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So I finally get how the betting works now.

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Kracus
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#1

Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:01 PM

So last night I was playing online trying to rank up my girlfriends character cause I'm building her garage since she doesn't play often. To do this, I had to start racing so I've been getting put in low level rooms. I'm getting close to level 200 at this point so being in a level 1 - 20 room is pretty amusing. I noticed one individual kept betting 2500$ while others were throwing in 500 - 1000. My odd's weren't looking very profitable until I put a cheeky 100$ bet.

 

Boom my odds jumped from 2/1 to 30/1. So I come to realize that your odds are entirely based on how much money is funded by other players in the race and that if you want to make money you probably want to be the one that bets the least. If I raised my bet to 200 my odds would change from 30/1 to 15/1 essentially telling me that I either get 3000$ in winnings if I bet 100$ OR I could get 15x 200$ which you guessed it is the same ammount, 3k.

 

Thus I quickly realized the two people betting 2.5k and 800$ were funding the 3k I was going to win with my 100$ bet.

 

 

What I get from this is the following.

 

When you want to bet, what you're doing is saying I'll bet x amount that I can beat you if you put up amount y. Depending on how confident you are you can ultimately put up 2500$ for people to win off you and you get whatever amount they'll put up. If everyone was comunicating about these things you might get more realistic figures like I'll bet 200$ to  your 100$ that I can beat you. This makes more sense and isn't as one sided but since people don't seem to have a freaking clue how to bet people are just throwing 2.5k around like it's going to win them more when it isn't. Take advantage of those people by betting 100$ and you'll get an amazing return on your cash.

 

What you can also do is throw 100$ on every other racer.

 

Lets say you have 4 racers, one guy bets 2500$ and you throw 100 on yourself and the other 2 racers. You spent 300$ but you now have 3 chances to win and if any of the 3  you put cash on wins then you'll get roughly 2500$ for your 300$ investment. Good deal.

 

However once people start noticing what you're doing, which is what happened to me last night. EVERYONE in the room will start throwing huge bets on you. This will destroy your odds and from what I can tell you're just throwing money away. It was a 4 player room and all 3 players had bet big on me since I hadn't lost a race in roughly 10 races in a row but on that particular race I had a bit of bad luck and was in 2nd. I swear I'm not making this up the guy in 1st stopped at the finish line to let me pass lol. 

 

Either way it didn't work out for them, I don't know how much money they had put on me individually but I had roughly 6k of bets on myself placed by others and they only got 1k each so they had to have lost cash somewhere but them putting so much on my had bumped my odds to something stupid like 5/9.

 

Anyone else wanna chime in on stuff they've noticed with the betting system?

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gnad.1992
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#2

Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:06 PM

I used to bet a lot when I had billions.

 

but now... 

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Kracus
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#3

Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:06 PM

You can still bet a lot! Just smarter now.


Ankarstrom
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#4

Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:19 PM Edited by Ankarstrom, 04 February 2014 - 01:20 PM.

Thanks, great observations.

 

I'm one of them who always throw in $2500 (on myself most of the time) and whenever possible another $100 on a random just to enable betting, LOL. Usually I'm in a 2 player race and I'm only allowed to put one bet. If I win I seem to end up with what I put in, i.e. I'm the only one putting bets. The reason I've been constantly betting on myself is to one day get the platinum Hustler(?) award and unlock the black jack tattoo.


mo-seph
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#5

Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:23 PM

You can still bet a lot! Just smarter now.

 

 

always bet smart...

 

i think it was Luap.Yllier who orignally noted this (racing tips thread) the betting odds initally are based on your w/l ratio.

 

but for those of us in the UK where betting is majoritively legal its understood that the bets placed also augment the odds

 

so if the 2nd favourite has larger sums placed ont hem, their odds will drop, meaning they may become the "favourite" at shorter odds and the previous "favourite" (who is still just as likely to win) gets better odds increasing payouts for those who bet on them

 

its a way that bookies use to manage the payouts and mitigate risk

 

this is exactly what happened with you, as your inital odds were based on your performance, but then changed by the implications of the other bets placed.... its in your favour to win against those who bet big, because it lengthens your odds... seemingly its repodning to a cocky show of strength in that someone bets 2.5k thinking they have it in the bag, so if you beat them its "against the odds" hence a bigger ratio....

 

 

out of interest which odds format do you use?? i presume the x/y style..

 

i used to use the x/y style that you do, but then changed to decimal.. it actually makes it much easier to understand the changes....

