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All current evidence leading to a 2012 release


mooonlights

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mooonlights

Alright, so I decided to make a thread which would house all current speculations/leads to a 2012 release date. Feel free to post anything which disproves any of this.

 

1. Traditionally, all Grand Theft Auto games have released in (or been scheduled for) October. This means an October 2012 release date is possible.

 

2. San Andreas had its first trailer released on August 23, 2004, just over 2 months before it was released on October 26, 2004. It still became one of the most successful GTA titles in history, and the internet was no where near as large or widepsread as it is now, so internet marketing would not have been as effective. This leaves an October 2012 release date still very possible, even in June.

 

3. Take-Two expects $1.75 to $1.85 billion gross turnover for Fiscal Year 2013. It expects around 60% from R* (or $1.1 billion), Max Payne 3 is not going to be able to provide all $1.1 billion, leaving GTA V to release before March 31st 2013. Bioshock Infinite was also pushed back to 2013 from October 2012. Why? Hmm, well to fit in GTA V, most probably. A March 2013 release date is not reasonable, because the company would only get 4 weeks max. of sales from GTA V. Why would they want to hinder turnover results, when they could switch the game with Infinite?

 

4. There is evidence that the game is completed as of now.

 

"In June 2011, sources allegedly close to the developer told GameSpot that the title is "well under way", with final touches like mini-games already being applied, and a 2012 release "pretty likely". "It's the big one," they also said of the game, noting that GTA V's scale is vast." - Pre Announcement (Wikipedia). Whether or not these sources are legit or not is unknown.

 

3 (possibly more..) Rockstar North employees are currently on holidays:

 

http://twitter.com/#!/FelipeBusquets

https://twitter.com/#!/lochnesssnowman/

https://twitter.com/TorSigurdson/status/209212820347289600

 

5. It is most likely Rockstar is keeping any new info close to the release date to keep hype fresh (and the lack of info is purely because of Max Payne 3). There will be a massive buzz on twitter (barely known during IV marketing, and did not exist for SA etc), and people will be extremely excited to know GTA V is releasing so close. I'm sure the internet alone will cause enough hype to keep a short marketing time span possible for V. Since the title is huge, it won't be difficult at ALL to market this game. The trailer alone received nearly 7 million views in 1 - 2 weeks, while GTA IV only received 1 million during its 3.5 year existence right up until the V trailer was announced. YouTube, Facebook, Twitter are all major word-of-mouth networks that will market GTA V for Rockstar anyway.

 

Not saying V will definitely release in 2012, but it seems likely given all this evidence. Also be free to laugh at this topic on Jan 1. 2013 if it doesn't release in 2012 smile.gif

Edited by mooonlights
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CubA_iLL_BrothA

When did Bioshock Infinite get pushed to 2013?

But anyway yea it has to be a Oct 2012 release, atleast what most of us are hoping for. The lack of info was really because of MP3 if you think about it.

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jackass2009
When did Bioshock Infinite get pushed to 2013?

But anyway yea it has to be a Oct 2012 release, atleast what most of us are hoping for. The lack of info was really because of MP3 if you think about it.

A month or two ago is when Bioshock got pushed back again. I agree that it's gotta come out in 2012, and that MP3 has hindered at least some of GTA V's info.

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Honeslty the Grand theft Auto V campaign has just begin, but still No infomention at all we just have to "wait" i'm thinking that GTAV infomention could possible arrive in June, July, August. If not? its gotta be next year and then infomention arrives in September and onwards. I'm just saying guy's lol.

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Triple Vacuum Seal

I agree with the OP. Good points. We are very close to info. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if I saw something next week.

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Hopefully, it's a 2012 release date. I hope we hear something soon but I doubt it. My hype is dead and I don't care much about this game anymore. The weather is just beautiful and I meet my friends and many other things so I don't care when the game is out or if the game will canceled.

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Everything make senses. If Take Two and Rockstar were smart (and I know they are) they would release October this year. They would get the first few weeks full of sales, shoving away Call of Duty who won't get as many sales as usual, then get the black friday sales, and the Christmas sales. The after Christmas sales with everyone and their christmas money... and on and on. The sooner they release, the more money they make for the year.

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Take-Two can book a large amount of revenue from GTA V in this fiscal year even if it GTA V is released the last week of March because games are sold into distribution. Take-Two sold in 3 million copies of Max Payne 3 at launch. Half of those were still sitting on store shelves 4 weeks later, but retailers physically own them. Take-Two already got paid for what they shipped. The sell-in for GTA V will be huge when stores stock up ahead of that launch.

 

That said, Take-Two's $2/share earnings from GTA IV were reported after it had been out for several months. It's a more conservative prediction to say GTA V will do as well than to claim it will do much better. Doing as well by March, then, would mean getting the game out this fall so sales have time to reach that level.

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2. San Andreas had its first trailer released on August 23, 2004, just over 2 months before it was released on October 26, 2004.

