I read a lot topics here on GTAForums every day and everywhere people discussing about the release date of GTA V. I'll explain why I think that the release of GTA V will be before March 31st 2013. I will edit this post from time to time because I want all facts and realistic guesses in this topic. Anyway the fiscal year ends on March 31st since 2010. Everything in this topic is a summary of all facts and guesses.
Credits by: me (Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian), bud23, canttakemyid, Magic_AI, GTA4L1fe, Audiophile, TakeTwo finance on Yahoo!;
-TakeTwo predicted $1.75-$2 per share earnings for the fiscal year 2013 and shares have plummeted since then with no interference or panic from TakeTwo.
-TakeTwo delayed Bioshock Infinite until February 26th 2013.
-Rockstar wants to maximize their profits, so GTA V mustn't come out within one month of Bioshock Infinite's release.
-January is the worst month in the whole year when it comes to the sales. February is the month of Bioshock and March would be too short to make such a high income.
-Other gaming companies feared GTA V competition and have rearranged release to no longer come in fall 2012 including the cancellation of a minor installation by the competitor Saints Row.
-TakeTwo's CEO maintained his stance that we will see earnings in fiscal year 2013 in a recent conference call when shares were still low.
-In February, Rockstar stated that they will start talking about GTA V "in a few months time" and it's been 6 months since then.
-All license plates in the trailer are from 2012. If all license plates in the game are from 2012, then that's the target release year. If there is a variation in plates but they only picked the 2012 ones for the trailer (which came out in 2011), then this strengthens the case.
-Guild Wars 2's release date was announced on June 28th 2012 and the game will be released on August 28th so exactly 2 months after the release date announcement.
-Most of the Max Payne 3 DLCs will be released until the end of the summer. There are only 2 DLC packs in the fall. Rockstar canceled a couple DLCs to make 3 big instead of 5 small DLC packs.
-The highest value that TakeTwo ever reached was $28.51 on June 6th 2005. The lowest value that they had was 5.62$ on March 3rd 2009. The current value of the shares: $10.21.
|QUOTE (bud23 @ Sunday, Aug 19 2012, 21:55)|
Yes, mate, people here think that Take two can offer a wrong and incorrect guidance to its shareholders with no consequence at all.
There is a thing named SEC that has rules and laws that you can't violate. One of these rules says that you MUSTN'T offer an incorrect, wrong or incomplete guidance/forecast.
As Magic_Al said, the GTA V release date was announced internally on May 2011. You can say what you want but right now the only fact is that TakeTwo expect to launch GTA V before March 31, 2013. Nothing more, nothing less.
From Take Two code of conduct:
We are required to provide accurate, appropriate and timely material information to the public, including our shareholders and the media, and to the various government and quasi-government agencies where we do business, including regulatory and law enforcement agencies, to keep them informed of matters that affect our organization.
|QUOTE (bud23 @ Wednesday, Jul 11 2012, 19:45)|
|Right now the real problem for TakeTwo is the volume. The volume is the people that buy or sell a stock.|
Your stocks can drop, but if the volume is small this doesn't mean sh*t.
Right now the volume is unusually high and the stocks plummet at the same time.
This mean that nobody have confident in you.
Now exist a strong, consolidated tendency and it's really negative.
TakeTwo need to do a bold move to avoid a troubling situation,
and what can they offer? Only GTA V.
TakeTwo need to provide proof of life of GTA V and they need do it as soon as possible.
|QUOTE (Audiophile @ Sunday, Aug 19 2012, 20:11)|
Yes. People seem to overlook that.
A company can market more than one game at a time instead of focusing on a single sku marketing tactic like right now. If they start marketing V, it doesn't mean they have to stop marketing or supporting MP3. Because it's as simple as those who own MP3 will still be interested in hearing about the DLC and events for it. Even if they start marketing V tomorrow, it doesn't mean the game will release in a week. People will still be playing and interested in MP3. The more they keep marketing MP3, the more money they lose because as stated at the TTWO conference MP3 isn't making them the money they hoped it would. So they're losing more than they are getting back if they continue this heavy form of marketing for MP3.
