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Melech

Greece faces early election after PM loses vote on president

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Svip

 

Of course such a big monetary union between economically different states only works with political union in the long term. But a political union is not part of the contract.

Er, yes it is. The Treaty of Rome implicitly implements a degree of economic union by centralising political decision making on policy areas directly related to economics. The Lisbon Treaty similarly clarifies and extends these powers across a whole range of policy areas. Pretending that EU legislation does not enact a degree political union is basically ignoring the entire underlying legislative basis and history of the EU.

 

Devalueing your currency is good for your export because your products are cheaper for the outside world

As I've pointed out multiple times, this Mickey-Mouse, primary-school, paint-by-numbers economics is clearly and demonstrably utter nonsense in a globalised supply chain where exports are dependent on foreign imports. Continuing to pretend that this inconvenient (for your rhetoric) fact doesn't exist is really very silly.

 

 

@Southland- that first image is utterly ridiculous. You'd have to be terminally stupid to try and draw parallels between pre- and post-Euro prices without factoring in inflation. Oh well, I suppose it panders to the idiots who blame Southern Europe's economic woes on those nasty Germans instead of decades of questionable economic policy. They aren't clever enough to realise it's a flawed comparison.

 

 

Just like the Russians, it's easier to blame foreigners. That way politicians don't have to take action.

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Stephan90

The framework for the € is the treaty of Maastricht not the treaty of Rome or treaty of Lisbon. € framework is independent from EU framework.

 

I know that a devalued currency makes imports more costly and that exports that contain import components don't become cheaper by the same amount in which the currency is devalued. But per saldo it definitely becomes cheaper.

 

Also tourism is mainly not a physical product. You don't import the hotel or the beach which your guests are paying for.

 

I am out of this topic everything has been discussed for now in my opinion. Photoshop pictures and cartoons are already being posted, which means it is time to leave the topic.

Edited by Stephan90

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sivispacem

The Euro framework is not independent from the Treaty of Rome. It exists inside the framework outlined by Rome and to pretend otherwise could only be construed as a wilful attempt to misrepresente the truth.

 

Prove that "per saldo" it becomes cheaper in the case of Greece. As a tertiary economy which is largely dependent on primary and secondary imports this notion flies in the face of accepted economic doctrine so let's see you justify the idea that Greece, which was a net importer at the time of Euro membership, would suddenly become a profitable net exporter on leaving it.

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Xanbukka

Same story, over and over again, country after country. Nobody pays for these moves, but the general public, who happen to be, mostly ignorant to the cards being used. However, I can see clearly, the trouble the prime movers are having, with all these half backed attempts to turn more humans into fiscal surfs. Makes me wonder if they are actually losing steam with all the games they have going on, or if this is just the "calm" before the storm, as it seems.......

 

The true test will be be when they finally try to finally debase the U.S. dollar, from the global scheme of things, and try to re-order the mess we got going on over here. It won't go quietly into the night, by any stretch of the imagination.....

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Dingdongs

SIN_TI%257E1.PNG

 

Some of those thing really don't seem like a big deal. Price for a coffee everywhere has probably gone up signifixantly also since 99, as with the price of a hotel room and an apartment, etc. milk prices especially have gone up a lot since 99. As for the small comparative increase in his salary, I'm not sure what that has to do with a direct result of the Euro but rather a result of Spain's poor economic practices over the last decade. Edited by Irviding

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sivispacem

Plus, as I pointed out above, 12 years of inflation not being taken into account.

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Xanbukka

Everything in the states is rising in price, though gasoline has bottomed out, due to over all gouging, too much greed in the futures markets, and all the wrong people, having control of all the cards. The biggest problem we have here in the states, is we import over half of food stuffs, most of which at some point, we grew right here at home. Thanks N.A.T.A & G.A.T.A.

 

The real pressing issue we have here though, is over aggressive federal agencies, like the F.D.A., and E.P.A. who's main job is shutting off farms, and raising the bar of so called "food safety", effectively making any attempt to grow, or manufacture food here, an impossible task, at best..... The price of all this, rolls right downhill, to the store shelf. I call it trickle down job security, for those who deserve it less.......

