UK Politics & Current Affairs Discussion & DIY Home Improvement Thread

[GTA_stu]

Tchuck, the problem is that the experts got it wrong so many times previously which eroded public confidence and trust. All the experts were sure we'd Remain, and they got that wrong too. The experts could well be wrong again in this case, since we're not even a week into this and haven't even left yet. There were a wide range of experts predicting different things, including some clearly ridiculous and outlandish things which didn't help the overall impression people had of the rest of them. Yes the majority were predicting a negative economic outcome, and I think you'll find most voters were aware and took that on board. Some decided that was reason enough to vote Remain, some were prepared to risk it as they thought the potential benefits, many of which are very subjective, outweighed the risks. There were plenty of high profile people backing Brexit btw, including business leaders and economists. The weight of opinion was tilted in favour of Remain but it wasn't anywhere near as one sided as you're making out.

 

It wasn't more anti intellectual than anti establishment. The experts, who I know you love, have been calling it an anti establishment campaign, sentiment, result. Hardly any have been talking about it being an anti intellectual campaign, sentiment, result. So by your own logic it must be much more an anti establishment thing than an anti intellectual thing then.

[Clem Fandango]

The idea that there's anything remotely anti-establishment about this is laughable. Does this help bridge the gap between rich and poor? No all it is is nationalist chest beating, and nationalism in the West has always been more about submitting to state power than fighting it. The idea that Nigel poshboy Farage is some underdog hero and not a sleazy right wing c*nt vying for power isn't worth addressing.

 

I suppose it's anti-intellectual in the sense that demagogues like Farage whipped people into a frenzy over policy that they barely understand. People have no complex opinion on the EU, they've just had their anger directed towards it arbitrarily.

[sivispacem]

Tchuck, the problem is that the experts got it wrong so many times previously which eroded public confidence and trust.

People get things wrong. In the grand scheme of things, expert opinion as a concept (or in any given subject matter) is infinitesimally more likely to be correct than incorrect. It's not a logical or reasonable justification for ignoring expert advice.

 

If you'd once found out that your doctor had made a misdiagnosis ten years ago, would that cause you to do the exact opposite of his recommendations? One suspects not .

 

The experts, who I know you love, have been calling it an anti establishment campaign, sentiment, result. Hardly any have been talking about it being an anti intellectual campaign, sentiment, result.

Er, have they? I don't recall anyone other than "leave" really categorising it as anti-establishment. Can you cite some technocrats who have?

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

The idea that there's anything remotely anti-establishment about this is laughable. Does this help bridge the gap between rich and poor? No all it is is nationalist chest beating, and nationalism in the West has always been more about submitting to state power than fighting it. The idea that Nigel poshboy Farage is some underdog hero and not a sleazy right wing c*nt vying for power isn't worth addressing.

 

I suppose it's anti-intellectual in the sense that demagogues like Farage whipped people into a frenzy over policy that they barely understand. People have no complex opinion on the EU, they've just had their anger directed towards it arbitrarily.

 

Those the 'frog-faced wanker' (A description doing the rounds on Youtube and very apt) couldn't get angry, they lied to instead and then rescinded those lies the morning after, as people realized during that GMB interview on Friday morning....

 

No wonder the country is confused over what happened. It is almost the grounds for a public enquiry to actually determine what has been done and break it down to a level even the politicians can understand....

[Stephan90]

The EU wants to push CETA through without seeking approval of national parliaments. Leaving the EU will cost the UK lots of money but we have also serious problems within the EU, so I can understand if people are unsatisfied and want the right to participate in decisions related to the EU. I think a key argument for the Brexit was that voters felt that if they didn't vote leave now the EU would be much different in the future and that this was a now or never chance.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Stephan90

[Svip]

The EU wants to push CETA through without seeking approval of national parliaments.

I think you are mistaken there. It's Italy that wants to block having it through national parliaments.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

Today the nominations for Tory leader and PM open and they shut 24 hours after. It is still not clear how many nominees there will be, or what their manifestos will be. It will be interesting to see who comes out of the background to challenge Boris, since Gove has backed him and Osbourne is refusing to stand. It is thought there will be three or four plus Boris, with a wide spread of manifestos to match.

