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Demoscat
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#121

Posted 29 September 2017 - 03:33 PM Edited by Demoscat, 29 September 2017 - 03:48 PM.

Again, I don't think anyone in here is suggesting that Spain can effectively prevent Catalonia independence,[1] but they - along with the rest of EU and the world - can effectively (and probably will) prevent a successful independence. That is, a separation of Spain without a prolonged period of downturn and hardship for Catalonians.

On independence, Catalonia will insist like we continue being schengen and euro and will not close our borders. I doubt european will create borders to repress Catalonia, this ghostly legitimacy will keep Catalonia in europe on practice. Massive catalan movilizations on brussels and a massive civilized european route to get signatures from all european countries will impact to much to be ignored. Marketing campaigns on europe for catalan acceptation without reapplying for years will be very potent marchs to please citizens europeans from all countries and will unite europe on the feeling of accepting catalans, a modern pro european nation, since the beginning.

 

While all of this is happening a period of "downturn and hardship" with Spain and Europe is already covered on independentist economic plans. At start of independence spanish debt will not be accepted because this is key to negotiate with Spain and Europe.  This implies while we are officially out of Europe as repression we have 0 debt for this downtime phase of independence and will dedicate our no debt start to increase rights of catalans like radically changing energy industry for a cheapest and green energy plan and increasing GDP per capita by . Catalan think tanks have plans for a wealthy future and know international studies and advices about how to adchieve this: 

-earned income tax credits (EITCs) We believe EITCs are more appropriate than current moves to raise minimum wages given the latter could lead to higher unemployment

-lowering tax wedges

-incentives to support self-employment. 

-Preparing a basic income for all catalan citizens, this could warrant a minimun standard of living. 

Souce: http://www.oxfordmar...logy_Work_2.pdf

 

 

It's also easy to sit inside Catalonia and think a large portion of the rest of the world is sympathetic. But in reality, while there are sympathetic voices, they are in the vast minority and most of them don't care enough about Catalonia to actively do something when push comes to shove.

The fact that Catalonia has the largest percentage of tourists in Spain doesn't make a damn difference. Hell, if independence happens, and it throws getting to Catalonia into chaos (Will Catalonia be part of EASA? Will flights be permitted to cross Spanish airspace into Catalonia? Will France allow it? Airlines have deals with Spain, not Catalonia, how will they arrange flights to Catalonia immediately? etc.), the immediately reaction from tourists would be irritation at the Catalonia independence, because it is disrupting their holiday plans. It will hardly be sympathetic.

[1] That is, without the threat or use of force

 

Sympathethyc voices will increase to majorities because the world will be informed of everything we do, the plans of catalan government will be exquisite from both: the right and  the left points of view. Catalan plans will be a model for future societies, we aren't Kurdistan, we already have studied lots of plans to grow and change to become a better country for citizens after independence. Catalonia wants to be a model of future and this is NOT empty speech about awaiting a divine destiny; catalans have a lot of pro active and realistic plans for a radical change and drive our future with success on harmony with European marketing and the future needs and objectives.

 

About tourism, catalonia will play to ignore independence on flight arrengements and pretend we inherited spanish arrengements about flights with others countries. While this is negated, if it is, there are lots of other countries wanting special arrangements to stop on mediterranean. Madrid have been boycotting flights to Catalonia already, and force other countries to stop preferently on Madrid. After independence, Madrid will have to openly compete with Barcelona without spain's dirty policies ruling catalans airports. Also seaports will benefit from not having to invest 50% of the private benefits on rescueing every year the more than six brankrupted seaports of Spain.

 

Finally our selfdetermination will allow us to create new arrangements, Madrid for the past 20 years derailed sea and air arrangements to be derailed from Catalonia to Madrid or other regions. It was a soft boycott year by year. We are very tired of Spain, we will do much better now. Like the mediterranean corridor, derailed for twenty years to pass for Madrid, hello? wheres the mediterranean on Madrid? :D its centralism have been critizied by europe from a lot of time ago. Madrid used mediterranean corridor to invest european

money against catalan needs and european technician logics.

 

First spanish proposal:

Corredor-Ferroviario-Central.jpg

 

European plans:

mapa-oficial-del-sorprendente-corredor-m

at the left the logic of european technicians for mediterranean corridor, at the right the counterproposal of Spain, like always, against Catalonia (and Valencia, another abused catalan country)

 

Europe didn't accept but european money have been wasted and foudned first the first spanish plan, now they needed more money and are doing spanish counterproposals. Since a mont or two ago Spain is saying the european proposal will be made. Now that Catalonia is leaving tired of Spanish boycotts? haha

 

You have no idea how is being the second most populous region of Spain and always be boycottd and mistreated, economically and culturally with dirty Madrid policies.

 

 

 

And anger Spain? Other countries who gained independence were not immediately accepted. Even Scotland would have to negotiate entrance to EU if it gets its independence. Why would Catalonia be different?

 

That's what is said to persuade from succession. But you must be joking if you think Europe will accept migrants but not their previous european citizens under a new country name. This would break Europe if they dont accept them instantly. Like I said, accepting sirian migrants but no a new country that their citizens already had membership of europe would threaten human rights and faith on a democratic Europe. The only way is accepting the previous european citizens as fast as possible, with a soft period of half acceptance, but this soft period will put european reputation in danger of breaking human rights, because scottish/catalan want to continue being european. That is something that never happened before.

 

Anger Spain is futile as European human rights and the previous policies like welcoming reffuggees comes first and acceptance of democracy is the whole reputation of Europe.