 

Things we import, like fruits, veggies, coffee, etc. are going up in price, because the U.S. dollar no longer dominates in the trade markets, like it did in oil as well. Countries like Iran, and it is suspected Russia, and Germany, are slowing making gold and silver hedges, in the food trade markets, like they have been doing in the oil markets. This will, if practiced widely enough, will make the U.S. dollar, clouded in enormous global debts, useless, so it winds up taking more and more dollars, to chase down, the same amount of product the year before, this is what I call, the gig is up inflation. Your game is getting outsmarted, and so rightly it should......

 

The inflation game is happening everywhere, in every country, even those trying to play the game the right way, if there is one. All the money in the system will eventually collapse, especially when most of it, is just 0's and 1's on someone's spread-sheet, tied into a mortgage derivative, over in the states. Oddly enough, everything that seemed to run the game, during the 80's and 90's, is coming up to be nothing but a bust, or sliding violently into one. Just have to see how the big cookie crumbles, is all I can say....... None if it, will play out well, on the people themselves, period.

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Xanbukka

Sorry, almost forgot the main topic. Elections are a huge fraud now, everywhere. They are picket, groomed, then pushed before the people with a script, to buy their minds. The European Union, since it's founding, might have been a great idea in someone's book, but it went way across the grain of human history, virtually plotting it's death, before it ever got off the ground. All I see when I look at politics, especially in the E.U., is the same old faces, trying to play the same old games, while the protests, and uprisings go through the roof. The people know their futures were sold long ago, on empty promises, kind of like what has been, and is happening to Ukraine, though that mess is on a different level. The people will suffer the choices being made, that isn't denied by anyone I happen to discuss with. The leaders are taking orders, from the hopeless, owners. The people are trying to follow the leaders, but quickly figuring out, this is a bad, bad joke........ As you can see, I do not have anything good to say about it, (Though believe me, I wish I did.) I only see where it's going.

Edited by Xanbukka

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Dingdongs

 


The real pressing issue we have here though, is over aggressive federal agencies, like the F.D.A., and E.P.A. who's main job is shutting off farms, and raising the bar of so called "food safety", effectively making any attempt to grow, or manufacture food here, an impossible task, at best..... The price of all this, rolls right downhill, to the store shelf. I call it trickle down job security, for those who deserve it less.......

 

Things we import, like fruits, veggies, coffee, etc. are going up in price, because the U.S. dollar no longer dominates in the trade markets, like it did in oil as well. Countries like Iran, and it is suspected Russia, and Germany, are slowing making gold and silver hedges, in the food trade markets, like they have been doing in the oil markets. This will, if practiced widely enough, will make the U.S. dollar, clouded in enormous global debts, useless, so it winds up taking more and more dollars, to chase down, the same amount of product the year before, this is what I call, the gig is up inflation. Your game is getting outsmarted, and so rightly it should......

 

The inflation game is happening everywhere, in every country, even those trying to play the game the right way, if there is one. All the money in the system will eventually collapse, especially when most of it, is just 0's and 1's on someone's spread-sheet, tied into a mortgage derivative, over in the states. Oddly enough, everything that seemed to run the game, during the 80's and 90's, is coming up to be nothing but a bust, or sliding violently into one. Just have to see how the big cookie crumbles, is all I can say....... None if it, will play out well, on the people themselves, period.

 

How is it the FDA and EPA's job to shut down farms when the United States subsidizes farming probably at a rate close to what the Chinese do?

 

As for the rest of your post, you just seem to be tooting the old Ron Paul horn about how we need to go back to a gold standard and how money is all fake, etc. News for you, money is fake and for us to live in the system we currently live in, it needs to remain as such. The money system is not going to collapse as long as people continue to believe in fiat currency which will never ever stop happening. It didn't happen when inflation was at 10% in the 70s and 80s and it isn't happening now when inflation is barely ticking 2%.

