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Melchior
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#2191

Posted 09 June 2017 - 06:56 AM Edited by Melchior, 09 June 2017 - 06:57 AM.

Who would have thought it? 

f*cking who indeed.


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#2192

Posted 09 June 2017 - 07:02 AM

I really didn't want to vote for Labour, but my conscience wouldn't allow me to vote any other way.

This is perhaps the best result I could have reasonably hoped for - as I knew they wouldn't win.

But maybe now, at least, we can avoid the worst excesses of Conservative rule?


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#2193

Posted 09 June 2017 - 07:49 AM Edited by Svip, 09 June 2017 - 07:52 AM.

Who would have thought it?

f*cking who indeed.


538, perhaps? Their third scenario fits this result pretty accurately. And note that they gave all three scenarios equal weight, believing that the betting markets' chances of 15% for Hung Parliament was way too low.

I personally thought the polls were too favourable to the Tories, because I thought the pollsters were overcompensating for the Shy Tory factor. But I must admit, I did expect a majority, but a tiny one.

Melchior
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#2194

Posted 09 June 2017 - 08:20 AM

 

 

Who would have thought it?

f*cking who indeed.

 


538, perhaps? Their third scenario fits this result pretty accurately. And note that they gave all three scenarios equal weight, believing that the betting markets' chances of 15% for Hung Parliament was way too low.

I personally thought the polls were too favourable to the Tories, because I thought the pollsters were overcompensating for the Shy Tory factor. But I must admit, I did expect a majority, but a tiny one.

 

nah I was being a smug f*ck about my being vindicated. Under Corbyn, the party is in fighting shape, and the consensus that the Tories weren't rhetorically vulnerable to social democrats now seems ridiculous. The only way the Tories could have won in a landslide is if the coup attempts against Corbyn were successful. Also, quelle suprise, the lib dems are still irrelevant. 

 

Scotland was a surprise, but it's still Scotland. Tories or libdems expecting consistent support from Scotland are kidding themselves. The biggest threat to the SNP is a Labour government which could undermine the grievances that make them popular.  


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#2195

Posted 09 June 2017 - 09:00 AM

Which is probably why Corbyn's suggestion of forming a coalition between Labour and SNP (and others) might be hard to get SNP on board, because that could be their own death sentence. SNP's main opponent in Scottish elections is Labour.

In a scenario where Labour forms a minority government with SNP and LibDems, SNP is going to be hard pressed to argue why one should vote SNP rather than Labour.

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#2196

Posted 09 June 2017 - 09:15 AM

Looks like Eeyore has managed to get the DUP on board and she's off to see Brenda at lunchtime....

One wonders what concessions she will be forced into?

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#2197

Posted 09 June 2017 - 09:36 AM Edited by Melchior, 09 June 2017 - 09:43 AM.

Which is probably why Corbyn's suggestion of forming a coalition between Labour and SNP (and others) might be hard to get SNP on board, because that could be their own death sentence. SNP's main opponent in Scottish elections is Labour.

In a scenario where Labour forms a minority government with SNP and LibDems, SNP is going to be hard pressed to argue why one should vote SNP rather than Labour.

Labour is honestly more likely to get the politicians themselves rather than the seats. They won't be able to get the SNP in a position where they can undermine them, but if they're smart and incredibly flexible they could absorb the SNP, but nobody in government is that cunning these days. 

 

But the SNP doesn't just run on social democracy, what convinces people to support them and independence is their promise to treat the Scottish economy as an elaborate project rather than as a sack of resources to be extracted. They aren't promising to expand the welfare state so much as set up funny economic policies that help small countries develop, think Norway. I don't know how you'd keep Scotland in the UK but allow for exceptional economic policy, but if they can they'd find a way back to relevance in Scotland. 


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#2198

Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:38 AM

A pretty f*cking great result for Corbyn despite being painted by various shamelessly partisan media outlets as a 'terrorist apologist', 'friend of terrorism', 'comrade Corbyn' and other such terms of endearment.

