GTAV [Still Out] by March 2013

[Magic_Al]

 

@baguvix_wanrltw

VGChartz doesn't get direct reporting from retailers, and Steam doesn't report sales. VGChartz have always been way off with Rockstar's reported numbers.

The gap between Rockstar and VGChartz is because they're counting different things. Take-Two may report sell-in while VGChartz reports sell-thru. Take-Two gets their money when retailers buy it to resell. If they sold 3 million MP3 then 3 million minus current sell-thru is how much retailers still have on the shelf from their first order.

TakeTwo still would have had to have actually sold the game to say they were sold, most retailers don't pay the supplier until they sell them.

 

Remember before when they said they had "Shipped" 3 million copies just after the release of Max Payne 3, (Source) now they are saying they have sold over 3 million.

These numbers makes sense since 1.8 million have been sold according to VG chartz for consoles and Steam doesn't release sales figures and PC is the lead platform for Max Payne, so their 3 million figure is most likely sold not shipped.

 

Also Baguvix, reading your post is very difficult when every sentence is double spaced, you do not need a new paragraph for every sentence and it just looks messy.

It's not a consignment business. If it's on the shelf, Take-Two already got its money, and generally the store can't return it. I purchase for a computer store and believe me there's a lot of things on the shelf I WISH I could return or get price protection for.

 

When Take-Two says "shipped" they mean sell-in. They will also specify when they refer to sell-thru. Today's press release says:

 

 

Launched Max Payne 3 on Xbox 360, PS3 and PC. The title received excellent reviews and has sold-in over 3 million units to date.

So they have still not sold-thru 3 million.

 

I think you're overestimating Steam and PC sales by a lot.

[Ispintechno]

Sounds like from what we heard today Agent is indeed alive and well and expected to release in 12-18 months from today

W00t? All they said was basically "no comment", where the hell do you get "we're working on it and it's coming in a year" from?!?

First post in the thread.

 

 

Question: "Should we expect Agent in the pipeline within the next 12-18 months" (Arvind Bhatia)

Zelnick (answering): "Yeah we just haven't announced anything yet".

 

 

[MosquitoSmasher]

Sounds like from what we heard today Agent is indeed alive and well and expected to release in 12-18 months from today

W00t? All they said was basically "no comment", where the hell do you get "we're working on it and it's coming in a year" from?!?

First post in the thread.

 

 

Question: "Should we expect Agent in the pipeline within the next 12-18 months" (Arvind Bhatia)

Zelnick (answering): "Yeah we just haven't announced anything yet".

How odd, i thought he said he didn't have anything to say about that title?

[Adriaan]

Yeah Magic_Al is right, especially given the download size, I don't think the split between digital and PC had Steam sales way up there. One can make some estimates from the initial amount of people online playing the game through their stats area, which wasn't that stellar. It may have improved with the Steam sale, but this won't reflect in today's report which ends at June 30th (same can be said about the packaged version's drop to $29.99).

 

 

Unrelated fun fact I realized today: Rockstar moved their studios (New York and North) to new offices during a GTA year (2004). This expected GTA fiscal launch year, they're moving their studios in Canada and New England, and there are some renovations going on at the NYC office as well (though I think this might be limited to the 3rd floor, where 2K resides).

Edited August 1, 2012 by Adriaan

[Ispintechno]

 

Sounds like from what we heard today Agent is indeed alive and well and expected to release in 12-18 months from today

W00t? All they said was basically "no comment", where the hell do you get "we're working on it and it's coming in a year" from?!?

First post in the thread.

 

 

Question: "Should we expect Agent in the pipeline within the next 12-18 months" (Arvind Bhatia)

Zelnick (answering): "Yeah we just haven't announced anything yet".

How odd, i thought he said he didn't have anything to say about that title?

Well if Agent is inbound next year it will need heavy marketing as it's a new brand, but R* would have GTAV DLCs and continued game sales all next year as a safety for gross profit just in case Agent turns out to be Max Payne. I think it's a solid strategy. Even more important to release GTAV this fiscal year!

Edited August 1, 2012 by Ispintechno

[Audiophile]

 

Lets do some Math! Weeee! Ok, Take-Two's predictions are $1.8 billion, that is $1,800,000,000!