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Xanbukka

Believe the system is working for you friend, by all means, I'm not here to change anyone's mind, just another fool touting his "opinion" in the sea of opinions. If you have a problem with (Ron Paul), I'd advise you to go take it up with him. I for one liked what he said when he was around, but because everything he said didn't jive with the cool kids on the block, he didn't get anywhere, leaving me to think, he was as solid as the rest...... that being none at all.

 

I'm not a gold or silver broker, so I'll be the last in line to tell anyone to invest in it. The prices are going south through some heavy manipulation tactics anyway, anyone on the market knows that. That 2% number is simply laughable though, really? does that include the costs of fuel, food, and housing? you do realize the federal government does not include those very staples into their "official" numbers........

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Xanbukka

The fake money will last forever? on mere public faith in it huh? May I quote you in my signature from here on out?

 

Anyone in the house, with their retirement savings, in Rubles? Feel free to chime in here. Anyone who lived in Venezuela for that matter? Anyone?

Edited by Xanbukka

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sivispacem

Ahh, Ron Paul. Proof that, in America, you can be a racist old coot, a compulsive liar and have absolutely no basic grasp of economics or geopolitics yet still form a grassroots political movement amongst reasonably well-educated people by reading policies from the blurb of "the fairytale guide to politics".

 

Then again, what do you expect from someone who names their son after a philosopher whose primary thesis is so ridiculous it makes solipsism look sensible.

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Frank Brown

Then again, what do you expect from someone who names their son after a philosopher whose primary thesis is so ridiculous it makes solipsism look sensible.

 

Rand = Randal. Not Rand as in Ayn Rand.

Edited by Frank Brown

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Zook

 

Then again, what do you expect from someone who names their son after a philosopher whose primary thesis is so ridiculous it makes solipsism look sensible.

 

Rand = Randal. Not Rand as in Ayn Rand.

 

Either way Ayn Rand is incredibly simple and dumb so is her "Philosophy". Rand and Ron are also simple and dumb for being fans and buying into it.

 

Political philosophy aside her metaphysical and epistemological philosophy is not taken seriously and is laughed at by everyone in the philosophical community.

Edited by Zook

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Stephan90

As for the topic of inflation that was brought up here, one should view inflation as the expansion of the total amount of money rather than the average price changes for consumers only. Consumer prices in the Eurozone don't increase much anymore right now. But prices for state bonds increased much more during the last couple of years and not only in the Euro zone average but also in industrialized countries all over the world, because the financial markets have been flodded with money in all those countries. The additional money also went into the stock markets for example. The state bond markets of European countries, USA, Japan are the biggest financial bubbles in the world. They will burst sometime in the future or the money will leave the bond market again more slowly. Nobody knows when exactly and how fast it will happen. Only thing that is sure is that it will happen, because despite the flodding of the financial markets with lots of money and the creation of the price bubble in the state bond market, the debts of the above mentioned countries are still rising, until it has reached a critical point, where investors want to get rid of their risk and withdraw from the state bond markets. The money will be spend in other markets, partially in the markets for consumer goods. This is will lead to big inflation in the classical sense of rising prices, because the bubble in the state bond market is so extremely big. When it happens then people with low income and wealth will get into serious trouble.

Edited by Stephan90

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sivispacem

Of course, but it's the Consumer and Retail indices which affect day-to-day pricing and therefore living standards. As for your comments about investor interest in Euro nation bonds, you're right about there being a bubble but your speculation regarding their potential collapse and the reasons for it is pretty unconvincing. The reason for increasing investment in Southern European bonds is pretty well understood and bond yields have actually been declining rather than inflating. Investment generally drives bond returns down, not up.

 

The issue is that deflation in Southern economies means that, even though bond values are growing, the real debt burden is increasing due to deflation in the economy. Many investors hedged their money on the basis that the ECB would soon start printing more money, or take other actions to reduce deflation and therefore debt burdens, but despite deflation still spiralling we're only just beginning to see a movement towards stabilising- the knock-on effect of this delay being the Euro weakening further on the back of investor concerns.