 

 

People and tourists don't get to decide anything, though; governments and nations do. It doesn't matter if Catalans aren't aggressive, are very friendly, were oppresed by Franco 60 years ago, are treated badly by Spain etc etc. None of that matters, because people also have their own problems at home. Not to mention, since Europe is focused on unity, any news regarding the independence will be filtered through independence-unfriendly filters. I mean, it's a given. Unless you get everyone to go and make up their own minds (no nation can do this), they'll know about Catalan largely what their countries want to know. That's a fact. 

 
Just like most of EU would side with Spain, as would China, Latin America, US, Middle East. So all of those nations would simply portray the independence as bad, or give very little coverage to it, as they've done with the problems in Kosovo and other nations post-intervention. This is all fact that you are ignoring.

After independence, Europe is forced to change its mind and instantly accept Catalonia, because how could you welcome far away reffugges and negate membership to people that yesterday were european and want to stay? Not accepting them fast enough is more theatening to Europe than angering Spain. Why Hungary or Polland would accept Brussels policies in Human Rights and democracy name after this? I am sorry but I dont envision Europe accepting to get a bad reputation of mistreating small countries than want to stay european after succession. The price is much higher than promoting new independence remaining inside Europe. As neighbours inside europe anything is possible like helping the poor regions behind, but at the moment Europe starts to mistreat small countries, this will be the end of the faith in a good Europe. And every time a EU country have a problem wil seek help outside breaking faith on Europe even more. Catalonia will be a change of mindset forever, in a good or a bad way, and will have consequences even if they mistreat Catalonia because they dont want to accept consequences, consequences will come by backing sirian but not neighbours wanting to continue being europeans.

 

In the worst case, if Europe thinks mistreating catalans will be safer, new actors (international countries) will arrive to get the flag of human rights on the case of europe mistreates catalans. It will be a great opportunity for a worlwide leading China, Russia (BRICKS) and promote their economies while they can show their civilizations like more social and merciful than Europe.

 

 

 

Europe will tolerate whatever it has to tolerate in the name of unity and stability. They've tolerated wars in the Balkans before up until it was better to intervene. They will do the same thing with Catalonia. As Svip put it, even if independence is granted, which would take many years to happen due to all aforementioned reasons, it will be on Europe's terms. And they will be harsh with Catalonia. And it is no threat to Europe, as Catalonia is basically one big famous city surrounded by other smaller villages.

No, its ver dangerous to Europe and a greater threat to misstreat Catalonia but welcome muslim reffuggees like they did. Europe will rebel against this lie and will lost its human right and democratic reputation forever. All islamophobic european countries will rebel and will use the mistreated catalans to show european inmorality and break all the faith in big countries leading Europe. If Europe focus on unity and stability, will have greater consequences to Europe. The only good way for Europe is accept the previous european citizens intantly under a new country name.  Like the half of Europe are little countries, even smaller than Catalonia (7,523,000).

23px-Flag_of_Malta.svg.png Malta 429,344 

 23px-Flag_of_Luxembourg.svg.png Luxembourg 562,958  

23px-Flag_of_Cyprus.svg.png Cyprus 847,008  

23px-Flag_of_Estonia.svg.png Estonia 1,315,944

23px-Flag_of_Latvia.svg.png Latvia 1,986,096

23px-Flag_of_Slovenia.svg.png Slovenia 2,062,874 

 23px-Flag_of_Lithuania.svg.png Lithuania 2,921,262

23px-Flag_of_Croatia.svg.png Croatia 4,225,316 

 23px-Flag_of_Ireland.svg.png Ireland 4,625,885 

 23px-Flag_of_Slovakia.svg.png Slovakia 5,421,349 

 23px-Flag_of_Finland.svg.png Finland 5,471,753

20px-Flag_of_Denmark.svg.png Denmark 5,659,715 

 23px-Flag_of_Bulgaria.svg.png Bulgaria 7,202,198 

Hungary, Austria, Czech Republic and Polland would side with small countries. because they had penalty fee from Brussels for being forced to welcome EU foreigner muslim reffuggees. What lie of fake morality is to accept reffugges but not instantly accept europeans? this would break faith and obedience on Brusells forever.

 

There is no way small countries will accept the selfish unity and stability of big countries while treathening small by forcing them on accepting muslim reffuggess and mistreating catalans (previous europeans) because they are a small country. Mistreating catalans would have a greater impact on Europe.

 

Have they now? How is the industry of Catalonia going to cope with having to manufacture pretty much everything by itself until it gets deals in places with an unfriendly Europe and neighbour Spain? How will business be handled if they are currently owned by Spanish citizens? Will Catalonia simply nationalize everything? Or buy off the Spanish? How will all the bureaucracy be handled? And more, what will happen in the inbetween years? Independence wouldn't be something that would happen in a day, a week, a month, or even a year. It would take several years to get everything done properly. What happens to citizens of both countries until then? What happens to the EU? If they simply admit Catalonia in, they'll have to do the same for other nations as well, as they were also granted independence, with the support of EU countries no less.

 

And more importantly, what happens if it all goes wrong? What are the plans in case a separation results in the economy of Catalonia breaking down, in tourists no longer visiting thanks to instability, if the industry can't compete with others, what happens then?

Catalonia will pretend to inherit their spanish treaties on european membership and internationally by default, this will be the catalan law. We aren't going to accept how we should be from outside. We will march to brussels and do tours all along europe to explain what we did and how this can help others by accepting recognization of catalan laws, and accept more democracy and welcome our wish of continuity as european citizenships. Internationally we will be very active to ensure other countries see this like an opportunity for a more direct democracy on future european crisis. We will polarize everything to help us to be the leading and most innovative democracy on Europe. That's going to be unstoppable.

 

If you think catalans are bad on planning you dont know catalans. Catalan think tanks have been working for years doing lots of good plans for everything except on the case of prolonged violence. Catalonia is not violent, but violence would be rejected internationally. If we speak of prolonged violence this would be mass murdering and genocide made by Spain on catalans. I dont think this happens. I think many countries would send their army to protect catalans if this crazy scenario happens. Europe would break. 