 

Now, Mr. Zelnick says that 55% (previously 60%) of that belongs to R* games, while 45%(previously 40%) belongs to 2K. 55% of $1.8 billion is 990 million, $990,000,000, and according to Zelnick, Max Payne 3 has sold 3 Million Copies in 2 1/2 months, and giving Take-Two the benefit of the doubt here, I will calculate that they receive 100% of the $60 spent on one copy of the game... Now, all those copies sold has made 180 Million dollars ($180,000,000.) That leaves 810 Million Dollars left. Ok, Now giving the benefit of the doubt again, lets say that 2/3 of people that bought the game buys the 'R* Pass,' Which cost $29.99 rounding to $30, that is another 60 Million Dollars, so we are now sitting at a total of 240 Million dollars for Max Payne 3... with a huge benefit given.                 

 

That leaves 750 Million Dollars left that is supposed to be Garnered by R* games... Where is that going to come from??? Keep in mind that 240 million Dollars is from giving Take-Two the benefit of the doubt, cause as you should know, Retailers Make profit on selling new games too, the whole 60 dollars for a new game does NOT go to the publisher.

 

I know Max Payne 3 has only been out for 2 and half months, and it still has until March 31st 2013 to sell in this fiscal year, but lets face it, with as slowly as this game has sold and is selling, Adding 60-120 Million dollars (1-2 million more copies sold) to what that game has made would be seriously pushing it. But what the hell, lets do it, hypothetically it sells 2 million more copies, so that brings the total to 360 Million Dollars for Max Payne 3 in FY 2013. That also brings the projected total of the 990 Million Dollars (55%) down to 630 Million dollars.

 

 

Again, where is 630 Million Dollars going to come from before fiscal years end? I have taken into account the DLC for MP3, but not digital sales of something like GTAIII that was supposed to come to PSN today, but didnt because of a song licensing issue or something, but sales of Digital content would even put a dent in 630 Million Dollars.

 

Ok, if GTAV Releases at the first of March 2013, It would have to sell Roughly 10.5 Million copies to make 630 Million Dollars. That Is Aloooooot to sell in one month, Even For GTA. Now... releasing in Feb. (Bioshock Month, so not likely but...) 10 Million Copies in 2 Months? Still pushing it very far. First of Jan. 2013, thats reasonable and do-able, 5 Million units sold on first weeks of launch, with very slowly declining but very steady sales 10.5 Million copies by March 31st 2013 easily reached.

 

NOW! If Zelnick really wanted to make investors happy, he has undersold that number, and a Nov.-Dec. or even an Oct. Launch for GTAV would be ideal, making a lot more copies sold meaning more Profit. <--- Wishful thinking and logical.

 

To wrap up.

 

Rockstars predicted contribution-  55%        -($990,000,000)

 

 

MP3 copies sold so far-            3,000,000 -($180,000,000)

MP3 DLC [most everyone got season pass]-(60,000,000)

Potential MP3 sales for year      2,000,000 -(120,000,000)   

 

Total for Max Payne 3                              - 360,000,000

 

 

                                                              990,000,000

                                                            - 360,000,000

                                                          = $630,000,000

 

$630,000,000 Made By what? You be the judge.

 

This was in another thread posted by FRA1Z3R and seriously this is what I have been trying to say. to FRA1Z3R!

[baguvix_wanrltw]

Question: "Should we expect Agent in the pipeline within the next 12-18 months" (Arvind Bhatia)

Zelnick (answering): "Yeah we just haven't announced anything yet".

I remember that differently - but I really don't feel like hearing the entire conference (or even the last 20 minues Q&A) now, I'm going to bed soon.

 

Maybe someone could make the effort and try to find that part again and tell us what they really said - but I remember them saying they have not announced anything, but no "yeah" to 12-18 months.

[Adriaan]

@baguvix_wanrltw

He did say "Yeah", but not in the tone of voice as you might think. It was more like "Yeaaaaaah.... we just haven't announced anything yet" (I added more emphasis on the "Yeah" now, but he didn't mean it as a "yes").

 

I think I'll remove that word from my original post to avoid confusion.

[Ispintechno]

 

Question: "Should we expect Agent in the pipeline within the next 12-18 months" (Arvind Bhatia)

Zelnick (answering): "Yeah we just haven't announced anything yet".

I remember that differently - but I really don't feel like hearing the entire conference (or even the last 20 minues Q&A) now, I'm going to bed soon.

 

Maybe someone could make the effort and try to find that part again and tell us what they really said - but I remember them saying they have not announced anything, but no "yeah" to 12-18 months.

Fair enough, I was just going off reported quotes. Haven't listened to the conference or audio from it yet. All a grain of salt for me today. Stupid work got in the way lol

[MosquitoSmasher]

I must say my thoughts/opinions are very conflicting...if that's the right word.

