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theadmiral

General North Korea discussion

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Typhus

Mkay, why is the burden of 'moderation' not on Un's shoulders?

What are you implying? That America's foreign policy should endeavor to meet bombastic rhetoric with bombastic rhetoric? If that's what you believe, say so openly.

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Chiarii

Dear God you're evasive. I asked a simple question. I just wanted to know why you felt it's America that needs to tone it down and not NK. This country has been threatening nuclear war for years. Trump stepped onto the scene 11 months ago. Get real.

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Typhus

Dear God you're evasive. I asked a simple question. I just wanted to know why you felt it's America that needs to tone it down and not NK. This country has been threatening nuclear war for years. Trump stepped onto the scene 11 months ago. Get real.

How am I being evasive? I have consistently opposed Trump's policy of brinkmanship in relation to North Korea, and expressed my reasons for doing so. You, on the other hand, seem to have no platform on the issue besides "North Korea started it, so we should poke at them."

Does my opinion on this mean I support Kim Jong Un? Does it mean that I think the North Korean regime is somehow better than the American government? No. Of course not. But I am still not eager to cheer on the wilful slaughter of an entire people without first exhausting every peaceful alternative.

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Uncle Sikee Atric

Dear God you're evasive. I asked a simple question. I just wanted to know why you felt it's America that needs to tone it down and not NK. This country has been threatening nuclear war for years. Trump stepped onto the scene 11 months ago. Get real.

 

Threatening nuclear war and actually undertaking nuclear war are two very different things....

 

In truth, NK has been this threatening for years, only The Don seems to think it's an aggressive stance, when in reality it's fairly clear NK wants nukes for defensive measures only. They know if the balloon goes up the existance of NK will be measured in minutes, so why bother? Nukes are cheaper and easier to maintain as a threat than the cost of maintaining the troop numbers NK has, so this is why it wants them, not to launch a war.

 

Both sides need to tone down their stance, not just one.

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Triple Vacuum Seal

And now they have the capability to strike continental America anyway, so you can't really attack them without some retaliation that may end up reaching American soil.

 

Actually they can't retaliate. NK doesn't have second strike capabilities. It's also not clear whether or not their missiles can accurately strike at the distance claimed. Nor is it clear they have miniaturized a nuclear warhead to fit on such a missile.

 

All we know is that they've successfully created a nuclear explosion and successfully launched some rockets without nukes on them. If NK had strategic nuclear capabilities, which are something entirely different, then they would have been more than happy to show them off. Nonetheless, you're still right about war not being a viable option without NK doing something incredibly stupid and unfathomable first.

 

 

I asked a simple question. I just wanted to know why you felt it's America that needs to tone it down and not NK.

 

Though I can't speak for Typhus, one good reason is that it makes the US look weak. Even when the US last actually nuked somebody, our leader didn't talk as much sh*t. A stern warning was issued, and the bombs fell. If Trump's threats were serious, then he wouldn't need to repeat them in various ways.

 

 

Un's regime is collapsing domestically. His antics are a desperate grasp for recognition among world powers and his subjects. Trump is giving him that recognition and being counterproductive in the process. He's not balancing the attention to NK's might with any mitigating actions that haven't already been taken by previous administrations. Face it. Someone as clueless as Trump was not supposed to be president for this phase of the conflict and we are seeing why.

Edited by Triple Vacuum Seal

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Typhus

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/01/kim-jong-un-north-korea-nuclear-arsenal

Is this just bluster? Or do you think it's genuine?

What really fascinates me is that a nuclear armed North Korea may actually prove itself to be more diplomatic and level-headed, as they have some measure of security from US intervention. Perhaps wishful thinking, but any de-escalation would be welcome news.

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Constant K

I hope it is true for the same reasons but it will also affect Japan and South Korea in the long term. Certainly no denuclearization then. How China reacts to Japan and South Korea achieving N capabilities to balance with N.Korea is another question.

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Uncle Sikee Atric

The ability to 'strike any part of the US' seems a little too much, but they will be able to eliminate / cause massive devastation to any part of South Korea and that alone is enough to act as a total nuclear deterrent in the event of a full invasion of DRPK soil.

 

I think that's the problem with most observers, but the situation seems to have changed little with North Korea now possessing nuclear weapons. The fact that South Korea has now seized a second oil supply ship as the 'apparent' sanctions flouting situation continues to develop, make things still very tense on the Korean peninsula....

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Devdevi45

In my personal opinion NK-US is The start of WW3/end of the world knowing you have The whole damn NATO force going against NK China Russia and whatever other allies they have. I think its honna happen sooner or later but if it does I can already see martial law going intact and young boys/young men will be forced to join.

 

 

If Id have to guess where NK will nuke itd have to be Alaska then boom Automatic WW3.

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Tchuck

Key thing often missed in American media:

 

 

and also hopes for better ties with Seoul before the Winter Olympics

 

NK doesn't want to start a war. It seeks to prevent the US from invading it, as the US is wont to do. See the middle east and other incursions around the globe.

