North Korea attacks South

[Kevin...]

China only really supports NK because it doesn't want the flood of millions of refugees coming into its back yard when someone finally takes aggressive action against NK. There's no economic or ideological benefit from backing up NK for China. They both claim to be communist countries but do so in vastly different ways that are similar only in their delusional label.

 

Whereas in contrast China has massive economic links to a lot of the UN and Western world, I'm pretty sure it'd rather just beef up border patrol than lose a sh*t load of business because they stood up for some ideal that they don't even share with the country they're defending.

In more words than I cared to use...that is basically what I meant.

[D- Ice]

 

Russia and China, despite appearances are pretty much oligarchies now. Ruled by a cabal of the wealthy elite. Russian mafia, party members and so on. We're a long way from the Iron Curtain and an East and West firmly divided by ideology. Now, all we want is for the wheels of business to turn as always. International co-operation means everyone keeps making money. Neither Russia nor China have any time for a Stalinist loose cannon like Kim Jong Il.

 

Money wise, a war is not desirable. But we need to acheive two big aims:

 

1. Take out Kim Jong Il. His death will lessen tensions in the region considerably.

2. Once Kim Jong Il is gone, ensure that North Korea is not in a posistion to perfect their nuclear technlogy. We don't want to face this same problem down the line.

 

If we could, I would use China to lure him out and then simply have him murdered.  He's the problem, it's not the fault of the starving peasants or even his generals. HE has to go.

Just murder him and use the chaos that follows to get a good, lasting foothold in the country.

Great points there mate, but didn't that plan already happen before bro? Maybe you weren't there, but you're the well-informed intelligent type, so I'm sure you heard about it on the news.

 

Yes I completely agree that it's not the fault of the starving people (I'm guessing mos are urban not peasants) nor even his General "Yes Men".

 

Also, I agree that everyone just wants business to keep rolling - no more dumb idiological differences between the West, Russia and China. However that does not negate rivalries for who exactly gets the long-term foothold, and who pulls the New North Korea's puppet-strings the most. And if need be, rivals may even enlist the help of other parties who do indeed have ideological differences with whoever they want to fight off.

Now I am not making any claims or drawing parallels with current wars in Afghanistan/Iraq with that third bit, as it's quite controversial and not something I know much about, but it is far from impossible IMO.

 

What I think will happen is that South Korea will fight back, and likely wipe the floor with the poor, isolated North. However, my worries lie with the poor, oppressed and long-suffering North Koreans who will most likely be the most to suffer out of this hidiously ruthless, self-indulgent stupidity from their ruling elite.

Edited November 23, 2010 by D- Ice

[Max]

Realistically can America or most other nations actually afford to even think about going to war again? Maybe NK have found the perfect time to take the piss, if this had happened 10 years ago there would have already been carriers and the like on route.

Yeah, I would totally agree with that if it wasn't for the fact that its f*cking North Korea.

 

Lets be honest here, NK is one of the lest deadliest countries. Its like midget with anger issues and a little man's complex. Sure he can caused a few problems and stir the kettle a bit but compared to, oh I dunno, Iraq or Afghanistan, this is an easy win. We are dealing with a different type of people in a totally different geography. Even if there was a full blown conflict I don't see a war lasting very long. Like a week to a month long. With USA tag teaming with Canada, most of the EU, Australia, and the rest of our buddies around the world, they would not stand a chance being attacked by air or sea. Even if sh*t hit the fan we wouldn't need nukes.

I don't think it would be the military push over you're predicting. The BBC has an interesting run down of estimated NK forces and with over 1 million men under arms and ageing but still effective Military equipment. The population is brainwashed into thinking North Korea is the greatest on Earth and will fight and die for Dear Leader. Kim Jong Il's cult of personality is overwhelming. Furthermore the geography of North Korea is diverse and actually extremely difficult to fight in.

 

Rolling mountains, extremely harsh winters. The USA lost 53,000 men in the Korean War and the fighting there was some of the fiercest in the 20th century.

 

North Korea might seem backwards but I think they'd be an extremely tough enemy to fight.

[trip]

Most likely, nothing is gonna happen.

That is my feeling too. I think it is just getting a media explosion with that focus on peoples fears to sell papers, internet ad space or what have ya.

