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General North Korea discussion

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DOUGL4S1
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#271

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by DOUGL4S1, 2 weeks ago.

I may be going kinda off the discussion, but history aside, it is pretty worrying to think that the dictatorship that almost caused tons of wars now theoretically has the power to make hydrogen bombs. This only adds up to the building tension between NK and other countries like SK and the USA, not to think that they have close(r.) relations to China. It's pretty scary to think we may see the first nuclear war on our lifetime.

 

I don't know why, but I think North Korea is a pretty interesting country, mostly because of how closed they are to foreigners, all the propaganda and how rare it is to get any information on the country without bias or the aforementioned propaganda. Sure, there are tours around the country, and of course, you will be watched 24/7 and they will probably arrest you for the littlest of reasons, but even then it is like looking at a country from a window, with scenes that are most likely staged and Potemkin places.

 

But I do feel bad for the people living near this conflict. Mass evacuations and maybe the investment on things like Bunkers are not an overreaction in any way, specially for SK residents. We're basically a press of a button away from one of the sides to go Hiroshima on the other, and good luck to North Korea if they do decide to attack Guam.


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#272

Posted 2 weeks ago

the problem with NK it's that it's an absolute totalitarian regime. thus when someone from outside pops in and says 'hey please stop that nuclear thing for the sake of the humanity', it's instantly taken as a provocation. why, simply because such regime can't show any form of weakness to their people. if they do they know they'll have to face a revolution within weeks. this is why NK leader(s) are sending missiles all around like if it was a 4th of july. i think trump response is good. NK are crazy, they have to know who they have in front of them. sending a ballistic missile (even empty) over Japan, come on. this is insanity. but i think there's a peaceful solution though, and it's in the hands of China. if China puts pressure onto NK they can't resist. and if this happens Trump should be more moderate, because it'll be the excuse for Jong-un to blow the whole thing up


DOUGL4S1
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#273

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by DOUGL4S1, 2 weeks ago.

China has actually condemned their nuclear tests, but they just seem to not be taking any action. North Korea is strongly dependent on China, so if they decide to block all relations with NK, the regime would probably enter another crysis. However, it is unknown if this could have any positive affects as Kim would most likely keep spending most of the country's resources into propaganda and ammunition, if he doesn't declare war with the rest of the world on a last stand.

 

A thing China could do is start welcoming North Korean refugees, like or in a similar way South Korea does. The NK-China border is not as heavily guarded as the NK-SK border, that even counts with landmines and most of the few successful escapes are from military personel that were supposed to be guarding the border. Recently, China deports all escapees from NK back to NK, which can have deadly results and make the escape even more risky. Another thing they could do is like other asian countries do: deport North Koreans back to 'Korea', South Korea. This could anger a few people and maybe escalate things a little, but it could save thousands of lifes.

 

And I'm sure the North Korean people would not want or would not be able to make a revolution. People against the regime get extremelly harsh punishments, like being sentenced to prison, forced labor or even death. Not to say that, the 'simple' people, like farmers and such, they don't even have physical conditions to start a battle against heavily armed guards. Famines are pretty common, and people need to plant what they will eat. People are weak and sick, and be crumpled by the military in minutes. And the people that could put up a fight are the elites, and in NK, this means that they're the people working for the government or the military, and they wouldn't want to turn against themselves. And that if they want to rebel against the government. I know it's quite common to smuggle CDs and Flash Drives with movies from all over the world (but specially from China and South Korea) into North Korea, and I've heard that most people think these movies with tall buildings and happy luxurious lifes and stuff, are only propaganda from those countries to the people of NK.


_47_
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#274

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by _47_, 2 weeks ago.

Just let North Korea do what they want. If they nuke or bomb some poor country or territory, then we can go to war. After all it is the USA being the aggressors right? Right. Besides it's only a few hundred thousand people dead. Not that big of a number right? Exactly.