 

it also makes it more obvious where you are better placed to spread bet (i.e betting on multiple parties)... for example i was in a rom of three recently, my odds were 1.80, another guy (b) was 2.4 and another © 8.0 so i placed my bets as $300 on me, and $200 on the 8.0 guy... his odds dropped to around 4.5, mine remained at around 1.8 and the 2.4 dropped to 2..

 

so in that circumstance if i win, my payout is 1.8 x 300 = 540, if b wins i get 0 and if c wins i get 200 x 4.5 = 900... as it goes he did actually win, i came out at $400 up, so i mitigated the risk of my 300 on myself, through spreading the bet... the only way i could lose was if b won the race... as me winning = 540 (+$40) if b wins i lose 500 (the stake) and if c won (which he did) i get 900 - 500 (the stake)

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Kracus
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#6

Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:41 PM

I actually didn't know there was a way to change the way the odds were displayed. I'll be looking into changing mine to decimal tonight then.


Juanfartez
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#7

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:09 PM

 

You can still bet a lot! Just smarter now.

 

 

always bet smart...

 

i think it was Luap.Yllier who orignally noted this (racing tips thread) the betting odds initally are based on your w/l ratio.

 

but for those of us in the UK where betting is majoritively legal its understood that the bets placed also augment the odds

 

so if the 2nd favourite has larger sums placed ont hem, their odds will drop, meaning they may become the "favourite" at shorter odds and the previous "favourite" (who is still just as likely to win) gets better odds increasing payouts for those who bet on them

 

its a way that bookies use to manage the payouts and mitigate risk

 

this is exactly what happened with you, as your inital odds were based on your performance, but then changed by the implications of the other bets placed.... its in your favour to win against those who bet big, because it lengthens your odds... seemingly its repodning to a cocky show of strength in that someone bets 2.5k thinking they have it in the bag, so if you beat them its "against the odds" hence a bigger ratio....

 

 

out of interest which odds format do you use?? i presume the x/y style..

 

i used to use the x/y style that you do, but then changed to decimal.. it actually makes it much easier to understand the changes....

 

it also makes it more obvious where you are better placed to spread bet (i.e betting on multiple parties)... for example i was in a rom of three recently, my odds were 1.80, another guy (b) was 2.4 and another © 8.0 so i placed my bets as $300 on me, and $200 on the 8.0 guy... his odds dropped to around 4.5, mine remained at around 1.8 and the 2.4 dropped to 2..

 

so in that circumstance if i win, my payout is 1.8 x 300 = 540, if b wins i get 0 and if c wins i get 200 x 4.5 = 900... as it goes he did actually win, i came out at $400 up, so i mitigated the risk of my 300 on myself, through spreading the bet... the only way i could lose was if b won the race... as me winning = 540 (+$40) if b wins i lose 500 (the stake) and if c won (which he did) i get 900 - 500 (the stake)

 

And when you got your six pieces, you gotta get rid of them, because it's no good leaving it in the deep freeze for your mum to discover, now is it? Then I hear the best thing to do is feed them to pigs. You got to starve the pigs for a few days, then the sight of a chopped-up body will look like curry to a pisshead. You gotta shave the heads of your victims, and pull the teeth out for the sake of the piggies' digestion. You could do this afterwards, of course, but you don't want to go sievin' through pig sh*t, now do you? They will go through bone like butter. You need at least sixteen pigs to finish the job in one sitting, so be wary of any man who keeps a pig farm. They will go through a body that weighs 200 pounds in about eight minutes. That means that a single pig can consume two pounds of uncooked flesh every minute. Hence the expression, "as greedy as a pig".

081009brit_bricktop.jpg

 

Thank you Brick Top. I never understood the betting odds. :monocle:


mo-seph
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#8

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:13 PM

I actually didn't know there was a way to change the way the odds were displayed. I'll be looking into changing mine to decimal tonight then.

 

 

yea its one of the adjustable settings in the options menu IIRC, im not at my console to double check the exact path but it should be pretty simple to find now you know its there, i had the same with the "crew rank" didnt realise for 2 months it was a configurable option to switch from "default" to "crew" lol.... amazing what were still learning about this game.

 

 but trust me mate its a lot easier than trying to figure out if a 5/2 is more than an 13/5 (which is 3.5 and 3.6 respectively in decimals)  its just simple n straight forward, the bigger the decimal, the bigger the odds, less chance of winning but more payout....

