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My theory concerning a 2013 release.


Bullit1990

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Hello all,

 

 

Lately there have been a lot of discussions about the release date or rather, release year of Gta V.

Allot of people say 2012, and allot of people say 2013.. Ofcourse most of us would love to have the game this year but there are a few people wanting it to be released in 2013 so the game is at it's best.

Now I have a small theory that might make the 2013 more realistic, and I might have some very, very little evidence to back my theory up.

 

I do believe this has been mentioned before, but hopefully not presented like this. But if so, my apologies.

 

Anyway...

Lately as most of us have already noticed, Rockstar pretty much sticks to one game a year.(excluding Dlc's and handheld games)

2010 was Red Dead Redemption, 2011 was L.A. Noire and 2012 is Max Payne 3.

After Max Payne 3, they will release Gta V, only the question is when..

 

Let's say Rockstar releases Gta in march or April 2013, that way, there will be plenty of time to advertise the sh*t out of it and Max gets his own full year.

In that year, they can release a Dlc or whatever other stuff and promote Gta V as much as they'd like and I'm guessing they're gonna do it big.

A release in October/November would mean a marketing time of around 6/7 moths. And at the same time their gonna advertise for Max Payne 3.

 

This just seems unlikely to me. After all, They claimed that Gta V is gonna be their biggest and most ambitious game. Surely that would mean that they would promote it like crazy, right?

And seeing as we haven't heard anything in almost 5 months time, I'm pretty sure that the actual marketing for Gta V has barely started.

All they did was releasing a trailer, showing the world it exists. And I think like others that the marketing will begin a while after Max Payne 3 is released.

My guess is that at the end of their marketing campaign, There won't be a gamer who doesn't know that a new Gta is hitting the shelves soon.

And all this attention that Rockstar gains will only benefit Max Payne 3 sales. Those who come searching for Gta info, will also run across Max Payne 3.

 

 

Now for 2014,

 

As many know Rockstar still has another game, Agent.

Not much is known about it. There's a image on Rockstar's website containing the name with the text below: Coming Soon.

But that's been there for quite a while and we have heard little to nothing about it yet.

 

Well in my own little search quest for Gta V info I run across 2 people who mentioned both Gta V and Agent on their CV.

Here are the links:

 

Example1

Example2

 

So if Rockstar is working on agent aswell, I'm guessing it will come out after Gta?

I mean, they are working on it for pretty long already so it doesn't seem to far fetched.

And by releasing Agent in 2014, it will still get some spotlight what's left from Gta V.

It adds up nicely to the "one game a year' theory.

And if I should believe the rumors, the next generation of consoles will be available 2014/2015 aswell.

That way, Rockstar released all it's current announced games before the next generation of consoles.

 

Just to be clear: This is all just based on my opinion sprinkled with a little bit of fact here and there...

So what do you guys think?

 

 

Ohh and Ps, why didn't that Brenden guy mention Agent? Kinda weird talking about the next Red Dead but not mentioning agent at all...

 

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1999-2008 Pretty much had more than one game a year. The same could still hold true for 2012.

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Altough I don't discard a 2013 release, I think the game will launch later this year. You mentioned Agent. If that game is still in production to be released for this gen consoles, I'm sure R* will leave a little time to promote it without having GTAV focusing all people's attention. It's the same thing that is happening with Max payne 3 but inverted.

 

Once GTAV is released they'll need sometime to promote it and it's future DLC. The sooner ther better in that case because by the time the release DLC, this console Gen would be almost saying goodbye and that's the time when Agent should be promoted and released if R* wants to have the last portion of this Gen's cake. Again, I think of a 2012 realease if Agent is not frozen for next gen. That and the fact that fiscal year ends in march. I know the game is going to sell a lot but even GTA needs almost a month to win what they stated in the press conference. Those earnings are something they have to present by that time unless something goes wrong.

