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acmilano

Military Crisis in Ukraine

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iiGh0STt

already been posted focker.

Is there any live news coverage outside of cable television? free streaming on the net? I tried BBC but it never loads.

I mean video. live video.

Edited by iiGh0STt

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Moth

If he is dead, wouldn't be surprised if the Russians did it and then going to blame the west for the death. A single air bubble in the blood stream, and you are dead.

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Geralt of Rivia

 

Our good friend, Viktor Yanukovich, seems to be dead (Unconfirmed, of course): http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zhsv7/unconfirmed_report_that_viktor_yanukovich_has/

 

My guess is bullsh*t, but hey, post anything and everything, yeah?

An accurate source Reddit is not.

Except for the fact that they just post things from the BBC and the like, you know, credible sources...

 

Anyway, Ukrainian Commanders are apparently getting blackmailed to defect: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zhumh/ukraine_military_commanders_say_they_are_being/

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Moth

 

Our good friend, Viktor Yanukovich, seems to be dead (Unconfirmed, of course): http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zhsv7/unconfirmed_report_that_viktor_yanukovich_has/

 

My guess is bullsh*t, but hey, post anything and everything, yeah?

An accurate source Reddit is not.

 

If you click the title of the reddit thread, the actual source is linked to.

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I cucked Alex Jones

 

 

Our good friend, Viktor Yanukovich, seems to be dead (Unconfirmed, of course): http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zhsv7/unconfirmed_report_that_viktor_yanukovich_has/

 

My guess is bullsh*t, but hey, post anything and everything, yeah?

An accurate source Reddit is not.

Except for the fact that they just post things from the BBC and the like, you know, credible sources...

 

Anyway, Ukrainian Commanders are apparently getting blackmailed to defect: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zhumh/ukraine_military_commanders_say_they_are_being/

 

Might as well use a Youtube post or a Facebook status as a source.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=Viktor+Yanukovich&oq=Viktor+Yanukovich&aqs=chrome..69i57.455500j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8#q=Viktor+Yanukovych&tbm=nws&tbs=qdr:h

 

See anything about his death?

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Geralt of Rivia

I'm just posting anything and everything.

 

Just because some stuff doesn't work out, doesn't mean it's not a credible source. If that were the case, then no news site would be credible right now, because the Ultimatum turned out to be bullsh*t.

 

This is the most credible you're gonna get.

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I cucked Alex Jones

 

 

Our good friend, Viktor Yanukovich, seems to be dead (Unconfirmed, of course): http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zhsv7/unconfirmed_report_that_viktor_yanukovich_has/

 

My guess is bullsh*t, but hey, post anything and everything, yeah?

An accurate source Reddit is not.

 

If you click the title of the reddit thread, the actual source is linked to.

 

The article it links to's source is a facebook post. I stand vindicated.

Edited by Nipperkins
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Svip

As I suspected, the ultimatum was bullsh*t. It didn't make sense for Russia to deny an ultimatum if they had actually made one. And if they had, then denied it, it would make even less sense to follow up on it.

 

I suspect either someone duped the Ukrainians or someone at the defence ministry wasn't thinking or deliberately lying.

 

Russian forces have also been holding military exercises near Ukraine's borders, but now Mr Putin has ordered them back to base, the Kremlin says.

 

According to the BBC. Either they are ending the military exercises as a sign of restraint, or they are preparing them. Only time will tell.

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Doc Rikowski

Putin's press conference made all Western leaders look like a bunch of hysterical bitches. :D

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Der_Don

According to Putin, the military forces in Crimea are not Russian troops but local self-defence-units. Hard to believe...

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sivispacem

Putin's press conference made all Western leaders look like a bunch of hysterical bitches. :D

I have a real hard time believing that you aren't a Russian apologist with comments like this. Regardless of how Putin held himself in his conference, it's clear that he's in violation of international law as well as several regional accords and treaties. It's also obvious to any external observer that absolutely nothing he says on the topic can be treated as honest or accurate, given that he effectively invaded Crimea whilst denying the presence of his troops despite it being fairly obvious that the invaders were Russian special forces units.

 

In fact I would go as far as to say he's made himself look like a mentally unstable third-world despot. He's invaded the territory of a sovereign nation with no other justification than not liking the direction a popular protest movement seeks to move the country in. In the long term I'm doubtful that his decision to mobilise forces in Ukraine will have anything other than negative long-term consequences for Russia. If he holds on to Crimea and makes no further movement on objectives he's only served to rile up a government supported by the West at great financial cost. If he succeeds in instigating a violent reaction from the Ukrainian military he's not going to look like a legitimate defender no matter how hard he tries; if he strikes first he'll look even more like a despot. Either way the Ukrainian military is strong enough, well-equipped enough and large enough to inflict severe casualties on the Russian military- they have the strategic advantage that comes with defending their nation as well as operational intelligence and C2 support from the West. They can probably maintain air superiority over the Ukrainian mainland for long enough to engage in close air support against Russian forces in Crimea, can outrange Russian mobile SAMs in Crimea with their fixed ones and have a fairly sizeable arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles that could be used to target Russian C2 infrastructure and sites of military importance- at such short ranges the chance of successful interception is unlikely.

