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ablestar

How can the human race...

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ablestar

In a world that is in chaos politically, socially and environmentally, how can the human race sustain another 100 years? bored.gif

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Otter

..seriously?

 

Read some history, man. We're (the western world) basking in a period of unprecedented awesomeness.

 

Shy of alien invasion, we're not going anywhere within 100 years.

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Svip
..seriously?

 

Read some history, man. We're (the western world) basking in a period of unprecedented awesomeness.

 

Shy of alien invasion, we're not going anywhere within 100 years.

Alien invasion is probably NOT going to happen. In fact, life on this rock will remain rather dull for a good while. But I wouldn't worry too much for our race. Though, I still think the worst is yet to come (like our end).

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TubbyJ

If my memory serves me correctly, I once saw something on a documentary about an asteroid headed straight towards Earth. Apparently, it's gonna come so close the first time around that it's gonna barely scrape past our atmosphere, actually causing people on that side to be slightly lighter and to change our tides, because of it's gravity. Then, it's gonna get stuck in orbit and will eventually hit us dead-on. I forget when this happens, perhaps 2022? Anyways, this isn't necessarily going to happen unless so-and-so scenario is played out.

 

Other than an asteroid or alien invasion, we're alright.

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ablestar

I am not on about asteroids or anything!

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Otter
I am not on about asteroids or anything!

This place isn't really for random speculation without a supplemental argument.

 

Translation - you can't have your pudding if you don't eat your meat.

 

Spell out where you're coming from, if you don't want us discussing off-topic. What exactly are you "on about"?

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Leftcoast

The scary part is about the envirnement. We have some serious issues to tackle if life is going to continue with the same standard of living. I have no doubt that some humans will survive the next hundred years, but there is cause for serious thought.

 

Since we humans have tampered so much with mother nature we are seeing wide spread extinctions, wild climate changes and ecosystems spiraling out of ballance. This will hit us worst in our agriculture. Once our agriculture takes a hit severe enough to significantly limit our food, we are going to see polital and social turbulance. You can use your imagination to see what the dark side of humanity looks like when there isn't enough food to go around.

 

Either way, there are too many people on the planet to sustain society as we know it. The earth's carrying capacity for human beings has been estimated between 2 and 12 billion people. To maintain the same standard of living as the average person in a developed country the carrying capacity has been estimated between 2 and 5 billion.

The earth's current population is currently just shy of 7 billion.

It's scary.

 

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Bigs

Sorry, but I'm not as optimistic as you lot.

 

I would be pretty surprised if, in 100 years, life as it is now is still going on. Terrorists are getting their hands on way too much powerful technology. That, plus the threat of climate change and space objects hitting Earth. All of the tension in the world right now, and so many aggressive people in power all over the world. It just seems like we'll be lucky if we still are living like we do now in 100 years.

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silvermanblue

Wow alot of dark pedictions in this topic. I feel that we have done alot of damage to the enviroment in the last 100 years. And with the world becoming more industrilized pollution is just going to get worse before it gets better. Sure the older industrilised nations are taking steps to decrese carbin dioxzide. But it might be to little,to late.

 

Some indenialble facts. The world is getting hotter, witch is going to change the climate. The ice caps are melting, witch will lead to the oceans rising. This will lead to severe costal flooding and its going to effect millions of people. But there is hope, as a whole the human race is incredibly adaptive. With more motivation for new technology and less bickering on costs we should survive. Except if a giant celestial body rams into the planet, than were f*cked suicidal.gif .

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saltinespike
Wow alot of dark pedictions in this topic. I feel that we have done alot of damage to the enviroment in the last 100 years. And with the world becoming more industrilized pollution is just going to get worse before it gets better. Sure the older industrilised nations are taking steps to decrese carbin dioxzide. But it might be to little,to late.

 

Some indenialble facts. The world is getting hotter, witch is going to change the climate. The ice caps are melting, witch will lead to the oceans rising. This will lead to severe costal flooding and its going to effect millions of people. But there is hope, as a whole the human race is incredibly adaptive. With more motivation for new technology and less bickering on costs we should survive. Except if a giant celestial body rams into the planet, than were f*cked suicidal.gif .