In fact, I think it wouldn't hurt MP3 to start V marketing. A lot of people I know actually ignore and refuse to buy MP3 DLC because they are pissed off due to no V marketing, thinking that MP3 is the cause of this. They're "voting with their wallet" so to speak. Now I don't 100% agree with that because I am of the opinion that they have no other choice but to keep speaking about MP3 on their newswire. They don't appear to be ready to begin full-blown marketing on V or talk about it. So what else are they going to talk about on the newswire? Obviously their most recent game above everything else.
I just don't understand where people get the idea that marketing one product at a time is all a company can do. It's simply not true but I know it feels and looks that way due to the situation now.
|QUOTE (Audiophile @ Tuesday, Jul 31 2012, 22:06)|
|Sick and tired of typing the same thing in billions of threads so I will copy and paste it:|
Answer me this those who doubt a 2012 release or even an early 2013 one. How then do you expect R* games SOLELY (R* games...so no Borderlands 2 etc) to provide....55% of 1.8 billion of TakeTwo's earnings. Do you seriously think MP3 DLC will earn them this?
Agent is basically a no-show for sure. What other game does R* have aside from GTA V?
Goddamn just because TTWO didn't say sh*t today about GTA V doesn't mean anything. They are NOT R*. They won't release R*'s info for them. Everyone chill out and see what August brings.
If August fails then most likely abandon 2012 release.
|QUOTE (Magic_AI @ Wednesday, Jul 11 2012, 02:56)|
|Why is anybody guessing past March 2013 when Take-Two has been saying for a long time they'll make the big money by then, and there's no evidence of a delay?|
|QUOTE (GTA4L1fe @ Thursday, Jul 12 2012, 12:10)|
|TakeTwo are predicting such high income because they assume GTA V will get released this fiscal year. If they didn't have any indication that the game will get released this fiscal year, they wouldn't predict such high income in the first place.|
|QUOTE (canttakemyid @ Saturday, Jul 14 2012, 12:37)|
They've been QA testing for months. I like how people conveniently forget that the forums were blazing with topics about Rockstar North hiring testers in January 2012. Not referring to knecht-ruprecht by the way (the general 2013 argument). I think "full development" hasn't been used for months by Rockstar to describe GTA V's status and even if they did, it's a very ambiguous statement. The "no October 2012" opinion is running pretty short on any real logic other than the lack of info, which means nothing with a game like GTA V.
It's just one of those situations where noone knows for sure, but anyone who says after March (the end of fiscal year 2013) isn't even worth taking seriously in my opinion. No other games will bring a $2 per share earning... Not Bioshock and especially not MP3 DLCs (that's laughable).
|QUOTE (Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian @ Sunday, Aug 12 2012, 20:02)|
|People often discuss how long the marketing of a game have to take at minimum. Anyway the marketing don't have to start earlier than exactly 2 months before the release. Why? Because Rockstar usually start with the pre-ordering of their games exactly 2 months before the release. So it's possible that Rockstar announce the release date and then they start with the pre-ordering AND the marketing campaign on the same day. People seem to forget that the marketing campaign WILL NOT end with the release of the game. The effective marketing end 2 months after the release because 80% of the sales are in the first 2 months after the release of a game. So that would be 4 months of a full-blown marketing campaign. More isn't needed for a game as big as Grand Theft Auto V and a longer marketing campaign wouldn't make the game more succesful and it'd be just a waste of money.|
|QUOTE (Carl CJ Johnsons brother Brian @ Monday, Aug 13 2012, 15:30)|
|There is no evidence for a delay of GTA V which means it'll be released between now and March 31st 2013. A delay is possible but IT'S NOT DELAYED YET. We already have a trailer which means the game isn't far away. Rockstar don't pre-render their trailers so it's ingame footage. The longest wait between a first trailer and a release was Midnight Club Los Angeles with 14 but the game was delayed by months. Now Rockstar use a new strategy which is clear because 9 months ago the trailer was released and we don't have a release date yet. I made a list with games from Rockstar so the first trailers and release dates.|
Title - first trailer - release date (gap between first trailer and release date)