 

with your permission i might quote some of your post into the [GTAO] Racing Tips and Tricks Guide pinned topic as it does raise some valid and worthy points :) (or if you just want to post it in there yourself feel free, but i think this is worthy of being in the OP as-well in the "Betting" section)  Ill also backlink to this thread as the discussion adds a bit more context.


Kracus
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#9

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:16 PM

Yeah go ahead and quote me all you like. :)


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#10

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:19 PM

I found this useful ... Since i have no clue how betting actually worked.  I was a $2500 thrower..lol


Kracus
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#11

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:27 PM

Yeah now you can watch for those people and take advantage when you do. The only problem is when people start seeing you win a lot of bets they'll start betting on you since you always seem to make money. This will drive your odds down and you essentially don't win money.

 

One example last night, I had something like 8/1 odds with a 100$ bet. I kept upping the bet amount by 100$ until I got to a 400$ bet. At 400 my odds changed to evens. With an evens odd I won the race and I won 400$ essentially I just won the money I had bet so I won nothing from what I can tell. If i'd kept betting I suspect my odds would have shot above EVENS thus resulting in my win being in a negative balance like 350$ of my original 400 thus making me 50$ in the hole (that's just a guess I don't know this for sure yet) but it's just how it looks to me so far.

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Zwenkwiel
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#12

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:31 PM

i suck at math so I still don't get it

but shouldn't a bigger bet give you more money?

is this just their way of capping the profit you can make with betting

 

cuz if they'd just pool all the bets and give it to the winner or something like that you could make way more money


lRushdown
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#13

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:47 PM Edited by lRushdown, 04 February 2014 - 02:48 PM.

Yeah now you can watch for those people and take advantage when you do. The only problem is when people start seeing you win a lot of bets they'll start betting on you since you always seem to make money. This will drive your odds down and you essentially don't win money.

 

One example last night, I had something like 8/1 odds with a 100$ bet. I kept upping the bet amount by 100$ until I got to a 400$ bet. At 400 my odds changed to evens. With an evens odd I won the race and I won 400$ essentially I just won the money I had bet so I won nothing from what I can tell. If i'd kept betting I suspect my odds would have shot above EVENS thus resulting in my win being in a negative balance like 350$ of my original 400 thus making me 50$ in the hole (that's just a guess I don't know this for sure yet) but it's just how it looks to me so far.

 

Evens means that every dollar you bet pays back one dollar.  So if you bet $400 at Evens and you win, you make $400 profit (not just your original $400 back).  If you bet $2500 on yourself and there's a $100 bet on another person, you'll often get 2/5 odds on yourself.  Meaning that you profit $2 for every $5 that you bet.  If you win, you'll profit $1000.

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mo-seph
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#14

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:51 PM Edited by mo-seph, 04 February 2014 - 02:49 PM.

Yeah now you can watch for those people and take advantage when you do. The only problem is when people start seeing you win a lot of bets they'll start betting on you since you always seem to make money. This will drive your odds down and you essentially don't win money.

 

One example last night, I had something like 8/1 odds with a 100$ bet. I kept upping the bet amount by 100$ until I got to a 400$ bet. At 400 my odds changed to evens. With an evens odd I won the race and I won 400$ essentially I just won the money I had bet so I won nothing from what I can tell. If i'd kept betting I suspect my odds would have shot above EVENS thus resulting in my win being in a negative balance like 350$ of my original 400 thus making me 50$ in the hole (that's just a guess I don't know this for sure yet) but it's just how it looks to me so far.

 

 

EVENS isnt that you get back what you paid, its an even set of odds i.e 50:50.. so your 50% likely to win and 50% likely to lose... in decimal its a 2.0 bet, so if your stake is 100 your winning would be 100 (but you get your 100 back)...

 

When betting is shown on the game screen after a win is only shows the +/- amount... so in effect you only see the +$100 dollars, but that's in addition to the return of your stake.... i.e the original $100 you bet

 

so to strip away the uncertainty we will try the example while keeping all numbers visible

 

you place a $100 bet at EVENS (or 2.0...see how its easier to understand)

then what you get back is $200 ...

this only puts you up by $100 as your original bet was $100,

 

this  is why the winners screen in game will show this as +$100 (which might be why you thought you only got back what you bet, in fact you got back what you bet, on top of the original bet.. i.e not down)

 

again this is much easier to see when your using decimals ... and i hope it makes it a bit clearer...