 

Generally, Europe will have consequences if misstreats Catalonia for the big countries selfish interest. Like I said small countries have been forced to accept things in the name of human rights or a moral superiority of inclusive policies, this would break all the faith and good reputation of Europe.


Svip
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#122

Posted 29 September 2017 - 03:59 PM

While an armed conflict is likely to be condemned internationally, it's unlikely that other nations will intervene to protect Catalonia, as it would only escalate the conflict and make the situation worse.

Article 155 of the Spanish constitution basically allows for Spain to remove the Catalonian government. If Catalonia declares independence, I find it hard to see how that would be exercised. And when Catalonia's government fails to comply, either Spain will send force or fully cut off Catalonia, in a hope that it comes to its senses and accept being a Spanish community. I could see an international mediator entering here.

Indeed, you don't seem to really tackle Tchuck's good question; what if things don't work out as great as you hope? Isn't there some truth to the old saying, 'hope for the best, plan for the worst'? Is Catalonia planning for the worst, or just hoping that some of their backup plans will work out? Even though, all of them seem very hypothetical at this point.
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Demoscat
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#123

Posted 29 September 2017 - 04:25 PM Edited by Demoscat, 29 September 2017 - 05:31 PM.

While an armed conflict is likely to be condemned internationally, it's unlikely that other nations will intervene to protect Catalonia, as it would only escalate the conflict and make the situation worse.

Article 155 of the Spanish constitution basically allows for Spain to remove the Catalonian government. If Catalonia declares independence, I find it hard to see how that would be exercised. And when Catalonia's government fails to comply, either Spain will send force or fully cut off Catalonia, in a hope that it comes to its senses and accept being a Spanish community. I could see an international mediator entering here.

Indeed, you don't seem to really tackle Tchuck's good question; what if things don't work out as great as you hope? Isn't there some truth to the old saying, 'hope for the best, plan for the worst'? Is Catalonia planning for the worst, or just hoping that some of their backup plans will work out? Even though, all of them seem very hypothetical at this point.

Armed conflict will not happen, and if a genocide happens, Europe would kick Spain and protect catalans. Catalans have endured a bully behavior of Spain for three centuries, and independentist think tanks have been working hard for years to how to win freedoom on a democratic and peaceful manner.

Catalonia have everything planned. Spain is on panic and starting to selfrecognization the guilt of bullying and robbery of Spanish State to Catalonia http://www.expansion.com/economia/2017/09/29/59cd50b8ca47412c6d8b45c1.html 

 

Article 155 is already being applied without being directly, economically and police are being interfered and manipulated against the democratically willl of majority catalans. Spain is being governed by Popular Party, voted by only like 27% of spanish voters, while independentist have 49% of the catalan voters. Catalonia is a lot more legitimated. Also the 16% of catalan voters want catalan selfdetermination but on agreement with spain. PP is so corrupt and fascist to gain back Catalonia. Disobedience to Madrid will be absolutely unstoppable and Europe will have to intervene having consideration of catalans will, because if Europe acts like the big countries club, the medium and small countries that suffered penalty fees and menaces in the name of Brussels, will team and rebel. Catalonia is going to change everything, Europe can't evade the consequences of being autoflagged as democrats and  warranted respectful on human rights.

 

Spain doesn't have a future or a viable plan, catalan plans are much better and promises to help on cleaning corruption of big countries mistreating the citizens on every crisis. Europe will have to change its mindset and follow catalan ideas. Catalonia will sell those ideas very well, touring and marching peacefully across european countries. Like I said Catalonia will pack together Catalan independence and the opportunity to increase democracy and future plans for warrant a grow of citizen rights policies. The catalan speech have been always very innovative modern and european and will get good reflections on Europe.  There is no one in Europe as active on good marketing and appealing shows of human rights ideas as Catalonia. Catalan thinking is to much on harmonny with european progressive principles, that's another reason for Catalonia to not be ignored.

 

Will big countries demonstrate equality of accepting risks in the name of human rights like they forced half o europe to risk their countries to welcoming reffuggees against their interest? Whatever Europe does, will have consequences, the safe option will break Europe on the long run because faith on confidency and equality is very hard to be gained back again.

 

The only way for Europe to mistreat catalans is changing european mindset to a corrupt club of big countries, where everyone else would want to escape.


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#124

Posted 29 September 2017 - 08:43 PM

There is a big difference between denying Catalonia EU membership and denying Catalans human rights. EU membership is not a human right. Neither is the Euro or the Schengen agreement. And numerous other European treaties.

I am confident the EU will provide Catalonia with access to basic resources as to avoid a humanitarian crisis.

Personally, I believe Catalan independence will happen sooner or later. But until Spain accepts that, I don't think it's going to be pretty. I get Catalan lack of patience with the issue, but Spain and the EU aren't completely feckless, and they have plenty of tools at their disposal to make the independence a disaster.

But yeah, sooner or later, it's gonna happen. Not sure it's gonna be great, though. I will most likely shrug. My only real opposition to the independence movement is that I fear that are about to open a larger can of worms than they realise and that a lot of Catalans don't actually want independence, and their voices are unlikely to get heard in a referendum that is difficult to vote in.

Which is also why Spain should basically grant them a proper referendum, so it doesn't turn into a mess. But now it's gonna be a mess. And that does not bode well for Spain and Catalonia.
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Demoscat
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#125

Posted 29 September 2017 - 10:49 PM Edited by Demoscat, 30 September 2017 - 01:58 AM.

I would not call catalans to lack of patience with the issue. :D Catalans endured spanish abuses for a long long time, only because catalans are peaceful. The basques thanks to their past of terrorism have spanish granted  max selfgovernance and full money resources to selfadministrate called "concierto vasco" or "cupo".  Since the year 2008 and worlwide bank crisis, the austerity did push Madrid to abuse more heavily on catalans taxes.