Hopefully that's the reason for the lack of info now sad.gif

 

Didn't some guy claim more info's gonna come out next week?

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mooonlights
Take-Two can book a large amount of revenue from GTA V in this fiscal year even if it GTA V is released the last week of March because games are sold into distribution. Take-Two sold in 3 million copies of Max Payne 3 at launch. Half of those were still sitting on store shelves 4 weeks later, but retailers physically own them. Take-Two already got paid for what they shipped. The sell-in for GTA V will be huge when stores stock up ahead of that launch.

 

That said, Take-Two's $2/share earnings from GTA IV were reported after it had been out for several months. It's a more conservative prediction to say GTA V will do as well than to claim it will do much better. Doing as well by March, then, would mean getting the game out this fall so sales have time to reach that level.

March seems relatively close to Infinite, don't you think? It would make more sense to spread them a bit. Why would it be pushed to 2013 anyway?

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GTA36362355

I am very positive and hopeful about a 2012 release. Good work OP in bringing all those facts together. icon14.gif

Also this a good but speculative evidence that GTA V is almost done with development and ready to release this year:

user posted image

Edited by deepthroatgta6
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GANGSTA26-VERCETTI

I love how the crowd underestimates the rockstar team. They know how to manage a promotional campaign like no other. It is like a surreal film, they make you go through a whole spectrum of emotions. They make you doubt the team. Once the crowd has reached a high enough level of regret and hope, BAM, you get hit with a load of information that makes the angry crowd squirm of joy. I applaud the team, for this is the most ambitious game to date. The longer the wait, goes to show that this will be the champagne of gta games. Feed the need fellas. lol.gif

 

Excuse my un-finished post kind gentlemen.

I have to agree with most posters here due to an october release being the most reasonable date for gtaV. If the team agreed that tis will be the grand daddy of them all, then they will release it on their landmark month of the year; that month being october. It is kind of like gta: san andreas, only this time the spectrum of time is more enlarged. I am positive that we will be tuckered up in our rooms bashing each others brains out by the end of october on online baby.

Edited by GANGSTA26-VERCETTI
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2. San Andreas had its first trailer released on August 23, 2004, just over 2 months before it was released on October 26, 2004. It still became one of the most successful GTA titles in history, and the internet was no where near as large or widepsread as it is now, so internet marketing would not have been as effective. This leaves an October 2012 release date still very possible, even in June.

You cannot compare this at all to the GTA V situation. San Andreas may have had its first trailer in August, but they had already released tons of previews, screenshots, and magazine articles months before the trailer, starting in May. The marketing had already been going for 3 months when the first SA trailer released.

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Hammertime12

I extremely agree with OP. It just simply makes more sense. October is what I always preach on these forums.

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BlackLightning
I extremely agree with OP. It just simply makes more sense. October is what I always preach on these forums.

I agree with you. The game will be released in October of 2013.

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I extremely agree with OP. It just simply makes more sense. October is what I always preach on these forums.

I agree with you. The game will be released in October of 2013.

You're so funny. dozingoff.gifWHY THE MOTHERF*CKING HELL DID F*CKING ROCKSTAR RELEASED THIS F*CKING USELESS TRAILER IF THEY DON'T RELEASE THIS F*CKING GAME THIS YEAR? angry.gifsuicidal.gif I mean I don't care that much about this stupid game anymore. They could cancel this f*cking game and I wouldn't care about this crap. It's their f*cking money and they have to earn one billion dollar this fiscal year. I mean it's their fault if they're that stupid to think that they earn the billion dollars with Max Gayne 3 and theses 7 sh*tty DLCs. Take2 said that MP3 will make 300 millions dollars. SO THIS F*CKING GAME WILL RELEASED THIS YEAR OR ROCKSTAR IS F*CKING UNBELIEVABLE STUPID. It's summer time and I meet my friends to make partys with them. So I don't care about games or something similar.

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I extremely agree with OP. It just simply makes more sense. October is what I always preach on these forums.

I agree with you. The game will be released in October of 2013.

You're so funny. dozingoff.gifWHY THE MOTHERF*CKING HELL DID F*CKING ROCKSTAR RELEASED THIS F*CKING USELESS TRAILER IF THEY DON'T RELEASE THIS F*CKING GAME THIS YEAR? angry.gifsuicidal.gif I mean I don't care that much about this stupid game anymore. They could cancel this f*cking game and I wouldn't care about this crap. It's their f*cking money and they have to earn one billion dollar this fiscal year. I mean it's their fault if they're that stupid to think that they earn the billion dollars with Max Gayne 3 and theses 7 sh*tty DLCs. Take2 said that MP3 will make 300 millions dollars. SO THIS F*CKING GAME WILL RELEASED THIS YEAR OR ROCKSTAR IS F*CKING UNBELIEVABLE STUPID. It's summer time and I meet my friends to make partys with them. So I don't care about games or something similar.

God damn bro, you need to chill the f*ck out. You should go outside once in awhile and stop getting so worked up over a f*cking idiot on GTA Forums.