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Stephan90

Sivispacem I didn't talk about "bond yields" I talked about "bond prices". The higher the market price of a bond is the lower the bond yield is. If you pay more for a bond on the market with a fix return then your return on investment shrinks.

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Xanbukka

Just give it time boys. The T.V. won't warn you with enough time, to do anything about it, when they do.

 

Good luck with your little debates, ok....... :beerhat:

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sivispacem

Sivispacem I didn't talk about "bond yields" I talked about "bond prices". The higher the market price of a bond is the lower the bond yield is. If you pay more for a bond on the market with a fix return then your return on investment shrinks.

Bond prices and bond yields are inseparable, yes. The reduction of yield is simply a manifestation of increasing bond price. But traditionally a high value, low yield bond market is seller-centric. It's unusual to see a correlation between lower bond yields and increasing purchases if you assume that the main attraction in buying the bond is the yield. Therefore the market is already behaving in a way that, based on this principal, is abnormal. That suggests that investors are eyeing up something other than maximising yield in their purchasing of bonds.

 

My point isn't that you're wrong or likely to be wrong regarding the likelihood of the bond bubble bursting, it's that your proposed reason for that bursting is based on "normal" behaviour regarding bond purchases and sales and the current climate is certainly not normal. So I don't think it's rational to assume that seller behaviour will follow tradition if buyer behaviour didn't. Investors have been hedging on ECB action to limit deflation but it hasn't materialised; the biggest factor on whether or not the bubble bursts will be how the markets react to whatever measures the ECB may put in place to mitigate this, with inaction almost certainly resulting in a crash. But we shall see.

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Stephan90

I know that more bond buyers mean less bond yields with a given number of bonds on the market or a given demand of states in auction new bonds.

 

But the lower bond yields are one aim imho of the central bank for flooding the markets with money. THe additional money isn't lended to the real economy companies, because there is not enough consumer demand in crisis states and also those companies who need credits don't get them for a reasonable interest rate from the banks, because it is too risky for them and they believe they can put everything into bonds of states and still make a profit. And they are sure that the central bank will either flood the markets with more money or buy bonds directly if the states are in the danger of not being able to pay interest to the investors.

 

Basically this will lead to more debts financed with more credits. It is impossible within our money system to pay back all the debts without making new debts or everything is reset to a lower level by doing debt cuts. But you can also go on with the debt - credit spiral until someday everything breaks together with a chain reaction of debt defaults.

 

It's like digging a hole on the beach and put the sand on a pile right next to it. The higher the pile is the more sand will fall back into the hole. So you can start digging faster and faster to make the pile bigger until you can't dig faster. Or you give up and put the sand back in the hole on your own. That's basically our money system. The hole is the debts and the pile is the money/credits.

Edited by Stephan90

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sivispacem

But the lower bond yields are one aim imho of the central bank for flooding the markets with money.

Which, despite this being the primary expectation of investors, hasn't happened at all. The expectation has been that the ECB will negate deflation by either printing more money or through some other mechanism but they haven't.

 

THe additional money isn't lended to the real economy companies, because there is not enough consumer demand in crisis states

The upside of deflation for consumers being reductions in price which generally lead to knock-on increases in demand, but demand has remained sluggish and the banks have continued to do nothing.

 

Basically this will lead to more debts financed with more credits.

The issue here isn't so much the debts (which are already north of 100% of GDP in most instances) but the deflation. Given that investors are willing to invest when debts are already this high, there's no reason to believe that future high debts in themselves will spook them. Investors are expecting an ECB reaction to counteract deflation and the knock-on effects (namely stunted growth) and if they don't get one, that's when they're going to want to cut their losses

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Stephan90

Well I think there was a decrease of interest rates during the last couple of years partly due to cheap new money and low base interest rate.