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EmSixTeen
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#2199

Posted 09 June 2017 - 10:43 AM

A pretty f*cking great result for Corbyn despite being painted by various shamelessly partisan media outlets as a 'terrorist apologist', 'friend of terrorism', 'comrade Corbyn' and other such terms of endearment.

I wanted Corbyn to win this election, but this angle isn't entirely false. https://twitter.com/...498342785425408

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#2200

Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:15 AM

Yeah, I'm pretty pleased with this outcome all things considered. A hung Parliament, a huge blow to the Conservative leadership and an even bigger one to aggressive Euroscepticism is a win in my book, especially given the cakewalk that was predicted.

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#2201

Posted 09 June 2017 - 01:31 PM

Couldn't be much more disappointed personally. May will cling to power, held aloft by the worst party in Britain solely because Sinn Fein don't take their seats.


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#2202

Posted 09 June 2017 - 02:22 PM

Absolutely sh*ter of a result. May the terrorist enabler and sympathiser confirms fears by setting up shop with homophobic climate change denying pro-life terrorists. Amazing, really. 

 

£130million of tax money to have it confirmed that everyone hates her, and she's going to stay on. She's a f*cking c*nt. 


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#2203

Posted 09 June 2017 - 03:12 PM

I wanted Corbyn to win this election, but this angle isn't entirely false. https://twitter.com/...498342785425408

 

I was more referring to the comments made by various tabloids in the wake of the recent attacks, which were for the most part completely baseless rabble-rousing. 

 

On another note. Not an expert on the nuances of NI politics - but May getting in bed with the DUP, wouldn't that essentially abdicate the government from their position of neutrality; putting at risk the peace process and stability in Northern Ireland? 


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#2204

Posted 09 June 2017 - 03:13 PM

Absolutely sh*ter of a result. May the terrorist enabler and sympathiser confirms fears by setting up shop with homophobic climate change denying pro-life terrorists. Amazing, really. 

 

£130million of tax money to have it confirmed that everyone hates her, and she's going to stay on. She's a f*cking c*nt. 

 

General consensus is she'll be shuffling off during the impending summer recess and a replacement will be found by Conference Season.... 

 

Any suggestions for new PM from the Tory sh*tshower?  A mate of mine suggested Amber Rudd, but with such a marginal majority?


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#2205

Posted 09 June 2017 - 04:24 PM

When you just get rid of UKIP and then you get a DUP coalition  :(

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#2206

Posted 09 June 2017 - 04:31 PM Edited by Typhus, 09 June 2017 - 04:32 PM.

 

Absolutely sh*ter of a result. May the terrorist enabler and sympathiser confirms fears by setting up shop with homophobic climate change denying pro-life terrorists. Amazing, really. 

 

£130million of tax money to have it confirmed that everyone hates her, and she's going to stay on. She's a f*cking c*nt. 

 

General consensus is she'll be shuffling off during the impending summer recess and a replacement will be found by Conference Season.... 

 

Any suggestions for new PM from the Tory sh*tshower?  A mate of mine suggested Amber Rudd, but with such a marginal majority?

 

Boris Johnson has been shoving his fat f*cking face in front of every camera he can find during this whole election.

I think he's still angling for the big job, himself. Whether or not anyone will vote for him is another matter, but he'll probably put himself forward.


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#2207

Posted 09 June 2017 - 06:28 PM Edited by Uncle Sikee Atric, 09 June 2017 - 06:50 PM.

I do think this is rather glaring :
 
18952567_1708896479404424_42513185550361
 
The DUP is a terrible group to have to be backed up by.  Doubly so because Arlene Foster is still mired in the Renewable Heat Scandal that caused the dissolution of the N.I. Assembly and the break down of power-sharing in the Northern Irish Assembly.  Now she's leading the small group propping up the UK Government, at least for the short term as Brexit gets started in the chambers of Brussels, while Sinn Fein refuse to work with them in their own local duties!