Pollution wise, the Industrial Revolution has hurt us the most. We have actually become cleaner than then (sewage system, for example). We are working on a cleaner Earth, etc. etc.

 

As far as the OP goes, society may be going downhill, but we are not going anywhere. Is Paris Hilton going to destroy America? No way.

 

Political powers. Well, Bill Clinton did a nice job for the economy. Maybe he could have some influence if Hillary got into power. smile.gif

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Leftcoast

 

Pollution wise, the Industrial Revolution has hurt us the most. We have actually become cleaner than then (sewage system, for example). We are working on a cleaner Earth, etc. etc.

 

I'm sure our cars produce more pollution in one month than the entire idustrial revolution. Either way, things are more polluted now than durring the industrial revolution. The black soot may have looked totaly foul in London, but now we have massive tracks of land that have been poisoned with chemicals like benzine. Smog in our major cities makes breathing there like smoking a pack a day.

 

At any rate, I just wanted point out that pollution is still a big problem.

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norniron

i dont care i wont be here tounge.gif

 

Anyway i think the world will go for ever tbh

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saltinespike
Pollution wise, the Industrial Revolution has hurt us the most. We have actually become cleaner than then (sewage system, for example). We are working on a cleaner Earth, etc. etc.

 

I'm sure our cars produce more pollution in one month than the entire idustrial revolution. Either way, things are more polluted now than durring the industrial revolution. The black soot may have looked totaly foul in London, but now we have massive tracks of land that have been poisoned with chemicals like benzine. Smog in our major cities makes breathing there like smoking a pack a day.

 

At any rate, I just wanted point out that pollution is still a big problem.

I think we may be on the way to sizing up the Industrial Revolution, but until you provide some stats, I stand by my case. More pollution in one month? Hah!

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Leftcoast

The industrial revolution was acutaly quite small when compared to todays modern industry not to mention all the autos, planes, ships and trains that are running today. America and parts of Europe were just about the only places that had been industrialized. Think about it, there is no way that we could be producing less pollution today, coal power would have to be virtualy pollution free given how much more coal is burned today than during the industrail revolution.

 

Either way, you said

 

Pollution wise, the Industrial Revolution has hurt us the most. We have actually become cleaner than then (sewage system, for example).

I think you should be first to dig up some stats to substantiate your claim then I will see what I can find.

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All-Blacks

 

The ice caps are melting, witch will lead to the oceans rising.

Doesn't anyone realise that when you put ice in water, 4/5's of it is beneath the surface. If the ice caps melt, the ocean won't rise so dramatically as most seem as most of the space taken by the ice caps will be just replaced by the water melted from the ice caps. And theres a reason for the oceans rising at this very moment, its all the ships (and other human built objects) in the ocean. Take them all out, and the sea level would drop considerably. Its not all down to 'Global Warming'.

Edited by All-Blacks

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Kovad
Alien invasion is probably NOT going to happen.

Wh...? What? WHAT?

 

NOOOOoooo... bored.gifconfused.gifcryani.gif

 

 

 

 

Our time is ok. I think this world can carry us 100-150 years more, but cant say the same thing for our grand grand children coz we r leaving them a world that is not much liveable in.

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TerminalGTA

I think this whole topic is pretty useless because who knows what could happen. As far as the main topics go, I will comment

 

Nuclear War: Well since 1945 no warhead has been dropped in a war, its unrealistic to think that all of a sudden nuclear war will break out. In fact Nuclear warheads if anything have detered a potential Third World War that could of already happened. You will notice that nuclear powers tend to avoid upsetting each other. To term that all of a sudden China or Russia will make the first move is largely ludicrous. And even if there was a nuclear war, many people would die but a proportion of the worlds population would survive, sure you might destroy civilization but not the human race.

 

As Einstein said "Im not sure what weapons World War III will be fought with, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

 

Terrorism: There is no chance that terrorism will end the human race, I mean there is no single act or even prolonged act that could end the human race, and would they want to, generally terrorism is against a host country or an ideology and normally manifests itself in low level bombs, while they are distressing in no way do they even possess the amount of potential as say a war fought under normal fighting conditions i.e no nuclear devices. If terrorists were to get the hands on WMD's, it would certainly not be enough to end humanity of for that matter even end a countries existance, they would only be able to get low level, low yield, low maintenance, and low quality weaponry which would probably have to be manually detonated as opposed to missile delivered. Therefore making increasingly hard to even invision it.