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Stephan90

According to Putin, the military forces in Crimea are not Russian troops but local self-defence-units. Hard to believe...

 

Yesterday, I read on welt.de that already 16,000 additional Russian soldiers entered Ukranian territory since the beginning of the crisis.

 

Even If Putin steps back immediately, the damage for Russia's economy and image is done. Half of the consumer goods in Russia are imported. Many rich Russians have money and estates in Europe and North America. Everything can be confiscated if Putin starts a war.

Edited by Stephan90

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Der Süden

According to Putin, the military forces in Crimea are not Russian troops but local self-defence-units. Hard to believe...

Yes, hard to believe. There's even a video showing one of those units admitting he is Russian, that he doesn't know why they don't wear any insignia and that they are on a secret mission.

 

Couldn't find it completely in English, but at least the journalist and the soldier talk in English.

 

http://wap.bild.de/-34916808.bild.html

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Svip

 

Putin's press conference made all Western leaders look like a bunch of hysterical bitches. :D

I have a real hard time believing that you aren't a Russian apologist with comments like this. Regardless of how Putin held himself in his conference, it's clear that he's in violation of international law as well as several regional accords and treaties. It's also obvious to any external observer that absolutely nothing he says on the topic can be treated as honest or accurate, given that he effectively invaded Crimea whilst denying the presence of his troops despite it being fairly obvious that the invaders were Russian special forces units.

 

In fact I would go as far as to say he's made himself look like a mentally unstable third-world despot. He's invaded the territory of a sovereign nation with no other justification than not liking the direction a popular protest movement seeks to move the country in.

 

 

Let's not forget, that Crimea has a Russian majority and a lot of them have been looking for an opportunity with closer ties to Russia.

 

In addition, the new Ukrainian government does have ultra-nationalists quite central in power (the new deputy prime minister is from one of the two far-right parties). In addition, last week, the new government passed a repeal of a language law that permitted the official status of other languages in Ukraine in regions where an ethnicity was above 10% (so Hungarian in the South West and Russian in the East). However, the interim president did veto the repeal, arguing it is not in Ukraine's interest.

 

Russians, both in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and in Russia, fear the possible treatments of local Russians by the new Ukrainian government.

 

Putin's argument that Viktor Yanukovych is the legitimate president, with the arguments that he was ousted not in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution, is sort of weak tea to me. A revolution tends not to oust leaders in accordance with constitutions. Sort of the definition, in fact. Of course, Putin views it as a coup d'état rather than a revolution, because there is unlikely to be a change to the constitution (although they did agree on going back to 2004 constitution two weeks ago, but that was with the former president Yanukovych, so who knows what's happening to that plan).

 

At least Putin is honest enough that Viktor Yanukovych has no future politically in Ukraine.

Edited by Svip
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sivispacem

The fact there are large numbers of Russian sympathisers in the East does not offer a defence of Russia's actions. There are countries around the world that have provinces consisting of citizens from other ethnicities or historical origins, such a tenuous connection isn't a justification for a use of force under the laws of war. The debate over whether Crimea should have ever been part of Ukraine is an interesting one but is entirely separate.

 

The part I find least fathomable is the allegation that the Russian presence is to protect Russian-speaking citizens. It's totally counterintuitive given that these citizens have not been targets of any kind of reprisal or discrimination and the Russian intervention on their apparent behalf is only likely to inflame tensions elsewhere in the country. It's also worth pointing out that many of those who were protesting in the East on Friday and Saturday were identified as Russian by nationality rather than Ukrainian: that is, the violence that is being used as the pretext for hanging the threat of a wider invasion over the Ukrainian government's head was instigated by Russian citizens bussed over the border likely on the orders of the Kremlin. Remember the footage of the man waving the Russian flag above the town hall of one of the Eastern towns? He identified himself as a Muscovite to Associated Press.

 

Interesting to note that, according to comments released by RUSI to the BBC, some of their Russian experts have confirmed K^2 and I's comments about materiel only available to Russian special forces being present amongst supposed "militia" members.

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Doc Rikowski

 

Putin's press conference made all Western leaders look like a bunch of hysterical bitches. :D

I have a real hard time believing that you aren't a Russian apologist with comments like this.

 

Well I'm not and I stand by my opinion that Western leaders are coming out as hypocritical and hysterical idiots in the whole situation while I see a calm, strong, clever man leading Russia.

They are all sh*tting in their pants cause their hands are tied by their own hypocrisy and they are all praying that Putin somehow slows down and give them a reason to stop worrying and blabbering.

Then, personally, if I had to choose between two wrongs (West and East), as a European, I feel closer to Russia and Russians than to USA and Americans.

Europe should cooperate much more with his neighbour Russia than with some superpower on the other side of the Ocean.

USA might feel closer to UK culture and politics but for me USA is culturally and politically as far from me as China or any other far away country.

But that's just me. And I'm nobody. ;)

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Svip

Putin's press conference indicates a man sure of himself to form a narrative. If the 'militia' truly wasn't Russian soldiers, why is he just waving them off, almost as an aside? If they really weren't Russian soldiers, then the militia is hurting Russia's international standing and negotiation position in the conflict; surely Russia would be more pressed to tell them to leave, rather than indirectly supporting them.