 

Meanwhile in the Labour camp, the PLP is aiming to have their candidate in place to try and oust Corbyn as quickly as possible. Since you need 50 MP names to nominate and the members have vowed to unite behind one name, that isn't a problem for them, but questions will be asked if Corbyn's name will be even on a ballot paper, since he only has support from 40 MP's and no one is sure if he gets on the ballot automatically.

 

Strange days....

[Stephan90]

 

The EU wants to push CETA through without seeking approval of national parliaments.

I think you are mistaken there. It's Italy that wants to block having it through national parliaments.

 

 

Today it was on the news that it is also the EU commision that doesn't want the national parliaments to decide.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Stephan90

[sivispacem]

 

 

The EU wants to push CETA through without seeking approval of national parliaments.

I think you are mistaken there. It's Italy that wants to block having it through national parliaments.

 

Today it was on the news that it is also the EU commision that doesn't want the national parliaments to decide.

Care to cite this? Not saying I don't believe you, I'm just a million times more likely to believe Svip.

 

Meanwhile in the Labour camp, the PLP is aiming to have their candidate in place to try and oust Corbyn as quickly as possible. Since you need 50 MP names to nominate and the members have vowed to unite behind one name, that isn't a problem for them, but questions will be asked if Corbyn's name will be even on a ballot paper, since he only has support from 40 MP's and no one is sure if he gets on the ballot automatically.

The incumbent only needs 15% to stand, or 38 MPs.

 

I really don't buy Corbyn's logic. Yes, he won the leadership contest last time around with a great degree of support from party activists, but the circumstances have changed significantly enough to justify establishing whether that support base remains. It was, after all, a campaign orchestrated largely by the most radical in the party and it has become clear over the last six months that the wider country do not have the same affinity for him that the hard left do.

 

Whether or not he can win a leadership contest with the support of a few thousand hardcore members is sort of irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. If he can't rally popular support at a time when the Conservatives are basically imploding he's worthless.

 

I'm genuinely hoping for a re-run of the SDP split. We need a proper centrist political movement in this country to counteract increasing factionalism and radicalism on both the left and right.

[Stephan90]

 

 

 

The EU wants to push CETA through without seeking approval of national parliaments.

I think you are mistaken there. It's Italy that wants to block having it through national parliaments.

 

Today it was on the news that it is also the EU commision that doesn't want the national parliaments to decide.

Care to cite this? Not saying I don't believe you, I'm just a million times more likely to believe Svip.

 

http://www.dw.com/en/eu-aims-to-sidestep-parliaments-on-ceta/a-19363101

Edited June 29, 2016 by Stephan90

[Svip]

 

 

 

 

The EU wants to push CETA through without seeking approval of national parliaments.

I think you are mistaken there. It's Italy that wants to block having it through national parliaments.

 

Today it was on the news that it is also the EU commision that doesn't want the national parliaments to decide.

 

Care to cite this? Not saying I don't believe you, I'm just a million times more likely to believe Svip.

 

http://www.dw.com/en/eu-aims-to-sidestep-parliaments-on-ceta/a-19363101

 

That seems a plausible official statement. Generally speaking, if one government wants to sidestep national parliaments, the EU generally don't mention who advocated this. Notice that the reason we know it was Italy was because it was leaked. The EU doesn't hang its members out to dry.

 

Again, I willing to debate whether this lack of transparency is good for democracy, but it is definitely done in the interest of governing, so that members can make unpopular suggestions or decisions without becoming a scapegoat. The problem is - as mentioned in the Ars Technica article - that it only takes one member to sidestep the national parliaments. Because it works the other way around; each country have to approve that national parliaments will make a decision, and these decisions must be unanimous.

[Stephan90]

I really think that the problem of the EU is that we have started with economical cooperation and continued with more and more integration, without ever having a proper discussion what the final result should be. There needs to be a discussion about where we are heading towards and there needs to be a compromise to which all EU members can agree in a democratic way with national referendums. If the EU goes more far than that it will break up piece by piece and the peoples will become more and more divided. I believe that there is no majority in any EU country in favour for a European state. I believe there has never been one and I believe in my lifetime there will never be one. And what we need to prevent is that multinational companies and banks turn the EU into a corporate Europe that puts the interests of the people behind corporate interests.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Stephan90

[sivispacem]

It's also not really what Stephan was originally saying.