 

The initial attack was like 'I told you to stay off my lawn' and the retaliation was pretty much just trowing a rock over the fence into the lawn they were warned to stay off of. I had a busy day, so I can't say I read a boat load on the topic, but if I recall there were no fatalities, and only a few injured people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

As long as ,Alan Alda, isn't allowed to write or direct the next version of M*A*S*H everything will be A-OK.

[ddyoung]

i think that the north is just flexing its "muscle" , but if there are any more incidents like this, i dont think there will be many choices other than war

[Moth]

I say we bomb them back to the stone a... wait, they are already in the f*cking stone age, so that won't do anything. Carry on.

 

Seriously, the Korean war must end, the war has been on since the 50's, since they had a armistice, meaning the war is not over. This is one of the few things left over from the cold war, and someone needs to become the victor. You could say that the South won, since they are prospering, and the North is a total sh*t hole, but families are still separated from each other and it would be a good thing for the soldier that fought during fighting in the Korean war, finally see their country united, after a really long time.

[The-King]

 

Realistically can America or most other nations actually afford to even think about going to war again? Maybe NK have found the perfect time to take the piss, if this had happened 10 years ago there would have already been carriers and the like on route.

Yeah, I would totally agree with that if it wasn't for the fact that its f*cking North Korea.

 

Lets be honest here, NK is one of the lest deadliest countries. Its like midget with anger issues and a little man's complex. Sure he can caused a few problems and stir the kettle a bit but compared to, oh I dunno, Iraq or Afghanistan, this is an easy win. We are dealing with a different type of people in a totally different geography. Even if there was a full blown conflict I don't see a war lasting very long. Like a week to a month long. With USA tag teaming with Canada, most of the EU, Australia, and the rest of our buddies around the world, they would not stand a chance being attacked by air or sea. Even if sh*t hit the fan we wouldn't need nukes.

I don't think it would be the military push over you're predicting. The BBC has an interesting run down of estimated NK forces and with over 1 million men under arms and ageing but still effective Military equipment. The population is brainwashed into thinking North Korea is the greatest on Earth and will fight and die for Dear Leader. Kim Jong Il's cult of personality is overwhelming. Furthermore the geography of North Korea is diverse and actually extremely difficult to fight in.

 

Rolling mountains, extremely harsh winters. The USA lost 53,000 men in the Korean War and the fighting there was some of the fiercest in the 20th century.

 

North Korea might seem backwards but I think they'd be an extremely tough enemy to fight.

While that is true you also have to take into account that they're not just some rebellious guerrilla fighting force like we faced in most of our recent wars. They're an organized army; like any war, just take out the head and the body is guaranteed to crumble, a lack of a military hierarchy in a battle like that would be devastating to their forces,. It's not like the war would be with some shadow of an enemy who only pops their head up at the most opportune moment with no real leader and only a few idolic figures to guide them. Cut the chain of command and the rest of the battle would wage itself.

 

You also have to take into account that during Korea we were pretty much using the same kit that we did during WWII. Now while the DPRK is pretty much still in the Vietnam era in regards to their military technology we're a good twenty or more years ahead of the rest of the world. Putting us a near century ahead of them in regards to capability.

Edited November 24, 2010 by The-King

[Wolfenhoffen]

Must have been a pretty good day for defense industry stocks on Wall Street!

[UNRATED69]

I've got it! The answer to all our problems! The final solution! The one to end it all!

 

World Peace or GTFO.

[Mr.Mister]

All I gotta say is, let the old men do war themselves without getting the younger generations involved. I'm so sick of this sh*t

[Rown]

 

Must have been a pretty good day for defense industry stocks on Wall Street!

 

Industries

Aerospace/Defense Major Diversified

11/23/10 Today's Change: -0.19%

 

Aerospace/Defense Products & Services

11/23/10 Today's Change: -0.36%

 

 

Specific Companies (from NYSE)

Boeing

11/23/10 Today's Change: 0.67%

 

General Dynamics

11/23/10 Today's Change: 0.33%

 

Lockheed Martin

11/23/10 Today's Change: 0.47%

 

 

Rown

[SuperShark]

We might just have a World War III on our hands.

 

Who's up for a Nuclear war?

After all the destruction we are going to have a Fist of the North Star or a Book of Eli scenario.

