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agent17

Georgia attacks South Ossetia

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TFatseas

 

Are the Russians going to pillage their lands and violate their personal space and steal their cattle and women?  I just don't understand what they are attempting to do ... they did a piss poor job of attempting to cook up an excuse for this action. 

 

 

Its a land grab, that simple. South Ossetia is inside the internationally recognized territory of Georgia. South Ossetia also held an independence referendum to remain a 'de facto' independent state. From Georgia and Russia. Here Wiki for the less inclined. They are not recognized by one country, including Russia. Russia should not be meddling in the internal affairs of Georgia.

 

Nevermind last night's Georgian barrage and offensive was in response to rebel attacks.

 

Russia used this as no more than a excuse. Peacekeeping my ass. You don't send a tank brigade on offensive maneuvers inside a sovereign country, nor do you launch preemptive airstrikes. They intend to take, and hold.

Edited by TFatseas

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Breaking Bohan

 

Are the Russians going to pillage their lands and violate their personal space and steal their cattle and women?  I just don't understand what they are attempting to do ... they did a piss poor job of attempting to cook up an excuse for this action. 

 

ATTENTION russian propoganda machine:  you need to get a story out; you look bad in the USA because it's being reported that you basically just invaded Georgia for no reason .... so get your ducks in order! sigh.gif

It only looks bad to the small percentage thjat actually care. I'm pretty sure the massese don't even care about this mainly because it has nothing to do with our country.

 

Now if Russia said " f*ck the USA if they try to get anymore involved we'll bomb them" then the masses will care. But 2 European countries fighting over an invasion doesn't peak much interest in most Americans

It's true, for some reason USA propaganda machine (CNN) acts as if hardly anything happened, but spends hours on end talking about the John Edwards' sex scandal. ((Thank you J. Edwards for distracting America from important news!))

 

This country apparently needs to wake up to world events and people need to pull their heads out of their own asses. I couldn't believe it when I read earlier that 1,400 people had been killed in one day (three more days and there will be more casualties than US lost after fighting in Iraq for 5 years!) - but we would never know it from watching the news.

 

Seriously, Russia could take over many more countries and most in USA wouldn't know/care - we're too busy fighting terrorism, following gay-elections and sex scandals, watching bullshat news, and getting fat. Even if USA wanted to stop them we couldn't do it w/out a draft.

Edited by Breaking Bohan

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Sergi
Are the Russians going to pillage their lands and violate their personal space and steal their cattle and women?  I just don't understand what they are attempting to do ... they did a piss poor job of attempting to cook up an excuse for this action. 

 

ATTENTION russian propoganda machine:  you need to get a story out; you look bad in the USA because it's being reported that you basically just invaded Georgia for no reason .... so get your ducks in order! sigh.gif

It only looks bad to the small percentage thjat actually care. I'm pretty sure the massese don't even care about this mainly because it has nothing to do with our country.

 

Now if Russia said " f*ck the USA if they try to get anymore involved we'll bomb them" then the masses will care. But 2 European countries fighting over an invasion doesn't peak much interest in most Americans

It's true, for some reason USA propaganda machine (CNN) acts as if hardly anything happened, but spends hours on end talking about the John Edwards' sex scandal. ((Thank you J. Edwards for distracting America from important news!))

 

This country apparently needs to wake up to world events and people need to pull their heads out of their own asses. I couldn't believe it when I read earlier that 1,400 people had been killed in one day (three more days and there will be more casualties than US lost after fighting in Iraq for 5 years!) - but we would never know it from watching the news.

That happens in places like Africa every day and that's not on the news much so why should it be any different with this story?

As I said before if America really wants to stick their noses in other countries problems go to Burma or South Africa or Zimbawe or places in Africa or Asia where mass genocides happen.

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Breaking Bohan
Are the Russians going to pillage their lands and violate their personal space and steal their cattle and women?  I just don't understand what they are attempting to do ... they did a piss poor job of attempting to cook up an excuse for this action. 

 

ATTENTION russian propoganda machine:  you need to get a story out; you look bad in the USA because it's being reported that you basically just invaded Georgia for no reason .... so get your ducks in order! sigh.gif

It only looks bad to the small percentage thjat actually care. I'm pretty sure the massese don't even care about this mainly because it has nothing to do with our country.