 

Global Warming: Certainly it is a threat to our actual existance, but most certainly will not get rid of us in the next 50 years, sure some parts of the world may flood, other become too arid and other become unstable because of wars of resources. While it would be a humanitarian crisis it would not end the human race. There is even a school of thought backed by many scientists that GW is actually a natural cycle of the earth as opposed to man made, regardless it will not end the world in the next 50 years.

 

Large Metorite or Comet: To be honest this is like all things, yes there is a chance that this will happen, and undoubetly it will eventually happen, but the chances are small. Considering that in the last few million years there has not been a "race-ending" meteorite to suggest there will be one in the next 50 years is somewhat unlikely, in fact extremely unlikely, however the likelihood of it happening is no less probable than it has ever been. To be honest it is viable, however we do not have enough information to suggest that this will happen. Also the longer it takes to happen would would assume the better the human race is prepared to deal with preventing it and the potential aftermath of one.

 

Disease and Virus: In my opinion, they have absolutely no chance of wiping out the human race, but of course can severely diminish numbers. Especially for example if we were to see a virus like HIV that could pass airborne or by touch. But again the human body would eventually adapt to overcome this, or science would adapt to cure it.

 

One sure thing is true, the length of the earth is not finite and the Sun will eventually turn into a Red Giant and kill everything on the earth, whether by then humans are gone or not is unknown, or whether they may no longer be earthlings and may have emigrated to a new planet. Who knows, the truth is humans will adapt to most things if they occur over a large enough period of time.

 

There is also arguement that we get out competed by other beings in the future. Perhaps mutations that will be more intelligent and can survive harsher climates.

 

There are no answers....the future remains untold, all you can say is, I would bet everything that in 50 years time we're still here and if we're not you won't be around to collect your money HAHA! biggrin.gif

Edited by TerminalGTA

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Bigs

 

Nuclear War: Well since 1945 no warhead has been dropped in a war, its unrealistic to think that all of a sudden nuclear war will break out. In fact Nuclear warheads if anything have detered a potential Third World War that could of already happened. You will notice that nuclear powers tend to avoid upsetting each other. To term that all of a sudden China or Russia will make the first move is largely ludicrous. And even if there was a nuclear war, many people would die but a proportion of the worlds population would survive, sure you might destroy civilization but not the human race.

 

I agree that it's VERY rare that a nation nowadays would intentially start nuclear war. However, accidents happen. In the 80s (I forget what year) during the coldwar, the USSR were mere minutes away from launching a series of nukes at America because they mistook a weather bloon on their radars for an American nuke. Things like that can happen nowadays too. And it only takes one to start a chain reaction of nukes from every direction, sending the world into a nuclear winter, killing most of the people, and sending the survivors back to the stone age.

 

 

 

Terrorism: There is no chance that terrorism will end the human race, I mean there is no single act or even prolonged act that could end the human race, and would they want to, generally terrorism is against a host country or an ideology and normally manifests itself in low level bombs, while they are distressing in no way do they even possess the amount of potential as say a war fought under normal fighting conditions i.e no nuclear devices. If terrorists were to get the hands on WMD's, it would certainly not be enough to end humanity of for that matter even end a countries existance, they would only be able to get low level, low yield, low maintenance, and low quality weaponry which would probably have to be manually detonated as opposed to missile delivered. Therefore making increasingly hard to even invision it.

