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BLOOD
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#1231

Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:36 PM Edited by BLOOD, 13 February 2018 - 01:40 PM.

It sure will be down today and possibly the rest of the week. TTWO will likely do few acquisitions this year to get ready for the future [esp. the next recession]. R* and 2K are fine, bolster Mobile -SP-, Indie -PD-, esports -NBA 2K League, which will also lead them into being the first public gaming company in the US to vertically own a successful gaming -core business- and a media businesses [they were the first in the US to own a comic book publishing label- now shuttered].

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#1232

Posted 13 February 2018 - 03:26 PM

whats happening with Ubisoft ? 

 

 

https://finance.yaho...m/quote/UBI.PA/


Efreet
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#1233

Posted 13 February 2018 - 03:31 PM

Earnings release. 


BLOOD
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#1234

Posted 13 February 2018 - 05:48 PM Edited by BLOOD, 13 February 2018 - 09:49 PM.

I think China is about to ban Grand Theft Auto (GTA). Not a good news for TTWO but I bet Tencent influenced their stupid communist government policy in this matter. And i think they were going to buy TTWO years ago but Strauss Zelnick and co also rejected their proposal.

FlatFX: Ubisoft is up because of earnings report last night.

Jason
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#1235

Posted 13 February 2018 - 06:19 PM

Might interest some of you folk to know that Ubisoft also detailed why they've shifted to games as a service too: link.


Efreet
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#1236

Posted 13 February 2018 - 06:35 PM Edited by Efreet, 13 February 2018 - 06:35 PM.

Bloomberg: China looking to block violent 'Grand Theft Auto'


FlatFX
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#1237

Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:19 PM

The gaming sector really has lost its steam for now.
Market green and gaming in red zone

GTA ban is not really crazy news if they dont sell it officially anyway in China
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Jason
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#1238

Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:52 PM

If I recall, China tend to block a crap ton of games - usually enforced by Chinese companies so they can make their own copycat game. Most game devs simply don't sell the game there or partner with a Chinese publisher for that reason.

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BLOOD
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#1239

Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:42 PM Edited by BLOOD, 13 February 2018 - 09:47 PM.

Bloomberg: China looking to block violent 'Grand Theft Auto'

Tencent influenced this decision same way they also influenced Chinese government shut down Steam, and also letting them be the only one to being PUBG to China. God I am absolutely dusguted. This news made TTWO end lower today, hopefully the Chinese player base of GTA is not that much [SZ likely will respond to this in the next few days or even Q4 2018] and I hope they do not do this to NBA 2K Online.

FlatFX: Great comment, interesting only EA is up amongst the "Big 3" and great to hear that GTA is not sold legally in China.

Jason: True That.
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BLOOD
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#1240

Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:31 PM

To be fair to Electronic Arts (EA) -we all hate them, esp. me- they have the largest gaming library in the world and have a dominance in sports, and also a mobile business bigger than Glu, Gameloft, Rovio, Zynga combined [in terms if revenue]. The reason they are up since earnings while ATVI and TTWO are down. If the New Battlefield is another hit, they will become a $45 Billion market cap company at the end of 2018. In any crazy scenario -and I hate to say this- TTWO should sell to them and if the merger is even approved [imagine #2 and #3 game companies merging lol] and with the franchises and talent of TTWO coupled with the cash they likely won't use even with us -mostly me- wanting them to do acquisitions, and also EA's cash, the combined company will be "god of gaming".



Note: a Firaxis owned by EA making a new C&C will sell like pancakes. And WWE and UFC under one roof will be crazy.

BLOOD
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#1241

Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:19 AM Edited by BLOOD, 14 February 2018 - 11:52 AM.

https://www.gamesind...-media-for-121m

GREATNESS!

Note: Now I so hope Take-Two (TTWO) buys THQ Nordic for $1 Billion cash and stock deal. Then rename to The THQ Company [making it a US-base game company again].

Efreet
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#1242

Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:32 PM Edited by Efreet, 14 February 2018 - 03:33 PM.

The market is very green today. What is up with $TTWO? Investors are losing interest with no new title soon? Redemption II delay, plus the small miss in Net Revenue are probably two reasons, and that Chinese thing recently. I don't know, but if the market keeps going higher, eyes will be back again to $TTWO as we approach the full fiscal year report in May. Until then, and given a bull market, $TTWO will definitely slip back into $120s. 

