Military Crisis in Ukraine

[Clem Fandango]

I guess I worded that in a stupid way. What I meant was that noone has ever succeeded in causing regime change in Russia by completely taking over. Which I'm not completely sure of either I guess..

Well, the end of the Cold War might count? A lot of the economic reforms in Russia were at the behest of the US and the IMF. They probably thought Western corporations would take over, but that didn't really work out.

[K^2]

but this also extends to the fact that some of the "local" defence forces who immediately "appeared" in Crimea after the protests peaked were armed with AN-94 rifles, which are only deployed to the Russian Alpha units and some other Spetsnaz and interior ministry forces.

And Provisional IRA. But I somehow don't think these were Irishmen. When these "defense forces" started loading into latest Russian APCs, it also kind of gave it away. I don't think there are any sane people that are going to question that "defense forces" in Crimea were Russian special forces.

 

There seems to be a consensus that the snipers were a false flag operation made up of non Ukranian special forces.

There is no such consensus. There were snipers on Berkut side, some armed with Russian rifles, as sivispacem points out, and there were Afghan vets acting as counter-snipers on the protester side. These guys were armed primarily with hunting rifles converted into sniper rifles, so it's pretty easy to tell the difference. For example, protesters were fired upon with armor-piercing rounds not available for general sale. Moreover, there is actual video footage of snipers firing into crowds from Berkut side. Berkut forces, in contrast, were fired upon with standard rounds.

 

So the current Minister of Interior, and former part of the opposition, literal quotes of him, are pro Russian? That makes no sense..

All he said was that there were provocateurs with fire arms. I think, you are either over-relying on a crappy translation, or misunderstanding the text.

[Eutyphro]

So the current Minister of Interior, and former part of the opposition, literal quotes of him, are pro Russian? That makes no sense..

 

All he said was that there were provocateurs with fire arms. I think, you are either over-relying on a crappy translation, or misunderstanding the text.

 

And that they were a 'non Ukranian third party'.

[sivispacem]

 

 

 

 

So the current Minister of Interior, and former part of the opposition, literal quotes of him, are pro Russian? That makes no sense..

All he said was that there were provocateurs with fire arms. I think, you are either over-relying on a crappy translation, or misunderstanding the text.

And that they were a 'non Ukranian third party'.

I think I'm going to trust the one with direct experience of the Russian language over an iffy translation, to be honest. Given the current climate, that reads to me as an allegation that Russians were on the ground in Kiev supporting the Berkut units which isn't that surprising for all the reasons outlined above.

[Eutyphro]

I'm sure we will find out definitive answers to the question of who were responsible for specific shootings soon. Investigations of it are still being done. We'll see.

Edited March 22, 2014 by gtaxpert

[K^2]

And that they were a 'non Ukranian third party'.

Sure, but he's not talking about the snipers. Here is the direct quote in question, without any interpretation from the editor:

 

"Могу лишь сказать одно: ключевым фактором в этом противостоянии, вылившемся в кровавое побоище в Киеве, которое перевернуло страну с ног на голову и ввело ее в состояние шока, была третья сила. И эта сила не украинская"

 

"I can say one thing: key factor in this confrontation, turned into bloody fight in Kiev, which has turned the country upside down and has caused the stated of shock, was a third side. And that side is not Ukrainian."

 

The word I'm translating as "side" above literally means "force" in Russian, but it's used figuratively here to mean "side" or "party".

[SparkleCalibreDF]

There is a big chance that Putin will try to invade eastern parts of Ukraine, the reason for that is simple: Ukraine has some plants producing military equipment that Russia doesn't (helicopter, space and ship engines; lots of warfare parts - too much details to enlist), they have mostly old technologies (Soviets upgraded), Russia is highly dependent on this (in 15 years of money and resource grabbing Putout didn't find time to built Russia own plants).

Putane was going to give Yanukovich $15 billion, Yanukobitch would spent em on modernizing those plants + Yanukovich would use that for his election campaign, so later he would just hand Ukraine to Putin.

Beware of evil KGB and use Google translate: http://lb.ua/news/2014/03/19/259940_klyuchey_ponimaniyu_motivov.html and http://sovsekretno.ru/articles/id/4047/

[Mv6]

Just wait until Russia starts fighting back. Referring to these UN, US sanctions...

 

This is far from over.

 

Putin sees a all bark no bite US and a weak UN.

Edited March 22, 2014 by Mv6

[Svip]

The last time the UN was strong was during the Second World War.

[K^2]

Just wait until Russia starts fighting back. Referring to these UN, US sanctions...

With... what? They can cut the gas supply to Europe, but wait, that's quarter of their revenue.

[Moth]

The last time the UN was strong was during the Second World War.