 

That's a pretty optimistic viewpoint. Think about all of the power terrorist groups in the Middle East have. Some are so powerful that they even control the countries they reside in (ie. Hezbollah in Lebanon) and terrorist orginazations doing buisness with the soon-to-be nuclaer nation of Iran. For the right price, in a few years Iran could sell some mighty powerful bombs to terrorists. And you imply that manual detonation will hurt them, it doesn't seem that way to me. Take a terrorist armed with a nuke, smuggle him in the US (If Mexicans with no education or training can get in, so can a suicide bomber with years of tactical and strategical training. Then, he drives a vehicle into a major city...NYC, LA, you name it...boom. If they were to launch a missile, I imagine the US military could knock it out of the sky and cause minimal if any damage. Of course the initital blast isn't going to whipe out mankind, but nuclear winter is a bitch. Many would freeze to death, others would most likely die from related illnesses. A couple months/years after the blast, you're looking at a very large portion of the world's population whiped out. And this is all assuming some dumbass in charge of the US doesn't respond with a series of nukes and creating even more trouble.

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TerminalGTA

That's a pretty optimistic viewpoint. Think about all of the power terrorist groups in the Middle East have. Some are so powerful that they even control the countries they reside in (ie. Hezbollah in Lebanon) and terrorist orginazations doing buisness with the soon-to-be nuclaer nation of Iran. For the right price, in a few years Iran could sell some mighty powerful bombs to terrorists. And you imply that manual detonation will hurt them, it doesn't seem that way to me. Take a terrorist armed with a nuke, smuggle him in the US (If Mexicans with no education or training can get in, so can a suicide bomber with years of tactical and strategical training. Then, he drives a vehicle into a major city...NYC, LA, you name it...boom. If they were to launch a missile, I imagine the US military could knock it out of the sky and cause minimal if any damage. Of course the initital blast isn't going to whipe out mankind, but nuclear winter is a bitch. Many would freeze to death, others would most likely die from related illnesses. A couple months/years after the blast, you're looking at a very large portion of the world's population whiped out. And this is all assuming some dumbass in charge of the US doesn't respond with a series of nukes and creating even more trouble.

One, two, three nuclear bombs would not be sufficient to create such effects you talk about on a global scale or even a national scale. Sure economically speaking it would crush America, but the device used would have to be really small. I mean for example if you take an average warhead of 1 megatonne, any potential terrorist weapon that is manually smuggled into America would have to be many time smaller. Therefore creating a much smaller effect than even an average nuclear bomb.

 

And.....they may only ever get to do it once, as was shown America would undoubtedly invade any country that was supporting such terrorism, not only that they would recieve the backing of the international community, including nuclear powers alike.

 

I also severely doubt that Iran will be stockpiling nuclear missiles, they will have to adhere to UN conditions and inspections. It is far more likely that an ailing nuclear power such as Russia would be the likely source of a nuclear device used for terrorism.

 

One potential way I see in the future that terrorism may cause WWIII is the use of cyber terrorism. If you were able to shut of the NASDAQ or any other American National Computer System, the impact economically would be crippling perhaps allowing her enemies to seize the chance to declare war.

 

But still would not end the human race. I think a much more interesting debate is whether in 100 years time America is still the most powerful nation on earth. Arguably that is one that I doubt a little more than humanity extinct in 100 years.

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Svip
As for nuclear war, the worst case scenario is actually pretty optimistic. Us humans, we're a rather deep infection.

 

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html

That was awesome. Someone should make a film out of that. The loss of 2.7 million Danes did not please me however.

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D- Ice

 

That's a pretty optimistic viewpoint. Think about all of the power terrorist groups in the Middle East have. Some are so powerful that they even control the countries they reside in (ie. Hezbollah in Lebanon) and terrorist orginazations doing buisness with the soon-to-be nuclaer nation of Iran. For the right price, in a few years Iran could sell some mighty powerful bombs to terrorists. And you imply that manual detonation will hurt them, it doesn't seem that way to me. Take a terrorist armed with a nuke, smuggle him in the US (If Mexicans with no education or training can get in, so can a suicide bomber with years of tactical and strategical training. Then, he drives a vehicle into a major city...NYC, LA, you name it...boom. If they were to launch a missile, I imagine the US military could knock it out of the sky and cause minimal if any damage. Of course the initital blast isn't going to whipe out mankind, but nuclear winter is a bitch. Many would freeze to death, others would most likely die from related illnesses. A couple months/years after the blast, you're looking at a very large portion of the world's population whiped out. And this is all assuming some dumbass in charge of the US doesn't respond with a series of nukes and creating even more trouble.