 

Now if Russia said " f*ck the USA if they try to get anymore involved we'll bomb them" then the masses will care. But 2 European countries fighting over an invasion doesn't peak much interest in most Americans

It's true, for some reason USA propaganda machine (CNN) acts as if hardly anything happened, but spends hours on end talking about the John Edwards' sex scandal. ((Thank you J. Edwards for distracting America from important news!))

 

This country apparently needs to wake up to world events and people need to pull their heads out of their own asses. I couldn't believe it when I read earlier that 1,400 people had been killed in one day (three more days and there will be more casualties than US lost after fighting in Iraq for 5 years!) - but we would never know it from watching the news.

That happens in places like Africa every day and that's not on the news much so why should it be any different with this story?

As I said before if America really wants to stick their noses in other countries problems go to Burma or South Africa or Zimbawe or places in Africa or Asia where mass genocides happen.

Well that's true, but usually the senseless killing is not being done by one of the world's superpowers. This is slightly different - people are getting killed senselessly (thats the same) - but the Russian army is doing it (not a bunch of bushmen). Seriously, if Georgia's actions were intended to prevoke such a conflict, then I really don't grasp their logic. Unless, they plan on stopping the Russians on their own then I'm stumped.

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TFatseas

 

Well that's true, but usually the senseless killing is not being done by one of the world's superpowers.  This is slightly different - people are getting killed senselessly (thats the same) - but the Russian army is doing it (not a bunch of bushmen).  Seriously, if Georgia's actions were intended to prevoke such a conflict, then I really don't grasp their logic.  Unless, they plan on stopping the Russians on their own then I'm stumped.

The Russians are pissed after they lost all that land after the USSR's collapse. If someone does not put that line in the sand somewhere, you are going to see a lot more of this.

 

What people seem to forget is, that Russia is the last of the European empires, the difference is that they are land based, and didn't take land overseas like the others.

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Sergi
Are the Russians going to pillage their lands and violate their personal space and steal their cattle and women?  I just don't understand what they are attempting to do ... they did a piss poor job of attempting to cook up an excuse for this action. 

 

ATTENTION russian propoganda machine:  you need to get a story out; you look bad in the USA because it's being reported that you basically just invaded Georgia for no reason .... so get your ducks in order! sigh.gif

It only looks bad to the small percentage thjat actually care. I'm pretty sure the massese don't even care about this mainly because it has nothing to do with our country.

 

Now if Russia said " f*ck the USA if they try to get anymore involved we'll bomb them" then the masses will care. But 2 European countries fighting over an invasion doesn't peak much interest in most Americans

It's true, for some reason USA propaganda machine (CNN) acts as if hardly anything happened, but spends hours on end talking about the John Edwards' sex scandal. ((Thank you J. Edwards for distracting America from important news!))

 

This country apparently needs to wake up to world events and people need to pull their heads out of their own asses. I couldn't believe it when I read earlier that 1,400 people had been killed in one day (three more days and there will be more casualties than US lost after fighting in Iraq for 5 years!) - but we would never know it from watching the news.

That happens in places like Africa every day and that's not on the news much so why should it be any different with this story?

As I said before if America really wants to stick their noses in other countries problems go to Burma or South Africa or Zimbawe or places in Africa or Asia where mass genocides happen.

Well that's true, but usually the senseless killing is not being done by one of the world's superpowers. This is slightly different - people are getting killed senselessly (thats the same) - but the Russian army is doing it (not a bunch of bushmen). Seriously, if Georgia's actions were intended to prevoke such a conflict, then I really don't grasp their logic. Unless, they plan on stopping the Russians on their own then I'm stumped.

No it's not being done by any super powers but it's being done by mad men who are killing thousands of innocent people daily. If that doesn't warrant one of the most powerful nations to go in and try to help these places where not only are living conditions horrible in almost evry place but children are being killed just because people have different views then why should America help a country who also has different views but just so happens to be rich in oil.

 

If Africa or certain places where genocides happen in Asia like Burma were rich in oil America would be there every day saying" We're trying to help stop genocide" when they're really there for the oil.

 

The US telling Russia to stop or something will happen is not going to mediate the problem. It's going to expand it. It might not blow up now or maybe not even in 5 years but when Russia becomes a super power again if they do then they won't forget certain situations or countries that they have problems wit.

