DAN HOUSER would be stupid to announce X1/PS4/PC

[tenpennyisplainevil]

Great logic and a sensible business plan, good work on the topic

But I don't think R* will port V to next-gen. PS4 will have a means of backwards compatibility (requires you to rebuy the game digitally ), so R* will have V up and running on PS4 at least, and not for free either. It also takes a long time to port V, so IMO that's just wasting resources for VI.

Since this PS4 service will make use of digital copies, R* has a chance to cut costs on discs/boxes for the V port. Makes more sense to not port it, IMO.

[Vortexz0r]

Tl; dr

[saintsrow]

 

Great logic and a sensible business plan, good work on the topic 

But I don't think R* will port V to next-gen. PS4 will have a means of backwards compatibility (requires you to rebuy the game digitally  ), so R* will have V up and running on PS4 at least, and not for free either. It also takes a long time to port V, so IMO that's just wasting resources for VI.

Since this PS4 service will make use of digital copies, R* has a chance to cut costs on discs/boxes for the V port. Makes more sense to not port it, IMO.

I am expecting that Rockstar will -eventually- port GTAV to the XO and PS4, when those consoles -eventually- have enough of an installed base to make the projected GTAV sales worth the investment.

 

I do think that the "early adopters" who buy the next gen consoles in the first year after launch will be seriously jonesing for GTAV, as it will be the best game that they can buy for their new platforms. That will lead to a phenomenally large percentage of next gen owners also buying GTAV, when the port eventually becomes available.

 

[cp1dell]

I gotta say, the pics of that screenshot and gameplay trailer are eating me up right now. I want my game to play like that screen shot. So I wanna wait till PS4, but at the sametime, I really don't wanna wait to play the game.

The trailer vs. screenshot comparison has always been bogus. They are not the same moment nor is the lighting due to time of day or weather the same. Assuming the exploding house scene is entirely scripted, the time of the still from the trailer is 63 frames earlier than the time the screenshot was captured. This can be determined by the position of the window shutter falling from the top floor, which falls into the same position as seen in the screenshot. At the moment of the screenshot, the trailer uses a different camera angle and Trevor has already walked out of frame.

On top of that, one is a frame from a low-res video, while the other is a frozen capture from the game in high-res.

[Geralt of Rivia]

@Masterfocker I think you need to learn how to read. He is saying base on that information the Xbox one will sell more. But in reality there is more hate on Xbox One and there is also more people that bought PS3 which go against what he said.

Yeah. Based on the info, the Xbox One will sell more. It will if it goes the way the 360 went.

 

It doesn't matter about all the hate. The hate is 99% from retards who have no idea what they're talking about. The presentation was to ONLY talk about the specs, show off the console, and show what it can do as a multi-media device. Everyone, A.K.A. the retards, expected games and everything else that everyone with a brain knew wasn't coming.

 

DRM is also going to show up on SONY. They've already inadvertently confirmed it. When they said they're not doing DRM, but it's up to the developers, that translates to "There's gonna be DRM, but we're making it so you put the blame on the developers and not us." Remember the passes EA and Ubisoft had that made it so you can play online? The ones that every other company was about to follow up on? Ever wonder why they're dropping it? Because there's gonna be DRM on both consoles, as already confirmed by both Microsoft and SONY.

 

The hate also stems from the hardcore gamers who think consoles should be nothing but games. So when Microsoft showed something other than games, they flipped sh*t. They are also retards. I guarantee you they will all shut up once E3 hits and they show off their 8 new IP's and 15 exclusive games.

 

Every feature that people are hating on Xbox right now, are also on the PS4, SONY just hasn't given a straight-forward answer, while Microsoft has. Really, Microsoft is the better company right now. Remember when SONY put in the patent (not sure if patent, could be something else) to make it so used games wouldn't work on their new system? You're just lucky they scrapped that.

 

SONY hasn't even shown their console yet. Microsoft is ahead in this war right now. People with eyes for logic and sense will see that (ala, most people on this forum don't have that, including you)

 

Anyway, to get to my original point, Microsoft is going for a bigger audience, while SONY is still going for the smaller audience. Logic points to Xbox One selling more.

 

So no, I don't need to learn how to read. You need to learn to not be a SONY fanboy.