Yep. I await the time that the UN becomes the League of Nations 2.0. It's pretty close right now.

[SparkleCalibreDF]

 

Just wait until Russia starts fighting back. Referring to these UN, US sanctions...

With... what? They can cut the gas supply to Europe, but wait, that's quarter of their revenue.

 

At least, try to read wikipedia. Even if most of their military tech is outdated, they still have sh*ttons of it, especially nukes. Russians think of themselves as superior nation and live in their own world, they won't miss a chance to use all those nukes.

[Moth]

they won't miss a chance to use all those nukes.

Sure they would. The moment they use even a single one of those nukes, their nation becomes a nation of glass.

[GTA_stu]

 

they won't miss a chance to use all those nukes.

Sure they would. The moment they use even a single one of those nukes, their nation becomes a nation of glass.

 

Ah yes, teenage American males. They'd spunk Russia into oblivion.

[Moth]

 

 

they won't miss a chance to use all those nukes.

Sure they would. The moment they use even a single one of those nukes, their nation becomes a nation of glass.

 

Ah yes, teenage American males. They'd spunk Russia into oblivion.

 

They're going to cover Russia in semen?

[GTA_stu]

How else is it gonna turn into glass?

[Geralt of Rivia]

How else is it gonna turn into glass?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtObF8fo2dQ

[K^2]

At least, try to read wikipedia. Even if most of their military tech is outdated, they still have sh*ttons of it, especially nukes. Russians think of themselves as superior nation and live in their own world, they won't miss a chance to use all those nukes.

Nukes, seriously? First of all, it's not like we haven't discussed it in this thread already. But lets summarize. Soviet Union relied on ICBMs that required constant maintenance, and most of them have been neglected through the 90s. Various estimates and many failed test launches conducted by Russia suggest about 10%-20% of the nukes they have can actually be delivered to targets. Of these, a large chunk are going to be taken out on liftoff from Europe, Japan, and Alaska. China is a wild card, if they decide to help, very few of Russian ICBMs are actually going to make it out of the atmo. But you can't count on that. Among the remaining warheads, some will be shot down on re-entry, protecting capitols and major military bases.

 

Don't get me wrong. This still going to hit several large cities in US and Europe. It's going to hurt. But it wouldn't end the targeted nations. In contrast, Russia would get completely wiped out by nuclear strikes from, well, just about everyone but China. There is not going to be a Russia after that.

 

If you think that it's something that Russia is going to go for, you are disconnected from reality.

 

 

And then we look at the rest of their military. They have tactical nukes, which they might be willing to use, but they need to be in position to use them first. Regardless of who strikes first, NATO isn't going to fight Russia on the ground early on, and Russia has no air force that can compete with modern aircraft. Russian aircraft will be destroyed on the first day. On the second day, NATO aviation is going to start picking out Russian armor and military objects from the air, assisted by cruise missile strikes. Then actual ground fighting might start, by which point Russia would be down to troops with no air or heavy support.

 

Again, this is going to cost NATO forces a lot of lives. They will think many times before starting something like this. But again, for Russia, that would be complete devastation. And again, if you think that's something Russia can possibly threaten Europe or US with, you have zero understanding of reality.

 

So yeah, the only reason Russia gets away with what they are doing is gas. That's all they have to threaten Europe with, and even then, they'd be cutting the branch they are sitting on.

[Eutyphro]

This idea of a battle of nukes is insanity, and NATO going into Russia to topple Putin and taking the risk of a significant part of the world being blown up, they would be among the biggest lunatics in world history.

[Mv6]

Guys no one will nuke anyone.

 

 

 

Ask yourselves, why are all these sanctions being imposed on Russia? Everyone was ready to jump the gun on Syria or Libya.

 

But with Russia they want to impose sanctions? Civil war and invading a countries sovereignty are two very different things..... i know.

 

Seems to me some nations know who they can play ball with and those who can't.

 

Russia is going to do whatever they want and no nation or union(not because of nukes) will stop them.

Edited March 23, 2014 by Mv6

[Geralt of Rivia]

Guys no one will nuke anyone.

 

 

 

Ask yourselves, why are all these sanctions being imposed on Russia? Everyone was ready to jump the gun on Syria or Libya.

 

But with Russia they want to impose sanctions? Civil war and invading a countries sovereignty are two very different things..... i know.

 

Seems to me some nations know who they can play ball with and those who can't.

 

Russia is going to do whatever they want and no nation or union(not because of nukes) will stop them.

Russia would get clobbered by NATO alone, and I'm sure the EU would be dragged into it one way or another.

