GTA V unlikely until 2012 - Analyst

[maxopower]

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey:

 

When GTA V does come out, "likely" in Take-Two's fiscal 2012 (April 2012-March 2013), Hickey believes it will be yet another blockbuster, selling upward of 16 million copies and generating over $750 million by itself. He predicts that year will also see the release of BioShock Infinite, which he estimates will sell over 4 million copies and $182 million in sales.

 

Sounds like a pretty save bet, and what some of us have been saying for some time now. There's really not a lot to disagree with, if any a all.

 

 

Entire article

[AnthMUFC-Champs]

Sounds like a safe bet, i believe that GTA V will indeed be released in late 2012 however i hope it hits stores earlier.

Edited November 25, 2010 by AnthMUFC-Champs

[Helsinki]

Here's some info about this analyst: http://stars.ign.com/objects/061/061994.html

 

 

Mike Hickey is a Senior Research Analyst following emerging and existing technology companies for Janco Partners. Prior to joining Janco Partners in early 2004, Mike was a Financial Advisor with the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) working with institutional and high net worth individuals. Prior to UBS, Mike spent over 5 years with Salomon Smith Barney as an Investment Management Analyst working with institutional clientele. Mike received a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance-Real Estate from Colorado State University (CSU) and an MBA from the University of Denver (DU). Mike holds series 7 and 66 securities licenses.

 

His previous predictions include:

- "BioShock is coming to Wii, PS2 and handhelds" (link)

- "Sony might come up with a PS3 without a Blu-Ray drive" (link2)

 

Clearly this isn't a guy you should trust very much, even though he might have connections...

 

Anyways, I really hope the next big GTA comes out in 2011.

[mikkenugent]

Im guessin Q4 of 2011...

[DKTEAM]

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey:

 

When GTA V does come out, "likely" in Take-Two's fiscal 2012 (April 2012-March 2013), Hickey believes it will be yet another blockbuster, selling upward of 16 million copies and generating over $750 million by itself. He predicts that year will also see the release of BioShock Infinite, which he estimates will sell over 4 million copies and $182 million in sales.

 

Sounds like a pretty save bet, and what some of us have been saying for some time now. There's really not a lot to disagree with, if any a all.

 

 

Entire article

Narh, i think that it comes out in December next year

- Maybe an announcement in this april?

 

I hope so!

[Rhoda]

As much as 2011 would be welcome, I really wouldn't want them to rush anything. Considering we're about 5 weeks from the end of 2010, it doesn't seem realistic that we'd see a GTA in less than 12 months. Maybe an announcement, certainly an announcement in fact, but I hope time is taken. I'm perfectly content with waiting 18 months.

[maxopower]

But I still think this ˅˅˅ is a pretty good point why it would not get a 2011 release:

 

 

Hickey believes that Take-Two's 2011 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2011, until March 31, 2012, will feature two major game highlights: Max Payne 3 and L.A. Noire. He thinks those two games will lead a software lineup--which may also include the long-delayed Duke Nukem Forever--that can make the company profitable in a year without a GTA or a Red Dead game.

 

If LA:N is set to Q2 2011, then Rockstar is probably just going to hype the sh*t out of it up to release. Charter/gameplay/cinematic trailers, screenshots and previews, all of that, just like they did the last 3 to 4 month up to the RDR release. And the GTA in 2012.

[Snake Without a Tongue]

It makes me think of that episode of Mr Show where David Cross played the reporter outside of a hostage situation. What's the time frame for resolving this thing? I don't know, I literally don't know. Any guesses? Ten minutes or... forever, I dunno.

 

Any guess is a good guess at this point.

[jnzooger]

Analysts take the same stuff we know and make a guess about it. The theories on this forum are as good as anything any analyst says.

[TommyMufc-Champs]

Well I think we will see a announcement sometime In 2011. Maybe early 2011, realese date would be around October 2012.

[Jabalous]

Using Rockstar marketing's pattern, we can be sure that Agent won't release in 2011, but it will more than likely in 2012. So, there's no new GTA in 2012 because Rockstar won't release two triple A projects with the same impact in the same year, let alone that it's the same studio, Rockstar North.

 

 

[Duxfever]

Using Rockstar marketing's pattern, we can be sure that Agent won't release in 2011, but it will more than likely in 2012. So, there's no new GTA in 2012 because Rockstar won't release two triple A projects with the same impact in the same year, let alone that it's the same studio, Rockstar North.

You should be an analyst.

[BrownBear]

As long as I see an annoucement and subsequent trailers in early 2011 I will be fine.

LA noire and Agent can satisfy me until then.

[TheTruePiMs]

 

As much as 2011 would be welcome, I really wouldn't want them to rush anything. Considering we're about 5 weeks from the end of 2010, it doesn't seem realistic that we'd see a GTA in less than 12 months. Maybe an announcement, certainly an announcement in fact, but I hope time is taken. I'm perfectly content with waiting 18 months.

San Andreas (biggest GTA ever ) was announced 6 months before its release (http://uk.ps2.ign.com/articles/495/495767p1.html) and it was just 2 years after Vice City.