GTA San Andreas: First trailer in August 2004, released in October 2004 (2 months between first trailer and release)
Bully: First trailer in August 2006, released in October 2006 (2 months between first trailer and release)
Manhunt 2: First trailer in February 2007, released in October 2007 (8 months between first trailer and release)
GTA IV: First trailer in March 2007, released in April 2008 (13 months between first trailer and release, but the game was delayed for 6 months because of issues on the PS3)
Midnight Club Los Angeles: First trailer in August 2007, released in October 2008 (14 months between first trailer and release, but the game was delayed for 7 months because Rockstar don't wanted to let crush it with GTA IV)
Red Dead Redemption: First trailer in May 2009, released in May 2010 (12 months between first trailer and release, but the game was delayed by one month)
L.A. Noire: First trailer in November 2010, released in May 2011 (7 months between first trailer and release, but the game was delayed BEFORE THE FIRST TRAILER)
Max Payne 3: First trailer in September 2011, released in May 2012 (8 months between first trailer and release, but the game was delayed 3 years before and then delayed from March 2012 to May 2012)
|QUOTE (Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian @ Wednesday, Jul 11 2012, 17:55)|
|These finance conferences weren't for fun. The parent company of Rockstar already mentioned in May 2011 that the fiscal year 2013, which start on April 1st 2012 and end on March 31st 2013, will be the best in TakeTwo's history. TakeTwo expected 1.8 billion dollar. 55% (950 million dollar) from Rockstar and 45% (850 million dollar) from 2K. I mean if GTA V won't be released this fiscal year then there is no way that Rockstar will make about 950 million dollar. TakeTwo originally expected 300 million dollar from Max Payne 3 + DLCs but they lowered it to 250 million dollar because of the disappointing sales. A lot of games and even ALL GTAs were delayed and delays cost a lot of money and are bad for the business. Look at their stock. Their loss is relatively big right now. It wouldn't be a smart move if they wouldn't release GTA V this fiscal year. By the way the next-generation of consoles will be released most likely between October 2013 and mid 2014. It'd be bad for GTA V if the next-generation consoles are on the horizon. The last year of a console-generation is the worst if it comes to the sales. I think that many people still don't understand the seriousness of the situation. TakeTwo can't afford that. On the last finance conference you could clearly see that GTA V's internal release date is on track.|
|QUOTE (Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian @ Sunday, Aug 5 2012, 16:11)|
|TakeTwo expect 55% from Rockstar and 45% from 2K. 2K have these games: Spec Ops: The Line, Borderlands 2, NBA 2K13, Bioshock Infinite, XCOM:Enemy Unknown; Spec Ops sold 0.45 million copies. TakeTwo said that 2K's biggest titles are NBA 2K13, Borderlands 2 and Bioshock Infinite. So look at the past sequels of these games. NBA 2K11 sold 5.17 million copies and NBA 2K12 sold 4.92 million copies. Borderlands sold 4.66 million copies. Bioshock sold 3.86 million copies and Bioshock 2 sold 3.43 million copies. Now I take the average sales of the sequels: NBA 2K: ~5 million copies; Borderlands: ~4.7 million copies; Bioshock: ~3.6 million copies; Spec Ops: The line already sold 0.45 million copies; If I calculate all this then the result would be ~13.75 million copies. I round the results gross so NBA: 5 million, Borderlands 4 million, Bioshock 3 million, Spec Ops 0.5 million. So we can say 2K will sell at any rate between 10 and 15 million copies of their games if not more because of Steam and other online retailer this fiscal year which will end on March 31st 2013. I would say rather 15 than 10 million copies. Max Payne 3 sold 1.95 million copies without any online retailer so I would say the game sold 3 million copies. TakeTwo expect 10-15% more money from Rockstar compared to 2K. So Grand Theft Auto V must theoretically sell 12-14 million copies this fiscal year. Remember: That's just theory and it's better for TakeTwo to even surpass the predictions.|
|QUOTE (bud23 @ Friday, Jul 20 2012, 13:53)|
|The games sales plummet, and the first months of 2013 could be a disaster for the industry. October/November are the best months to launch a game. October is the smart move. Launch the game in March, April or May 2013 is just stupid.|
October was the best non-holiday month the US video game market has had in a long time, with an impressive 10 games selling over 200,000 units on a multiplatform basis in four weeks. On a single platform basis, 18 games sold over 100,000 units.