 

And you're right, Civil War and invading a country you signed a treaty with saying you wouldn't invade is different, which is the point of the sanctions. Putin's crazy, he's severely hurt his economy, among other things, over something that didn't need to happen.

[Mv6]

Let's see how many sanctions the economy can withstand.

[Geralt of Rivia]

Let's see how many sanctions the economy can withstand.

Well, it's not doing well so far. Putin's gotta ask billionaires for money. The ruble is doing pretty bad. So far, not so good. I hope Crimea was worth it.

[HeLennon]

Russian troops poised to 'run' into Moldova, Nato commander warns

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/moldova/10717260/Russian-troops-poised-to-run-into-Moldova-Nato-commander-warns.html

[Shmoopy]

I don't know what the Ukrainian opposition was expecting from joining Europe , it was a bad decision to oppose their president - despite that he had a golden toilet in his bathroom - who knew that there is no country that can maintain the good economical state of his country than Russia , they should have thought twice before going rebel and causing 50 fatalities on both sides fighting for an absurd cause , and therefore avoiding this mess . They lost the Crimea now and their lovely Europe cant do sh*t about it

Edited March 23, 2014 by Manfred Von Karma

[sivispacem]

it was a bad decision to oppose their president

On what measurably grounds? He clearly wasn't perceived to be acting in the best interests of the people, otherwise you wouldn't have seen a revolution would you?

 

 

- despite that he had a golden toilet in his bathroom - who knew that there is no country that can maintain the good economical state of his country than Russia

Says who? The strength of Russia's domestic economy is vastly over-stated by pro-Kremlin sources. They're actually in a fairly dire economic state. Perhaps Russia should get their own house in order before interfering in the economic affairs of other states. You've already pointed out that the previous regime was corrupt- this isn't particularly surprising- and Yanukovych's government made precisely no impact on political corruption despite that being his primary mandate. Instead, he used his power to imprison the leaders of other parties and establish an effective police state.

 

I don't disagree with the idea that Russia has the capability to understand the economic issues faced by Ukraine better than many nations in Western Europe do, but Russia also has a vested interest in maintaining hegemony over Ukraine and will act with this interest in mind before actually going any way to help the Ukrainian economy. Bringing Ukraine further into the European fold might allow them to benefit from the experiences of other historically Eastern bloc nations who are economically prospering as part of the EU.

 

 

they should have thought twice before going rebel and causing 50 fatalities on both sides fighting for an absurd cause , and therefore avoiding this mess

Hang on a minute here, the violence was instigated by the Ukrainian government at the direct behest of Russia. There's a significant amount of evidence suggesting that it was on Moscow's advice that Yanukovych began deploying snipers on a mandate to use lethal force. It was also at Moscow's behest that the Berkut units fire-bombed buildings used by protesters, planting "smoking gun" evidence of the construction of incendiary devices and then using the forensic investigations after the fires to claim that the protesters were building explosives. The entire situation could have been peacefully resolved had it not been for Russia's intervention; and you think this nation has the best interests of Ukraine and her economy at heart?

[Shmoopy]

and you think this nation has the best interests of Ukraine and her economy at heart?

I think that its better for Ukraine to stay under the wing of Russia , corrupt government or not , interested in Ukraine's economy or not , it doesn't matter . What matters to me is the good for the country in the long term , the time insurrection of and rebellion was over with the French/Spanish revolution , this is the 21st century , you cant revolt on one of the 5 great powers

 

Edited March 23, 2014 by Manfred Von Karma

[Raavi]

 

and you think this nation has the best interests of Ukraine and her economy at heart?

I think that its better for Ukraine to stay under the wing of Russia , corrupt government or not , interested in Ukraine's economy or not , it doesn't matter . What matters to me is the good for the country in the long term.

 

You have got to be trolling, right? Ukraine under Russia is the very definition of regressive, both in the short and long term. Their economy will crumble, just as Russia's economy is slowly but surely doing now. You don't board a sinking ship.

[sivispacem]

 

and you think this nation has the best interests of Ukraine and her economy at heart?

I think that its better for Ukraine to stay under the wing of Russia

 

Good for you. Opinions are so much more important than actual, logical arguments, aren't they.

 

Here's a question: why?

[K^2]

I don't know what the Ukrainian opposition was expecting from joining Europe

They weren't. The point was never to join Europe. Ukraine's interest is independence.

 

I think that its better for Ukraine to stay under the wing of Russia , corrupt government or not , interested in Ukraine's economy or not , it doesn't matter . What matters to me is the good for the country in the long term

And it is in their interest to stay under a corrupt puppet government of a no less corrupt Russia? A country which is going downhill so fast, that the only way their government sees of holding on to power is turning it into North Korea?

 

I don't think you have absolutely any idea of internal situation in either of these two countries.