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I think it's too soon to even think about it... All we have is a trailer, once Max Payne is released we will know much more about GTA V and can start discussing it's release time... until then it's just guesses.

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vicetremendouslysoon

I'm really hoping for a release this October, in relation to the other GTAs. It gives them around 6 months to market it after Max Payne also..

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MIKON8ERISBACK

Flame wars, sh*tty speculation topics (no offense), fake news bulletins, in your face promotions for MP3 (don't make me say the name); a much less popular franchise, this is gonna be a LONG month if more info isn't released within the next week.

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Strange dozingoff.gif we haven't heard about Agent in while, also 2013 seems a bit "Unknown" (Idk what to say lol) For 2012 it's likely, but still no Release Date. bored.gif

user posted image
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Johnny_Cash1983

What i think is going to happen

 

2012-Max Payne 3- fall-Gta5

2013-Agent

2014-Red Dead R-----------

2015-Midnight Club

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I agree with Bullit1990. He is right. It would be stupit of Rockstar Games / Take-Two to release two games in one year, that does not make sense, the investors would not be happy if Rockstar Games doesn't have a new game release in 2013.

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MiamiVice1984
I agree with Bullit1990. He is right. It would be stupit of Rockstar Games / Take-Two to release two games in one year, that does not make sense, the investors would not be happy if Rockstar Games doesn't have a new game release in 2013.

Im sure Agent will come to light in 2013.

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Agent Might be 2013. Bud i think Rockstar Games has better plans with that title. I think they will delay it and keep it delayed until the new Sony & Microsoft console's are here..

Edited by JohnnyBNL
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I just really can't see this game coming out in 2013, it's been in the works for years now...

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Agent Might be 2013. Bud i think Rockstar Games has better plans with that title. I think they will delay it and keep it delayed until the new Sony & Microsoft console's are here..

Agent's a Sony exclusive. (at least last I heard)

 

OT:

You're forgetting that GTA promotes itself, it doesn't need the extensive marketing campaign that Max Payne3 is getting. All Rockstar has to do is post "GTA V is here!" on the newswire and everyone will go batsh*t crazy.

 

Here's my theory:

Max Payne3's going to be big, but not that big. Profits will be alright for a while, but eventually its going to fade. (say 3-6 months)

I'm sure this isn't needed, but here's a crappy timeline.

 

May 15th: Max Payne3 is released

May 1st - June nth: Hefty Marketing Campaign. GTA V info sprinkled hear and there (including GTAV Trailer #2).

July - August: GTA V Release date announced. Max Payne3 profits start wearing down.

September - November: Max Payne3 profits settle at an even rate (no more spikes or dips). GTA V Trailer/Release.

 

Keep in mind that this is just a theory, I do not necessarily believe that things will happen exactly like this, or even remotely like this.

 

My point is: GTA V's sales won't be affected by a large or small marketing campaign. As long as we have Internet/Word of mouth/TV, GTA V will do just fine.

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Agent's a Sony exclusive. (at least last I heard)

It maybe ain't no exclusive anymore.

 

Source

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I agree with Bullit1990. He is right. It would be stupit of Rockstar Games / Take-Two to release two games in one year, that does not make sense, the investors would not be happy if Rockstar Games doesn't have a new game release in 2013.

Well, they released both Midnight Club: LA and GTA IV in 2008.

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One problem with releasing GTA V this fall is that it'll compete with games such as Bioshock Infinite, the next COD, Resident Evil 6, Assasin's Creed 3, and others I haven't mentioned. A release between March and May of 2013 gives a pretty big window to release a title without very much opposition from large title games like i've mentioned. R* isn't just going to plop this game out when there are 2 or 3 other huge titles being released at the same time. It eats into immediate sales and they know it.

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@ OP

 

Interesting theory mate.

 

I agree that factually, Adding all the factors up, GTA V looks likely to be a 2013 release what with the "one game a year" theory and the simple fact that the game will need a decent marketing stretch.

 

But...