[UnderWeb]

I lol'd

 

[Raavi]

Ah forget it. Your conclusion, although based of off false data, is correct.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Raavi

[Dick Justice]

Rockstar games =/= Dan Houser

 

The Houser brothers are co-founders of Rockstar games; Dan is a producer and writer, Sam is the one who runs the business side of things. Kind of like the videogame version of the Coen Brothers.

[BlackNoise]

 

He is saying base on that information the Xbox one will sell more. But in reality there is more hate on Xbox One and there is also more people that bought PS3 which go against what he said.

Why did you choose to focus on that part? He's not even really talking about what console will sell more. You completely missed the point because you're being way too sensitive.

 

And btw, there's more hate from gamers on the X1. The reason the hate is there is because Microsoft decided to go after the casual audience in their first presentation. They're trying to get their console in more homes. If they only sold to gamers they would sell less consoles.

 

The reality is the cheapest console at launch will sell the most. Sony finally caught up because more people could finally afford it, including people who already had a 360. People who bought a PS3 first never had a reason to go back and buy a 360, but it's exactly the opposite for people who only had a 360.

Edited June 2, 2013 by BlackNoise

[jamieleng]

 

I gotta say, the pics of that screenshot and gameplay trailer are eating me up right now. I want my game to play like that screen shot. So I wanna wait till PS4, but at the sametime, I really don't wanna wait to play the game.

One is a closer look and a high res screenshot, other is a still from a video. It can't be compared. It will be better that that still from the video, it won't be as good as the screenshot but won't be much worse either.

That trailer screengrab looks worse than RDR & there's no way R* would let that happen. Not to mention, all the protagonists character models look better in their most recent trailers. Even the obvious cutscenes (which makes up the majority of the trailers) look much more polished than trailer 2.

Edited June 2, 2013 by jamieleng

[MMG]

I find it to be comical when someone tries to paint a 'corporate picture' when he clearly thinks he knows the subject, but the essence eludes him. His idea of Rockstar Games's business model does not only happens to be fallacy filled but also predicated of off dated (false) wikipedia-esque data. So let me give you one solid bit of advise mate; simply don't..

I feel like this was a better explanation than simply saying

"GTA V won't be announced on 8th Gen yet cuz I said so"

 

Maybe I'm not a Nobel prize winning marketing economist, but you have to admit this was a professional attempt at visualizing a corporate sales agenda (geared toward people who may not already know.)

 

I make a good salary doing what I like, and I thought I'd share this analytical skill set with the forum.

Maybe you knew how this works because you're smart but there may be others who don't.

Don't be patronizing to the rest of the forum, thanks ravi

 

[Raavi]

I find it to be comical when someone tries to paint a 'corporate picture' when he clearly thinks he knows the subject, but the essence eludes him. His idea of Rockstar Games's business model does not only happens to be fallacy filled but also predicated of off dated (false) wikipedia-esque data. So let me give you one solid bit of advise mate; simply don't..

I feel like this was a better explanation than simply saying

"GTA V won't be announced on 8th Gen yet cuz I said so"

 

Maybe I'm not a Nobel prize winning marketing economist, but you have to admit this was a professional attempt at visualizing a corporate sales agenda (geared toward people who may not already know.)

 

I make a good salary doing what I like, and I thought I'd share this analytical skill set with the forum.

Maybe you knew how this works because you're smart but there may be others who don't.

Don't be patronizing to the rest of the forum, thanks ravi

My apologies, that was a bit too harsh. As I said in my edited post; your conclusion was correct. Which is the only thing that matters, especially considering we're on a forum. I must say, if you had the right up-to-date data and excluded the imagery you could've had me fooled.

[MMG]

 

I find it to be comical when someone tries to paint a 'corporate picture' when he clearly thinks he knows the subject, but the essence eludes him. His idea of Rockstar Games's business model does not only happens to be fallacy filled but also predicated of off dated (false) wikipedia-esque data. So let me give you one solid bit of advise mate; simply don't..

I feel like this was a better explanation than simply saying

"GTA V won't be announced on 8th Gen yet cuz I said so"

 

Maybe I'm not a Nobel prize winning marketing economist, but you have to admit this was a professional attempt at visualizing a corporate sales agenda (geared toward people who may not already know.)

 

I make a good salary doing what I like, and I thought I'd share this analytical skill set with the forum.