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Breaking Bohan

 

Well that's true, but usually the senseless killing is not being done by one of the world's superpowers.  This is slightly different - people are getting killed senselessly (thats the same) - but the Russian army is doing it (not a bunch of bushmen).  Seriously, if Georgia's actions were intended to prevoke such a conflict, then I really don't grasp their logic.  Unless, they plan on stopping the Russians on their own then I'm stumped.

The Russians are pissed after they lost all that land after the USSR's collapse. If someone does not put that line in the sand somewhere, you are going to see a lot more of this.

 

What people seem to forget is, that Russia is the last of the European empires, the difference is that they are land based, and didn't take land overseas like the others.

I suggest the EU do it. The UN is obviously worthless. Seriously, how can the US be ready to fight in Iran if we have to worry about things like this. Many persons (Israel) will be angry if Iran builds nuclear weapons.

 

@Serg: Well I mostly agree ... our policy on stopping such killings does not look so great. And I don't think USA will do anything to Russia, except run our mouth.

 

Anyone - ???? - GEORGIA does not have any NUCLEAR WEAPONS from USSR days do they??? There's no chance that Georgia would do that is there??

Edited by Breaking Bohan

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TFatseas

 

Well that's true, but usually the senseless killing is not being done by one of the world's superpowers.  This is slightly different - people are getting killed senselessly (thats the same) - but the Russian army is doing it (not a bunch of bushmen).  Seriously, if Georgia's actions were intended to prevoke such a conflict, then I really don't grasp their logic.  Unless, they plan on stopping the Russians on their own then I'm stumped.

The Russians are pissed after they lost all that land after the USSR's collapse. If someone does not put that line in the sand somewhere, you are going to see a lot more of this.

 

What people seem to forget is, that Russia is the last of the European empires, the difference is that they are land based, and didn't take land overseas like the others.

I suggest the EU do it. The UN is obviously worthless. Seriously, how can the US be ready to fight in Iran if we have to worry about things like this. Many persons (Israel) will be angry if Iran builds nuclear weapons.

Iran would be an absolute cake walk compared to Russia.

 

The question is, do we want to face Russia, or a country that has the power of the former USSR?

Edited by TFatseas

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Breaking Bohan

I'm sure this will go over well:

 

Fresh of the Press:

DZHAVA, Georgia - Russia dispatched an armored column into the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia on Friday after Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally, launched a surprise offensive to crush separatists. Witnesses said hundreds of civilians were killed. Fighting reportedly raged well into the night with Georgia's interior ministry saying early Saturday that warplanes attacked three Georgian military bases and key facilities for shipping oil to the West.

 

 

Oil for some reason fell 5 dollars today and NYSE went up 300 points ... but come next monday, the story looks like it will change... confused.gif

-----------------------

Also, I don't think any sane person wants to fight Russia, except perhaps .... Georgia.

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TFatseas

Conflict might be drawn out.

 

Rueters

 

 

Georgia-Russia conflict could be drawn out

Fri Aug 8, 2008 6:51pm EDT

 

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powered by Sphere Sphere

 

By Chris Baldwin - Analysis

 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Conflict between Georgia and an increasingly assertive Russia has long been in the making and there is no certainty it will end quickly despite the enormous disparity of their forces.

 

Tensions exploded on Friday when Georgia tried to take back control of the rebel region of South Ossetia with tanks and rockets, and Russia sent forces to repel the assault. Fighting raged around South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinvali.

 

Conflicts between Georgia and South Ossetia and another breakaway republic, Abkhazia, began when the Soviet Union broke up almost two decades ago. Violence has flared occasionally, but signs have increasingly pointed to a major showdown.

 

The roots of the recent conflict are threefold, said analyst Svante Cornell, co-director of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy and an expert on Georgia.

 

"It boils down to Kosovo independence, NATO's Bucharest summit and possibly also Russian internal politics and the transfer of power," Cornell told Reuters by telephone.

 

In February, Russian diplomats said Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia would stir up strife in the Balkans and linked Kosovar status to separatist areas Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Western states backed Kosovo.

 

In Romania in April, NATO leaders made a vague pledge to invite ex-Soviet Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance at some future point. In response, then-president of Russia Vladimir Putin promised more support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

 

In May, Putin stepped down after two terms and his hand-picked successor Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated president. Putin did not leave power though, and soon he was appointed prime minister and is still seen as the leader of the country.