In each of 2008, 2009, and 2010 the 50 million unit software point was crossed sometime in March.
That is, software sold more briskly.
But in 2011, it fell back into early April, indicating a significant slowdown.
This year, unit sales just crossed 51 million units at the very end of May.
POTENTIAL SALES; (consoles shipped in million units)
October-December '11 January-March '12
360 8.2 1.4
PS3 6,5 1.9
IN EARLY 2013 Rockstar HAVE 11,4 MILLIONS LESS OF POTENTIAL SALES THAN IN FALL 2012!
"That was the weakest May since before the PS2 launched in 2000", Gamasutra on May 2012 sales.
The last year of a consoles generation have simply the worst sales of the whole gen.
What significant and consumerist dates R* have in fall 2012 to sell games?
-Black friday ("THE DAY")
-Holidays/Christmas (worldwide celebration)
What significant and consumerist dates there is in early 2013 to sell games?
-Some of you talked about the overshadowing effect of GTA over MP3, overshadowing effect without real info of GTA!
So, can you imagine how GTA V can hurt Bioshock Infinite sales if GTA V is released in march?
-In March GTA V can be hurt by the "contrast effect" of the first next gen games.
-Some of you argumented that 3/4 months are not enough marketing.
Okay, I could write an entire page contradicting this argument. I don't have time for it.
But I go to give you a good example of why this it's stupid: GUILD WARS 2.
Its release date was announced on June 28th and the game will be launched on August 28th.
So, how affect to give the release date only two months before than a game will be launched?
-5º game in the USA Pre-Order Chart.
-Soon after ArenaNet announced the launch date for Guild Wars 2 it was a trending topic on Twitter.
-The third game most anticipated on IGN, the second on Gamespot etc.
In my opinion, early 2013 is simply dumb if you can choose fall 2012.
-11,4 millions less of potential sales
-The last one year of a consoles generation have simply the worst sales of the whole gen
-Worst software sales
-Worst hardware sales
-Thanksgiving, Black friday("THE DAY"), Holidays/Christmas (worldwide celebration).
-"That was the weakest May since before the PS2 launched in 2000", Gamasutra on May 2012 sales.
If GTA V is released by march 2013 will be due to the issues of a huge proyect like this,
but in any way will be due to it's better in business terms than fall 2012.
After 8 months and 10 days Rockstar broke their silence. Rockstar posted an Asked&Answered regarded questions about Max Payne 3, GTA V and a few other games. But a few things are interesting.
|QUOTE (Rockstar Games @ Wednesday, Jul 12 2012, 16:04)|
|We are very busy working on the game! Everything is going well, but the game is a huge project. We should have more information and some new assets for you soon.|
|QUOTE (Rockstar Games @ Wednesday, Jul 12 2012, 16:04)|
|We will try and get some more screens for you soon and then another trailer when we are ready.|
This proved right on August 20st 2012. Rockstar had released three screenshots on the NEWSWIRE and they said they will release another few screenshots IN THE SAME WEEK!