Maybe you knew how this works because you're smart but there may be others who don't.

Don't be patronizing to the rest of the forum, thanks ravi

My apologies, that was a bit too harsh. As I said in my edited post; your conclusion was correct. Which is the only thing that matters, especially considering we're on a forum. I must say, if you had the right up-to-date data and excluded the imagery you could've had me fooled.

My guess is R* spends millions of dollars in creating marketing and sales projections (as every other multimillion dollar corporations do), making their data close to 95% accurate with a 5% margin of error.

I gathered my data with 10 minutes of research and a can of monster energy drink.

 

For example,

Question: Is 300 apples+500 apples a giant pile of apples?

 

Even if the actual data was 400 apples and 500 apples,

The answer is still "yes, that's a huge pile of apples.

Although the numbers might not be at a 100% accuracy, the logic stays intact.

 

This post was not supposed to be a marketing and sales projection.

I'm not going to spend my own money doing that.

It was a showcase of logical thinking using approximate data.

 

It's simply basic data analysis.

Edited June 2, 2013 by MMG

[cp1dell]

I gotta say, the pics of that screenshot and gameplay trailer are eating me up right now. I want my game to play like that screen shot. So I wanna wait till PS4, but at the sametime, I really don't wanna wait to play the game.

One is a closer look and a high res screenshot, other is a still from a video. It can't be compared. It will be better that that still from the video, it won't be as good as the screenshot but won't be much worse either.

That trailer screengrab looks worse than RDR & there's no way R* would let that happen. Not to mention, all the protagonists character models look better in their most recent trailers. Even the obvious cutscenes (which makes up the majority of the trailers) look much more polished than trailer 2.

Multiple sources that got to view the demo say the game looks as good as Red Dead Redemption, the only opposing view being IGN, but that doesn't say much.

[Mr Makaveli]

Total of: 77.2 million Xbox 360 consoles sold worldwide, March 2013 confirmed

 

Total of: 70 million PS3 consoles sold worldwide, November 2012 confirmed

 

___________________________________________

 

According to Dan Houser, R* expects to sell 18 million GTA V units on the Xbox 360 and PS3 by the end of the fiscal year.

 

Number of 7th generation consoles:

147,200,000 Units

 

Number of GTA V expected sales for 7th generation consoles:

18,000,000 Units

 

Market Penetration Rate_12 months:

18,000,000/147,200,000

=12.2%

 

(market penetration rate separates house hold names like gta/cod from games like lego starwars/finding nemo)

 

First of all they are expecting a 12% market penetration, which is almost unreal in a marketing perspective of a dying console.

 

___________________________________________

 

8th generation gamers will mostly be active gamers, with consoles coming with a hefty price tag.

 

If 10% of the people who has purchased a Xbox 360 or PS 3 decide to buy the new consoles in the first 12 months,

7,720,000 Xbox One console Sales

6,000,000 PS4 console Sales

 

Total of 13,720,000 Units

 

New consoles coming late Q4, 2013.

 

A loss in market penetration is a loss in marketing value.

(Announcing the 8th gen GTA V itself is a loss of market penetration for the 7th gen because some gamers may hold out to purchase it on the 8th gen)

___________________________________________

 

Say the game in announced for Xbox One and PS4

 

And 40% of 8th generation had an eye on purchasing GTA V:

 

Total of 5,488,000 GTA V Units moved

 

Assuming the new games are at an average of $70 a piece world wide,

 

5,488,000 x 70

 

Potential Total revenue:

$384,160,000

 

*Most gamers wont purchase both gen 7 and 8 games.

 

___________________________________________

 

 

An 18 million sales projection for 7th generation consoles will result in a net revenue of $1.08 billion.

however, R* will be losing out on $384 million on revenue until the 8th generation console sales pick up.

 

(revenue is not profit)

 

http://ycharts.com/companies/TTWO/enterprise_value

Take Two (2k+R*) an estimated 1.44 billion dollar company,

 

Even if it is temporary, a $400 million slump for a $1.44 billion compnay is a devastating 27% of the stock value.

 

Not to mention, many 8th generation gamers may deter purchase after seeing the game in action on Sept. 17th, 2013.

 

___________________________________________

 

Just from announcing GTA for the 8th generation, R* will lose some of their 7th generation market penetration, and revenue 2013.