 

I have been independentist since I was a teen, so for me it's gonna be great. Catalonia will endure some more bullying but spanish patriots always did this. Castile nationalism behind this Spain is absolutely poisoned of a never-defeated-fascism pride. Europe will have to help on rebooting this mindset if Europe wants a future united Europe without big countries prides menacing their small/poor euro neighbours.

 

Catalan independentist is a good opportunity for Europe and never have another Brexit caused by big countries. Big countries nationalism is bad for a federated Europe Union.

 

I am glad of debating with you. You seem very well informed on spanish things. Just a note: the rotten worms are already there menacing democracy and europe with their big countries fascist-like nationalism pride.


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#126

Posted 01 October 2017 - 06:22 PM

There was a lot of violence and chaos in Catalonia today. As someone from Balkan,I hope that people there will solve problem peacefully,with out further bloodshed,and that both governments in Madrid and Barcelona will think about their citizens first.


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#127

Posted 01 October 2017 - 11:08 PM Edited by Tchuck, 02 October 2017 - 07:50 AM.

Man Spain surely is trying its hardest to make the Catalonia independence happen.

Actually, isn't there a clause in the EU about kicking off nations that use military force against its own population? Wouldn't Spain sort of fit into that clause, or can they get a pass because the police isn't "actually" a military force?


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#128

Posted 02 October 2017 - 07:45 AM

But yeah, sooner or later, it's gonna happen. Not sure it's gonna be great, though. I will most likely shrug. My only real opposition to the independence movement is that I fear that are about to open a larger can of worms than they realise and that a lot of Catalans don't actually want independence, and their voices are unlikely to get heard in a referendum that is difficult to vote in.

Which is also why Spain should basically grant them a proper referendum, so it doesn't turn into a mess. But now it's gonna be a mess. And that does not bode well for Spain and Catalonia.

I've been saying that for a few years now. Madrid should have pushed to make referendum happen. Their only goal would be to make sure that as large a fraction of people who support unity show up at the polls as these who support separation, and they had all the instruments to make it happen. National news, local adds, etc. Odds are, it'd go exactly the same as Scottish referendum, with majority voting to stay. If worst was to happen, and Catalonia still voted to leave, Spanish gov't could still fall back to the constitution, promising further talks, and otherwise dragging its feet. They could drag it on for well over a decade, seeing how current constitution doesn't allow it, and pretending to go along with it would make any unilateral declaration of independence really easy to shoot down. Spain literally held all the cards there. Until yesterday.

By banning referendum, then sending in police to commit violence against their own people (and what did they expect police were going to do?), Spanish gov't effectively guaranteed that nearly every person who wanted independence plus a good number of people who were neutral up to that point, are going to show up and vote for independence. With people who supported the unity staying home away from the police. Result, in population split 40%/60% to leave/stay, a 40% turnout with 90% to leave. If you asked me two days ago, I probably would have said "40% turnout and 80% to leave," but I wasn't expecting that level of violence from the police, either, so that 90% figure makes perfect sense.

Normally, I would urge everyone to respect the laws and follow procedure, even if it takes decades that way. But Spanish gov't has shown absolutely no indication that they value the will of the population. Out of fear of a vote that didn't go their way, they decided to stomp down against any attempt to hold an honest referendum, turning it into the mess it became. In my opinion, Catalonia has been put against the wall with no options, and Madrid lost all right to call this referendum illegitimate. If they wanted an honest vote, all they had to do is not get in the way. If they choose to commit violence instead, they deserve no further benefit of doubt. If Catalonia declares independence unilaterally at this point, they have my support, for what little it means.

One can say that majority still wants to stay, despite the vote outcome, but if you don't vote, you have no right to complain when the vote doesn't go your way. If they want to blame someone, they should blame Madrid for sending in the police force.
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#129

Posted 07 October 2017 - 12:57 PM

While I still believe Madrid isn't really dealing with this whole deal right, I am slowly beginning to understand the argument against the referendum. And not just that it's unconstitutional. In a sense, Catalonia would also be abandoning the rest of Spain, and don't they get any say in this?

Of the same token, Scotland abandoning the UK should also allow for Wales, England and Northern Ireland to have some say in the matter. They may not live in that geographical location, but are directly and indirectly reliant on it being part of the same jurisdiction they are part of. Same with Catalonia and Spain.

You can make the same argument against Brexit, and while on an ideological level, I would, the Lisbon Treaty is very clear on this, and Article 50 gives every member state its own right to leave the EU. Indeed, this was the same argument made during the American Civil War, that the South abandoning the Union would also be bad for the Northern state (even if them remaining would be worse for the Southern states[1]).

But even so, last Sunday's referendum proves that there simply are not enough supporters for independence in Catalonia. It had a 42% turnout, those against independence mostly boycotted the referendum, and still only yield 90% pro-independence votes. That would mean only about 38% of Catalans approve of independence. That's not enough.

Personally, I am still of the conviction that an independence referendum should require 2/3s of the vote. But I doubt many would like that. I still say, give Catalonia their referendum, and prove that the pro-independence parties in Catalonia is wrong, when they say Catalans want independence.

However, regardless of whether the President will actually declare independence on Monday (and a lot of prominent Catalan politicians are coming down hard against that decision), the damage is already done. Big companies are moving their headquarters out of Catalonia and into the rest of Spain due to the region's uncertain future.

So Catalonia may be a fifth of the Spanish economy right now, but with companies abandoning Catalonia, that size may dwindle over the coming months. Catalonia is rich, yes, but only as long as it stays stable.