 

Of course, even Russians I've spoken to believe them to be Russian soldiers. And I most definitely believe they are. Because how could such a large and well-equipped militia suddenly appear?

 

I do believe one analysis I read to be rather accurate. Putin is likely to part 'with less than he conquered', so he seems like a 'reasonable guy'.

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sivispacem

Doc, the West could respond aggressively but it's not in their interest to. It's got nothing to do with hypocrisy (I'm noting a persistent over-use of that terms in relation to any discussion of the West you embark on, almost as if you've been indoctrinated to connect the two eben when the context of your argument makes it superfluous or irrelevant, but I digress).

 

The problem is that Russia is acting in a way that the West- actually, the majority of the world- interprets to be irrational. The economic and political consequences of a Russian military intervention in Crimea are largely negative- the net result appears to have been uniting most of Ukraine around the existing interim leadership, hardening attitudes amongst the majority on the more populous, Westward-looking areas against Russia and increasing public support for Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU from "somewhat cool" to "actively encouraged". Aside from maintaining effective control over their Black Sea bases, Russia isn't doing anything that could be interpreted as beneficial in the long run. They're sacrificing a period of improving economic status and thawing relations with the West solely in a very public and transparent attempt to undermine the integrity and stability of a sovereign nation solely because their change in political direction undermine Russian hegemony in the region.

 

The absence of a coherent reaction is more a product of the absolute absence of what the West sees as logic and reason behind the Russian decision to intervene than any other aspect. Of course we all know better than to try and judge Russian actions by the standards of Western foreign and strategic policy but I honestly can't think of a single possible outcome of this that results in a positive net outcome for Russia. They either take Crimea at the cost of economic stability and a new enemy on their doorstep with a strongly pro-NATO, anti-Russian sentiment and substantial military capability and economic potential; they instigate a civil conflict that threatens their own security and unites a substantial portion of the educated Russian population against the Kremlin, or they start an outright war which, whilst they are likely to emerge victorious from in the long run, such a victory is likely to be Pyrrhic- with Russian military might and hard power projection capability bruised by an ongoing violent cross-border insurgency, a direct conflict with a military far more adept than any adversary they have faced since the fall of Nazi Germany and the backing of the two largest economic and strategic entities in the world, plus the world's biggest military consortium, in favour of their adversary.

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Svip

This is all about prestige for Putin. It's quite that simple. Which means, that hurting his prestige (such as excluding Russia from G8) is far more beneficial than any form of military might by the West. Economical sanctions will also hurt Western economies, though. But the sanctions they are speaking of so far are specific towards individuals.

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sivispacem

Economically, the place to hit Russia hardest (aside from the obvious financial services) is luxury goods and support services. Much of the technologically focused areas of their economy are reliant on services provided by Western support service providers. The problem is that the largest beneficiary of this- the oil and gas sector- is going to present serious ramifications for Eastern Europe.

 

Turfing Russia out of the G8, suspending international collaboration on issues of defence and security and placing limitations of the ability for state-affiliated enterprises- particularly those associated with Russia's defence industrial complex- to access capital tied up in Western financial services providers should hit them fairly hard.

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Doc Rikowski

Sivi, I just think the West is not going to do anything for real.

Whatever they'll do it will be just to feed it to the public to maintain a certain image towards public opinion.

They'll say they will do this and that and even say that they actually did it but then, when nobody is looking,

they'll talk with Putin and have some behind the scenes agreement just like 1962.

It's all a big show and the only ones thinking it's real are the average Joes of world's public opinion.

And personally, what I find hypocritical, it's just this ridiculous show.

I'd much prefer brutal honesty in foreign policies over this comedy.

The good old days of Carthago delenda est. ;)

And yes it's a show for Putin too but at least he seems a bit more direct in what he wants.

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theadmiral

This is all about prestige for Putin. It's quite that simple.

Yeah, once he gets 1000 prestige points and 500 piety he'll be able to reform the Orthodox Church and toggle the government one notch towards the right, then he'll have to start earning prestige all over again.

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Mr. House

 

This is all about prestige for Putin. It's quite that simple.

Yeah, once he gets 1000 prestige points and 500 piety he'll be able to reform the Orthodox Church and toggle the government one notch towards the right, then he'll have to start earning prestige all over again.

 

Yeah, but this will give him a relations over time debuff, slowing his annexation speed of Crimea.

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theadmiral

Yeah, but this will give him a relations over time debuff, slowing his annexation speed of Crimea.

 

 

Well, surely he's readying his chancellor to go over there to conduct cultural conversion to speed all that up.

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Mr. House

 

Yeah, but this will give him a relations over time debuff, slowing his annexation speed of Crimea.

 

 

Well, surely he's readying his chancellor to go over there to conduct cultural conversion to speed all that up.

 

I dunno. I think he's used all his diplomats up on a fabricate claim CB in Latvia. If he isn't careful, Russia will have some serious overextension and revolt risk!

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Svip

You are confusing Europa Universalis IV and Crusader Kings II. Get it together!

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