 

San Andreas announcement : 04/01/2004

San Andreas release : 10/26-29/2004

 

Waiting too long for the game wouldn't be a good thing, see what's going on with Gran Turismo 5, people were expecting A LOT OF THINGS after 6 years of developping and multiples delays, but it seems that people are a bit disappointed, me first...

 

Anyway So I am confident about the new GTA coming in fall 2011

Edited November 25, 2010 by TheTruePiMs

[SLRMC93]

Soooooo should we take this as an announcement? I hope so.

[iightsonkoo]

smfh i dont care when they release it

 

as long as it's good

[MostOfAll]

If they release it later than 2012, I'm expecting a killer game. They could learn how to fix the mistakes they made in Agent and L.A. Noire.

[Duxfever]

If they release it later than 2012, I'm expecting a killer game. They could learn how to fix the mistakes they made in Agent and L.A. Noire.

I know, right?...I was pretty amazed at how limited both games were on release..

[maxopower]

Using Rockstar marketing's pattern, we can be sure that Agent won't release in 2011, but it will more than likely in 2012. So, there's no new GTA in 2012 because Rockstar won't release two triple A projects with the same impact in the same year, let alone that it's the same studio, Rockstar North.

But still, you can't be sure about if agent will come before GTA. RDR was first seen like 5 or 6 years before release.

[Phatgordo13]

 

Clearly this isn't a guy you should trust very much, even though he might have connections...

 

Anyways, I really hope the next big GTA comes out in 2011.

 

Even if you are right and the guy is a complete know nothing he certainly has plenty resources at his expense and it really doesnt take a gaming expert to foresee a company's marketing strategy, something he probably understands better.

 

 

Using Rockstar marketing's pattern, we can be sure that Agent won't release in 2011, but it will more than likely in 2012. So, there's no new GTA in 2012 because Rockstar won't release two triple A projects with the same impact in the same year, let alone that it's the same studio, Rockstar North.

 

You gotta get off this my friend.

 

I wouldn't expect Agent in 2011 either but that certainly doesnt mean Rockstar wont put out multiple triple A titles. Even the article points to the probability of MP3 along side LA Noire, with a Duke Nukem release added. While of course its all speculative, there is no reason that a company with the broad reach of Rockstar not being able nor wanting to release several major titles in the same year. Its all about profit in a fiscal year, and while they might not sell like GTA if you can make as much money without GTA....why wouldnt you?

 

I think all signs point to a late 2012 - early 2013 release.

 

 

I know, right?...I was pretty amazed at how limited both games were on release..

 

Oh you've played them already? How were they?

[crackdawg]

The 2012 assumption takes into consideration factors like combined marketing costs and demographic spending habits..despite what is said by PR these AAA studios don't publish titles that cost tens of millions to develop, just because they like making games..

 

This has been explained by even people without haters here though, this forum section grows daily ^^

 

[LuisBellic]

Maybe R* could make a small GTA(like LCS and VCS). In 2011

[TommyMufc-Champs]

No they are focusing on GTA V. R* wont make a game like LCS, why do you think they are taking so long?

[Rawon]

Hi, but, this new gta will be good adapted for pc, or it will be full of bugs like gta IV ?

 

regards.

[Duxfever]

I know, right?...I was pretty amazed at how limited both games were on release..

 

Oh you've played them already? How were they?

Haha, no I was just joking because Allen14n kinda made it seem that way.

[Zee]

Well, seeing as Agent is going to be released in 2011, with the sequel coming sometime in 2014, and max payne 3 coming out around then which of course leavs LA Noire 2 which will come out in 2020, with Agent 3 and Max Payne after that. LA Noire 3 and Red Dead 3 will be announced late 2030. R* also wants to flesh out some new titles as well, so we might possibly see a GTA announced by atleast Q4 2050 at the earliest.

[crackdawg]

 

No they are focusing on GTA V. R* wont make a game like LCS, why do you think they are taking so long?

PS2, PSP, DS, iOS engines are already written and licensed..It takes one of their studios under one quarter to develop those low cost engines from scratch as well.

 

I could actually see them putting one of those out along the road map to fuel the franchise. I'm agreeing with the 'experts' and some other members on the mainline production though, it makes sense even with their high-production global resources.

[jnzooger]

No they are focusing on GTA V. R* wont make a game like LCS, why do you think they are taking so long?

PS2, PSP, DS, iOS engines are already written and licensed..It takes one of their studios under one quarter to develop those low cost engines from scratch as well.

 

I could actually see them putting one of those out along the road map to fuel the franchise. I'm agreeing with the 'experts' and some other members on the mainline production though, it makes sense even with their high-production global resources.

Don't forget the Wii. RAGE on the Wii exists and a Wii exclusive GTA would be awesome.

[Ryder 556]

Using Rockstar marketing's pattern, we can be sure that Agent won't release in 2011, but it will more than likely in 2012. So, there's no new GTA in 2012 because Rockstar won't release two triple A projects with the same impact in the same year, let alone that it's the same studio, Rockstar North.

But still, you can't be sure about if agent will come before GTA. RDR was first seen like 5 or 6 years before release.

But at that time RDR was being developed exclusively for the Playstation 2.

 

@Zee: I've never seen so much win before.

[maxopower]

But at that time RDR was being developed exclusively for the Playstation 2.

 

 

And..... how would that effect the release in any major ways.....