[1] Note: Assuming, of course, that the Union would not retaliate by force to keep the Southern States in. The South was really hit economically hard both during the war and after the war during Reconstruction. And one may argue that the Southern States haven't really regained its economical equality with the Northern States (and California). Well, except, perhaps, Texas.

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#130

Posted 09 October 2017 - 08:53 AM

But even so, last Sunday's referendum proves that there simply are not enough supporters for independence in Catalonia. It had a 42% turnout, those against independence mostly boycotted the referendum, and still only yield 90% pro-independence votes. That would mean only about 38% of Catalans approve of independence. That's not enough.

Personally, I am still of the conviction that an independence referendum should require 2/3s of the vote. But I doubt many would like that. I still say, give Catalonia their referendum, and prove that the pro-independence parties in Catalonia is wrong, when they say Catalans want independence.

Ok, I have to object to that math. While it's absolutely clear that a very high fraction of pro-independence Catalans voted with very few of the pro-unity Catalans, you can't just multiply these percentages. By that logic, almost no election ever will have a winner. Fortunately, this is not how democratic process works. When voting on an issue, we don't ask for an actual absolute majority. If 60% voted and 60% of these voted for, we don't say that only 36% wanted the issue to pass. We extrapolate to general population and call it decidedly for. And if 40% who didn't vote disagree, well, they should have voted. This is how we reply to every single election. The rules were the same for everyone here. People who voted for independence or unity had to deal with the same hazards. Same availability. Same police brutality. If they didn't vote, they lost their right to complain about how the vote went.

Yes, we don't know how the other 58% would have voted with sufficient precision. With certainty, we can say that between 38% and 96% wanted to leave, based on 42% who voted. While it's beyond doubt closer to the former than the later, we just don't know the real number. We don't know what fraction of pro-independence Catalans chose not to risk clashes with police, or simply had no ability to travel to a polling location that was still working. It would only take 21% among these who didn't want to risk it or just didn't bother for an absolute majority. But what's more important is that it is the national government that denied us this knowledge by use of force.

In general, I would agree that this is a matter for all of Spain. That perhaps, even if majority of Catalans wanted to leave, it's not that simple. But the government elected by all of Spain chose not to give Catalonia even an opportunity to tally the votes properly. They acted to stomp down on that vote. In doing so, the rest of Spain has lost any grounds for talking about the good of Spain. This is critical distinction between good of all and tyranny by majority. When majority chooses to silence the minority, they lose the right to a democratic process that involves them. This is when the minority gains the right to act unilaterally.

This is also where this stops being an internal matter. Secession of the Southern States wasn't just a matter of them not wanting to be part of the Union. It was also the matter of them not wanting to be part of the Union where slavery is outlawed. By making slavery a central point of their declarations of independence and Confederate constitution, they have lost the right of keeping it an internal Southern matter. This is, again, the key distinction. Union wasn't just forcing the South to remain a part of the United States. It was also forcing South to treat people like people. Even if the process is still ongoing in some cases.

If Madrid did allow the referendum to go through, they could continue talking about it being a matter for all of Spain regardless of how that referendum went. And if they didn't use police force to try and shut down that referendum, putting dozens of people into hospitals, then EU could continue talking about it being internal Spanish matter without looking like a bunch of hypocrites. That is not what happened. Madrid has stepped over the line that distinguishes democracy for good of many and democracy for benefit of majority. If government of Catalonia chooses to declare independence now, the only right thing to do is support it. It is their decision now.
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#131

Posted 09 October 2017 - 09:56 AM Edited by Svip, 09 October 2017 - 09:56 AM.

You are taking a leap too far in my calculations of the percentages. All I am saying, we have not heard whether a majority of Catalans actually support independence. Opinion polls suggest they do not. And if the Catalan president uses this referendum as an argument for independence, he is basing it on a rather weak argument. It also seems weird that the law passed to call for the referendum did not have a turnout requirement, but I guess I know why, because they weren't anticipating even 50% voting.

And I've already said that I believe Spain have handled this crisis terribly. I don't know what's going to happen next, only time will tell. But I am confident that Madrid will react by attempting to suspend the Catalan government if they declare independence.

Not that know any country of significance that is going to support Catalan independence, even if - as you claim - it is the right thing to do. That's not usually how realpolitik works.

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#132

Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:20 AM

An illegal referendum, which this was, is deprived of its legal consequences by definition. Even if Madrid were to not have jackbooted their way through the referendum and just let it pass, its results would have been just as null and void as they are now. I reject the notion however that because they impeded the voting with force this somehow entitles the Catalan to international recognition, and the international community as such should support Catalonia after independence is declared. Not only does international law not work this way, in fact it's highly debatable whether the right (using the term very loosely here) to self-determination would even apply in the case of the Catalans in the first place; more pressingly, any such aforementioned international response would also severely impact Spain's external sovereignty and by extension their territorial integrity, which is a whole other can of worms I don't really see any point in opening.


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#133

Posted 09 October 2017 - 12:07 PM

All I am saying, we have not heard whether a majority of Catalans actually support independence. Opinion polls suggest they do not. And if the Catalan president uses this referendum as an argument for independence, he is basing it on a rather weak argument. It also seems weird that the law passed to call for the referendum did not have a turnout requirement, but I guess I know why, because they weren't anticipating even 50% voting.

40% is as good as 60% statistically. Both represent a sample and both allow for true percentage to disagree wildly from the voting outcome. We aren't talking about 10%. We really did see nearly half of the registered population having voted despite police attacking people trying to prevent it from happening. This is an amazingly good turnout given the circumstance.

And in any election, some people will care more than others. A higher fraction of people for or against an issue will turn out to vote. And when the split is close to 50/50, which it is according to all pols, the outcome of any vote can be different from true distribution in the population. Does that mean we should simply give up on voting? Or does it mean that we should accept results of a vote?