 

He stated that the EU wants to push CETA through without the approval of individual member states. That report says that the EU head believes that it rests solely in the jurisdiction of the EU's Executive and therefore does not require the agreement of the domestic governments of member states. There's also not denying individual member states the opportunity to give input.

 

Whether or not CETA should be run through the democratic processes of member states is a separate issue really. I'm inclined to believe it should.

[Stephan90]

I didn't say that the EU doesn't want national states to give input. They did give input. CETA is finished already. It only needs to be approved. And according to Juncker the EU commision doesn't want that it needs to be approved by national parliaments.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Stephan90

[sivispacem]

And according to Juncker the EU commision doesn't want that it needs to be approved by national parliaments.

Not quite what it actually says, as I've already pointed out:

 

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told EU leaders on Tuesday that CETA would fall within the exclusive competence of the EU executive and therefore didn't need to be ratified by national parliaments in the 28-nation bloc, sources in Brussels told the German news agency DPA...

 

...Commission President Juncker argues that allowing national parliaments to have a say in the agreement will paralyze the process and put the bloc's credibility at stake.

Juncker argues it doesn't need to be ratified by national governments; he also says that a ratification process could paralyse the deal and risk the credibility of the bloc. That's not really the same thing.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

Steven Crabbe is the first name in the Tory leadership campaign and he's going for a 'no vote or referendums' manifesto.... I doubt he'll get far, he's a bit of an arse and a genuine slimeball. He has made several questionable ministerial decisions already and doesn't seem ready for anything higher than he is.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Sikee Atric

[am30]

Boris Johnson is the only sensible choice to lead the Tory's. They need someone whose head and heart are firmly on the side of the UK being out of the EU.

[GTA_stu]

I hope Corbyn goes now and Alan Johnson replaces him. Just so we can have Johnson v Johnson.

[am30]

A pair of Johnsons in the Commons!

[sivispacem]

Boris Johnson is the only sensible choice to lead the Tory's. They need someone whose head and heart are firmly on the side of the UK being out of the EU.

Having the public figurehead of a vitriolic, anti-intellectual campaign that very nearly half of the electorate voted against, and who is hated by a large chunk of his own party, doesn't strike me as the most sensible approach if the Conservatives ever actually want to win a General Election again. Though the fact he's already said that Schengen wouldn't be off the table in order to gain membership to the Internal Market is a plus, I suppose.

 

Surely the most logical choice would be a less public, vocal individual on either side; either one of the Eurosceptic remain supporters or one of the (admittedly small) group of leave campaigners who look on the EU more favourably? The party needs a candidate it can actually unite around unless we just want to see reruns of the ongoing implosion of Labour ad infinitum.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

 

Boris Johnson is the only sensible choice to lead the Tory's. They need someone whose head and heart are firmly on the side of the UK being out of the EU.

Having the public figurehead of a vitriolic, anti-intellectual campaign that very nearly half of the electorate voted against, and who is hated by a large chunk of his own party, doesn't strike me as the most sensible approach if the Conservatives ever actually want to win a General Election again. Though the fact he's already said that Schengen wouldn't be off the table in order to gain membership to the Internal Market is a plus, I suppose.

 

Surely the most logical choice would be a less public, vocal individual on either side; either one of the Eurosceptic remain supporters or one of the (admittedly small) group of leave campaigners who look on the EU more favourably? The party needs a candidate it can actually unite around unless we just want to see reruns of the ongoing implosion of Labour ad infinitum.

 

 

Both the Tories and Labour are in such a mess it seems impossible for either side to actually find candidates to truly unify behind....

 

Tim Farron has hinted he's been approached by several other MP's and lobbyists from both the Tories and Labour, following their joint work on the Remain campaign and although he's promised to not get involved while Leadership elections are underway, defections once they're done seem very possible. Especially since the Lib Dem senior staff (what's left of them) have already agreed to run on a second referendum manifesto if the need for a General Election pops up in the coming months.

