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acmilano

Military Crisis in Ukraine

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Jimmy_Leppard

Some countries really need to draw a forest and get lost in it.

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Frank Brown

 

BTW guys does Russian army did anything(killed or beat anyone?) since they "invaded" in Ukraine? Why every time Russia do something like that is a threat to world? It's sad to see how social media manipulating both sides to make them angry at eachother.

As K^2 notably and others have pointed out, Russia is doing all it can to provoke the Ukrainians to draw first blood, after which it could argue all subsequent actions are in self-defence. So far the Ukrainian military, government and people have shown remarkable restraint.

 

 

I don't know anyone who would even think that argument held any weight.

 

"We invaded your country and didn't fire a shot! They shot us! SELF-DEFENSE."

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Moth

 

 

BTW guys does Russian army did anything(killed or beat anyone?) since they "invaded" in Ukraine? Why every time Russia do something like that is a threat to world? It's sad to see how social media manipulating both sides to make them angry at eachother.

As K^2 notably and others have pointed out, Russia is doing all it can to provoke the Ukrainians to draw first blood, after which it could argue all subsequent actions are in self-defence. So far the Ukrainian military, government and people have shown remarkable restraint.

 

 

I don't know anyone who would even think that argument held any weight.

 

"We invaded your country and didn't fire a shot! They shot us! SELF-DEFENSE."

 

Well yeah. But if the Ukrainians fought back, Russia would fight back harder. Then say hello to the new province or state of Russia.

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Max

 

 

BTW guys does Russian army did anything(killed or beat anyone?) since they "invaded" in Ukraine? Why every time Russia do something like that is a threat to world? It's sad to see how social media manipulating both sides to make them angry at eachother.

As K^2 notably and others have pointed out, Russia is doing all it can to provoke the Ukrainians to draw first blood, after which it could argue all subsequent actions are in self-defence. So far the Ukrainian military, government and people have shown remarkable restraint.

 

 

I don't know anyone who would even think that argument held any weight.

 

"We invaded your country and didn't fire a shot! They shot us! SELF-DEFENSE."

 

Whilst I agree with you, that is how the Kremlin will argue their case: 'Actions taken to protect ethnic Russians in the region from an illegitimate government, and then self-defence in the face of Ukrainian aggression'.

Edited by Max

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Geralt of Rivia

Russia deploys 3500 troops and heavy equipment near Polish and Lithuanian borders: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zfpx9/russia_deploys_3500_troops_and_heavy_equipment_on/

 

That's not good. Even if it is just for show.

 

EDIT:

 

Some more:

 

A convoy of Russian troops forcibly went through a border post around Kerch: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zgov9/several_buses_and_trucks_with_russian_troops/

 

EU gives Russia 48 hours to return troops to barracks in Crimea: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zgoj6/ukraine_crisis_eu_gives_russia_48hour_deadline_to/

 

Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych has asked Russia to use military force in Ukraine: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zgs5m/ukraines_ousted_president_viktor_yanukovych_has/

 

The more I hear, the more worried I become. This has become more than just a simple annex. Russia is wading into some dangerous territory.

Edited by TheMasterfocker

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GunWrath

Hey, why so much commotion? Atleast it's not the US invading another country. sh*t, let it happen.

 

 

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Geralt of Rivia

Hey, why so much commotion? Atleast it's not the US invading another country. sh*t, let it happen.

 

 

Really? You don't see the bad in this?

 

You do not see the big deal?

Edited by TheMasterfocker

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Davo the Assassin

Russia deploys 3500 troops and heavy equipment near Polish and Lithuanian borders: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zfpx9/russia_deploys_3500_troops_and_heavy_equipment_on/

 

That's not good. Even if it is just for show.

 

EDIT:

 

Some more:

 

A convoy of Russian troops forcibly went through a border post around Kerch: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zgov9/several_buses_and_trucks_with_russian_troops/

 

EU gives Russia 48 hours to return troops to barracks in Crimea: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zgoj6/ukraine_crisis_eu_gives_russia_48hour_deadline_to/

 

Ukraine's former President Viktor Yanukovych has asked Russia to use military force in Ukraine: http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1zgs5m/ukraines_ousted_president_viktor_yanukovych_has/

 

The more I hear, the more worried I become. This has become more than just a simple annex. Russia is wading into some dangerous territory.

Poland to the rescue!

 

http://m.imgur.com/gallery/smJnMoT

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GunWrath

Conflicts have happened since before our time.. this is nothing new.

 

I've had my hand in my country's current conflicts, the only good I've seen it do is provide a bit of 'western culture' in the middle-east among other small things such as schooling, etc. But anyways, I don't see good nor bad in such things these days. sh*t is going to happen regardless.. and plus I'm not Ukranian nor Russian, so I could give a sh*t less. But that's my opinion.. don't crucify me for it.