 

I swear its damned if you do or damned if you don't. In this case to remove all doubts about the situation regarding this topic and let Kim bomb or nuke someone first. You know just to be sure it's not America's fault this time like the rest of the world likes to play at.

 

Oh and China - They don't want to get involved in any way, shape, or form. But no one is putting enough pressure on them. They will just blame someone else for their inaction. 

 

Let the world burn. Fck it.

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El Diablo
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#275

Posted 2 weeks ago

guys I'm scared.

 

are we all gonna' die?

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DOUGL4S1
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#276

Posted 2 weeks ago

It's kinda like a mini-Cold War standoff at this point, basically. All we can do is just wait until someone goes full Hiroshima on someone else and watch it all unfold.


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#277

Posted 2 weeks ago

Vladimir Putin warns world faces 'global catastrophe' over North Korea

 

 

He warned that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has calculated that the survival of his regime depends on its development of nuclear weapons. Kim had seen how western intervention in Iraq had ended in the overthrow of Saddam Hussein after which the country was ravaged by war, Putin warned, and Kim was determined not to suffer the same fate.

 

All DPRK wants is assurance it won't be invaded by America. Since America isn't good at keeping its words, the only way to ensure such is by having nukes, sadly.

And sadly, America's arrogance makes it think it can threaten anyone and push anyone to the brink, demanding whatever it wants and setting the rules for the entire planet.


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#278

Posted 2 weeks ago

just because one man crazy. glad i'm leaving in a democracy


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#279

Posted 2 weeks ago

This situation is just like it was in the past, but now we have an orange buffon and Barbie doll brain in the UN representing us in that region. And now Trump supporters want to genocide innocent Koreans lol.
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#280

Posted 2 weeks ago

I still maintain that China needs to remove Kim Jong Un. You don't have to invade them or bomb them, just decapitate the ruling classes and replace them with people who will be loyal to China and model North Korea on the Chinese model - which will vastly improve the lives of the people there.

North Korea gets 90% of their trade with the Chinese, they have profited from the protection offered by the Chinese, and yet the North Korean leadership continuously acts in a manner which only serves to embarrass and endanger their greatest ally.

Those itching for a war are not concerned with South or North Korean lives, their only interest is in attempting to completely remove Chinese influence from the region. Kim Jong Un's behaviour has emboldened these warmongers, and I genuinely don't understand why China has done nothing to remove him.

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#281

Posted 2 weeks ago

I wonder how decapitating the leadership would work. I guess the main obstacle is the danger that if Kim Jong Un catches wind of an impeding coup, he will take extremely drastic measures. A sort of "take them all down with me" kind of deal.

 

sh*t, for all we know, they may be working on it now. We'll never know until it actually happens, or it fails spectacularly. Let's not forget Un was able to poison his own half brother in a foreign country. I'd bet on them having extreme grasp on intelligence inside DPRK.

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#282

Posted 2 weeks ago

A further issue to consider: It is possible that despite the high tensions between North Korea and everyone else in the region, that no war will actually break out, and the status quo will remain. Even with North Korea being in possession of nukes. To some, that is an acceptable outcome, even though it means accepting North Korea as a nuclear power.

However, what is to stop North Korea from selling its nuclear technology to other regimes interested in buying them? North Korea is spending around 10% of its BNP on this programme, and if they are pretty strapped for cash, that selling the technology to other regimes or groups would be hugely profitable. And DPRK would have far less concern for selling its technology than the current group of nuclear states.

This is the real worst case scenario. Suddenly nuclear weapons appearing elsewhere. The ramifications are unfathomable.
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#283

Posted 2 weeks ago

I still maintain that China needs to remove Kim Jong Un. You don't have to invade them or bomb them, just decapitate the ruling classes

The NK regime is a product of Kim Il-sung's vision. Without that family, the whole idea becomes very hard to pull off. So I'd take out all of them including his top generals.