 

If R*'s business plan is to sell as many units as possible,

they will not announce the 8th generation GTA V until a later date.

 

This is why the Xbox One and PS4 GTA will not be announced before 2014.

(even PC GTA V)

 

Its coming tho, next year.

Dont hold your breath.

 

 

IDK I could be wrong tho, just my thoughts

Damn, you must have a LOT of free time in your hands to go through all this research

[MMG]

If you know what you're doing, 10 mins gathering data, 10 mins writing it in a cleaned up manner

 

Turns out you can get a lot done on the weekends :-p

Edited June 2, 2013 by MMG

[S1LV3R_W0LF]

Ya you did something very cool for the console players that are crying that they don't want a better version out while they are playing their outdated one.

 

But you forgetting a small detail, while Rockstar is waiting that everyone decides choosing between keeping their console or selling it while it has some value to buy a new one, and holding on it for a game, meanwhile every other company is already making profit in all the markets.

 

Watch Dogs:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

Assassins Creed 4:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

BattleField 4:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

Call of Duty Ghosts:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

NFS Rivals:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

 

These are just a few cross platform titles, that will come for current gen and new gen... and you think Rockstar will let the competition earn all while they explore one platform alone? You ever thought why Rockstar would release such a title in a time frame right after vacations? When everyone goes back to work/ school and the last thing they'll make priority are video games? The only reason for this is because they need to sell their product before Christmas. The first days/ weeks will be the main sales explosion like it was with GTAIV, once that is done they can target the rest.

 

That won't change the fact that people still buys the game later, those with older consoles that can't or plan to buy new console will, while others with more money will target the new opening market.

 

Oh and on a side note, remember that when the new consoles are out they will be impossible to pirate, which means people will buy their games legit, something that isn't granted in other platforms.

 

In conclusion, yes they could do what you're saying and use the old model mostly because they needed the extra time to port the game, but if they already have it if they don't sell it they'll be losing a lot of money to other companies.

Edited June 2, 2013 by S1LV3R_W0LF

[Masher8559]

 

Ya you did something very cool for the console players that are crying that they don't want a better version out while they are playing their outdated one.

 

But you forgetting a small detail, while Rockstar is waiting that everyone decides choosing between keeping their console or selling it while it has some value to buy a new one, and holding on it for a game, meanwhile every other company is already making profit in all the markets.

 

Watch Dogs:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

Assassins Creed 4:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

BattleField 4:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

Call of Duty Ghosts:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

NFS Rivals:

PC, XboxOne, PS4, Xbox 360 and PS3.

 

 

These are just a few cross platform titles, that will come for current gen and new gen... and you think Rockstar will let the competition earn all while they explore one platform alone? You ever thought why Rockstar would release such a title in a time frame right after vacations? When everyone goes back to work/ school and the last thing they'll make priority are video games? The only reason for this is because they need to sell their product before Christmas. The first days/ weeks will be the main sales explosion like it was with GTAIV, once that is done they can target the rest.

 

That won't change the fact that people still buys the game later, those with older consoles that can't or plan to buy new console will, while others with more money will target the new opening market.

 

Oh and on a side note, remember that when the new consoles are out they will be impossible to pirate, which means people will buy their games legit, something that isn't granted in other platforms.

 

In conclusion, yes they could do what you're saying and use the old model mostly because they needed the extra time to port the game, but if they already have it if they don't sell it they'll be losing  a lot of money to other companies.

Sadly this is why GTA will not beat CoD sales. Cod as crap as it is, sells on pretty much every platform. GTA has always released only on consoles first then PC almost a year later.

 

Whilst GTA V will no doubt be a huge hit and will easily sell millions, overall it will not out sell CoD.

Edited June 2, 2013 by Masher8559

[S1LV3R_W0LF]

I still have hope in Rockstar and that they've learned with history, so I think they changed their strategy, but we'll see about that in 4-6 months.

 

I mean everyone thought Rockstar would never go for the same sales strategy of other companies right? And look to what their doing with SE and CE announced even before the game is released including extra digital content (in other words 1st day DLC).

 

In this industry they learn with each other, they aren't lone wolves, and if a few companies do it and they earn with it, why shouldn't they?

Edited June 2, 2013 by S1LV3R_W0LF