 

 

On one hand i don't believe in a 2012 release because...

 

- Still so little info (but could start this month)

- A release this year sounds too good to be true.

- Judging by Zelnick's comments and his way of avoiding GTA V questions..it kinda sounds V is far away from us.

- Still TBA, making me kinda believe in a April/May or even..gulp...a late 2013 release. And making all those expectations from Take Two not matter at all.

 

On the other hand....i do...

 

 

- These numbers Take Two are expecting don't lie. Perfectly explained by baguvix_wanrltw, Audiophile and Vega. Very important point.

- Rockstar changing the Max Payne 3 DLC amount from five packs to 3 packs, curious decision.

- Could mean the DLC marketing from Newswire is going away, making room for GTA V updates?

- Zelnick stating it's making substantial progress.

- Early 2013 unlikely...no way they will f*ck with Bioshock Infinite, all the more reason to release around end of 2012.

 

Ah well, time will tell...or more like...this month will.

[beep41]

The release line up is on order from most recent to last. It looks like with GTA V's position on the list the earliest we could expect it is March - May 2013, and the latest of Holiday 2013.

 

Just my guess.

[Magic_Al]

This was in another thread posted by FRA1Z3R and seriously this is what I have been trying to say. to FRA1Z3R!

Yeah, it's more like $50 per game that Take-Two grosses. For example, my store's wholesale cost from a particular distributor for Skyrim Xbox 360 is $53 and the distributor is taking a small cut of the $53. But it does a good job showing GTA V is obviously needed to make the number.

[Michealmyers2012]

Sounds like from what we heard today Agent is indeed alive and well and expected to release in 12-18 months from today

W00t? All they said was basically "no comment", where the hell do you get "we're working on it and it's coming in a year" from?!?

First post in the thread.

 

 

Question: "Should we expect Agent in the pipeline within the next 12-18 months" (Arvind Bhatia)

Zelnick (answering): "Yeah we just haven't announced anything yet".

How odd, i thought he said he didn't have anything to say about that title?

Well if Agent is inbound next year it will need heavy marketing as it's a new brand, but R* would have GTAV DLCs and continued game sales all next year as a safety for gross profit just in case Agent turns out to be Max Payne. I think it's a solid strategy. Even more important to release GTAV this fiscal year!

GTA V is NOT going to have DLC google it.

[Finn 7 five 11]

 

I think you're overestimating Steam and PC sales by a lot.

Ok got it, makes some sense, can't believe it was such a flop.

 

Possibly, well according to VG Chartz they have sold 150 000 PC hard-copies, and PC is the lead platform supposedly so it's only natural to assume that the PC version sold more than on console, and the 360 version has sold almost a million now...

 

But we can only really guess steam sales.

[Adriaan]

@Magic_Al

Where is your store based? Also, does T2 handle their own distribution entirely in North America (or at least the States)? I vaguely remember it being handled by their subsidiary "Jack of All Games", but that was sold off... so not sure entirely who handles it now.

 

Also, can you tell me if your store is a part of a popular chain, or independent? I'm specifically just trying to find out if it's a GameStop and whereabouts roughly .

Edited August 1, 2012 by Adriaan

[Audiophile]

Goddamn I just want to say you guys, it feels so awesome to have a logical and legit discussion right now!

[Bitches_Brew]

GTA V is NOT going to have DLC google it.

i f*cking hope not. DLC is just another way to nickle and dime people into paying more for a game.

[MosquitoSmasher]

Holy crap, that explanation by Frazier is even better and detailed. You'd really think it has to come out this year man...man how i wish i could put all my hopes into that and look forward to it. We'll have to wait and see. But yeah i agree, it's great to see these kind of discussions here.

[Magic_Al]

 

I think you're overestimating Steam and PC sales by a lot.

Ok got it, makes some sense, can't believe it was such a flop.

 

Possibly, well according to VG Chartz they have sold 150 000 PC hard-copies, and PC is the lead platform supposedly so it's only natural to assume that the PC version sold more than on console, and the 360 version has sold almost a million now...

 

But we can only really guess steam sales.

"Lead platform" refers to the making of the game, what hardware and OS they started developing the game's programming with before they ported code over to other platforms to start the other versions of the game. I'm not familiar with that term being used in a sales context.

[Michealmyers2012]

GTA V is NOT going to have DLC google it.

i f*cking hope not. DLC is just another way to nickle and dime people into paying more for a game.