 

Cornell said Russia has seized upon a moment to assert itself in South Ossetia when Europe is unwilling to anger at Moscow and the United States is distracted by domestic elections. He suggested Georgia had fallen into an Ossetian provocation.

 

"Irrespective of who triggered this recent action, the general direction of Russian policy is clear, which is: We are taking control of these territories, and we're not even pretending that we're not," Cornell said.

 

CHECKERBOARD

 

Unlike Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast, South Ossetia is not a wholly integral territory with congruent borders. Instead it is a checkerboard of villages and towns in the foothills of the Caucasus mountains, interspersed with islands of Georgia proper.

 

The majority of South Ossetia's 70,000 people are ethnically distinct from Georgians and look to Moscow rather than Tbilisi.

 

Most of the violent clashes in the region this year had been over nearby Abkhazia, with troop deployments, downings of drone airplanes and Russian warplane incursions into Georgian airspace all leading Tbilisi to say war was "very close".

 

When a muscular Georgian military response came on the heels of what Cornell and security analyst Pavel Felgenhauer both called Ossetian provocations, the logistical advantage Tbilisi enjoyed over Moscow in the fight became apparent.

 

"Turning the tide of a Georgian offensive would mean a massive invasion by Russian forces," said Felgenhauer.

 

"They would need to deploy crack Russian troops on the battlefield, and that does not guarantee victory over Georgia because you can't deploy much."

 

On paper, Russia has an overwhelming military advantage over Georgia. Russia has 140 million people compared to fewer than five million in Georgia.

 

But Georgia and South Ossetia have the fortifications of the Caucasus mountains to the north. As Russia has learned in Chechnya, it is not easy terrain to fight in.

 

Only one road runs south from Russia into South Ossetia. There are no military-capable airstrips and snows from October through May close the mountain passes.

 

Christopher Langton, defence analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain, said Russia did have the military capability, "to secure a corridor from Tskhinvali back through the Roki tunnel and to secure Tskhinvali itself."

 

But not everyone is convinced. Felgenhauer said Georgia's U.S.-trained army was stronger than many believed and had trained for just such a scenario.

 

"Massive Russian intervention would mean it's going to be a long war, a bloody war, with an unpredictable outcome, because Ossetia is geographically separated from Russia."

 

"It's a hell of a logistical nightmare to try and take and keep South Ossetia against a rather fine Georgian military," Felgenhauer said.

 

(Additional reporting by Luke Baker in London; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)

 

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Sergi
Conflict might be drawn out.

 

Rueters

 

 

Georgia-Russia conflict could be drawn out

Fri Aug 8, 2008 6:51pm EDT

 

Email | Print |

Share

| Reprints | Single Page

[-] Text [+]

 

powered by Sphere Sphere

 

By Chris Baldwin - Analysis

 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Conflict between Georgia and an increasingly assertive Russia has long been in the making and there is no certainty it will end quickly despite the enormous disparity of their forces.

 

Tensions exploded on Friday when Georgia tried to take back control of the rebel region of South Ossetia with tanks and rockets, and Russia sent forces to repel the assault. Fighting raged around South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinvali.

 

Conflicts between Georgia and South Ossetia and another breakaway republic, Abkhazia, began when the Soviet Union broke up almost two decades ago. Violence has flared occasionally, but signs have increasingly pointed to a major showdown.

 

The roots of the recent conflict are threefold, said analyst Svante Cornell, co-director of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy and an expert on Georgia.

 

"It boils down to Kosovo independence, NATO's Bucharest summit and possibly also Russian internal politics and the transfer of power," Cornell told Reuters by telephone.

 

In February, Russian diplomats said Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia would stir up strife in the Balkans and linked Kosovar status to separatist areas Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Western states backed Kosovo.

 

In Romania in April, NATO leaders made a vague pledge to invite ex-Soviet Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance at some future point. In response, then-president of Russia Vladimir Putin promised more support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

 

In May, Putin stepped down after two terms and his hand-picked successor Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated president. Putin did not leave power though, and soon he was appointed prime minister and is still seen as the leader of the country.

 

Cornell said Russia has seized upon a moment to assert itself in South Ossetia when Europe is unwilling to anger at Moscow and the United States is distracted by domestic elections. He suggested Georgia had fallen into an Ossetian provocation.