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krypt0s
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#284

Posted 2 weeks ago

However, what is to stop North Korea from selling its nuclear technology to other regimes interested in buying them? North Korea is spending around 10% of its BNP on this programme, and if they are pretty strapped for cash, that selling the technology to other regimes or groups would be hugely profitable. And DPRK would have far less concern for selling its technology than the current group of nuclear states.

This is the real worst case scenario. Suddenly nuclear weapons appearing elsewhere. The ramifications are unfathomable.


The more provocative NK actions become, the more aid money they get from our world's damage-control diplomacy. Exporting insecurity is Pyongyang's time-tested means to reaping concessions. Whether these funds help get aid or fund more tests (which could be exported for more funds), is questionable.

DOUGL4S1
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#285

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by DOUGL4S1, 2 weeks ago.

 

I still maintain that China needs to remove Kim Jong Un. You don't have to invade them or bomb them, just decapitate the ruling classes

The NK regime is a product of Kim Il-sung's vision. Without that family, the whole idea becomes very hard to pull off. So I'd take out all of them including his top generals.

 

Killing or removing the Kim dynasty would be extremelly hard. Kim Jong-Un not only has a child, but he has other brothers that could take his place and declare a nuclear war against the world, not to mention high-ranking military officials. If you take one out, there's 100 more to pull the trigger. Also, its dynasty is not only seen as a political figure in DPRK, but he's mostly seen sort of as a god. Any attempts to take him or his family out would be met with high disapproval from everyone in the country, mostly Military and the elites, so it would not make anything better. if anything, it would make things 1000x worse.


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#286

Posted 2 weeks ago

This situation is just like it was in the past, but now we have an orange buffon and Barbie doll brain in the UN representing us in that region. And now Trump supporters want to genocide innocent Koreans lol.


Yeah because most Trump supporters are blood thirsty killers. Oh and Im assuming North Korea, a Totalitarian regime just wants whats best for its country. Hahhaha. Like I said, the US should just pull back and let fatboy Kim show you how nice of a person he is. No matter how you spin it, the guy is going to do the same thing even if the US hadnt lifted a finger to help.

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#287

Posted 2 weeks ago

No matter how you spin it, the guy is going to do the same thing even


Oh, and what's that then? Please, tell us more of your sage and reasoned analysts in North Korea strategic theory.

_47_
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#288

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by _47_, 2 weeks ago.

No matter how you spin it, the guy is going to do the same thing even

Oh, and what's that then? Please, tell us more of your sage and reasoned analysts in North Korea strategic theory.
I dont need to. No matter what I say, you along with the rest of the world already assume the US is the cause of all this mess. I dont approve of my govt doing what it does but its mighty funny how everyone is ok with a known plausible psychotic dictator showing his nukes to the world and willing to nuke anyone that is deemed a threat. Also the same guy that starved and kills thousands of his own people on a yearly basis.

So. You tell me what would you do that hasnt already been done and without any influence of the US whatsoever? I will be waiting on your rebuttle.

Would everyone here be really ok with a dictator having ICBMs capable of reaching anyone on the globe? Someone with the unstable mental capacity of Kim's IQ. It sounds like most of you do.

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#289

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by Uncle Sikee Atric, 2 weeks ago.

This situation is just like it was in the past, but now we have an orange buffon and Barbie doll brain in the UN representing us in that region. And now Trump supporters want to genocide innocent Koreans lol.


Yeah because most Trump supporters are blood thirsty killers. Oh and Im assuming North Korea, a Totalitarian regime just wants whats best for its country. Hahhaha. Like I said, the US should just pull back and let fatboy Kim show you how nice of a person he is. No matter how you spin it, the guy is going to do the same thing even if the US hadnt lifted a finger to help.

 
Yeah, right, rallying cries to arms like that make you sound like one of those blood thirsty killers!
 
This situation is the ultimate 'Mexican Stand-off' and making out Kim Jung Un is stupid is a pretty illogical move, given that the real seat of power in the DPRK lies with the military generals that are always stood behind the Dear Leader.  The Kim family has been little more than figurehead leaders for the regime during it's entire existence....
 