Again, consider an election with a 55% turnout and a 55% vote for a candidate despite opinion polls showing only 45% support. Do you throw that election out of the window? Or do you accept that people supporting the candidate cared more, call election successful, and move on?

Here we see a much greater division between the two groups. People who want to separate really want to leave. While people who want to stay are primarily voting for status quo. Or rather, not voting, as the outcome has shown. And you can't complain about results if you don't vote. That has to be a fundamental assumption, or voting just doesn't work period.

That's not usually how realpolitik works.


EU is afraid of separatism. They will act on that and fears over economy. That doesn't make it any less stupid. The way real politics works has gotten Europe into this mess to begin with. Turkey has full blown dictatorship. There is an ongoing civil war in Ukraine. Greece is in an economic death spiral. UK is leaving. And now they're happy just standing and watching as situation in Spain falls completely apart. Madrid isn't going to back out. They'll enact article 155. Barcelona is likely not to acknowledge it, at which point Madrid will have to send in troops. There will be blood. Right in the middle of Europe. Because real politics.

So yes, there is most definitely the right thing to do here. And yes, I don't expect anyone to do it.
 

An illegal referendum, which this was, is deprived of its legal consequences by definition.

Nobody's talking about legal consequences anymore. Spain has repeatedly demonstrated that they are not looking to allow any legal opportunity for Catalonia to leave. At that point, legality is an irrelevant concept. You might as well complain that United States legally has no standing as an independent country, since they could not have legally declared independence from British empire.

A revolution, by its very definition, is illegal. And yet, its outcome can and should be recognized in some cases. Had Spain officially allowed the referendum, as a non-binding vote to advise future development, we could discuss its legal standing. But since the vote was held in defiance of the government, and in fact, in defiance of law enforcement sent in to prevent it, it is a revolt. One with far greater popular support than we have seen in recent European history.

If and when Catalonia declares its independence, it will be illegal. But it will be done in accordance with democratic principles. I don't even have to touch self-determination here, because it's beyond the scope. Sovereignty of state over people can only exist with permission of the people, whether that permission is freely given or coerced. There simply is no other source of sovereignty. When state says they will not allow a secession vote, and it happens anyway, and majority votes to leave, said state no longer has sovereignty over that region. De facto. Past tense. Trying to re-establish sovereignty by force would be tyranny. But if you want more likes of Erdogan coming to power in Europe, you can go ahead and roll with that.
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#134

Posted 09 October 2017 - 01:20 PM

I am talking about legal consequences, because that's the only factor that is of practical relevance. We are a world of laws. The law of the land in Spain is the Spanish constitution, to which as a matter of fact the Catalans bound themselves in a 1978 referendum (on the indivisibility of the nation no less!), there are substantive requirements and procedural rules for referenda. If these steps are not taken and abided by the resulting vote is null and void, and pretty much tantamount to me declaring my place of residence a separate state in a referendum I drew up on roll of bog paper. 

 

Talk of democratic principles is nice and well, and it's a great bumper sticker but it in practice is a rather empty concept. Even if you assume 40% (according to the Catalan government) showing up in an illegal referendum without proper oversight, and an at best questionable voting process, is democratic, a notion I'd strongly dispute, in practice it means very little. No state, nor IGO is going to recognise Catalonia as an independent state and risk running foul of Spain, which prevents Catalonia from doing anything. Sure they can sing Les Mis' "Do you hear the people sing" in the streets of Barcelona and celebrate their "democratic" and "revolutionary" victory. But to the backdrop of economical woes, an exodus of industry, a paralysed administration and neighbouring Spain which will continue blocking any recognition of their statehood -- it's a nice fantasy but not much more.

 

 

When state says they will not allow a secession vote, and it happens anyway, and majority votes to leave, said state no longer has sovereignty over that region. De facto. Past tense. T

 

Define region. Definition majority. Define secession vote. According to these very loose principles I together with the residents of my street could secede from my country; I, representative for the territory of Raaviland organise a referendum on secession, the Dutch government says I'm a madman and that I do not have the competence to hold any referenda on secession. I ignore them and launch a referendum anyway -- what do you know 90% voted yes. Has the Dutch government now lost sovereignty over the region of Raaviland that comprises my street?


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#135

Posted 09 October 2017 - 01:52 PM

Define region. Definition majority. Define referendum. According to these very loose principles I together with the residents of my street could secede from my country; I, representative for the territory of Raaviland organise a referendum on secession, the Dutch government says I'm a madman and that I do not have the competence to hold any referenda on secession. I ignore them and launch a referendum anyway -- what do you know 90% voted yes. Has the Dutch government now lost sovereignty over the region of Raaviland that comprises my street?

Dutch government will have no trouble preventing you from having a referendum on your street if they say it will not happen. Spain has failed to do so. This is the loss of sovereignty. Not just the fact that vote happened, but that it happened despite federal government promising it will not happen and sending in police force to stop by force. You can be sovereign through force. It's a horrible way to hold a region of several million people, but Spain already failed to do even that.

If you did want to do this properly, though, any decent set of laws would allow your street to become an independent nation one step at a time. First, you'd need to gain autonomy from the city, then the whatever regional unit comes next, until you climb your way to level of separating from the country. By that point, of course, you'd have sufficient autonomy to have trade relations with your neighbors. In which case, I see no reason why your street can't be a city-block-state. Thing is, Catalonia has met all of the organizational requirement. And they have been trying to do this the right way for over a decade, including, finally, establishing an Independence Party local gov't.

So your example fails to meet both criteria. It fails to meet qualifications for a democratic process and to defend its autonomy against the law enforcement. But, of course, that's the purpose of a strawman.

No state, nor IGO is going to recognise Catalonia as an independent state and risk running foul of Spain, which prevents Catalonia from doing anything.