 

"Irrespective of who triggered this recent action, the general direction of Russian policy is clear, which is: We are taking control of these territories, and we're not even pretending that we're not," Cornell said.

 

CHECKERBOARD

 

Unlike Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast, South Ossetia is not a wholly integral territory with congruent borders. Instead it is a checkerboard of villages and towns in the foothills of the Caucasus mountains, interspersed with islands of Georgia proper.

 

The majority of South Ossetia's 70,000 people are ethnically distinct from Georgians and look to Moscow rather than Tbilisi.

 

Most of the violent clashes in the region this year had been over nearby Abkhazia, with troop deployments, downings of drone airplanes and Russian warplane incursions into Georgian airspace all leading Tbilisi to say war was "very close".

 

When a muscular Georgian military response came on the heels of what Cornell and security analyst Pavel Felgenhauer both called Ossetian provocations, the logistical advantage Tbilisi enjoyed over Moscow in the fight became apparent.

 

"Turning the tide of a Georgian offensive would mean a massive invasion by Russian forces," said Felgenhauer.

 

"They would need to deploy crack Russian troops on the battlefield, and that does not guarantee victory over Georgia because you can't deploy much."

 

On paper, Russia has an overwhelming military advantage over Georgia. Russia has 140 million people compared to fewer than five million in Georgia.

 

But Georgia and South Ossetia have the fortifications of the Caucasus mountains to the north. As Russia has learned in Chechnya, it is not easy terrain to fight in.

 

Only one road runs south from Russia into South Ossetia. There are no military-capable airstrips and snows from October through May close the mountain passes.

 

Christopher Langton, defence analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain, said Russia did have the military capability, "to secure a corridor from Tskhinvali back through the Roki tunnel and to secure Tskhinvali itself."

 

But not everyone is convinced. Felgenhauer said Georgia's U.S.-trained army was stronger than many believed and had trained for just such a scenario.

 

"Massive Russian intervention would mean it's going to be a long war, a bloody war, with an unpredictable outcome, because Ossetia is geographically separated from Russia."

 

"It's a hell of a logistical nightmare to try and take and keep South Ossetia against a rather fine Georgian military," Felgenhauer said.

 

(Additional reporting by Luke Baker in London; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)

So Gerogia actually started this and people are saying Russia should stop and are the bad guys?

 

Russia should kick the sh*t out of Gerogia because they threw the 1st stone and started this. That makes no sense that any country should intervene between these 2 countries especially an ally of the country that started it and say Russia should do a cease fire.

 

 

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TFatseas
So Gerogia actually started this and people are saying Russia should stop and are the bad guys?

 

Russia should kick the sh*t out of Gerogia because they threw the 1st stone and started this. That makes no sense that any country should intervene between these 2 countries especially an ally of the country that started it and say Russia should do a cease fire.

Where do you get that? South Ossetia is a part of Georgia, and they responded to Ossetian provatcations.

 

Russia should have no say in the Internal affairs of Georgia.

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Sergi

 

So Gerogia actually started this and people are saying Russia should stop and are the bad guys?

 

Russia should kick the sh*t out of Gerogia because they threw the 1st stone and started this. That makes no sense that any country should intervene between these 2 countries especially an ally of the country that started it and say Russia should do a cease fire.

Where do you get that? South Ossetia is a part of Georgia, and they responded to Ossetian provatcations.

 

Russia should have no say in the Internal affairs of Georgia.

Oh I had no clue South Osestia was part of Georgia.

 

Either way this is a battle between these 2 places so other countries getting involved makes no sense.

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TFatseas
Oh I had no clue South Osestia was part of Georgia.

 

Picture from page two.

 

user posted image

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Sergi
Oh I had no clue South Osestia was part of Georgia.

 

Picture from page two.

 

user posted image

Who really goes back to the 1st page when a thread is already 5 or 6 pages in?

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Hayden

 

Oh I had no clue South Osestia was part of Georgia.

 

Picture from page two.

 

user posted image

Who really goes back to the 1st page when a thread is already 5 or 6 pages in?

A person willing to make a decent contribution rather than blindly entering a topic without context.

 

Edit: Typo.

Edited by Hayden

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Sergi
Oh I had no clue South Osestia was part of Georgia.

 

Picture from page two.

 

user posted image

Who really goes back to the 1st page when a thread is already 5 or 6 pages in?

A person willing to mane a decent contribution rather than blindly entering a topic without context.