 

Both Koreas just want peace. South Korea is in a better position because it was backed by US money, and even though it suffered through military dictatorship for decades, it was able to get things done because of the money and support it received from the US. NK pretty much just got enough to survive, and had to make do with what it had in order to complement it. Paramount to its survival was the ability to stop the US from trying to invade it, and it achieved so at massive expense both of money and of manpower. But now it has, and now the US really can't touch it without starting something ridiculously stupid in the region that nobody truly wants.

 

Add to this the US' diminishing leadership of the free world, as seen with it threatening other free nations with sanctions and loss of monetary help if they voted against them in the Jerusalem vote at the UN, and you got NK pretty much in the spot it wants to be. It has no intention to attack SK or Japan, as it would be mighty stupid to do so. It has the means to prevent an all out US invasion, as they would definitely take down a large part of SK's population with it if the US decided to do so.

 

Now peace talks can begin. Both Koreas want peace, as told by Kim and by SK's new president. Only America is interested in conflict, so it can flex it muscles and get a direct border with China. But China isn't stupid, and neither is NK. If the US strikes first, they will be condemned by the entire world, they will lose support from the entire world, and the deaths of millions will be on their hand. It will be a failure of a war that will dwarf what happened at 'Nam. If NK strikes first, China won't be there to back them, and the rest of the world won't care.

 

It is now time for US' diplomacy to actually do the diplomatic thing, and oversee peace talks together with China.

 

But we all know that ain't gonna happen, specially with Trump in power and the joke of a foreign policy America has in place. They'd sooner sacrifice the entire Korean peninsula than try to talk peace.

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sivispacem

China and Russia wouldn't side with DPRK in a hot conflict. The Norks are seen as a convenient distraction to China and Russia but if push came to shove there's no way they'd actually fight on the side of the DPRK.

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Tchuck

North Korea reopens communication line with Seoul

 

Now, this is good news for the entire world. North Korea acting friendlier to South Korea, wanting to reconcile by reopening the lines after closing them down following the closure of a jointly operated factory a couple of years ago. It's good. Any steps towards peace is good.

 

Not for America, though:

 

 

The US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, questioned the wisdom of an inter-Korean dialogue unless it was to include a North Korean commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.

 

Basically no communication whatsoever unless NK decides to abandon nukes. This joke of an ambassador went so far as to say that the US wouldn't recognize any talk being held by the north and the south.

 

Which is great, it doesn't have to, SK and NK are both sovereigns, can decide whatever they want, and the US can go suck a bag of dicks. If this means the SK will move ever so slightly away from the US, all for the best.

 

China, however:

 

 

“China welcomes and supports North Korea and South Korea taking earnest efforts to treat this as an opportunity to improve mutual relations, promote the alleviation of the situation on the Korean peninsula and realise denuclearisation on the peninsula,” said the foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang.

 

This is the difference between a country that can do diplomacy and is focused on a peaceful solution to a conflict, and a country that has abandoned any semblance of diplomacy and acts like a spoiled toddler if it doesn't get its way, and is also aching for a war to fuel its economy.

 

This is good news. If America doesn't see it that way, they're welcome to leave the region.

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Tchuck

See? See! This is what f*cking happens when imperialist dogs stay the f*ck away from the region.

 

North, South Korea to march together under one flag at Winter Olympics

 

 

North and South Korean athletes will march together at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony under a unified flag, the South said Wednesday, in a diplomatic breakthrough following days of talks between the two countries.

The nations have also agreed to form a joint North and South Korean women's ice hockey team for the Games in Pyeongchang, which begin early next month, South Korea's unification ministry said.

 

If the imperialists weren't such sh*ts under Trump, and Obama, and Bush, and weren't threatening DPRK at every turn, then maybe this sort of dialogue could have been achieved months ago.

 

All this reinforces the assertion that DPRK doesn't want to attack anyone, and was always after the missiles as a way to guarantee itself against American aggression. Now that it has the missiles, and America can't do sh*t to them, they can begin talking with SK. The more SK crawls out from America's wings, the quicker peace can be achieved

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Mr_Rager

Was this expected at all? I know they had conversations recently at the border, but man this is quite the gesture, infront of the whole world.

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Purevil

Indeed.

 

The North wants America off the peninsula or at the very least a weak presence with little to no input on the reunification of both North and South Korea.

China and Russia wouldn't side with DPRK in a hot conflict. The Norks are seen as a convenient distraction to China and Russia but if push came to shove there's no way they'd actually fight on the side of the DPRK.

 

China will defend the North if it is attacked by the U.S. China see's the North as a buffer and it does not want America on it's door step.

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sivispacem

China will defend the North if it is attacked by the U.S.

No, it wouldn't. The disruption cause by Both Korea's unpredictability is beneficial to China as it blunts America's regional influence. But a direct or indirect conflict with the US is far more harmful to Chinese interests, ergo as a rational actor their staying out is the most likely outcome.

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G's Ah's

China also doesn't want unification of the Korean peninsular because it puts American bases and American military assets right on their borders. The North Koreans to them are useful idiots. They're not exactly the best companions (having a puppet government would be ideal for the Chinese), but the current situation suits the Chinese quite well.