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FlatFX
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#1243

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:03 PM Edited by FlatFX, 14 February 2018 - 05:06 PM.

thank god the market did not go crazy today because of the higher than expected inflation. the only crazy thing is that the Dollar weakens

 

Take Two is definately the big looser of the christmas season. While all big gaming companies are already back on track TTWO lacks behind 20%

I started another investment with Activision last week. 

 

The next few month are quite empty. We can expect RDR2 news and I think we will see the Borderlands 3 reveal far before E3 already quite soon. 

 

Why?

-It can give positive momentum to the stock that there is another title in development which provides growth

- It hypes community

- It does not drag attention from RDR2 prior to E3

 

You can be sure E3 will be the big RDR2 event. 

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FlatFX
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#1244

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:09 PM Edited by FlatFX, 14 February 2018 - 05:11 PM.

OK i just stumbled over something 

 

http://comicbook.com...oft-activision/

 

That's huge! Unfortunately TTWO is not mentioned. 

 

EA - 25% Activision + 25% if they annonce this officially :D

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BLOOD
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#1245

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:22 PM Edited by BLOOD, 14 February 2018 - 05:29 PM.

New Year end market cap prediction for all game companies:

#1.Activision Blizzard: $65 Billion
#2.Electronic Arts (EA): $42 Billion
#3.Nexon: $16 Billion
#4.Take-Two: $13 Billion
#5.Netmarble: $12 Billion
#6.Konami: $11 Billion
#7.Bandai Namco: $10 Billion
#8.Ubisoft: $9 Billion
#9.Square Enix: $7 Billion
#10.Sega: $6 Billion
#11.Capcom: $5 Billion
#12.CD Project Red: $4 Billion
#13.THQ Nordic: $3.9 Billion
#14.Zynga: $3.5 Billion
#15.Paradox: $2 Billion
#16.Rovio: $1 Billion
#17.Glu: $500 Million
#18.Next Games: $300 Million


FlatFX: "The reporter notes, I know what youre thinking, because I had the same thoughts. EA has a contract for the games, exclusively. How could Disney get around that without breaching and causing more problems? I dont know all the technical aspects of it, but supposedly theres an addendum of some kind within the contract that would allow Disney to pull the license, or shop it around, if certain standards/conditions werent being met."

http://comicbook.com...oft-activision/

Efreet
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#1246

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:33 PM Edited by Efreet, 14 February 2018 - 05:35 PM.

Are you confusing Take-Two's market cap, Blood? It's now at $12B, so you're only saying that it will only be $1B more by end of year? Seems like you're thinking of a larger correction and then a rebound from a more discounted valuation, or? 

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BLOOD
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#1247

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:05 PM Edited by BLOOD, 14 February 2018 - 06:12 PM.

That plus another delay of one if their titles either RDR2 or that 2K unannounced game, they could also like miss their 2019 guidance. Anyway, I think I will buy all of these gaming stock my top five will be not ranked but percentage (this is depending on outlook)

Activision Blizzard (ATVI): 55% of my gaming portfolio. reason: Best gaming company on earth right now. With a diversified business and a fantastic library of franchises 😎

Electronic Arts (EA): 22% of my gaming portfolio. reason: Tbh, I think I have a frenemy situation with them grew up playing Army of Two, Fifa, Dead Space, and I will literally throw my money for a new Fight Night 😂

Take-Two (TTWO): 20% of my gaming portfolio. reason: passionate fanboy of the company, it R* label, GTA fanboy, and a Strauss Zelnick. however I get frustrated with their outlook alot and they need to put that $1.3 Billion to great use 😂

THQ Nordic (THQNB): 2% of my gaming portfolio. reason: Thank God a New THQ exist today and I am loving the comeback and now own almost of Old THQ assets and even more [hope we get a rebooted Saints Row] ❤

Ubisoft (UBI.P): 1% of my gaming portfolio. reason: I hope they don't get acquired, a lot of potentials 😀

Efreet
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#1248

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:18 PM Edited by Efreet, 14 February 2018 - 06:19 PM.