The DPRK military treat the civilian population in a pretty dire way because that's all they know.  Most willingly enter conscription since they know they get better meals and their families get better treatment from the state, this knowledge is why most also stay on in the military once their conscription period is complete.   But this means the vast military machine is powered by a significant percentage that are very inexperienced, carry second rate equipment and cannot be trusted in a war situation, so these units wouldn't be deployed in active combat willingly, vastly reducing the 'apparent' size of the DPRK front line military.
 
The Generals also know that if they dare try to dip into their stockpile of 'apparent' nuclear and chemical arms, the U.S. wouldn't hesitate (given the blood thirsty regime in the White House) to respond for either itself or it's South Korean allies.  So I do suspect the DPRK is being honest in it's intent to only create a nuclear deterrent of it's own to answer those already pointed at it, but the way it's doing it's tests and claims is not really helping the situation.  Either way, I'm pretty sure the DPRK will stay home and keep rattling the sabre, just to keep reminding the world that it's still there.
 
Meanwhile, the Russians and Chinese keep their noses in the back door of North Korea.  The DPRK cannot afford to have these supporters pack up on them and if they do go on the offensive I'm pretty sure they would, doubly so as the US continues to threaten to stop trading with any other country that trades with North Korea.  There's also another thing to consider as North Korea has been a major thorn in the side of China since their own country began to modernize.  I suspect China is quietly moving troops to the Korean Peninsula area and awaiting developments.  Right now they'll do nothing, but a DPRK offensive South might make the Chinese change their mind to remove this thorn.
 
North Korea is increasingly looking like the 'Isreal Of The Far East'  (Surrounded on all sides by nations that want them removed, but they have nukes to deter an attack).  The DPRK couldn't go on the offensive as they'd be overwhelmed on all sides, not just by the Americans.
 
They'll stay home....

I dont need to. No matter what I say, you along with the rest of the world already assume the US is the cause of all this mess. I dont approve of my govt doing what it does but its mighty funny how everyone is ok with a known plausible psychotic dictator showing his nukes to the world and willing to nuke anyone that is deemed a threat. Also the same guy that starved and kills thousands of his own people on a yearly basis.

So. You tell me what would you do that hasnt already been done and without any influence of the US whatsoever? I will be waiting on your rebuttle.

Would everyone here be really ok with a dictator having ICBMs capable of reaching anyone on the globe? Someone with the unstable mental capacity of Kim's IQ. It sounds like most of you do.


Are you talking about Kim Jong Un or the Orange Don himself when you use the passage? The names seem inter-changable to me.
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Svip
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#290

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by Svip, 2 weeks ago.

No matter how you spin it, the guy is going to do the same thing even

Oh, and what's that then? Please, tell us more of your sage and reasoned analysts in North Korea strategic theory.

I dont need to. No matter what I say, you along with the rest of the world already assume the US is the cause of all this mess. I dont approve of my govt doing what it does but its mighty funny how everyone is ok with a known plausible psychotic dictator showing his nukes to the world and willing to nuke anyone that is deemed a threat.


I am pretty sure the general consensus is that the Soviet Union and China are the biggest causes for this mess, if we exclude North Korea as a culprit.

Well, at least I hope that's the general consensus, because those are the most obvious candidates. Sure, the Soviet Union is gone, and Russia does not hold its hand over North Korea anymore, particularly not since the Sino-Soviet split. Of course, the USSR was an important trade partner for the DPRK, and its economy has basically stagnated since the former's collapse, but China has remained protective of the regime.

And China's protection is effectively the cause the of the crisis. China doesn't want a US ally on its border, and has therefore preferred the status quo, assuming - falsely - that no significant parameter would change, because it knew the US nor Japan or South Korea would be interested in an armed conflict either.