Well you dumb ass if you read any of my post I've made valid points and the only time I was off is when I replied to that last comment with the long article and then I announced myself in being wrong.

 

So why don't you shut the f*ck up and don't involve yourself in something that you aren't involved in. Unless you're his boyfrined or bodyguard I'm pretty sure this was between me and him.

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Runey
Oh I had no clue South Osestia was part of Georgia.

 

Picture from page two.

 

user posted image

Who really goes back to the 1st page when a thread is already 5 or 6 pages in?

A person willing to mane a decent contribution rather than blindly entering a topic without context.

Well you dumb ass if you read any of my post I've made valid points and the only time I was off is when I replied to that last comment with the long article and then I announced myself in being wrong.

 

So why don't you shut the f*ck up and don't involve yourself in something that you aren't involved in. Unless you're his boyfrined or bodyguard I'm pretty sure this was between me and him.

You're really stupid, not to mention lazy.

 

5 pages isn't a lot to look through, now stop calling everyone else stupid when you can't even read five pages.

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Otter

Sergi - Whoa, cowboy. Take it somewhere else; you're embarrasing yourself.

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Machida

" We're going to need a bigger boat"

 

Looks like South Ossetia is going to get it's independence from Georgia courtesy of some Russian guns.

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D- Ice

Lol, to be honest, I think there's an equal chance any will win. Sure Russia got more troops and all those tanks, but as someone posted in pictures earlier, Georgia's military is much better equiped with the latest US M4's and other weapons - they even have those new digital camos but in green. I'm sure the same can be said about their other equipment, tanks etc... They were also trained by us especially for such a situation.

Russia's armed forces on the other hand are outfitted with aging AK's and old T72's. But they do have numbers on their side.

 

Most likely if this war continues, the best either side can hope for is a compromise - but after a long and bloody war, with more civilian than military casualties.

 

If they were wise, despite all that's happened, they'll try a cease-fire at least. I still have some faith in their politicians. And why the f*ck don't we bring Russia into NATO, talking about the Cold War being long over!

If we did, then maybe they wouldn't still be against us, our influence and allies!

 

I hope for the sake of the Osetians and everyone in the area this battle finishes before it really kicks of. I lost people I know in the Iraq civil war, and you cannot but generalise your hate and anger - which is horrible because you know it is wrong and feel guilty about it, but it remains, no matter how much you wnat reconciliation.

So for the sake of all remaining human, I hope this finishes as quickly as it started ASAP.

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tommy vs. claude
Do I ere WW3 happening wow.giflol.gif just wait all the other country's will join tounge.gif but good for Russia hope they win

Wait, you want Russia to win? Why?

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TFatseas

 

Lol, to be honest, I think there's an equal chance any will win. Sure Russia got more troops and all those tanks, but as someone posted in pictures earlier, Georgia's military is much better equiped with the latest US M4's and other weapons - they even have those new digital camos but in green. I'm sure the same can be said about their other equipment, tanks etc... They were also trained by us especially for such a situation.

Russia's armed forces on the other hand are outfitted with aging AK's and old T72's. But they do have numbers on their side.

 

 

Don't forget, the Georgian military is US trained.

 

The Russians simply can't use numbers to their advantage.

 

There is only ONE major road into South Ossetia from Russia, not to mention it is very mountainous. And closed to part of the year.

 

Here from the story I pointed out.

 

 

"Turning the tide of a Georgian offensive would mean a massive invasion by Russian forces," said Felgenhauer.

 

"They would need to deploy crack Russian troops on the battlefield, and that does not guarantee victory over Georgia because you can't deploy much."

 

On paper, Russia has an overwhelming military advantage over Georgia. Russia has 140 million people compared to fewer than five million in Georgia.

 

But Georgia and South Ossetia have the fortifications of the Caucasus mountains to the north. As Russia has learned in Chechnya, it is not easy terrain to fight in.

 

Only one road runs south from Russia into South Ossetia. There are no military-capable airstrips and snows from October through May close the mountain passes.

 

Christopher Langton, defence analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain, said Russia did have the military capability, "to secure a corridor from Tskhinvali back through the Roki tunnel and to secure Tskhinvali itself."

 

But not everyone is convinced. Felgenhauer said Georgia's U.S.-trained army was stronger than many believed and had trained for just such a scenario.