Well, in my opinion, if market returns to all-time high and then starts to churn higher, $TTWO will follow suit and end up being $18B-20B by end of year. No body expects surprises during the first two quarters of the next fiscal year, but that shouldn't stop investors bidding on ask prices and driving it to all-time high in anticipation for Redemption 2, 2K's unannounced game and probably other secrets like V on the Switch. 


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#1249

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:22 PM Edited by BLOOD, 14 February 2018 - 07:09 PM.

$20 Billion is now likely 2020-2021. The only major game company with a tiny slate, less diversified library, plus so reliant on all things R*. They should buy ZeniMax and rename the combined company to Bethesda Interactive Inc, while Bethesda Softworks is the sole publishing label and all other labels becomes development studios, people like Todd and Haines can replace the Housers. And their sport franchises should reduce to just NBA. Kill the 2K brand. Take-Two lives on in the TTWO stock symbol and their shareholders own 80% while ZeniMax shareholders own 20%. The company needs to make a game changing move, Social Point was a good acquisition and starting PD was good but they are still the underdogs in the gaming world with no brand recognition apart from R* being a global brand. Come on put that $1.3 Billion in cash to use or sell the company.

Note: one of my point also now proven right, all gaming stock around the world is up except for TTWO.

And I can be a fan does not mean I am a sucker, never will be plus I love criticising companies either I like them or not.

Efreet
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#1250

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:49 PM

This perspective about the current stock market is interesting 


BLOOD
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#1251

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:07 PM Edited by BLOOD, 14 February 2018 - 07:13 PM.

Nice one Efreet. Anyhow, The new name for the combined New THQ Nordic and Koch Media which will be known in May will most like be THQ Company GMBH or THQ Group GMBH. Great moves. New THQ will even be greater than the Old THQ Inc. (THQ USA, Original THQ). Volition is destined to be owned by a corporate entity named THQ [lol].

$1.3 Billion market cap, will finish the year with $4 Billion market cap, even Old THQ Inc. did not reach that. Greatness! ❤

FlatFX
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#1252

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:27 PM

Its tough to find a stock which is not green today but T2 is on of them ...
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BLOOD
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#1253

Posted 14 February 2018 - 08:33 PM Edited by BLOOD, 14 February 2018 - 08:50 PM.

Activision Blizzard, and EA are both up. Capcom, THQ, Ubisoft, and Zynga are also up.

Take-Two are the most sluggish publicly traded company ever! [Even SZ said that but in a different way a while ago]

BLOOD
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#1254

Posted 14 February 2018 - 09:27 PM

I already ask for a renaming, so we can discuss a lot including stocks of other companies etc.

Efreet
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#1255

Posted 15 February 2018 - 04:28 AM Edited by Efreet, 15 February 2018 - 04:43 AM.

Take-Two are the most sluggish publicly traded company ever! [Even SZ said that but in a different way a while ago]

 

Based on what criterion? 5-years return on equity, $TTWO beats out $ATVI and $EA by a large margin. It's weird to see the stock down 1% while other stocks are climbing higher again, I agree, but I don't think the Chinese thing has anything to do with it since Grand Theft Auto, and many Western games, are prohibited from officially releasing in the country. Th news isn't new. 

 

The Steam Community has been blocked in China


BLOOD
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#1256

Posted 15 February 2018 - 09:13 AM Edited by BLOOD, 15 February 2018 - 09:30 AM.

Sluggish strategy. The company still depend a lot on one Franchise GTA. They were also late to mobile with the Social Point acquisition -heck they don't even break out mobile numbers- plus the massive surge in stock price is all to do with RDR2 and God Forbid that game have a toxic reviews the company will drop down to about $7-8 Billion or even less. And esports will most likely be dominated by the likes of Activision, EA, Capcom, Bandai Namco, et.al. They need to do the unexpected buy a big rival like Zenimax or even Square Enix change the company structure, too many labels, no damn synergy. I bet if Strauss Zelnick told Wall Street he is open to a merger with another company or selling assets they will have the biggest surge in their publicly traded history. I am a fan of the company but they need to change their underdog status big time and in a big way.

Note: I will be a ZeniMax fanboy the day they announce they are going to buy Take-Two with the combined company taking on the Bethesda name or a unified brand.


Another note: Take-Two is also the only publicly traded game company that pays royalties to staffs- mainly the Houser brothers showing how totally dependent they are on two employees. Activision Blizzard let the Call of Duty, Infinity Ward execs go and that franchise keep killing it every year.