 

Plus Xi Jinping can become mediator between Trump and Kim and portray himself as the Great Mediator. After all, if you're now the most powerful figure China has had since Mao, you're gonna want to make the most of the photo opportunities to cement in your growing cult of personality.

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SouthLand

Something i don't understand. For a country that have a "Military first" policy, their gear is useless. I mean look at those AK74 that have been modified in a ridiculous way, look at those goggles that look like they where made in the 80's....

 

3FA3FE3100000578-4449754-Images_from_an_

 

 

 

A country that makes billions of dollars a year just with the drug trafficking enterprise they have, and not only they can't make "decent" equipment but they get a very good rifle like the AK-74 and make it useless buy modifying it in the worse way they can.

 

 

 

Take a look at this video, they explain it very well:

 

 

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Svip

What's so hard to understand? They don't actually have the money to fund their military with better equipment, nor make it. Plus, they are funnelling all their money into nuclear weapons, because it's 'much cheaper' than conventional forces.

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sivispacem

Those "unique" AKs just look like they're equipped with PP-19 style helical mags.

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Tchuck

 

nuclear weapons, because it's 'much cheaper' than conventional forces.

 

Pretty much this. Why bother equipping your army with the latest tech, when you could spend less by building a handful of nukes, and guaranteeing you will never be attacked?

 

The best way to win a war is to avoid it happening. Deterrence means not having to spend all your budget on protecting your borders or against invaders.

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Purevil

China also doesn't want unification of the Korean peninsular because it puts American bases and American military assets right on their borders. The North Koreans to them are useful idiots. They're not exactly the best companions (having a puppet government would be ideal for the Chinese), but the current situation suits the Chinese quite well.

 

 

What makes you think American bases would be welcome by the North in a highly unlikely reunification peace deal?

 

It's true China uses the North to keep America paying but...

 

"In 1984, the Beijing Review provided China's view on Korean unification: "With regard to the situation on the Korean peninsula, China's position is clear: it is squarely behind the proposal of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea for tripartite (between the two Koreas and the United States) talks to seek a peaceful and independent reunification of Korea in the form of a confederation, free from outside interference. China believes this is the surest way to reduce tension on the peninsula."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification

 

 

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G's Ah's

The only time reunification will happen is through war. And China's interests in 1984 and 2018 are different, primarily because North Korea isn't as strong nor as stable as it was in the 1980's.

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Purevil

If China's interests are different to the ones held in 1984 you should update the Wiki.

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Svip

That's not how Wikipedia works. Wikipedia is not an analysis website, it's a collection of verifiable and relevant facts on a subject. The 1984 review is definitely relevant, because it is still China's official position. It is in China's interest to maintain a somewhat ambiguous position on the matter, so the Koreas and the US needs to second guess their moves on the peninsula.

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G's Ah's

Ambiguity also helps China because it would mean that both North Korea and the US would need to go through Beijing to get any meaningful stuff done. China being a mediator gives Beijing more international credibility. The fact that the Chinese keep giving North Korea missile parts and other blatantly illegal things is beside point.

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Twilight Sky

Can't help but feel like NK is up to something with all this buddy-buddying they are doing with SK. I think he's playing them for fools. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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Typhus

https://wintergames.ap.org/article/latest-n-and-s-korea-march-together-under-one-flag?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Sports

Athletes from North and South Korea marching under the same flag. It's still early days, of course, but this is very encouraging. Negotiation and dialogue are so important, and I am happy neither the North or South has allowed recent external actors to play them against each other.

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Tchuck

It was really, really great to see it, specially since some media networks were reporting that the deal was off and they would not be marching together anymore. I guess just imperialists trying to disrupt the event again.

 

Watched the whole thing live, and it was great to see them marching under one flag, and climbing up the steps to light the fire. If America stays out of it, could be the beginning of amends being made.

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Hmmm nice bike

Can't help but feel like NK is up to something with all this buddy-buddying they are doing with SK. I think he's playing them for fools. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Honestly, as much as I liked seeing the two Koreas united for that event (and as much as I disliked Mike Pence looking like a dickhead and doing almost exactly what he blasted football players for doing when they protested against police violence stateside), I also can't help but feel like there's some kind of ulterior motive. If it's to make the US look like a bunch of asses to SK, it probably worked (no thanks to Pence's little stunt). Maybe one goal is to send the US packing and get them off the peninsula. That's just me though, and like you said, I'd also hope that they aren't up to something bad. I'd rather see continued peace between them if possible. I think it's starting to become clear now that the US under the Trump Administration and South Korea under Moon have two different mindsets in terms of dealing with North Korea.

 

I'm curious to see now how the meet between Moon and Kim in North Korea goes, if Moon accepts the invitation. I've read some comments implying that Moon would be kidnapped or killed, but if North Korea wants stability on the peninsula, they obviously aren't going to have the South Korean leader killed on their turf. That would basically be suicide for their government.

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