 

Add to that the stupidity and choices of the DUP in some of their policies and you almost wish for a few UKIPPers to replace them, at least you know what you're getting with those goose-stepping pricks, with the DUP, you never know how they'll react until it's too late....

 

Notice as well that as Eeyore is reforming her cabinet there's no change in the senior roles.  Not only does she need those big names to help surround her and protect her shattered reputation, it's fairly obvious that this is only short term, anything longer and changes would have happened in the upper ranks.  Expect a brutal bun fight for the top job in the summer, but the names are not appealing....  BoJo is too unpredictable, Gove is a backstabbing slimeball, Jeremy Hunt is about as popular as a suicide bomber, Amber Rudd is possible but her majority of about 350 doesn't make her secure in the slightest, so it's looking like a lower rank backbencher might be a better choice.  Look for movements from individuals like Sajid Javid in the coming weeks.


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#2208

Posted 09 June 2017 - 09:48 PM

Latest YouGov poll:

 

Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (-1) LAB: 39% (+3) LDEM: 7% (-2) UKIP: 4% (-) (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

 

Labour's highest percentage since July 2014.

 

Time to start talking about hung parliaments? Or, if that's too adventurous, can still we really expect 100% expect this to be the wipeout it was originally meant to be?

*dances to the vengaboys*

 

forza corbyn etc. etc. 


Argonaut
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#2209

Posted 09 June 2017 - 11:46 PM Edited by Argonaut, 09 June 2017 - 11:52 PM.

..Add to the Renewable Heat Scandal the dodgy funding of what amounts to paramilitary fronts and the point of Labour being the coalition of chaos w/ terrorist sympathies crumbles. This has to influence the government's neutrality if they are to gain their support, whether inadvertently or not, although I'd sooner think another general election would be called / Tory ministers have it out for May before the peace process is given a valid threat. I would not be surprised if affairs in the next Parliament are decided 'in Norther Ireland' as all ten DUP MPs will be needed to pass contentious issues + existing Stormont intractability over the border poll, Irish language act, same sex marriage etc they'd be eager to deal with. It really is a poor state of a coalition that contrasts a large amount with Conservative policy just to tip them over the mark, juxtaposing May's comments about the 'nasty party', the progress of the party's views over the last ten years, coalition of chaos etc etc... take your pick. I'm not seeing this lasting.

 

 

Other than that, a pretty decent outcome. I didn't want either party and got exactly that + Tories given a kick up the backside without even coming as a result of something in Parliament. A "free" plus.


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#2210

Posted 10 June 2017 - 08:38 PM Edited by Finite, 10 June 2017 - 08:49 PM.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...n-2017-40236152

And a vote of no confidence by about Tuesday morning.

Every single Tory voter must feel extremely embarrassed here. The Tories have spent so long trying to shed the image that they're a bunch of racist, xenophobic, homophobic sh*theads. I mean that still applied to quite a lot of them, and they still use a lot of the dog-whistle language to appeal to those demographics, but they're not very open about it too much any more. And now they're in bed and beholden to people who are all of those things combined and multiplied, and are quite proud of the fact.

It's delicious.

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#2211

Posted 10 June 2017 - 09:05 PM

And a vote of no confidence by about Tuesday morning.


Not entirely true....

If you look at the original story, the vote of no confidence would have come if Eeyore had not removed her two chief advisors, but they have both resigned to protect their former boss, one of the few gestures from those around Eeyore that showed some loyalty and saved a few shreds of her destroyed reputation.  The vultures seem to be gathering around the corpse of the leadership as none of the party heavy hitters are in sight, not appearing in the media and ducking all questions.  How long before they start the push for new leadership? 