 

"Massive Russian intervention would mean it's going to be a long war, a bloody war, with an unpredictable outcome, because Ossetia is geographically separated from Russia."

 

"It's a hell of a logistical nightmare to try and take and keep South Ossetia against a rather fine Georgian military," Felgenhauer said.

Edited by TFatseas

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K^2

 

Where do you get that? South Ossetia is a part of Georgia, and they responded to Ossetian provatcations.

 

Russia should have no say in the Internal affairs of Georgia.

Erm... 90% of population of South Ossetia holds Russian Citizenship. These people were being slaughtered by the artillery strikes and these things. Georgia military didn't just go into the city and met resistance. They started bombing the sh*t out of the city before they even moved the troops in. That's not attacking separatist groups. That's slaughtering general population.

 

Russian Federation is required to protect its citizens, both by Russian and International laws. Russia had full rights to send the army into South Ossetia.

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TFatseas

 

. Georgia military didn't just go into the city and met resistance. They started bombing the sh*t out of the city before they even moved the troops in. That's not attacking separatist groups. That's slaughtering general population.

 

Russian Federation is required to protect its citizens, both by Russian and International laws. Russia had full rights to send the army into South Ossetia.

So why did they vote independent from both Georgia and Russia? Not to mention South Ossetia broke away from Georgia and are within their internationally recognized territory. And not one country recognizes South Ossetia as a sovereign nation, not even Russia.

 

The Georgian attack was in response to Ossetian separatists attacks over the last couple weeks. (Not to mention the tit for tat attacks over the last couple years.) Georgia has every right to respond in kind.

Edited by TFatseas

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Machida

 

 

Don't forget, the Georgian military is US trained.

 

 

Oh! Evacuate the friendlies!

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TFatseas

 

 

 

Don't forget, the Georgian military is US trained.

 

 

Oh! Evacuate the friendlies!

1,000 US military personnel were in country last month, they're out now.

 

2,000 Americans are in country, 130 of which defense related.

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TFatseas

Double post I know, but I got news to add.

 

Link

 

 

THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW’S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

 

By Vladimir Socor

 

Friday, August 8, 2008

 

As anticipated (see EDM, July 11, August 4) Moscow has initiated an offensive military operation by proxy against Georgia in South Ossetia. Although the blow had been expected in upper Abkhazia and may yet materialize there, Russia shifted the direction of attack to the South Ossetian front.

 

The brazen attacks during the night of August 7 to 8 in South Ossetia left Tbilisi with no choice but to respond. Continuing Georgian restraint would have resulted in irreparable human, territorial, and political losses. Moscow’s military and propaganda operation bears the hallmarks of its blitzkriegs in Transnistria in 1992 and Abkhazia in 1993. Georgia’s defensive response in South Ossetia since August 8 is legally within the country’s rights under international law and militarily commensurate with the attacks.

 

Russia usually stages military incidents in Georgia in August, while European officials take their vacations. This year, however, the operations are systematic, lengthier, and considerably higher on the ladder of escalation than in previous years. After concentrating supplementary forces in Abkhazia during the spring and expanding its military infrastructure there in early summer, Moscow switched on the escalation process in South Ossetia.

 

On July 3 an assassination attempt targeted Dmitry Sanakoyev, head of the Tbilisi-backed interim administration of South Ossetia, which controls at least one third of the region’s territory. The blast injured Sanakoyev’s bodyguards. On July 9 Moscow demonstratively acknowledged that four Russian Air Force planes had flown a mission over South Ossetia. That action sought to deter Georgia from flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), thus blinding Tbilisi to Russian and proxy military movements in the area. A series of roadside bomb blasts targeted Georgian police patrols. During the second half of July and the first days of August, Russian-commanded Ossetian troops under the authority of Russian-led South Ossetian authorities fired repeatedly at Georgian-controlled villages, forcing Georgian police to fire back defensively.

 

Meanwhile, Russia’s state-controlled media orchestrated a war scare, accusing Georgia of intentions to attack. In the North Caucasus and Russia proper, Cossack chieftains on government payroll threatened to send “volunteers” to fight against Georgia. The North Ossetian authorities, apparently aware of Moscow’s plans, showed nervousness at the prospect of becoming embroiled in a major military operation by proxy to their south.