Are we talking about what is right, or what is going to happen? Because I've already said that what's going to happen is blood and violence. Another hot spot in Europe, because politicians hide their arrogance behind laws.

Hypothetically speaking, if Catalonia declares independence and Madrid doesn't enforce martial law, Catalonia will be de facto an independent state. Yes, yes, I've already seen EU members saying they won't recognize it and that Catalonia will be forced out of EU. Except, which is it? To force Catalonia out of EU and prevent it from trading with, say, France, you have to acknowledge that Catalonia is no longer part of Spain. If Catalonia is still part of Spain, then all the borders are still open. Catalonia still has open trade with EU via border with France and via Mediterranean sea. They will lose a lot of business, but if they simply start exporting their agricultural products to Europe directly, they'll be no worse than they are now. Trying to close that route would require military action. So Madrid will have to enact martial law in Catalonia. And we're back to blood and violence.

The only out if for EU to intervene, but fat chance of that. And the right thing now to do is still to acknowledge Catalonia's right to make its own decision at this point, regardless of whether it was the right thing before this mess started. But I'm across the pond. If you're happier with blood and violence, that's on you, then.
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#136

Posted 09 October 2017 - 10:24 PM Edited by SouthLand, 09 October 2017 - 10:25 PM.

There is NOT going to be blood or violence. This is NOT Donbass, Nagoro Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria.

 

People here go on strikes on Saturdays and don't attend on a work day because they fear that the day they miss of work, will not be included in their monthly paycheck. Do you think Separatists will risk their life and take arms if needed? You must be kidding me. Before the first shot is fired, they are all gone and on the other side of the border in France hiding.

 

This is the truth.

 

I mean take a look at Belfast where Republicans and Loyalists live in communities separated by a wall:

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

Meanwhile in Barcelona:

 

Spoiler


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#137

Posted 10 October 2017 - 12:48 AM

 

There is NOT going to be blood or violence. This is NOT Donbass, Nagoro Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria.

 

But none of these examples accurately match what's been happening in Catalonia, and can't really be used as a benchmark for comparison.

 

And blood and violence have ALREADY happened; or are you going to ignore the violence committed by the Guardia Civil against Catalans? 

 

 

People here go on strikes on Saturdays and don't attend on a work day because they fear that the day they miss of work, will not be included in their monthly paycheck. Do you think Separatists will risk their life and take arms if needed? You must be kidding me. Before the first shot is fired, they are all gone and on the other side of the border in France hiding.

 

Yet a good deal of them did go to the polling stations despite threat and violence by the Guardia Civil. So....

 

 

I mean take a look at Belfast where Republicans and Loyalists live in communities separated by a wall:

 

Again an irrelevant comparison, as what happened in Ireland took decades to develop in the current state of affairs. 


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#138

Posted 10 October 2017 - 04:44 AM

People here go on strikes on Saturdays and don't attend on a work day because they fear that the day they miss of work, will not be included in their monthly paycheck. Do you think Separatists will risk their life and take arms if needed? You must be kidding me. Before the first shot is fired, they are all gone and on the other side of the border in France hiding.

That's exactly what Rajoy said about the referendum. That it will not happen, because it is illegal, and he sent in the Guardia. Over two million voted despite hundreds ending up in hospitals for trying. Catalans are not seeking confrontation, and even the most extreme of them have been exceptionally peaceful, but if you think they'll simply disperse quietly after Rajoy orders martial law, you are just as delusional as he is. A full out civil war is unlikely, sure. But Donbas wasn't where it started for Ukraine, either. It started in Kyiv on Maidan, where over a hundred civilians were shot dead by the Ukraine's police who also thought that crowds will disperse as soon as first shots are fired. Their government did not survive such an event. Donbas happened later, when Russia capitalized on failure of Ukrainian government.

I recommend you take a long hard look at what happened in other countries, even the ones you list in your example. Not just the fallout, but how it began. Then see how Spain's government is repeating all the same exact blunders.

Oh, and if we're on the topic of meanwhile in Barcelona:
Spoiler


See? I can give footage without context and imply that broad conclusions should be drawn from it as well.

You can make up whatever stories that make you feel comfortable, but the two million separatists actually went to the polls and voted, despite threat from the government. It's the three million of unionists who were too afraid to make it to the polls. If you really need to know which side is going to hide and stay quiet when shots are fired, you have your answer. And if you think things will go back to normal after a few hundred people are shot dead by Spanish soldiers as they try to bring the region under control, you've learned absolutely nothing from Ukraine, Moldova, or Georgia. Their problems started way before Russians got involved, when their governments thought they can handle the separatists by sending in a few thousand troops.
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#139

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:17 PM

I'm glad to learn VP will be running again. I'm confident, and hopeful that RF can keep the strong, smart leader they have. 


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#140

Posted 08 December 2017 - 05:14 AM

Oh, I am certain Putin will win re-election in 2018. But him running for re-election isn't exactly interesting. The reverse would have been.
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#141

Posted 08 December 2017 - 04:14 PM

Considering that the RF has significant influence over a number of states in the EU as well as EU hopefuls, I'd suggest you take an interest.

Even Americans should take an interest. If the accusations are true and Putin did in fact have a hand in 2016, then his reelection ensures that he'll be in control during the American elections in 2018 and 2020.

Given the concentrated power structure, whoever leads the RF (and I'm sure it will continue to be VP) is the single most powerful individual in the world. It's worth thinking about.

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#142

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:34 PM

I'm glad to learn VP will be running again. I'm confident, and hopeful that RF can keep the strong, smart leader they have. 

you are stupendously misinformed.