Many people now think that a release in 2012 is impossible because Rockstar wrote this in the Asked&Answered:
|QUOTE (Rockstar Games @ Wednesday, Jul 12 2012, 16:04)|
|We just have not been in a position to show more of the game than the trailer and will not be for a while yet.|
Seriously, that doesn't mean sh*t. You just can't interpret this in any way. After so many years you people have to know that Rockstar don't have a definition for time. They said in January "in a few weeks there will be a second part of the Asked&Answered" about Max Payne 3. "In a few weeks" they said. The A&A came on July 12nd which is 6 months after the announcement of a new A&A. In February they said "New GTA V info in a few months". The GTA info came on July 12nd after 5 months so I mean from the point they said that there will be new info. And that was just two examples of many things that happened in the past. So you can't interpret "...not been in position...show more...for a while yet". That's a fact.
These two pictures from GTA V don't mean anything for TakeTwo's investors. In my opinion this is just a stupid move from Rockstar. It didn't affected their stock a little bit. Many people say that the situation is not bad for TakeTwo and that there is no problem and they even say the investors wouldn't care if TakeTwo won't reach 1.8 billion dollar this fiscal year. So Rockstar can take their time and they won't get in trouble. Wrong! If Rockstar won't release GTA V this fiscal year then the value of the shares will probably sink drastically and they'd risk a takeover by EA or Activision. That wouldn't be a smart move from Rockstar. They would shoot in their own leg. IF GTA V will be delayed to after March 31st 2013 then we'll know it on the last finance conference in early 2013 at very latest if not in November 2012. If we wouldn't hear anything about GTA V and TakeTwo wouldn't lower their predictions then they won't reach the predictions for this fiscal year and it'd be even illegal. But I highly doubt it that they would do this because they would correct them down on the last finance conference this fiscal year at latest. Here's the value of the shares since the start of the existence of TakeTwo in April 1997:
If GTA V really come this year why give Rockstar us no info? I have a answer for this question. Here a past from an interview between Gamasutra and Dan Houser: "In this rare interview, Houser outlines how the company makes its decisions -- from booting Max Payne into the future to deciding not to give players much of a window into its games prior to their release. He also discusses lessons learned from Red Dead Redemption and the creative bible for the Grand Theft Auto series." Click if you want to see the complete interview. And here Strauss Zelnick in 2009:
|QUOTE (Strauss Zelnick - TakeTwo CEO)|
|We're not going to announce it, we're not going to announce when we are going to announce it, and we are not going to announce a strategy about announcing it or about when we are going to announce it either, or about the announcement strategy surrounding the announcement of the strategy.|
GameInformer was always the first magazine that had a exclusive cover for many games from Rockstar in the past. Why will Andy McNamara from GameInformer don't say IF or WHEN we get a cover about GTA V if people ask him?
|QUOTE (Andy McNamara @ GameInformer)|
|I have only confirmed that I am no longer confirming. I want to make sure when/if it happens no one sees it coming.|
To be honest I don't know if we'll EVER see GTA V on the GI cover. Why? Such magazines with stories about the games are just seperate and not a must.
For the people who say "GTA V can't come in 2012 because the game will be rushed...bla bla bla...the later the better for us...": Rockstar WOULD PROBABLY release GTA V in 2012 but that don't have to mean the game is rushed. By the way it must be rembered that Rockstar shouldn't just reach the shares. No. Rockstar must even try to surpass the predictions of TakeTwo. So the game need it's time for making a huge ammount of sales. The sooner the better for Rockstar. And it don't have to mean that they rush GTA V. Rockstar Games is the last company of the world that would rush their games. And you have to know that Rockstar ordered beta-tester in January 2012 for one year. Here is the link for proof: Click!
Here are some links (click on the underlined words):
On September 20th there will be TakeTwo's annual meeting of the stockholders. Rockstar seem to start the viral marketing. The current value of the shares: Here.
And then read these topics: Short but strong marketing campaign and Syncronized strategy or purely anecdotal.
There will be people who say "Yeah, I don't believe this financial crap..." etc. Seriously, these financial things are a big part of every business. Whether the gaming industry, electronic industry, etc.
Edited by Carl CJ Johnsons Brother Brian, 21 August 2012 - 08:18 PM.