The US has long desired to end the North Korean problem along with its allies, but the Soviet and Chinese protections have prevented them, and now - even if Russia and China began actively opposing the regime - it seems like the old ways of dealing with the conflict is no longer viable, due to the consequences of such a war.

The good options have gone, because they were not allowed to be pursued. Generally speaking, the general preference in the region is to maintain the status quo, but it seems harder and harder to do, as tensions are increasing.

But still, why don't you provide some analysis?

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#291

Posted 2 weeks ago Edited by _47_, 2 weeks ago.

 

 

 

No matter how you spin it, the guy is going to do the same thing even

Oh, and what's that then? Please, tell us more of your sage and reasoned analysts in North Korea strategic theory.

 

I dont need to. No matter what I say, you along with the rest of the world already assume the US is the cause of all this mess. I dont approve of my govt doing what it does but its mighty funny how everyone is ok with a known plausible psychotic dictator showing his nukes to the world and willing to nuke anyone that is deemed a threat.

 


I am pretty sure the general consensus is that the Soviet Union and China are the biggest causes for this mess, if we exclude North Korea as a culprit.

Well, at least I hope that's the general consensus, because those are the most obvious candidates. Sure, the Soviet Union is gone, and Russia does not hold its hand over North Korea anymore, particularly not since the Sino-Soviet split. Of course, the USSR was an important trade partner for the DPRK, and its economy has basically stagnated since the former's collapse, but China has remained protective of the regime.

And China's protection is effectively the cause the of the crisis. China doesn't want a US ally on its border, and has therefore preferred the status quo, assuming - falsely - that no significant parameter would change, because it knew the US nor Japan or South Korea would be interested in an armed conflict either.

The US has long desired to end the North Korean problem along with its allies, but the Soviet and Chinese protections have prevented them, and now - even if Russia and China began actively opposing the regime - it seems like the old ways of dealing with the conflict is no longer viable, due to the consequences of such a war.

The good options have gone, because they were not allowed to be pursued. Generally speaking, the general preference in the region is to maintain the status quo, but it seems harder and harder to do, as tensions are increasing.

But still, why don't you provide some analysis?

 

 

The analysis is simple.  War is inevitable. That does not mean I am advocating war in the slightest but the way you have described it, no matter if China and Russia were the proxies for North Korea. NK cannot be truly won without confronting the two major players involved and calling their bluff. Unfortunately something will be found in regards to NK as it stands today soon. What comes of this will show the true colors of which major power is supplying or supporting NK and what is done in consequence of that will not be pretty.

 

All this of course is theoretical but all of this will come out to light sooner rather than later and what the leaders of these country's do in response when the truth comes out will be nothing short of the brink of war.

 

Worst case scenario. Maybe I am wrong or over thinking it. I hope this is all wrong.


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#292

Posted 2 weeks ago

I do not get why you are trying to strawman us all into being OK with North Korea's existence. We generally are not. But we recognise that a war to fully take out the regime will be incredibly costly, and that's just thinking in human cost.

Your option of war isn't exactly comforting. It would have been a more acceptable solution if it was clear that it would mostly be military forces taking the brunt of engagement. But in a war between North Korea and the US (plus their allies, if any), it would be Seoul baring the brunt of the causalities.

This, in particular, is the opposition to Trump's sabre-rattling; he is effectively playing with the lives of another country. The potential US civilian cost are minimal compared to that of South Korea and Japan.
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_47_
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#293

Posted 2 weeks ago

I do not get why you are trying to strawman us all into being OK with North Korea's existence. We generally are not. But we recognise that a war to fully take out the regime will be incredibly costly, and that's just thinking in human cost.

Your option of war isn't exactly comforting. It would have been a more acceptable solution if it was clear that it would mostly be military forces taking the brunt of engagement. But in a war between North Korea and the US (plus their allies, if any), it would be Seoul baring the brunt of the causalities.

This, in particular, is the opposition to Trump's sabre-rattling; he is effectively playing with the lives of another country. The potential US civilian cost are minimal compared to that of South Korea and Japan.