 

The DUP hold all the cards as of now, but things are still not set in stone and the anger from the other Northern Irish parties is only going to gather and increase the pressure on them, no matter how much they try and dress it up!   Time really will tell how long this arrangement can last before the DUP lose all face and appear as tarnished as the Tories currently do. 

 

I really cannot see this setup going beyond Christmas really, unless the DUP actually start looking at their own issues in Belfast and force Arlene Phillips to answers the many questions she has to over that scheme.  The Power Sharing Executive must be reformed soon, as under this minority government they can bypass Belfast and get laws passed direct from London!  A handy way to ignore their 'supposed allies' within Sinn Fein.


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#2212

Posted 14 June 2017 - 05:50 PM Edited by Finite, 14 June 2017 - 05:56 PM.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-40281300

Any idea who might succeed him as leader?

E: Jo Swinson apparently

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#2213

Posted 14 June 2017 - 08:57 PM

Jo Swinson and Vince Cable have got to be up there.

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#2214

Posted 14 June 2017 - 08:59 PM Edited by Uncle Sikee Atric, 14 June 2017 - 09:00 PM.

Swinson and Cable would be my shout too....

 

There's just not enough MP's to see any other dark horses sneaking in.


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#2215

Posted 14 June 2017 - 10:08 PM

Cable was my initial suspect to replace Farron. I still don't understand the timing of Farron's announcement - given the likely coalition appeared to suspend their own announcement following what happened in London - nor did I expect it. Shame Krankie won't deliver her own resignation as party leader.

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#2216

Posted 15 June 2017 - 03:46 PM Edited by Finite, 15 June 2017 - 03:49 PM.

https://yougov.co.uk...-campaign-corb/

The ways the lines go on that graph are just insane.

How the strong stables have turned.

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#2217

Posted 18 June 2017 - 10:44 AM Edited by Uncle Sikee Atric, 18 June 2017 - 10:46 AM.

It looks like the grassroots support of the party is being knocked away as well....

 

_96534076_sundaytimes.jpg

 

Given the lackluster response to the Grenfell Tower fire and Eeyore's inability to meet people affected (it took three different visits to actually meet some of the survivors and even then it was in Downing Street, rather than in West London and in front of the hostile crowds that want answers and real help), it looks like the last vestiges of support for her are gone.  

 

This week the Queen's Speech is on Wednesday (when Brenda is most likely going to be at Royal Ascot, so it could well be the Lord Chancellor delivering it) and round one of the Brexit talks are actually underway Monday.  By next weekend, Eeyore has probably done what she needed to get started and might well be looking at shuffling off to allow a new leader to come in, whoever that might be? 

 

I'm still flummoxed as to who would actually be willing to be PM, Brexit has already poisoned the legacy of two PM's and the third incumbent could well only be in Number 10 for months, if the DUP support fizzles out as quickly as many suspect it will.  The chaos in Westminster won't be going away for a while yet and we could well be back at the polls in the Autumn....

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#2218

Posted 19 June 2017 - 06:37 AM Edited by Street Mix, 19 June 2017 - 06:46 AM.

https://www.facebook...269201526510645

 

MFA went nuts. "Private visit", yeah, sure......

 

I thought "officials" from that terrorist fake state were banned from entering the civilized world.


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#2219

Posted 23 June 2017 - 02:41 PM

http://www.independe...s-a7803911.html

This is the first time a Labour leader has polled ahead of the Conservatives on this question since Blair, over 10 years ago.

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#2220

Posted 24 June 2017 - 12:53 PM Edited by Argonaut, 24 June 2017 - 12:55 PM.

I mean, in the current circumstances of a coalition (barely that) of chaos, it's not really unexpected is it? If anything, he should be doing better because I don't think any opposition leader has had it as good as this for a while. I would be wary of people who take this as Corbyn being the "Prime Minister in waiting" as it's clear this isn't the case and whatever majority he would have would probably be as small and and lacking in consensus as the previous three governments (inc. this one). 





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