 

 

personally im not a betting man IRL but on the occasions i do bet i actually tend to win.. im not sure if its just an intrinsic part of my nature to understand risk... or if im just lucky and only choose to bet on those coincidental times that im likely to win (which again is based on probability, even not knowing anything about betting your statistically likely to win sometimes) ... i guess that depends on how much you believe in fate.

 

i suck at math so I still don't get it

but shouldn't a bigger bet give you more money?

is this just their way of capping the profit you can make with betting

 

cuz if they'd just pool all the bets and give it to the winner or something like that you could make way more money

 

if you understood how it works you wouldnt say that

 

ive come second third and fourth in a few races where ive actually won more than 1st place because of marginal spread betting... if you know what your doing its easily achievable to win more in betting... hell ive even purposefully sacrificed first place because i knew id win more from bets than actually winning the race...  odds and chace are one think but Ive made 252k betting alone... so im pretty adept at not losing money.


 

Yeah now you can watch for those people and take advantage when you do. The only problem is when people start seeing you win a lot of bets they'll start betting on you since you always seem to make money. This will drive your odds down and you essentially don't win money.

 

One example last night, I had something like 8/1 odds with a 100$ bet. I kept upping the bet amount by 100$ until I got to a 400$ bet. At 400 my odds changed to evens. With an evens odd I won the race and I won 400$ essentially I just won the money I had bet so I won nothing from what I can tell. If i'd kept betting I suspect my odds would have shot above EVENS thus resulting in my win being in a negative balance like 350$ of my original 400 thus making me 50$ in the hole (that's just a guess I don't know this for sure yet) but it's just how it looks to me so far.

 

Evens means that every dollar you bet pays back one dollar.  So if you bet $400 at Evens and you win, you make $400 profit (not just your original $400 back).  If you bet $2500 on yourself and there's a $100 bet on another person, you'll often get 2/5 odds on yourself.  Meaning that you profit $2 for every $5 that you bet.  If you win, you'll profit $1000.

 

 

 

this man knows..... cheers for making sense of the fractional odds... ive personally always done better converting them to decimals as my brain understand them a lot better, but your spot on fella..

 

out of interest are you up or down on betting on social club?? my bet is up... (forgive the pun)

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Kracus
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#15

Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:53 PM

Yeah I always wondered if it included the amount you bet in your winnings. That's good to know and pretty much the last aspect of betting that I didn't quite understand thanks!


Kinkade
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#16

Posted 04 February 2014 - 03:52 PM

Good show, Gents. This discussion should help anyone willing to read make a bit more cash. I've found betting to be one of the most enjoyable parts of racing if you can get a lobby to play for more than a few races and watch trends. I'm a decent driver, but by no means do I win consistently. Understanding the betting system can make even a middle finish worthwhile.

Also, I think fractional odds are best viewed as (return/investment). Decimal does allow you to better track changes in odds on the fly if you get a lobby with a lot of action.

Not that I condone it, but if you've been consistently winning and the lobby puts all their money on you, you can bet minimally on everyone else, throw the race, and still make a nice payday.
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Kracus
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#17

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:01 PM

Good show, Gents. This discussion should help anyone willing to read make a bit more cash. I've found betting to be one of the most enjoyable parts of racing if you can get a lobby to play for more than a few races and watch trends. I'm a decent driver, but by no means do I win consistently. Understanding the betting system can make even a middle finish worthwhile.

Also, I think fractional odds are best viewed as (return/investment). Decimal does allow you to better track changes in odds on the fly if you get a lobby with a lot of action.

Not that I condone it, but if you've been consistently winning and the lobby puts all their money on you, you can bet minimally on everyone else, throw the race, and still make a nice payday.

 

Yeah that time everyone bet on me I considered doing that. I think I may next time I'd have raked in roughly 6k instead of the 1.4 I won in the race.


Zwenkwiel
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#18

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:05 PM Edited by Zwenkwiel, 04 February 2014 - 04:06 PM.

mo-seph, on 04 Feb 2014 - 2:23 PM, said:

 

 

 

out of interest which odds format do you use?? i presume the x/y style..

 

i used to use the x/y style that you do, but then changed to decimal.. it actually makes it much easier to understand the changes....

 

it also makes it more obvious where you are better placed to spread bet (i.e betting on multiple parties)... for example i was in a rom of three recently, my odds were 1.80, another guy (b) was 2.4 and another © 8.0 so i placed my bets as $300 on me, and $200 on the 8.0 guy... his odds dropped to around 4.5, mine remained at around 1.8 and the 2.4 dropped to 2..