 

What else is left besides the last resort? Sanctions? Blockades? Negotiations with China or North Korea? Extortion of giving NK money to get them to ease the pressure? What else can be done that hasn't already been done for 25 years?

 

Yeah we all know Trump's egging the issue isn't doing anyone favors but what else is there left to do besides maybe pressuring China to grow a pair and put Kim in his place?


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#294

Posted 2 weeks ago

So, what now? Give South Korea some sort of defense or maybe even nuclear weapons just so millions of people don't die and they stay at MAD forever? Wait until they go through another crysis and stop whatever they're trying to do? Cause that crysis? Doing anything remotely related to military against NK would most likely result in an attack.


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#295

Posted 2 weeks ago

No matter what I say, you along with the rest of the world already assume the US is the cause of all this mess.

What the juddering f*ck are you on about?

I dont approve of my govt doing what it does but its mighty funny how everyone is ok with a known plausible psychotic dictator showing his nukes to the world

Eh? Seriously, what on earth are you trying to say? It's bad enough you misrepresent my views, but now we have this silly global straw man? You really should think things through before you actually say them.

So exactly what can we base any estimate of probability of any course of action on? There's lots of distinct factors that require consideration. First, there's the historic behaviour of the DPRK. They've engaged in military skirmishes with the South, and occasionally American forces on the peripheries, from time to time over the last 60 years. They've attempted some cross-border raids, including at least one to assassinate the SK leadership. They occasionally shell islands or instigate naval confrontations. But they have not shown any interest in direct, substantial military confrontation. This rather tallies up with the notion that, when it comes to geopolitical strategic policy, the DPRK behaves with a modicum of rationality inasmuch as it seeks to continue its existence as a state.

If we assume that, in geopolitical terms at least, Mr Kim is at least a partially rational actor, it stands to reason he has no desire to strike the first blow in any significant military conflict, let alone a nuclear strike. Doing so would be effectively apocalyptic for North Korea. This also tallies with the last 11 years of history, where the DPRK has possessed nuclear weapons but not used them. As an aside, if your intent was to stop NK getting the bomb, then you need to go invent a time machine. Getting a deployable nuclear weapon is just a matter of time from that point.

There have been ten nuclear armed states in global history. Five of these are the UNSC permanent members, five are not and are technically in breach of the NPT by doing so. The closest comparable state to the DPRK in this respect is probably Apartheid era South Africa, which had somewhere between 5 and 20 complete weapons before it renouced its nuclear program in 1994. Only one state, the US, has ever used nuclear weapons in anger.

North Korea having miniaturised a boosted fission weapon is a significant escalation in capability, but it doesn't fundamentally change anything. One, or a couple of, 200kt nuclear weapons that can be delivered 8000km is significant, but it's not a full arsenal useful for first and second strike, and counterforce capability. It can only really do second strike, which is only really useful as a last resort or deterrence.

So. You tell me what would you do that hasnt already been done and without any influence of the US whatsoever?

Wait, why "without any influence of the US"? Is this your continued delusional belief that I blame the US for recent events?

As for what can be done, that depends very much on what outcome you seek. It's all very well you accusing me of failing to provide answers, you haven't actually posed the question.

rebuttle

Lol

Would everyone here be really ok with a dictator having ICBMs capable of reaching anyone on the globe?

It's not like the Soviet Union ever had a massive ICBM arsenal is it? Oh wait, yes they did- significantly larger than that if the US at its peak.
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#296

Posted A week ago Edited by Triple Vacuum Seal, A week ago.

 

 Nonetheless, I smell a bunch of US concessions being re-branded as some America First policy much to the satisfaction of the Chinese.  Nuclear war just doesn't seem likely.  Even nuclear standoffs tend to land presidents in hot water.  Not to mention the economic impact of such flexing.

 

 

That could be a bad idea. I've read at least one analysis that says we should resist the temptation to say, give them Taiwan in exchange for their cooperation.