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The__Phoenix

I agree,but we need to see some kind of info before july 10-15,If not a 2012 launch seems unlikely imo.

Edited by bud23
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it just can't happen , thats UNREAL to get GTA V out this year . i thinks thats NOT POSSIBLE , Max Payne 3 has 7 DLC and i think that TT expects to get that 1 billion from R* exactly from thees 7 map packs + R* released Max Payne 1 on phones for 2.99$ which TT expect to bring millions.

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1 billion from map packs, are you crazy? how can map packs make more than the original game?

user posted image
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mooonlights
it just can't happen , thats UNREAL to get GTA V out this year . i thinks thats NOT POSSIBLE , Max Payne 3 has 7 DLC and i think that TT expects to get that 1 billion from R* exactly from thees 7 map packs + R* released Max Payne 1 on phones for 2.99$ which TT expect to bring millions.

Well, total rough estimates, but

 

Currently MP3 shipped 3 million units to retailers...back in '06 apparently a NA game cost $50 and wholesale price was $32. I'm guessing it's closer to 40 these days... so.

 

3,000,000 * ~40 = ~$120,000,000

 

There's no chance even with Mobile and 7 DLC packs.

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I've said all the time it will come in 2012, but not because of their traditions, though that should mean something as well,

but I'm saying it because of only two reason: T2's 2012 budget and the new console gen.

 

That's all that I need to know. It's that important.

 

A) - If T2 later sets up V for an 2013 release they have screw up, big time. With a huge loss in 2012, plus their shares will shrink notably. Wall Street ain't waiting. It will put T2 back several financial years. V will probably make up for that and still some but the profit with V being released in 2012 is just so much more.

 

B) - The other huge reason for an 2012 release is the console generation shift at the end of 2012 throughout 2013 with Nintendo coming out before this Christmas and then Microsoft and Sony with their respective consoles being released somewhere in 2013.

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The sell-in for GTA V will be huge when stores stock up ahead of that launch.

Good point, provided the retailers can get enough financing tounge.gif. I've heard it's common practice for some of those big names to pay off suppliers over a fixed period, e.g. 3 months.

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TotesMagotes
2. San Andreas had its first trailer released on August 23, 2004, just over 2 months before it was released on October 26, 2004. It still became one of the most successful GTA titles in history, and the internet was no where near as large or widepsread as it is now, so internet marketing would not have been as effective. This leaves an October 2012 release date still very possible, even in June.

You cannot compare this at all to the GTA V situation. San Andreas may have had its first trailer in August, but they had already released tons of previews, screenshots, and magazine articles months before the trailer, starting in May. The marketing had already been going for 3 months when the first SA trailer released.

It can still be just as, or even more effective doing it this way, with barely any information.

 

Rockstar releases an epic trailer revealing the new GTA. People wait 8 months with nothing when all they can think about is GTA, constantly checking the newswire, checking forums etc.

 

All the sudden the new trailer comes out revealing a release date in 3 MONTHS!!! Followed by screenshots, reviews, new trailers etc. People start going crazy with their imaginations running wild.

 

Before we know it the summer blows by, GTAV releases in October where the game is extremely fresh in everyones minds leaving no doubt that this will trump all other games, Call of Duty who??? The game has record sales as people go crazy trying to get their hands on a copy.

 

Honestly, the second trailer could come out a month before release and everyone i know would buy this game. Rockstar knows this.

 

October release date is extremely plausible in my mind.

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it just can't happen , thats UNREAL to get GTA V out this year . i thinks thats NOT POSSIBLE , Max Payne 3 has 7 DLC and i think that TT expects to get that 1 billion from R* exactly from thees 7 map packs + R* released Max Payne 1 on phones for 2.99$ which TT  expect to bring millions.

Well, total rough estimates, but

 

Currently MP3 shipped 3 million units to retailers...back in '06 apparently a NA game cost $50 and wholesale price was $32. I'm guessing it's closer to 40 these days... so.

 

3,000,000 * ~40 = ~$120,000,000

 

There's no chance even with Mobile and 7 DLC packs.

Don't forget that games are significantly cheaper in many countries.

 

3m X 30 = 90m

 

Then you take off production costs, business contracts, job payments, bonuses and marketing.

I'm not going to speculate how much that is, but in T2's case, it can't be much left, if any at all.

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TheGtaArtist

Felipe Busquets‏ @FelipeBusquets

 

I just been advised, by a good friend of mine, about the stalking on my twitter account by some forums members. Gosh, guys relax a bit.

 

 

---

LOL!

G1T
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Dr. Zoidberg

I would like to add, with this new hype around GTA:V, as OP suggests, it with in itself creates its own marketing. This gives more time for R* to work on the game a little bit longer or to just hold out a bit longer to focus on Max Payne 3 marketing.

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guyzwitgunz

Damn right it should be October. Anything longer than that would be way too much of a drag and I'd feel like I wasted my part of my life being hyped for it.

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