 

so in that circumstance if i win, my payout is 1.8 x 300 = 540, if b wins i get 0 and if c wins i get 200 x 4.5 = 900... as it goes he did actually win, i came out at $400 up, so i mitigated the risk of my 300 on myself, through spreading the bet... the only way i could lose was if b won the race... as me winning = 540 (+$40) if b wins i lose 500 (the stake) and if c won (which he did) i get 900 - 500 (the stake)

 

 

where do you chance this, just online options or something?

cuz with the decimals it make a lot more sense to me now


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#19

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:16 PM

Damn I had been keeping my mouth shut about this hoping no one would notice. I put $100 on myself each and every race and let dummies put up their $2500 and watch my odds go to 33/1 while theirs were 5/4 or such. I would profit more from my $100 bet than they would with their $2500 one. Oh well it was only a matter of time I guess

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#20

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:18 PM

Seems like an overly-complicated way of doing things. Even now that it is explained I'm not sure I fully understand. Time to start betting a hundo and see what happens though, lol.


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#21

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:21 PM Edited by H8GodMode, 04 February 2014 - 04:22 PM.

i only bet 100$. it ussually pans out to me winning 2000+ with 20/1 odds.

 

also i use the money format in the settings to see my odds. ie - it shows you how much money youll win versus a x/x factor


Kracus
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#22

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:23 PM

With the decimal settings  you'll be able to predict how much you're going to win more easily.

 

What I do is bet 100$ and see what my odds are then I increase the bet 100$ at a time until I've maxed out how much I can win. Like sometimes betting 500$ might give me 10/1 odds meaning I'd win 5000$ but if I only bet 100 I'd get like 30/1 odds meaning I'd only win like 3000$. What happens is everytime I was betting, everyone elses odds were changing thus causing other players to increase their bets thus changing my odds further.

 

What you don't want to do is start at 2500$ unless you're absolutely certain you can win.


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#23

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:28 PM

Last time I checked I had 4 million in gambling losses so this is good to know. Thanks!

I must have gone crazy betting $2,500 on every racer when I was a billionaire to have wracked that up. It seems excessively high.

Kracus
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#24

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:30 PM Edited by Kracus, 04 February 2014 - 04:31 PM.

Last time I checked I had 4 million in gambling losses so this is good to know. Thanks!

I must have gone crazy betting $2,500 on every racer when I was a billionaire to have wracked that up. It seems excessively high.

 

Yeah my main characters betting stat is stupid, not huge losses but definitely more losses than wins. I just figured this out last night and with my second character her betting wins are over 8000$ and her total bets placed are like 1000$ so definitely a money maker for me now.

 

edit: Looked at the stat

 

BETS Placed = 1,900$

BETS Won    = 8,060$


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#25

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:30 PM

Last time I checked I had 4 million in gambling losses so this is good to know. Thanks!

I must have gone crazy betting $2,500 on every racer when I was a billionaire to have wracked that up. It seems excessively high.

 

most people seem to but somehow i managed to stay in positive figures... im sure ive a screenshot or two of some decent wins where i lost the race but won in betting, would take me some time to dig out...


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#26

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:31 PM Edited by stonedpimpso, 04 February 2014 - 04:31 PM.

every once in a while there's a thread the renews my faith in the GTAO forums, this is one of these threads. Great info OP, I haven't raced in a month or so. Time to win some cash.

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cwo-reynolds
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#27

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:35 PM

I have the odds set as a decimal so of I'm .500 that means I got a 25/75 shot. If its 1 I got a 50/50 odds, and anything more than 50/50 odds I don't bet over 500$ because even if I win I'm not gonna win much more than what I bet. I could always throw the race and put my money on a guy who has sh*tty odds of winning to maximize profits. But yeah that way of displaying the odds is easier for me because I'm not a fractions guy, I do real numbers.

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#28

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:57 PM

I reading every thing here and it's still a mystery, I just bet $100 on myself because I lose a lot anyway and if I don't bet and they do sometimes all bets are cancelled isn't that true too?


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#29

Posted 04 February 2014 - 05:05 PM

So how do I see my odds?

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#30

Posted 04 February 2014 - 05:06 PM

I reading every thing here and it's still a mystery, I just bet $100 on myself because I lose a lot anyway and if I don't bet and they do sometimes all bets are cancelled isn't that true too?
 

 

There has to be a bet on at least two players or else you get the "betting cancelled" thing.  Just bet $100 on someone else.





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