 

The financial report did show that R* hope to make a stupid amount of profit this fiscal year (April 2012-April 2013) so maybe that could mean GTA V comes out later this year, and then when all of the hype has died down around Feburary, They finnaly calculate there profits? Who knows...But another thing i dont get is why R* would have released the trailer in November 2011 if they planned to release the game in 2013? Why they would make people wait nearly 2 years for a game i dont know? As people have said, they are losing interest and hype around the game, which isnt good...

 

So i really hope R* release it at the end of this year sometime, and i also predicted 24th October on the release competition...But i dont think we will have any accurate guess until we get some more info.

 

Good post though mate smile.gifalien.gif

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Barring unexpected personal or national tragedy, nothing will delay GTA V except not being done. There's no "one game per year" strategy. There's no calculation of competition. The uncertainties of development are a natural force of delay and it would be counterproductive to introduce unnatural delays.

 

A movie get delayed for competitive reasons but a game does not, at least not late in development. Games have limited competitive life because they become technologically obsolete. Delaying a nearly complete game because of competition only increases the risk that its innovations will be surpassed and novelty diminished.

 

If you look back at all the original, missed release dates of Rockstar's second round of games for this generation, you can see that each year had two major games scheduled. Red Dead Redemption was for fall 2009. Max Payne 3 was for winter 2009. Agent was for 2010. L.A. Noire was for any year since 2007 or so. Plus the GTA IV episodes and other title's DLC packs mixed in there. If any one of these games had NOT been delayed, instead of them ALL being delayed, there would have been two AAAs in a year. In the alternate magical universe with no delays each Rockstar studio would be on its 3rd AAA game for this generation by now and we'd already be playing GTA V.

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In the alternate magical universe with no delays each Rockstar studio would be on its 3rd AAA game for this generation by now and we'd already be playing GTA V.

The fact is that we don't live in that universe. Whatever Rockstar intended to do, they have, for the last two years, released one game a year.

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You see, the thing with a 2013 release vs a 2012 release is actually quite big, when looking at TTWO itself. They have stated they want Fiscal 2013 to be their best year ever. fiscal 2013 ends March 31st, 2013. And knowing how long it takes for shares to increase(It took GTA IV around 4 or 5 months to reach something that is less than they are predicting if I remember right), GTA V being released in 2013 is a definite no go. I can guarantee it 100% that as long as TTWO are predicting record breaking shares for F2013, GTA V will be released in 2012. Only if their prediction suddenly changes, for the worse, we will know GTA V has slipped into 2013.

 

Also you guys forgetting that one portfolio which showed some Agent screen shots? It listed GTA IV's DLC with a 2009 date, Agent with a TBA date and GTA V with a 2011 date. From what I can see, those dates, are, or were, the predicted release dates of said games. If it is indeed true that GTA V was supposed to be a 2011 title, there is honestly no reason why R* can't release two games in the same year. Not only would it be better for shares, but it would be better overall. That way the better half of 2013 could see the R* North team bringing Agent to the front-lines of their focus. With a release in possibly late 2013.

 

Also I believe GTA V, for the most part, has been finished for awhile, but R* kept it a secret because they wanted to get MP3 out of the way. October was the the 10th anniversary for GTA III, and the 14th anniversary for the series in whole. At the time they didn't think MP3 would be delayed, so they found it the right time to announce GTA V. What with MP3 being released in 5 months, they thought they could use the rest of Spring and summer to hype up GTA V for a release in October, the 15th anniversary of the series. And that Is what I believe they will continue with after MP3 releases 5 weeks from Tuesday. Only with a shorter marketing season. But as they know, and as we know, GTA doesn't need a long marketing period. San Andreas for example, only had a 2 month trailer season, and it went on to be the best selling GTA game to date. That means after MP3 releases, they will have around 5 months of marketing GTA V, and then a release in mid-late October, just in time for the 15th anniversary.

 

Just my 2 cents.

Edited by ioN
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