 

All you can do is sit to the side and watch what happens man. If you want peace, prepare for war.

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iiGh0STt

the US is f*cked up :lol:

 

but most people are still too comfortable to riot.

if our economic inequality continues on its current trend, we could certainly see very similar demonstrations at some point in our neck of the woods.

I believe this will not happen. Because of reasons you already cited. Americans are comfortable, and the ones who would stand up to tyrants and unconstitutional acts would be labeled as outlaws or criminals. Overall the American population still follows everything the news says, and believes it too.

 

I would gladly be the one to assemble and be labeled an outlaw, the same way my family and forefathers did before.

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Geralt of Rivia

Just because conflicts happen doesn't mean that they should just be shrugged off like it's nothing.

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iiGh0STt

Conflicts have happened since before our time.. this is nothing new.

 

I've had my hand in my country's current conflicts, the only good I've seen it do is provide a bit of 'western culture' in the middle-east among other small things such as schooling, etc. But anyways, I don't see good nor bad in such things these days. sh*t is going to happen regardless.. and plus I'm not Ukranian nor Russian, so I could give a sh*t less. But that's my opinion.. don't crucify me for it.

 

All you can do is sit to the side and watch what happens man. If you want peace, prepare for war.

sadly, we did not choose to provide western culture to the middle east, we were told to. Any soldier will tell you they could care less about what goes on over there, and if they have been there, they mean it.

 

best thing for Americans right now? mind our own f*cked up business.

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Dingdongs

 


 

Thanks for the info on Kenneth Waltz. In theory, yes it is possible for them to engage in limited, conventional and open conflict with one another without the use of nuclear weapons. But I believe that the fear of escalation - which happens quite fast in open, conventional wars - with the possibility of using nuclear weapons is too much for any sensible politician on either side to risk.

Like I said before, it is not an outright impossibility, but it just makes direct open engagement so unlikely that it is better not considered at all. And prior historical events prove my point - not once have any nuclear armed countries engaged each other directly and openly, even in the worst crises of the 44-year cold war.

But they didn't engage themselves directly because there were no situations presented that would result in a limited, direct engagement. If Russian troops rolled into Vietnam, do you think the US would just pull out because they're afraid of Nukes? Or would they return fire and work to push the Russian forces back?

 

 


Please do correct me if I am wrong, but according to the conductiveness of the international system to war, no two nuclear-armed states have ever directly and openly engaged each other in direct(conventiona) and open (official) conflict. India and Pakistan have had a long history of conflict over Kashmir, but this stopped when both got nuclear weapons. Same for the Sino-Russian border clashes, or the Sino-Indian ones.

War as a whole continues just as always, but nuclear-armed states now use proxies, and rarely deniability to distance themselves from direct engagement with another nuclear-armed state.

You can't just look at all of those conflicts and say that because historically over 40 years there was not a conventional war, there won't ever be one. You are turning nuclear deterrence theory into an absolute when it is in fact far from being absolute. India and Pakistan example doesn't stand up to muster in this case. These are countries with comparatively small nuclear arsenals and are bordering one another. Thus, there is no feasible way for the two of them to fight a conventional, limited war without there being the involvement of nuclear weapons. The same thing applies to the other examples. When it comes to the US deploying combat troops to Europe to push Russia out of a particular country, nuclear weapons become irrelevant (unless Putin starts deploying them as a combat weapon).

 

 

 

 

 


Good point. I personally do agree with you on that. But it just reinforces my point that nuclear-armed Russia won't directly and openly perform an act of war against the nuclear-armed US (put Kerry in danger/harm him).

That doesn't reinforce it at all though... do you think the US would retaliate with nuclear weapons if Kerry died in a Russian attack on Kiev... no. It would engage in conventional war in retaliation, and probably launch retaliatory conventional missile strikes.

 

 

 

 

 


Again, I do completely agree with your analysis here. The issue is that even limited conflicts can escalate into all-out war and nuclear weapons deployment. It can end with one side just pulling back, but I believe no sensible politician would even consider entering such a slippery slope.

 

I'm sorry but if Putin launches a strike on the rest of the Ukraine, the only "sensible" thing to do would be to engage him militarily.

 

 

 

 

 


Regardless, back on topic, I still hold that it will be near-impossible for NATO to engage Russia directly,and I am willing to bet my bottom dollar on it.

Right now, yes. If Putin just stays with what he got in Crimea, then I agree with you. If this escalates, forget about it.

 

 

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GunWrath

We weren't exactly told to.. western culture was poured onto the middle east out of the marines, sailors and soldiers there. Our orders were simple, sit on your ass until hostile fire came. Any member involved in OEF or OIF will tell you that.