 

The goals behind Moscow’s operation are threefold, each with its own time frame. The immediate goal is to re-establish the authority of Russian-controlled negotiating and “peacekeeping” formats. By firing on Georgian positions unremittingly and escalating the intensity of the fire with every passing day, Moscow hopes to force Georgia to turn to those Russian-controlled formats to relieve the pressure. Furthermore, Moscow wants to force Tbilisi to acknowledge a leading Russian role as “guarantor” of an eventual political settlement.

 

Moscow’s next goal, on a timeframe overlapping with the first, is to capture Georgian-controlled villages in South Ossetia. The pattern of attacks since August 6 indicate the intent to reduce the Sanakoyev administration’s territory to insignificance or even remove it from South Ossetia altogether. If successful, this undertaking may well be replicated in upper Abkhazia by Russian and proxy forces attempting to evict authorities loyal to Tbilisi.

 

The strategic political goal is to dissuade NATO from approving a membership action plan (MAP) for Georgia at the alliance’s December 2008 or April 2009 meetings. More immediately, Moscow seeks to derail the North Atlantic Council’s assessment visit to Georgia, scheduled for September, or at least to influence the visit’s assessment about Georgia’s eligibility for a MAP. Since NATO’s “Russia-Firsters” insist that unresolved conflicts disqualify Georgia from a MAP, Russia seeks to demonstrate that those conflicts are indeed unresolved. NATO’s failure to approve a Georgian MAP at the April 2008 summit emboldened Russia to escalate military operations against Georgia.

 

Moscow also seeks to bleed Georgia economically through protracted military operations. Russia can not tolerate the successful economic performance of a Western-oriented government on Russia’s border. Aware, furthermore, that Georgia’s government is accountable to public opinion, Moscow seeks to force the government to choose between yielding at the risk of a domestic backlash or, alternatively, fighting back in a costly confrontation

 

Resemblances with the Russian interventions in the early 1990s in Transnistria and Abkhazia are unmistakable. In that scenario, the Russian media create a hysterical, brink-of-war atmosphere, portraying the small country targeted for attack as a dangerous aggressor. Russian-armed proxy troops, already in place on the target country’s territory, attack localities and seats of authority. Cossacks and North Caucasus “volunteers” are sent in. Russian officials can claim that the attackers act on their own, outside Moscow’s control. Russian military intelligence coordinates the operation, while air and ground forces provide cover and would intervene directly if the target country defends itself. In the final stage of this scenario, Russian “peacekeepers” perpetuate the gains achieved on the ground. Throughout the crisis, most Western governments are confused and react irrelevantly by urging restraint on “both sides,” ultimately tolerating the Russian faits accomplis.

 

That scenario started unfolding in South Ossetia in late July. By August 6 and 7, heavily armed proxy troops opened fire on Georgian villages, while the secessionist authorities refused to talk with Tbilisi. The attacking forces began destroying the transmission antennae of Georgian mobile telephone systems. Arms and paramilitary groups poured in from Russia to South Ossetia through the Russian-controlled Roki tunnel. Russian officials in Georgia claimed that the attacking forces were out of Russia’s control. Officials in Moscow, meanwhile, justified the attacks directly and indirectly by accusing Georgia of aggression (Interfax, Itar-Tass, Russian Television, August 4-7).

 

At 7:00 P.M. local time on August 7, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke live on national television, announcing a unilateral ceasefire and asking the other side also to cease hostilities. In highly conciliatory words, Saakashvili called for talks “in any format”; reaffirmed the long-standing offer of full autonomy for South Ossetia; proposed that Russia should guarantee that solution; offered a general amnesty; and pleaded for international intercession to stop the hostilities (Rustavi-2 TV, August 7).

 

Following Saakashvili’s address, attacks on Georgian villages intensified. The village of Avnevi was almost completely destroyed, Tamarasheni and Prisi shelled, and the police station in Kurta, seat of the Sanakoyev administration, smashed by artillery fire. Civilians began fleeing the villages.

 

These attacks forced Tbilisi to take defensive action. By 10:30 P.M. local time on August 7 the Georgians returned fire. During the night, Georgian forces including armored columns began advancing toward Tskhinvali, the secessionist authorities’ administrative center. These Georgian actions have halted the repetition of a 1992-1993 type scenario in 2008.

 

Whoever thinks the Georgians are the agressors needs to reevaluate.

Edited by TFatseas

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