 

 

[K^2]

AA defense systems have lagged behind the ability to suppress them from the air for about 3 decades now. Just look at the Israeli use of SEAD in Lebanon-

> Drone aircraft "persuades" forced to turn on radar systems

> Radar systems are hit from stand-off range of at least 50 miles by anti-radiation missiles (either air or sea launched). SAMs are now blind.

> Aircraft come in to "mop up" remaining missile systems.

 

It' a very similar system to that used over Kosovo and rates of attrition for aircraft were incredibly low then. No reason to believe that the DPRK are any better equipped in air defense terms than Serbia were in '99- especially with the various arms and trading embargoes stifling more over-the-counter methods of getting Materiel into the north.

Except this only works on the 80's systems. Modern Russian SAM sites never go into active radar mode. The SAM's own radar is active, but it doesn't activate on the launch pad, like it did on ye olde systems, but when it's already in the air, instead.

 

So basically, the only way you are taking out a SAM site like this is by finding it with a sat, and hitting it with a cruise missile.

 

And no, NK isn't currently equipped with anything even close. But Serbia doesn't share a border with Russia, US had no intentions of occupying Kosovo, and Russia was still trying to recover from all the economic problems. NK, in contrast, is too close to home, US would be there for a long time, and Russia is currently trying to strengthen its hold over the region. I point you to operation in Georgia, which in big part was a response to Georgia's intent to join NATO. (There was also oil/gas involved, but that seems to be the case with every single war in the past 70 years.) I can't say exactly how likely Russia is to assist NK with military hardware, but if they do, they are going to want to show off, so they'll send best of the best. And US has nothing to deal with that without taking sufficiently serious losses.

[meta187]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On a serious tip, as Waddy said it may be the perfect time for NK to test the waters.

 

Allied forces are overburdened and spread thin as it stands with all of our current engagements, we can't even beat our chest at the moment and expect to be taken seriously by a nation that has nuclear capability regardless of how impoverished the infrastructure may appear.

[Waddy]

Yeah. I get where you are coming from, but I just can't see it. For as much as everyone bitches about China loving NK more than the US and backing them till the death, I think we would quicker see them siding with us and our trade sharing rather than side with a country that provides nothing aside from its human shield value.

China will never support NK in public, however there is nothing saying they wouldnt supply weapons and other methods of help if it did get messy.

For the Western World to stop buying things from China though, would hurt them pretty bad so thats why they will always side with USA et al. Also if they go to a meeting of the powers to discuss this then China will have to abide by the majority.

NK have 1million troops ready to go so I read, thats quite worrying. I dont understand any race these days opting for these tactics when the other side of the coin is so much better for the people and the country, its archaic.

[Ferddy987]

 

Yeah. I get where you are coming from, but I just can't see it. For as much as everyone bitches about China loving NK more than the US and backing them till the death, I think we would quicker see them siding with us and our trade sharing rather than side with a country that provides nothing aside from its human shield value.

China will never support NK in public, however there is nothing saying they wouldnt supply weapons and other methods of help if it did get messy.

For the Western World to stop buying things from China though, would hurt them pretty bad so thats why they will always side with USA et al. Also if they go to a meeting of the powers to discuss this then China will have to abide by the majority.

NK have 1million troops ready to go so I read, thats quite worrying. I dont understand any race these days opting for these tactics when the other side of the coin is so much better for the people and the country, its archaic.

So, in other words. NK has over 1,000,000+ Troops at there disposal, very high moral, a rocky country, and Nukes. So, basically, were f*cked.

[Waddy]

Yeah. I get where you are coming from, but I just can't see it. For as much as everyone bitches about China loving NK more than the US and backing them till the death, I think we would quicker see them siding with us and our trade sharing rather than side with a country that provides nothing aside from its human shield value.

China will never support NK in public, however there is nothing saying they wouldnt supply weapons and other methods of help if it did get messy.

For the Western World to stop buying things from China though, would hurt them pretty bad so thats why they will always side with USA et al. Also if they go to a meeting of the powers to discuss this then China will have to abide by the majority.

NK have 1million troops ready to go so I read, thats quite worrying. I dont understand any race these days opting for these tactics when the other side of the coin is so much better for the people and the country, its archaic.

So, in other words. NK has over 1,000,000+ Troops at there disposal, very high moral, a rocky country, and Nukes. So, basically, were f*cked.