 

Meanwhile, Polish journalistic staff at the EU chambers have been interviewed by 5 Live and their opinion is quite plausible as well. They were joking about the idea of the Article 50 wranglings going on so long and cost both the UK and EU so much, both sides just give up and admit the UK ain't going, a few years down the line.... They were joking about the scenario, but you could actually hear the seriousness in their comments.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Sikee Atric

[Smith John]

I know he hasn't put his name forward, and has so far backed Johnson, but it'd be interesting to see what Jacob Rees-Mogg would bring to the campaign had or should he choose to throw his hat in. He's a backbencher, so perhaps it's not his time yet. Dr Liam Fox is also somebody I'd possibly prematurely support at this point. It'll be a long few months, that much is for sure.

 

As for Corbyn, whilst I admire his conviction, if I were a Labour supporter - God forbid - I'd support his resignation as party leader. The party has been an absolute clusterf*ck of infighting during his tenure at the top, and I think it's unquestionably in the party's interests for him to step down. Who they'd replace him with? I frankly and honestly couldn't give a f*ck right now.

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

As for Corbyn, whilst I admire his conviction, if I were a Labour supporter - God forbid - I'd support his resignation as party leader. The party has been an absolute clusterf*ck of infighting during his tenure at the top, and I think it's unquestionably in the party's interests for him to step down. Who they'd replace him with? I frankly and honestly couldn't give a f*ck right now.

 

The problem with Corbyn is the grassroots and trade union support. As long as he has that, they ain't shifting him....

 

If the PLP can get unions like Unite on their side and get them demanding he goes, then he has no choice! Until then he can fight with his back to the wall, knowing their support will keep him propped up....

[BRITLAND]

Theresa May is being labelled as the stop Boris candidate and one who many believe will unite the Conservative party. She's also more tough on immigration than Boris who believe it or not is apparently as pro immigration as Tony Blair which will of course will not go down well with brexitors. But there's going to be a good chunk of candidates like Crabb along with Nicky Morgan, Liam Fox, Andrea Leadsom and Jeremy Hunt.

As for Labour it's all but confirmed that Angela Eagle will challenge Corbyn for the leadership with the aim of uniting the party, unless Corbyn decides to step down and we'll probably get five candidates from all over Labour's political spectrum. I really don't understand what it is with Labour and picking bad leaders. Sure anything is better than Corbyn but Eagle & Watson aren't going to appeal to anyone outside the Labour Party ffs, hopefully Corbyn does the decent thing and stand down so I don't need to endure Eagle's face and voice on a daily/weekly basis for the next four years.

Edited June 30, 2016 by BRITLAND

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

May Vs Boris is the most likely final two. May as the (ABB : Anyone But Boris) anti-immigration and Boris as the Single Market and Schengen candidate (He'll basically play lapdog if it means we exit.)

 

What a quandary....

[Svip]

I'm confused. Who will activate Article 50? May or Johnson?

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

Both will....

 

SHOCK HORROR : Gove has questioned Boris' character and has gone it alone in the leadership race!

 

In reality the slug faced wanker (If Farage is a frog faced wanker, then Gove really is a slug.) has realized Boris is just in it for the gain and will do anything that scares anyone else! It looks like the reality of Boris getting us into a Schengen agreement is scaring the anti-immigration crowd....

Edited June 30, 2016 by Sikee Atric

[BRITLAND]

Game over for Boris, he has ruled himself out now. The race will now be between Theresa May and Michael Gove. This will be interesting.

Edited June 30, 2016 by BRITLAND

[Svip]

So basically, your next prime minister is Theresa May?

[Uncle Sikee Atric]

So the slug faced wanker has done the Brutus!

 

It is down to the others now and I am not even sure May is likely to stand against Gove (Yuck, that word tastes bad in my mouth). Gove has done a terrible job at every secretary position he has held, doubly at education where he basically screwed every teaching post in the UK.

 

May was purely anti-Boris and she may not have much left to stand with now.

 

Boris is laughing at all this. He knows damn well the demands the EU will put on the table and how whoever takes the PM post will drag all the drek over Article 50 for years to come.... He's now poised to awaiting the next PM post and will go for it then, with the intention of withdrawing from Article 50 and staying right where we are, and he'll be a hero for doing it....

 

He ain't daft Boris, he's just proved it by letting Gove go for it and end up taking all the flak for failing to get an Article 50 deal.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Sikee Atric