Dildo]

he gave us something, he deserves a long rest.

He's done the country a massive service and deserves his life back.

you guys are properly retarded.

 

captains go down with their ships.

rats escape.

[CBH]

The problem with Corbyn is the grassroots and trade union support. As long as he has that, they ain't shifting him....

 

If the PLP can get unions like Unite on their side and get them demanding he goes, then he has no choice! Until then he can fight with his back to the wall, knowing their support will keep him propped up....

 

This is funny. A Party leader has the support of the overwhelming majority of his party, but this is a "Problem".

 

I suppose an example of something that wouldn't be a problem, would be if Labour had a leader they did not like.

 

The Corbyn saga is amazing. One moment, we hear how he must leave because he is weak and spineless, and plenty of parliamentary bench warmers are happy to suggest they are made of stronger stuff. But when he refuses to leave, those same bench warmers start crying and weeing themselves, because they are afraid of how bad they might lose if they have to face him in a leader election.

[Clem Fandango]

 

The problem with Corbyn is the grassroots and trade union support. As long as he has that, they ain't shifting him....

 

If the PLP can get unions like Unite on their side and get them demanding he goes, then he has no choice! Until then he can fight with his back to the wall, knowing their support will keep him propped up....

 

This is funny. A Party leader has the support of the overwhelming majority of his party, but this is a "Problem".

 

I suppose an example of something that wouldn't be a problem, would be if Labour had a leader they did not like.

Yeah I was kind of baffled by Atric's 'he has to go for the good of the party' thing, like why do we want them to win if it's with some Blairite c*nt? I'd recommend he vote Torry.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Melchior

[CheesepuffScott]

First stage of the leadership election today, I'm backing Leadsom, she's only the candidate who I can fully trust.

 

I wonder who'll be eliminated today, I'm guessing Fox or Crabb, and if I have to predict the final stage, it'll be Leadsom v May

[Abel.]

Blairites are at least realistic Mel. Corbyn has done nothing but foment disunity and infighting within the Labour party. He's not as bad as Livingstone but that's not saying much.

[Svip]

The final stage being between Leadsom and May seems likely, as they currently hold the most publicly declared support. Although May's publicly declared support is thrice that of Leadsom's (118 v 39, respectively), and I doubt Leadsom is going to significantly improve on that before September, particularly considering May's popularity and trust within the Conservative party.

 

In order words; Theresa May is more likely than not going to be your next prime minister. With the current polling, publicly declared support and history, I cannot imagine - bar some act of God - a scenario where May is not the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland[1] come November.

 

[1] Of course, it's difficult to say for how long that is going to remain the official title.

[sivispacem]

Leadsom is a bit of a dark horse, but the fact she's got very little front bench experience and her close association with UKIP will harm her chances if she makes it through the elimination rounds. There's also questions about her personal finances; she's been implicated in legal but morally questionable tax avoidance and accepted dubious payments from family members via offshore bank accounts in tax havens.

 

Just goes to show, for all the bluster of the "Leave" canpaign over "standing up to the establishment", they'll gladly back a candidate whose every bit an embodiment of what they claim to oppose; deceptive financial arrangements, nepotism and cronyism abound.

[Svip]

They just wanted to replace the establishment with a different establishment. Or something. They weren't voting for more democracy if I recall correctly.