Not really. I dont think NK have any intentions of going to war. I think they have picked a perfect time to take the piss, thats what they seem to get their rocks off too. Its like the kid that waits till you're 100 yards away then calls you a dick and runs away as fast as possible.

Just pathetic really. If the US decides to take action through the correct channels then I reckon NK will sh*t themselves and China will do everything to try and stop action, then it will die down again and they will agree to certain policy, then get bored again and test some more missiles, then fire a few rounds...The tiny insignificant country trying to look like they can cause problems. If it did go further I believe they would be squashed so badly, and I also believe they know that.

 

We dont know what the people actually think, only what they are told to think. I would imagine most who have seen the 'outside' world will crave it, a future instead of what they have now. Brainwashed they maybe but it wouldn't take much for them to see what they are missing.

[Wordsworth]

This reminds me, I want to go hit up this Korean joint down the road called Sam Bo. Some amazing lettuce wraps and assorted kimchi. Thanks for the heads up, nigga. I need to get my grub on.

[dog_day_sunrise]

 

You're completely forgetting about China here. China and NK are best buddies. Anything NK does, China sticks up for them and protects them. Any attempt at military invasion via the UN security council is going to get nowhere considering China holds a veto power and can veto any motion they like. Even if an invasion would somehow happen, you could potentially have WWIII. China supports NK, and the rest of the world basically supports the US. If they attack NK, China is going to get involved, then everyone else. It's really no secret anymore, China has the biggest army in the world, and could easily kick the United Sates ass. At this point in time, it seems in everyones best interest to sit back and let the Korea's fight it out amongst them selves.

The thing is, they're just not.

 

As I've said about a dozen times before, International Relations is entirely anarchical, and states only work for their own gain.

 

China has been plowing money into DPRK as they are a huge source of weapon and other military technology exportation. They've been slow to condemn the DPRK because they don't wish to harm their potential export market. That does not mean that there is any kind of military alliance, or that, should the North accelerate either it's nuclear weapon program or it's aggression towards the South, China would come riding to the rescue.

 

Headly Bull's "The Anarchical Society" covers it pretty well- state actors are for the most part rational, and seek to improve their own position and nothing else. China has a lucrative export market to maintain with the DPRK but it's no so lucrative that China would risk damaging it's standing (and therefore exports) with the majority of the rest of the world over. China, at the end of the day despite being authoritarian, has a globalised market economy, and economic considerations trumps the handy alliance with the nutters in the North.

 

 

 

FWIW, size of army means precisely sod all in modern warfare. It's all about who has the best intelligence gathering and command and control systems, who has the most effective air and land-launched stand-off weapons, who can get in the most effective first strike and who can perpetrate the best electronic warfare campaign. Perfect point in question- Six Day War in 1967. The US could quite comfortably execute a decapitation strike against China's command and control infrastructure and then all the manpower in the world would be essentially useless with nothing to give orders or advise on an operational level.

 

 

 

 

Except this only works on the 80's systems. Modern Russian SAM sites never go into active radar mode. The SAM's own radar is active, but it doesn't activate on the launch pad, like it did on ye olde systems, but when it's already in the air, instead.

 

So basically, the only way you are taking out a SAM site like this is by finding it with a sat, and hitting it with a cruise missile.

 

And no, NK isn't currently equipped with anything even close. But Serbia doesn't share a border with Russia, US had no intentions of occupying Kosovo, and Russia was still trying to recover from all the economic problems. NK, in contrast, is too close to home, US would be there for a long time, and Russia is currently trying to strengthen its hold over the region. I point you to operation in Georgia, which in big part was a response to Georgia's intent to join NATO. (There was also oil/gas involved, but that seems to be the case with every single war in the past 70 years.) I can't say exactly how likely Russia is to assist NK with military hardware, but if they do, they are going to want to show off, so they'll send best of the best. And US has nothing to deal with that without taking sufficiently serious losses.

That's not actually true. Almost all non MANPADS-type SAM systems require an active radar system in order to IFF (identify friend or foe) and track the movements of aircraft as they enter range- they don't work in the same way as AAM's which have their own active radar seeker system; the radars (or IR sensor) on the missile itself is for terminal guidance, not target acquisition. The seeker range on the actual missiles is far shorter than that on the main radar array and they can only be launched without the main radar at very short-ranged targets. It's also worth pointing out that passive radar technology is in it's infancy, and no operational system use it- even the extremely advanced RIM-66 Standard, which is widely believe to be the most effective SAM system in operation deployment, still requires the AEGIS radar array to do target finding and IFF.