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#1257

Posted 15 February 2018 - 10:31 AM Edited by Efreet, 15 February 2018 - 10:31 AM.

I don't think that the surge in the stock was due to Redemption 2, nor I do believe that a better-than-expected success of the game is priced in the stock. If we talk about the stock moving from $50 to $100, then it's mainly due to the surprising growth in recurrent consumer spending from last Spring. The Street's expectations were modest which allowed Take2 to post results that made a large surprise to the upside, both on top and bottom line. That, in addition, to the incredible bullish rally during the second half of 2017, which pushed small to medium cap tech stocks to make insane gains in just half a year, supported by the earnings growth seen across the whole industry. Now, if you believe the Street was intentionally downplaying their expectations to pump $TTWO, and possibly other tech stocks, to new highs, then it'd be a different line of thinking. 


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#1258

Posted 15 February 2018 - 10:53 AM Edited by BLOOD, 15 February 2018 - 11:10 AM.

https://finance.yaho...-021300196.html

https://finance.yaho...-165000404.html

Note: excluding annual sport titles, TTWO biggest hit to-date is GTA V and it online component. Even SZ said the company never expected that. I am a fan of the company but I don't think they are a great investment unlike rivals ATVI and EA. Heck even UBI, THQNB, and ZNGA are good investment. TTWO is way too risky. And I am someone who believes in Long-Term vision and investment.

Another Note: So far they have only one title announced for 2018-2019. Meanwhile every other public game company have six or seven titles for 2018-2019. And they are very sketchy when it comes to details and rarely do conventions [ironically SZ is the Chairman of ESA owner of E3].

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#1259

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:18 PM Edited by Efreet, 15 February 2018 - 01:28 PM.

It's interesting to see BLOOD looking into $TTWO from a bearish perspective. What happened to the 'onward and forward, never backward' mantra? Haha. I agree that you need to look at a stock investment from both perspectives, the bull and the bear, but Blood.... has changed. The recent correction hit us hard and made us to question our investment realities. I agree that TTWO is riskier than ATVI and EA, especially during the next fiscal year with Redemption II. This game could be a hit or a miss for the company, sales and reviews wise. It's one reason why I think R* may get stuck alternating between GTA and Red Dead. They won't spend 4 years worth of development to release an untested IP. I'm not that bullish for ATVI and EA, simply because the upside for both is minimal with slower earnings growth compared than their smaller peer, TTWO. You might as well consider to mitigate the risk by considering $GAMR ETF. 

 

Interesting times, as I always said! 

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Jason
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#1260

Posted 15 February 2018 - 02:40 PM Edited by Jason, 15 February 2018 - 02:42 PM.

And esports will most likely be dominated by the likes of Activision, EA, Capcom, Bandai Namco, et.al.

 

To repeat what I've said in the past, none of these companies dominate eSports. In the west, eSports is dominated by Valve and Riot and everyone else is far behind. Or let me put it this way, if Take-Two managed to match Overwatch's eSports leagues average Twitch viewer count with say NBA 2K they'd still be about only 10% of the way to catching Valve's Counter-Strike and Dota average Twitch viewer counts.

 

As for Take-Two in general, they're doing fine. If you thought you they were going to continually increase in value at the same rate they did around last year you're smoking craycray, it was never realistic. That doesn't mean the answer is buying another major player out, either. It might increase their value but that's a lot of things to integrate into your company and take overs like that always end up in people being let go due to a overlap in jobs or disinterest in working for the new parent company and that could possibly include key creative talent (also one of the reasons buying Take-Two/Rockstar is risky). Not to mention a sudden growth like that isn't always a good thing. But Take-Two are still going strong, still expanding, have a whopper game out in the Fall, Borderlands 3 to be announced, new game from Ken Levine's new team, etc etc. No need to start panicking over their future.

 

They won't spend 4 years worth of development to release an untested IP.

 

New IP isn't as risky as it used to be, we've seen a lot of big developers launch new IP this gen to massive success. I think a large part of that is the gaming masses are generally more educated to developers now, where as last gen they mainly followed game franchises. Everyone knows who Rockstar and Blizzard are now, or which developer is making the next CoD, etc.

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