 

https://freedomhouse...rld/2017/russia

 

it's also pretty cute how you assume they have "elections" at all.

everyone already knows that if they don't vote for Putin they'll wind up in prison. were you born yesterday or do you feign ignorance for sport? Russia has a terrible record on human rights and civil liberties but you've drank and swallowed the strongman rhetoric like so many cups of poisoned Koolaid...


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#143

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:40 PM Edited by Chiari, 08 December 2017 - 08:43 PM.

 

I'm glad to learn VP will be running again. I'm confident, and hopeful that RF can keep the strong, smart leader they have. 

you are stupendously misinformed.

 

https://freedomhouse...rld/2017/russia

 

it's also pretty cute how you assume they have "elections" at all.

everyone already knows that if they don't vote for Putin they'll wind up in prison. were you born yesterday or do you feign ignorance for sport? Russia has a terrible record on human rights and civil liberties but you've drank and swallowed the strongman rhetoric like so many cups of poisoned Koolaid...

 

 

Not sure how I'm misinformed; I said that VP was running again- he is. I said that their power structure was concentrated- it is. Your link confers it. So maybe don't respond to me again you dumb piece of sh*t. All you did here was disagree with me and link a site that agrees with me.

 

E: I also didn't use the word election at any point, so you're stupendously awful at reading. I am acutely aware of how the semi-autocratic government of the Russian Federation operates. I wholeheartedly approve of it.


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#144

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:43 PM

Trump loves Putin because Trump wishes he had that kind of corrupt and absolute power.

you think Putin is "strong and smart." we're talking about the guy who imprisons journalists and murders his political rivals.

 

the only "the dumb piece of sh/t"  here is talking to himself in the mirror.

go on, tell us more about how strong and smart your dear leader is.


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#145

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:51 PM

Of course, I take an interest in Putin and Russia. But I don't consider it particularly interesting that he is running again. We all knew that he would, and we all know that he will win. Of all the interesting things Putin actually does, this must amount to one of the least interesting of them.

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#146

Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:06 PM

 we're talking about the guy who imprisons journalists and murders his political rivals.

 

Objectively speaking, this is a tactic that has proven to be effective... assuming that it's even true. 

 

Of course, I take an interest in Putin and Russia. But I don't consider it particularly interesting that he is running again. We all knew that he would, and we all know that he will win. Of all the interesting things Putin actually does, this must amount to one of the least interesting of them.

 

I suppose this is a fair point. 


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#147

Posted 12 December 2017 - 11:11 AM

There is NOT going to be blood or violence. This is NOT Donbass, Nagoro Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria.

 

People here go on strikes on Saturdays and don't attend on a work day because they fear that the day they miss of work, will not be included in their monthly paycheck. Do you think Separatists will risk their life and take arms if needed? You must be kidding me. Before the first shot is fired, they are all gone and on the other side of the border in France hiding.

 

This is the truth.

 

I mean take a look at Belfast where Republicans and Loyalists live in communities separated by a wall:

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

Meanwhile in Barcelona:

 

Spoiler

Not shure how old you are, but Spain was not always a pecefull place and I am not tallking about spanish civil war just about 40 years ago Spain was led by a fashistic dictator and ETA was still present till some years ago. I personally would not completly exclude a posibility of some kind of armed conflict in Spain.


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#148

Posted 3 weeks ago Edited by Argonaut, 3 weeks ago.

"Waning support puts Merkel’s future in doubt"

 

Interesting update to Germany's situation, yet insofar as the headline targets "Merkel" I couldn't call this the "biggest political crisis since late 1940s", not that I would anyway.

 

A couple of polls and surveys to keep in mind:

 

88aGrf.png

 

 

0wh8pq.png

 

The first graph can show increasing voter impatience with Merkel's handling situation rather than a clear growth in hostility to her, which I feel needs greater polling separately. I don't deny the election result was the greatest method of testing this, but with coalition talks going much better in October you can't discount voters being fickle either.

 

From a view across the channel, one of the greatest strengths for her party is the extent to which Merkel has personified the crisis and hence taken responsibility for it, allowing the rest of her party to get away untarnished. As the article states, the party is not missing a younger generation, especially of more Conservative leanings that could negotiate with the FDP if that situation is even reached. If the expectations of long-lasting political leaders has been dented, then the chances for good governance are still readily available, which I don't think constitutes an overwhelming political crisis worse than Brexit. Neither do I see any leverage potential in this for the UK's Brexit negotiations, considering how the issue hardly surfaced in the election campaign + the energy of France, strength of the negotiating team separate from German politics etc. Many reasons that could be elaborated on.


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#149

Posted 2 weeks ago

"Waning support puts Merkel’s future in doubt"

 

Interesting update to Germany's situation, yet insofar as the headline targets "Merkel" I couldn't call this the "biggest political crisis since late 1940s", not that I would anyway.

 

A couple of polls and surveys to keep in mind:

 

88aGrf.png

 

 

0wh8pq.png

 

The first graph can show increasing voter impatience with Merkel's handling situation rather than a clear growth in hostility to her, which I feel needs greater polling separately. I don't deny the election result was the greatest method of testing this, but with coalition talks going much better in October you can't discount voters being fickle either.

 

From a view across the channel, one of the greatest strengths for her party is the extent to which Merkel has personified the crisis and hence taken responsibility for it, allowing the rest of her party to get away untarnished. As the article states, the party is not missing a younger generation, especially of more Conservative leanings that could negotiate with the FDP if that situation is even reached. If the expectations of long-lasting political leaders has been dented, then the chances for good governance are still readily available, which I don't think constitutes an overwhelming political crisis worse than Brexit. Neither do I see any leverage potential in this for the UK's Brexit negotiations, considering how the issue hardly surfaced in the election campaign + the energy of France, strength of the negotiating team separate from German politics etc. Many reasons that could be elaborated on.

A lot of people in germany are sick of merkel, but she was smart enough to get rid of any alternative for her.





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