Wall Street traders expect GTA by early 2012

[Dymez]

 

NEW YORK—Options bulls looked for gains for Take-Two Interactive in the second half of 2011, when the videogame maker's next blockbuster is likely to hit shelves.

 

In heavy volume, traders established bullish positions that work best if Take-Two's stock sees modest gains into the summer and then pops in the back end of the year. Wall Street analysts expect the latest iteration of the popular crime epic "Grand Theft Auto" to be released by early next year.

 

On Thursday, bullish options traders built "calendar spreads" by selling nearly 10,000 "calls" that expire in June and then buying the same number of contracts that expire in December. The calls grant the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the stock for $20 before expiration.

 

"Ideally, the stock moves toward $20 through mid-June and those calls expire worthless, and then the stock sees a strong performance through the year end," said WhatsTrading.com analyst Frederic Ruffy.

 

Shares of Take-Two have rallied more than 40% in 2011. Most of those gains accrued in early February, when Take-Two and game-maker peers posted robust quarterly earnings. Take-Two's stock rose 2% to close at $17.41.

 

Analysts at Wedbush Securities Inc. said in a note to clients Thursday that Rockstar Games, Take-Two's publishing arm, is likely to release "Grand Theft Auto" before January. The stock jumped about 10% this week after the company released a crime-fiction inspired "L.A. Noire." New York-based Take-Two is due to post quarterly results after the market closes Tuesday.

 

More than 37,000 bullish calls changed hands versus just 200 "puts," Trade Alert data showed. More calls traded Thursday than in any single day in more than three years, while overall volume in Take-Two's options was almost 20 times the daily average.

 

Elsewhere, contrarian investors looked to establish hedges to protect against a relapse by health-care stocks even as the sector scraped new highs.

 

Shares in the high-flying SPDR Health Care ETF rose to a multiyear high early in the session, but closed down 0.2% to $36.34. Typically a haven for defensive investors, health-care stocks lead all groups on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index this year, up 15%, compared with a 6.8% rise in the benchmark.

 

Thursday's trading saw large buyers of puts that grant the right to sell shares of the XLV for $35 by September expiration.

 

"It's a plain-vanilla position to protect to the downside," said Michael Schwartz, chief options strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

 

Cautious options activity in the health-care ETF continued a trend seen earlier this week. On Tuesday, traders scooped up more than 40,000 of the September $35 puts. The week's activity has driven up XLV puts' open interest, or the number of outstanding contracts, to the highest level in five months.

 

The only why reason I posted this is because these big time traders usually have the inside scoop on what's going to happen 6 months in advance. Anything to help their shares rise. This holds (at least) some validity.

[AndreaXCII]

although i didnt understand the stock market lingo i get the jist and i so hope for it

ive seen people say on here its been done for years and its delayed and that it hasnt been started at all but i think its in the voice recording stages due to the fact that there was that casting sheet with James Pedeastons name on it, what other game would have that unless they were knocking GTA off and how Gilbert Goddfreid said something about being in it, which i could see

 

but one thing is why would they cast for James Pedeaston? unless it was motion capture or something along that, not voice acting

 

but im off topic so ill end this

[Long_Haired_Boy]

Max Payne 3 for the fall and GTA Next for 2012

 

Only make sense because of the announcement that is going to be at E3.

[Finn 7 five 11]

Yeah i am pretty sure these business guys know about as much as we do, and their guess is as good as ours.

[TenEightyOne]

Yeah i am pretty sure these business guys know about as much as we do, and their guess is as good as ours.

I think that's true... a 'big release' doesn't necessarily mean GTA.

 

Btw, when ARE you going to take that 6-year old article out of your sig? Many of the stats are wrong in that article and neither of those editions of console are available any more...

[Official General]

I'm pretty sure one financial analyst stated a while back that the next GTA will be coming out in 2011 at the end of it. Well guess what ? We are halfway through 2011 and still no announcement. These guys know just as muh as we do.

[ministryman]

@Ten EightyOne

in my opinion, there's only one franchise that R* has done to be called a blockbuster(hint hint)

[creat3d22]

These announcements come out every year, not the first time for V and there was a few for IV as well...

Bottomline: these guys may be able to get stocks moving with their "predictions", they're still wrong every time and don't know sh*t about how complete the game is.

 

[tempz1992]

A game is Developed within the quaterly bugets, or yearly, they are not just sprung into action momentraly, if there is cash to make a game at the end and they need to use there buget they will, if not they wont

[TenEightyOne]

@Ten EightyOne

in my opinion, there's only one franchise that R* has done to be called a blockbuster(hint hint)

Yes, it just depends who's telling you!

 

I thought this line deserved extra attention;

 

 

Analysts at Wedbush Securities Inc. said in a note to clients Thursday that Rockstar Games, Take-Two's publishing arm, is likely to release "Grand Theft Auto" before January.

 

Wow, what would happen to the stock if THAT happened?

 

 

The stock jumped about 10% this week after the company released a crime-fiction inspired "L.A. Noire."

 

Ah, that makes sense. So why would they announce the potential (and entirely unconfirmed) release of GTAV?

 

 

New York-based Take-Two is due to post quarterly results after the market closes Tuesday.

 

I see now

 

[Finn 7 five 11]

 

Yeah i am pretty sure these business guys know about as much as we do, and their guess is as good as ours.

I think that's true... a 'big release' doesn't necessarily mean GTA.

 

Btw, when ARE you going to take that 6-year old article out of your sig? Many of the stats are wrong in that article and neither of those editions of console are available any more...

YEs the article is very dated but the specs are still the same (except for the usb ports ect ect). Just to make it more accurate i will look for a newer source

 

 

Edit: looked for new sources, i did find one decent new source but the specs were wrong, what does it matter if its old if it correct anyway? At school i used a 30 year old maths book for year 11.

Edited May 20, 2011 by finn4life

[Kimd41]

Not saying that this is fake or anything, but a source would be appreciated.

[creat3d22]

Not saying that this is fake or anything, but a source would be appreciated.

Here's one from the WSJ:

[LINK]

 

Google is your friend.

[Morsaw]

Now is the time to buy Take-Two Stocks! *Calls Stock Broker* Seems legit, id say were ganna get an announcement at E3 and a first trailer down in October, followed by a release in early 2012.

[RED_]

This is only being released because they heard about the rumours surrounding E3. They know about as much as we do. Stock goes up and down based on rumours and predictions like this. The more likely the rumour the higher the stock will gain. They probably feel that the one about GTA V being mentioned at E3 is pretty big. This is probably why the big big companies are staying quite and a few in NY may think about it as they don't know as much and may have only come into the whole E3 info.

[WhistleBlower]

 

although i didnt understand the stock market lingo i get the jist and i so hope for it

ive seen people say on here its been done for years and its delayed and that it hasnt been started at all but i think its in the voice recording stages due to the fact that there was that casting sheet with James Pedeastons name on it, what other game would have that unless they were knocking GTA off and how Gilbert Goddfreid said something about being in it, which i could see

 

but one thing is why would they cast for James Pedeaston? unless it was motion capture or something along that, not voice acting

 

but im off topic so ill end this

Oh, f*ck Gilbert Gottfried. Seriously. The guy is nothing more than an attention-seeking washed-up insensitive prick (see his comment on the disaster in Japan) who preys on the gullibility of others. You need to stop believing everything you hear. Just because it comes out of the mouth of a celebrity doesn't mean it's true. Isn't that why the people at Rockstar Games responded to the situation with a Problem Child movie poster?

Edited May 21, 2011 by WhistleBlower