 

Russia has no desire to side with the DPRK- see above content RE china for why. Also, it might be worth clarifying that Georgia and the DPRK are completely incomparable- one was a member of of a wider Soviet bloc who the Russian still seek to influence, and the other is a violent and oppressive dictatorship who threatens a number of Russia's close trading partners- most notably, Japan. A perfect example of national self-interest; involvement a conflict over the DPRK would not be in Russia's interest.

 

 

...and Nukes. So, basically,  were f*cked.

 

None of which are deliverable, and none of which actually work if their previous tests are anything to go on.

Edited November 24, 2010 by dog_day_sunrise

[PHCharls]

Looks like South Korea is gonna prepare more ammunition

[Slynke]

 

North Korea is blaming South Korea for driving them "to the brink of war," a day after the North shelled a South Korean island and killed four people.

 

The United States said Wednesday that it would hold military drills with South Korea in the Yellow Sea starting on Sunday.

 

sh*t sh*t sh*t sh*t sh*t

Edited November 24, 2010 by Slynke

[dog_day_sunrise]

North Korea is blaming South Korea for driving them "to the brink of war," a day after the North shelled a South Korean island and killed four people.

 

The United States said Wednesday that it would hold military drills with South Korea in the Yellow Sea starting on Sunday.

 

sh*t sh*t sh*t sh*t sh*t

I'll be fine. DPRK are nuts, but not quite THAT nuts.

Also worth note- the USS George Washington carrier battle group will soon be sitting off the South Korean coast.

[Robinski]

...and Nukes. So, basically,  were f*cked.

 

None of which are deliverable, and none of which actually work if their previous tests are anything to go on.

A lot of people forget/don't realise this. They hear the word "Nukes" and start sh*tting themselves. They pretty much posses nuclear hand grenades, they can set it off, but can they be far enough away from it to not feel the effects?

 

Let me know when they've got proper ICBMs down. Then I'll get to brick making.

[dog_day_sunrise]

...and Nukes. So, basically,  were f*cked.

 

None of which are deliverable, and none of which actually work if their previous tests are anything to go on.

A lot of people forget/don't realise this. They hear the word "Nukes" and start sh*tting themselves. They pretty much posses nuclear hand grenades, they can set it off, but can they be far enough away from it to not feel the effects?

 

Let me know when they've got proper ICBMs down. Then I'll get to brick making.

This. It's not difficult to build a nuclear weapon as long as you have the enriched uranium/plutonium and a reasonable level of manufacturing capability. The point is, as I've said earlier in the thread, that even under controlled conditions and with all their scientists on hand the DPRK has been unable to successfully detonate one of it's nuclear devices.

 

If a rough analogy is made with the US development of the bomb, they would be in in about August 1943- theoretically capable of building one, but lacking the ability to refine it. They are unlikely to progress to July 1945 (functioning weapon deliverable by heavy aircraft) until at least 2020 as their manufacturing ability just isn't up to reducing the size of the bomb to a deliverable level- and such an aircraft delivery would be implausible with modern SAM systems. They would need to reach around 1965 in the nuclear arms race- which won't be until about 2035 or 2040 at the earliest- in order to miniturise a weapon to a degree that it could be put on a MRBM, let alone an ICBM.

 

[Tommy-Vercetti19]

I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up nuking themselves.

[Kevin...]

I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up nuking themselves.

Damn...that would honestly be one of the funniest things to ever happen to mankind, ever.

 

 

I just tried to look at it realistically. All the world leaders would be calling each other and sh*tting bricks at UN meeting trying to figure out who just bombed NK only to find out they blew themselves up.

 

 

If NK managed to blow themselves up they would become an internet sensation. Imagine all the memes.

[beavis]

If Korea blew themselves up imagine all the radiation in just that area alone.

[dog_day_sunrise]

If Korea blew themselves up imagine all the radiation in just that area alone.

In all fairness, the fallout from the DPRK annihilating itself would probably pose more of a threat than their nuclear program currently does.

[vertical limit]

get ready for WW3

[dog_day_sunrise]

get ready for WW3

Posts like this one make a very compelling case for using the phrase "read the rest of the topic, dumbarse".