 

There's really nothing to give them.  They've already got Taiwan by the balls and the Korean Peninsula is within China's sphere of geopolitical influence. Sure it would suck to see the Four Asian Tigers getting pushed around by China, but the US alone can't be expected to defend them from Chinese strong arming indefinitely. It's a global responsibility.

 

I never said any of the remaining options were good.  Yet that shouldn't serve as a pretext for nuking NK into oblivion only to still miss many of the underground installations that enable them to obliterate the entire peninsula.  There is no military strike option.  Best case scenario, you get a prolonged occupation and insurgency that dwarfs the intensity of the War on Terror with casualties in the millions.  That occupation could end with the sorts of concessions to Chinese regional dominance that we could've made at the outset w/o going to war in the first place.

 

NK has already made decent progress in decoupling US interests from Japanese and South Korean interest, an outcome China probably welcomes too.  The ultimate goal should be reunification of the peninsula over any sort of overt military intervention.  That would require a regime collapse in the North and steep protections for the NK elite according to some experts.  This almost certainly requires Chinese cooperation.

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Dr. Robotnik
  • Dr. Robotnik

    Mark Chump

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#297

Posted A week ago

 

 

 Nonetheless, I smell a bunch of US concessions being re-branded as some America First policy much to the satisfaction of the Chinese.  Nuclear war just doesn't seem likely.  Even nuclear standoffs tend to land presidents in hot water.  Not to mention the economic impact of such flexing.

 

 

That could be a bad idea. I've read at least one analysis that says we should resist the temptation to say, give them Taiwan in exchange for their cooperation.

 

There's really nothing to give them.  They've already got Taiwan by the balls and the Korean Peninsula is within China's sphere of geopolitical influence. Sure it would suck to see the Four Asian Tigers getting pushed around by China, but the US alone can't be expected to defend them from Chinese strong arming indefinitely. It's a global responsibility.

 

I never said any of the remaining options were good.  Yet that shouldn't serve as a pretext for nuking NK into oblivion only to still miss many of the underground installations that enable them to obliterate the entire peninsula.  There is no military strike option.  Best case scenario, you get a prolonged occupation and insurgency that dwarfs the intensity of the War on Terror with casualties in the millions.  That occupation could end with the sorts of concessions to Chinese regional dominance that we could've made at the outset w/o going to war in the first place.

 

NK has already made decent progress in decoupling US interests from Japanese and South Korean interest, an outcome China probably welcomes too.  The ultimate goal should be reunification of the peninsula over any sort of overt military intervention.  That would require a regime collapse in the North and steep protections for the NK elite according to some experts.  This almost certainly requires Chinese cooperation.

 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis that much (we might've had friendlier relations with China as far as back as the end of World War II if it hadn't been for the China Lobby; we most likely bet on the wrong horse right out of the gate by backing the Nationalists and later, Taiwan, and now may be the point where we can no longer continue to do so). I might disagree that Trump would have difficulty selling an American withdrawal and concessions to the Chinese as "America First", since avoiding foreign entanglements is what I thought "America First" was supposed to be.


Shyabang Shyabang
  • Shyabang Shyabang

    Wild Thing

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#298

Posted 6 days ago


The Yokel
  • The Yokel

    First of his name

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#299

Posted 6 days ago Edited by The Yokel, 6 days ago.

If that missile had accidentally hit Japan would the world be in nuclear war against NK right now?


Tchuck
  • Tchuck

    Grey Gaming

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  • Japan

#300

Posted 6 days ago

Not a full out nuclear war, but there would just be some craters where NK used to be, and Seoul would be in rubble. Some Japanese cities might be damaged, but nothing too terrible I'd wager. Though if one of the warheads did manage to land in Tokyo, you could certainly put the casualties in the millions. 

 

Unlikely for those things to accidentally hit something else, I'd guess. NK has come a long way with their technology.

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