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c3/Long-term_interest_rates_%28eurozone%29.png

 

I wouldn't solely blame the low demand on low inflation and now in some countries like Spain mild deflation. You know what my main explanation is and the austerity politics also adds very much to the low demand. But again in my opinion the high state debts, that were the argument for austerity, are partly a result of ... you know what I said about that.

 

As for what you said in your last part about investors, I think that is extremely wrong, because there is a lack of investment in south Europe. Of course investors invest in the USA with over 100% of GDP in debts but the USA have their own central bank and strong economy.

 

Southern European states have mostly higher debts and aren't able to even deal with the same rate of debts as the USA. Do you think that investors who want many years of planning safety to invest will ignore the height of debts in south Europe and believe the ECB will handle that for them? They can't even be sure of any political future development in southern Europe and the Euro zone in general. It can go on like it´is now for years or can break together this year if the political situation drastically changes.

Edited by Stephan90

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sivispacem

As for what you said in your last part about investors, I think that is extremely wrong, because there is a lack of investment in south Europe. Of course investors invest in the USA with over 100% of GDP in debts but the USA have their own central bank and strong economy.

By "invest" in this context I meant "invest in purchasing bonds" rather than more generally. Usually the decreases in yield due to increased bond purchases are indicative of investor faith in the current economic climate and tend to herald increased direct investment but, because current bond buying patterns don't conform to the norms given the economic climate.

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Stephan90

Then I agree with you. But i think it is unfair that investors of bonds of some states get high return on investment and on the same time a factual guarantee by the central bank that it will step in to prevent any possible default.

 

That ridicules the principles of chance and risk. And it is mostly only beneficial for investors who already have enough wealth. It is even more perverted if the investors borrow that money for lower interest rates for example through carry trades and thereby gain from the leverage effect.

Edited by Stephan90

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Stephan90

Not surprised, it is easy to vote for someone, who promises you gifts from money he doesn't have, when you are unemployed and don't know how to pay your bills.

 

I hope it comes to a big clash in Europe and that Greece gets thrown out of the Euro as fast as possible. Evey day more is a farce.

Edited by Stephan90

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Melech

I hope it comes to a big clash in Europe and that Greece gets thrown out of the Euro as fast as possible. Evey day more is a farce.

 

I hope so.

 

I have nothing against Greece (quite the opposite) but I hope Syriza destroys Greece. Why? Because that would set an example to the potential voters of the populist Five Star Movement in Italy and the populist Chavista communist party 'Podemos' in Spain. Greece is only 1.4% of the EU GDP, but Italy and Spain are too important.

 

Countries like Greece should have never got the euro.

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Dingdongs

Just curious, while this guy may or may not be too extreme, can either of you offer up what you think is going to work here? I mean Spain in particular has tried austerity and there is 20%+ unemployed youth... what's wrong with some intervention?

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Stephan90

Just curious, while this guy may or may not be too extreme, can either of you offer up what you think is going to work here? I mean Spain in particular has tried austerity and there is 20%+ unemployed youth... what's wrong with some intervention?

 

Wasn't this discussed here in the thread already?

 

My main problem with this man apart from the irrational gifts that he has promised is that he wants on the one side to not pay the debts of Greece and on the other side wants to stay in the Euro.

 

Greece should start to sell their over 100 tons of gold to pay their debts. Greece has a lot of oil and gas in the mediteranian sea, they could pay of the debts with mining licences... OR they could start to take taxes from the rich Greeks, who have been largely spared until now. In Greece, people still owe the state over 50 billion € from taxes. Let's start with those 50 billion Euros. That would be a beginning for what Greece owes other €-states right now.

Edited by Stephan90

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Docfaustino

If what you say about the Mediterranean is true, why haven't they begun oil and gas exploration? From someone who knows nothing about Greece. It could go towards fixing the debt right.

 

I've been desperately trying to catch up on reading to figure out this EU stuff. Can someone tell me in PM if necessary is it true Merkel runs the EU and tells the other European countries what to do?

Edited by Docfaustino

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