One, two, three nuclear bombs would not be sufficient to create such effects you talk about on a global scale or even a national scale. Sure economically speaking it would crush America, but the device used would have to be really small. I mean for example if you take an average warhead of 1 megatonne, any potential terrorist weapon that is manually smuggled into America would have to be many time smaller. Therefore creating a much smaller effect than even an average nuclear bomb.

 

And.....they may only ever get to do it once, as was shown America would undoubtedly invade any country that was supporting such terrorism, not only that they would recieve the backing of the international community, including nuclear powers alike.

 

I also severely doubt that Iran will be stockpiling nuclear missiles, they will have to adhere to UN conditions and inspections. It is far more likely that an ailing nuclear power such as Russia would be the likely source of a nuclear device used for terrorism.

 

One potential way I see in the future that terrorism may cause WWIII is the use of cyber terrorism. If you were able to shut of the NASDAQ or any other American National Computer System, the impact economically would be crippling perhaps allowing her enemies to seize the chance to declare war.

 

But still would not end the human race. I think a much more interesting debate is whether in 100 years time America is still the most powerful nation on earth. Arguably that is one that I doubt a little more than humanity extinct in 100 years.

 

I also believe you are slightly over-optimistic Bigs with this current 'terrorism'.

 

First, I strongly disagree with the USA's and Western World's tendency of calling them terrorists. terrorists use force and terror to accomplish a political goal. Groups like Al-Qaeda are not terrorists. they have no political goal. Their only goal is killing the largest numbers of 'infidels' or people who don't agree with them and grenerally causing global chaos. Since the western world is the main 'superpower pact' in the world, and happen not to totally agree with there ideologies, it is a primary target.

They are not fighting the west because it is Christian, or in the name of Islam. They simply use that to get funds. They easily wont mind killing Sunni and Shia Iraqis because they disagree with them. Infact, I believe the single largest victim of modern terrorism is the iraqi people. those people should be called Anarchists, or such a word.

 

Secondly, nuclear weapons, especially large, sophisticated ones, are not hard to get hold of. After the collapse of the Soviet union, the russian mafia, and even corrupt people in the government are willing to sell to the highest bidder, just like they sold the sophisticated missile shield to Iran. Also, due to the poverty and loss of power caused by the fall of the Soviet union, these missiles are very badly guarded, in some cases by little more than a few guards and a response team armed with AK's. I suspect the only thing stopping those terrorists from getting them is they're extreme stupidity (murderous nature usually comes at the expense of something!).

Unfortunately, if those Russian idiots wont change there storage, it'll only be a matter of time.

And if they do manage to get their hands on some, the world might have not more hope. the don't give a sh*t about death, and as long as the killed or mamed as much people as possible, they are happy. If it's easier, they'll blow up their own countries just to kill more people.

Edited by D- Ice

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K^2
Secondly, nuclear weapons, especially large, sophisticated ones, are not hard to get hold of. After the collapse of the Soviet union, the russian mafia, and even corrupt people in the government are willing to sell to the highest bidder, just like they sold the sophisticated missile shield to Iran.

Nuclear bomb is not a bicycle. So maybe the terrorists can buy/steal a nuclear bomb. Do you expect it to have a big red button that makes it go boom? No. The megaton-range warheads are triggered by the navigation system which you need a Ph.D. and years of training to program. The navigation system is designed to cause warhead to self-destruct if it goes off course, so if you want it to simply detonate on the truck, you must trick it into thinking that it entered atmosphere and maneuvered to the target. As I said, that is extremely complicated. Of course, you might be thinking that there is another way to blow it up. Maybe you want to just set up some other explosives around it? No, that will only destroy the bomb. Maybe you want to build your own circuitry that will trigger the bomb's implosion explosives? That won't work either, because they have to be timed just right, and how right depends on a lot of factors. Timing on the H-bomb, which is what you'd be dealing with if you want to have a big explosion, is particularly tricky. The plutonium core of the primary must be forced to implode without damaging the deuterium-lithium secondary. It took Soviet Union and United States more than a decade to work these things out back in the 40's and 50's.