Would we really want DLC from the looks of the game it's pretty full up to the brim not to mind the serious question "will the engine be able to handle it?"

But yeah I hate DLC too in the end it's pure sh*te.

[MosquitoSmasher]

GTA V is NOT going to have DLC google it.

i f*cking hope not. DLC is just another way to nickle and dime people into paying more for a game.

Would we really want DLC from the looks of the game it's pretty full up to the brim not to mind the serious question "will the engine be able to handle it?"

But yeah I hate DLC too in the end it's pure sh*te.

Did you dislike The Lost and Damned and The Ballad of Gay Tony? Cause i sure loved them and they were their money's worth.

[Audiophile]

Episodes was awesome and I considered it DLC worth the money. I am playing through them again right now! Already beat BoGT. On TLaD.

 

But I do recall R* said they won't be doing DLC like this again?

[MosquitoSmasher]

Question about Max Payne 3 DLC packs. What was it at first.....for what month was the last DLC planned initially?

[Loves GTA]

 

Question about Max Payne 3 DLC packs. What was it at first.....for what month was the last DLC planned initially?

Nobody knows besides Rockstar. All we knew prior to today is that Rockstar said the last DLC would release in the fall. Not even a specific month was given.

[Audiophile]

Not sure. I never followed the DLC for MP3 as I never gave a sh*t about it despite owning the actual game.

 

EDIT: Here we go - http://www.thatvideogameblog.com/2012/07/3.../?doing_wp_cron

 

 

The original intent was to release 7 DLC packs throughout the year

 

I believe with a number of them released by the end of summer, so in August and the rest released in fall (Oct) I do believe.

[mvega0422]

Glad to see that some people have opened up the possibilities in their minds.

 

When people mention the HD remakes of the old games, I feel that they are right. This is the only possibility that could destroy everything we've been assuming.

 

If an HD remake of the old titles comes out, it will be a hit. This would destroy my assumptions because this could be what would net Rockstar the additional 600 million. GTA V can be announced as a FY14 title and everything would work out perfectly. That being said, I don't see this happening.

 

I just feel like the numbers speak for themselves. The numbers are the only things that can't be faked, everything else can. They have control over everything except the factual numbers, and the factual numbers show GTA V being here by January. If not, holy sh*t, I will be the wrongest person alive.

 

Edit: Yes, very weird that MP3 DLC's have been consolidated. Just another piece of evidence pointing to a release late this year.

 

Edit #2: Tomorrow morning, I'll mention in a post somewhere what kinds of moves I make on TTWO tomorrow.. as of now, I'm going to increase the size of my position, 'cause today's conference call was good news to me. I told my family when I went on vacation: "No News is Good News", and I assume the same now. As long as estimates remain at R* pulling in 55% of the 1.8 billion, No News is Good News.

 

Edit #3: No News is Good News....... Until mid-September, in which case No News is Really Bad News and we need to seriously rethink our strategy, because then we're pushing the envelope for potential announcement period. They have to give it around 3 months, so if there's no info by the end of September, say Hello to a March 2013 or later release.

Edited August 1, 2012 by mvega0422

[MosquitoSmasher]

I just found this artwork on Gamekings(dutch website) ...i assume fake?

 

 

http://www.pu.nl/sites/pu.nl/files/pubeeld2/gtav_0.jpg

[Bitches_Brew]

 

GTA V is NOT going to have DLC google it.

i f*cking hope not. DLC is just another way to nickle and dime people into paying more for a game.

Would we really want DLC from the looks of the game it's pretty full up to the brim not to mind the serious question "will the engine be able to handle it?"

But yeah I hate DLC too in the end it's pure sh*te.

Did you dislike The Lost and Damned and The Ballad of Gay Tony? Cause i sure loved them and they were their money's worth.

i don't look at TLAD and BOGT as DLC because you were able to buy EFLC as an actual game....or should i say 2 games.... for $40.

 

i'm talking more about side missions, weapons, characters, ect. ect. little sh*t.

 

if they want to remake GTA V with a whole new story and release it as an actual game(at a discount), then i'm all for it.

[Audiophile]

I agree with you there, Bitches_Brew.

 

That kind of DLC is bullsh*t and is stuff that should have been in the game to begin with.

 

I wonder why R* changed their DLC schedule for MP3? Is it honestly because they finally realized MP3 will get them nowhere and they need to move on and get it out as quickly as possible?

[Gtaghost22]

- Still TBA, making me kinda believe in a April/May or even..gulp...a late 2013 release.

Late 2013?

You are joking, right?