 

Best thing for Americans right now.. quit eating so much. We need to fend for ourselves for a change and not worry about political issues but that will never happen. Even when we do mind our own business, countries come knockin' for help.

 

Sadly, instead of being there for a year or two has turned into a conflict that is over a decade old.. modern Vietnam.

 

 

Just because conflicts happen doesn't mean that they should just be shrugged off like it's nothing.

 

Not exactly true.. I mean hell, should we react every time a country has a falling out with another? Nope. There's too many motives and politics involved to try and take sides man. In this case, let them settle sh*t themselves.. if not, let the UN take part or other organization's.

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Geralt of Rivia

There's a difference between a 'falling out' and an invasion that could possibly lead to World War 3 if Putin is as crazy as Germany is saying he is.

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Max

With respect to your military experience GW, I think you are gravely underestimating the geo-political significance of Ukraine, it is far more relevant to Europe, Russia and the US than Iraq or Afghanistan ever could be. Which is why this crisis is deserving of global attention.

Edited by Max

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GunWrath

I understand the need that there should be global attention, it's conflict. Every conflict ends up like that.. depends on the media's mood at the time. There's always politics involved, but there are far more worse things happening than this stand off.

 

Putin may have a dark past but he's not an ignorant person by any means. Every now and then a country has to bump their chest and this is Russian bumping.. it'll blow over. There's far too much involved.. just wait and see. ;)

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Doc Rikowski

West barks but will never bite in this crisis.

It is actually entertaining to read the news and the fake and outraged comments knowing nothing will be done. :D

The West will never accept to pay Ukraine's debt so it is much in their interest to let Putin take care of the whole thing.

Putin is really winning on all fronts.

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GunWrath

Yup, all about the almighty dollar.

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Geralt of Rivia

Nothing will be done because Ukraine isn't in the EU or NATO lol.

 

Now, if Ukraine was part of the EU or NATO...

Edited by TheMasterfocker

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GunWrath

Honestly, I hope nothing happens.. no need for lives lost over something like this but you can never tell.

 

I hope it ends peacefully and I'm leaning more towards that outcome.. let's just hope it happens.

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UtricularEwe001

Nothing will be done because Ukraine isn't in the EU or NATO lol.

 

Now, if Ukraine was part of the EU or NATO...

You are underestimating the Russian military might. Sure, it may not have the ability to invade EU, but its more than capable of defending its own territory from any nations, including US and NATO.

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acmilano

Well,the West lost its opportunity in 2008,if they accepted Ukraine and other eastern European countries in EU/NATO after Georgian war,situation would be different,but this situation and situation in 2008 shows how muchis USA and Western Europe really care about other countries. Just how much Russia cared about Serbia back in 1999,during the Kosovo War. US and Russia are basically the same, only care about their own interests.

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Geralt of Rivia

 

Nothing will be done because Ukraine isn't in the EU or NATO lol.

 

Now, if Ukraine was part of the EU or NATO...

You are underestimating the Russian military might. Sure, it may not have the ability to invade EU, but its more than capable of defending its own territory from any nations, including US and NATO.

 

I know that. What I'm saying is that nobody's doing anything because Ukraine isn't part of any alliance.

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Frantz Fuchs

 

Nothing will be done because Ukraine isn't in the EU or NATO lol.

 

Now, if Ukraine was part of the EU or NATO...

You are underestimating the Russian military might. Sure, it may not have the ability to invade EU, but its more than capable of defending its own territory from any nations, including US and NATO.

 

 

tbh I think apart from UK, France, and Germany, Russia would take Europe easily... (without US)

Edited by Frantz Fuchs

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Raavi

 

 

Nothing will be done because Ukraine isn't in the EU or NATO lol.

 

Now, if Ukraine was part of the EU or NATO...

You are underestimating the Russian military might. Sure, it may not have the ability to invade EU, but its more than capable of defending its own territory from any nations, including US and NATO.

 

 

tbh I think apart from UK, France, and Germany, Russia would take Europe easily... (without US)

 

 

There is one glaring error in that. If a NATO member state gets attacked, whole of NATO gets involved and they (including US) would wipe the floor with Russia.

Edited by Raavi

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Geralt of Rivia

Isn't Poland part of the EU and NATO? That's, like, 40 countries vs. Russia and their allies (I don't know who'd fight with Russia. I know China is close with Russia, but I don't know if they'd fight two different alliances).

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Frantz Fuchs

Yeah it was a hypothetical scenario. There would be no winners in NATO vs Russia, as nukes would be used without a question.

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I cucked Alex Jones

Yeah it was a hypothetical scenario. There would be no winners in NATO vs Russia, as nukes would be used without a question.

No they wouldn't.

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acmilano

But how many of those countries would actually participate and how many would just send token batallion?

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