 

The worst case scenario of nuclear-terrorism is terrorists getting their hands on one of these nuclear brief-cases that are rumored to have been built by the Soviets. Fortunately, one of these, if one exists, cannot be anything more than a plutonium-core fission bomb. These things yield at about 20kT. Even if one of these goes off in the middle of the NYC, the human casualties will be in hundreds of thousands - not tens of millions that you'd get with a 1MT H-bomb.

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D- Ice
[Nuclear bomb is not a bicycle. So maybe the terrorists can buy/steal a nuclear bomb. Do you expect it to have a big red button that makes it go boom?

 

Actually, that was what i was thinking along the lines of blush.gif .

 

I don't know much about nuclear bombs, but what I do, i got from Hollywood, which like with many other things, is a very inaccurate source, altering everything so much to make it dramatic, that it ends up being complete bullsh*t. Should've saw that coming from Holywood films.

 

Thanks for the explanation on Nuclear bombs and weapons. Seems they are much more sophisticated than I thought mercie_blink.gif .

 

Hopefully that means the world is safer against nuclear terrorism than I thought.

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Nucflash

The human race CANNOT POSSIBLY be kiled off within 100 years if we tried. Even if every NUKE in the world, USA, RUSSIA, CHINA, PAKISTAN, and INDIA were fired off simultaneously. That is roughly 35,000 nuclear warheads.

 

Humans wold exist. Not saying that massiv number wouldnt die, they would. But the human race is in this one for the longhaul.

 

The only way it is possible for life o be ended, is for a major not of this earth impact which would literally equal the power of hundreds of millions of nuclear bombs.... But that probably wont happen for a few million more years or longer depending on how old you think earth really is and the odds associated with that timeline...

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coolguy123

i dont think he means stuff like nuclear warheads, i think different.

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Otter
The human race CANNOT POSSIBLY be kiled off within 100 years if we tried. Even if every NUKE in the world, USA, RUSSIA, CHINA, PAKISTAN, and INDIA were fired off simultaneously. That is roughly 35,000 nuclear warheads.

 

Humans wold exist. Not saying that massiv number wouldnt die, they would. But the human race is in this one for the longhaul.

 

The only way it is possible for life o be ended, is for a major not of this earth impact which would literally equal the power of hundreds of millions of nuclear bombs.... But that probably wont happen for a few million more years or longer depending on how old you think earth really is and the odds associated with that timeline...

Read that article I posted - you'll find it really interesting.

 

I think we'd have to try really hard to kill us all off. We'd have to do something like burning off the entire atmosphere, creating some kind of super virus, or literally destroying the planet.

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Saggy

Didn't the explosion of the super-volcanoes under Yellowstone kill off just about all of humanity some odd millions of years ago? An explosion millions of times more powerful than any nuclear bombs we have, at a time where we didn't have nearly the population we have now.

 

The idea of humans dying off in the next hundred years is completely unrealistic. Not even a plague could kill everyone off in that amount of time. The only things that could wipe out humans are asteroid, meteor, or comet impacts. Even then, we've survived several of these as a species, but we know they are entirely capable of wiping out a species.

Edited by SagaciousKJB

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K^2
The human race CANNOT POSSIBLY be kiled off within 100 years if we tried. Even if every NUKE in the world, USA, RUSSIA, CHINA, PAKISTAN, and INDIA were fired off simultaneously. That is roughly 35,000 nuclear warheads.

 

Humans wold exist. Not saying that massiv number wouldnt die, they would. But the human race is in this one for the longhaul.

 

The only way it is possible for life o be ended, is for a major not of this earth impact which would literally equal the power of hundreds of millions of nuclear bombs.... But that probably wont happen for a few million more years or longer depending on how old you think earth really is and the odds associated with that timeline...

Actually, there might be a way to destroy nearly all land life and most of the marine life with existing technology. I have an idea for a device which should generate a powerful enough blast. Of course, it only works on paper. I don't know if it would actually do what I think it would.

 

Though, personally, I don't really think of extinction of humans as an extinction of the species. If the civilization collapses completely, for me, it is pretty much the same thing. That's what I think of when people are predicting the extinction within a hundred years. And it seems quite possible.

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